Stastny As Good As Gone...

[Al Camino]

I mean Dubois had more defensive zone faceoff starts then Lowry last year. I think the whole Lowry's deployment is so bad that it hurts him is way over blown. He hasn't been used as a hard matchup suppression C in a couple of years now. He's gotten middling deployment and hasn't posted great numbers. Maybe that changes with wingers that better fit him but he hasn't been close to the player he was in 2018 for quite some time.

Performance in the WC aside he's 29 with a lot of hard miles on him with a cap of 3.25 for the next four years. That's a lot of dough for a guy that's going to get you 10-12 goals and not produce piles of offence for linemates. Also will mention I never have been a huge fan so that might color my opinion.

 

[Hobble]

$850K with Colorado incoming.

 

[surixon]

Performance in the WC aside he's 29 with a lot of hard miles on him with a cap of 3.25 for the next four years. That's a lot of dough for a guy that's going to get you 10-12 goals and not produce piles of offence for linemates. Also will mention I never have been a huge fan so that might color my opinion.

I think he's useful in a phyaical/PK role but the role he plays is valued less in today's game. Ideally he's tour 4C and top PK forward.

 

[voyageur]

I think he's useful in a phyaical/PK role but the role he plays is valued less in today's game. Ideally he's tour 4C and top PK forward.

Let's once again go back to the fact that his G/60 5 on 5 was higher than Dubois's. With 20% less offensive zone time. What the Jets need is a winger that can play on his line. Having lost Copp, I'm not that optimistic about Barron, yet, I think he's probably better suited for a 4th line.

Which is what David Gustafsson has been trained for 3 years apprenticeship. PK specialist.

It's funny that the only 2 guys left that we will have that are decent on the draw are Lowry, and Scheifele, if we lose Stastny.

 

[Al Camino]

I think he's useful in a phyaical/PK role but the role he plays is valued less in today's game. Ideally he's tour 4C and top PK forward.

That would be the best spot for him and about 2 years 1.5 AAV less

 

[voyageur]

That would be the best spot for him and about 2 years 1.5 AAV less

You mean the same guy who had more points than Anthony Cirelli in 2021, playing with Copp and Apples. I think you guys need to watch the games, and see what Lowry does that works. Who wins the battles out there.

 

[surixon]

Let's once again go back to the fact that his G/60 5 on 5 was higher than Dubois's. With 20% less offensive zone time. What the Jets need is a winger that can play on his line. Having lost Copp, I'm not that optimistic about Barron, yet, I think he's probably better suited for a 4th line.

Which is what David Gustafsson has been trained for 3 years apprenticeship. PK specialist.

It's funny that the only 2 guys left that we will have that are decent on the draw are Lowry, and Scheifele, if we lose Stastny.

Yes and Dubois assist per 60 was 10x higher the Lowry's. Not sure why you continue to only ever focus on goals per 60 at 5 on 5 when comparing them.

Sure we will likely see him get another opportunity at 3C to see of he can rebound with different wingers, hopefully he takes it.

 

[Imcanadianeh]

Yes and Dubois assist per 60 was 10x higher the Lowry's. Not sure why you continue to only ever focus on goals per 60 at 5 on 5 when comparing them.

Sure we will likely see him get another opportunity at 3C to see of he can rebound with different wingers, hopefully he takes it.

I mean PLDs A/60 should be astronomically higher than Lowry considering the talent PLD plays with versus what Lowry plays with, now saying that I’m not trying to say Lowry is even remotely close to Being better than PLD.

 

[surixon]

I mean PLDs A/60 should be astronomically higher than Lowry considering the talent PLD plays with versus what Lowry plays with, now saying that I’m not trying to say Lowry is even remotely close to Being better than PLD.

Of course it should be but Lowry's shouldn't be below replacement level either.

Just focusing on goals doesn't paint the whole picture which is what i was getting at.

Lowry was putridly bad offensively this year and his total production rate was worse then average fourth line bad. Hopefully he bounces back especially if the team uses him as it has the last 5 years.

 

[Huffer]

My .02 on Lowry in a Stastny thread:

I'm a big fan of Lowry. Even at his cap hit. We don't have many, if any forwards of his size and playstyle and IMO we need that in the playoffs.

That being said, I'd personally like to see Lowry used in 2 scenarios:

1) As a 4th line C but with the 4th line getting much more minutes than the Jets have run in the past, with guys like Barron, Gus, etc, and playing heavy PK minutes.

or

2) Still as the 3C, but put some talent on his wings and see what can happen if the 3rd line isn't asked to just "check", but given the pieces to also score. I don't have the numbers, but didn't the Copp/Lowry/Tanev line chip in pretty good?

For either scenario we'd need to trade one of the D like Dillon or Schmidt, to put that cap into some more top 6/9 forwards.

 

[Weezeric]

My .02 on Lowry in a Stastny thread:

I'm a big fan of Lowry. Even at his cap hit. We don't have many, if any forwards of his size and playstyle and IMO we need that in the playoffs.

That being said, I'd personally like to see Lowry used in 2 scenarios:

1) As a 4th line C but with the 4th line getting much more minutes than the Jets have run in the past, with guys like Barron, Gus, etc, and playing heavy PK minutes.

or

2) Still as the 3C, but put some talent on his wings and see what can happen if the 3rd line isn't asked to just "check", but given the pieces to also score. I don't have the numbers, but didn't the Copp/Lowry/Tanev line chip in pretty good?

For either scenario we'd need to trade one of the D like Dillon or Schmidt, to put that cap into some more top 6/9 forwards.

Ehlers and Lowry were fantastic together last year.

 

[voyageur]

Of course it should be but Lowry's shouldn't be below replacement level either.

Just focusing on goals doesn't paint the whole picture which is what i was getting at.

Lowry was putridly bad offensively this year and his total production rate was worse then average fourth line bad. Hopefully he bounces back especially if the team uses him as it has the last 5 years.

Now the question is how far below replacement level were Kristian Vesalainen, Austen Poganski, Kristian Reichel, Janssen Harkins? I mean even Svetchnikov finished the final 26 games with 3 points, and -9.

I just look at it this way.

There isn't a matchup that a coach should be afraid of using Adam Lowry in. I've seen the Oilers move Mc David away from him, because he would finish the checks below the goal line. If you can play against the best, you're clearly not a 4th line talent. That would be Riley Nash, who maybe we should have signed, because he looks like he's going to the Cup

I think there's a need to improve on wingers in this organization, it's amazing how much talent has been lost since 2017-2018

 

[LowLefty]

Of course it should be but Lowry's shouldn't be below replacement level either.

Just focusing on goals doesn't paint the whole picture which is what i was getting at.

Lowry was putridly bad offensively this year and his total production rate was worse then average fourth line bad. Hopefully he bounces back especially if the team uses him as it has the last 5 years.

Did all right in the Worlds - and I get that you can't hang your hat on that but maybe he isn't "putridly" bad
with the right coaching and player support.

 

[surixon]

Did all right in the Worlds - and I get that you can't hang your hat on that but maybe he isn't "putridly" bad
with the right coaching and player support.

As I said hopefully he bounces back.

 

[LowLefty]

As I said hopefully he bounces back.

Hopefully he gains from better coaching and better wingers - like most players would.
I don't see this as a bounce back" situation - he does what he's told with the players he lines up with.
If you want more offense out of him, set him up to be more offensive.

He's still a player this team needs IMO -

 

[surixon]

Now the question is how far below replacement level were Kristian Vesalainen, Austen Poganski, Kristian Reichel, Janssen Harkins? I mean even Svetchnikov finished the final 26 games with 3 points, and -9.

I just look at it this way.

There isn't a matchup that a coach should be afraid of using Adam Lowry in. I've seen the Oilers move Mc David away from him, because he would finish the checks below the goal line. If you can play against the best, you're clearly not a 4th line talent. That would be Riley Nash, who maybe we should have signed, because he looks like he's going to the Cup

I think there's a need to improve on wingers in this organization, it's amazing how much talent has been lost since 2017-2018

Honestly this whole talk about crap wingers needs to stop with him.

Of his 941 5 on 5 minutes he played with the following players:

Wheeler 85 minutes
Scheifele 55 minutes
Ehlers 110 minutes
Stastny 159 minutes
Copp 177 minutes
Appelton 180 minutes
Sanford 112 minutes
Vesalainen 177 minutes
Poganski 98 minutes
Harkins 271 minutes

In the end he only got 18% of his ice time with Ves and about 11% with Poganaki. Roughly 75% of it was spent with atleast one NHL player on his line. People just remember the bad players he played with but he got some big pushes with our elite players as well but didn't get it done.

Him and Ehlers had a 42 GF%, him and Scheifele and Wheeler had a 0 GF%, him and Stastny had a 50 GF%, Copp 50 GF%

So really he got a good quarter of his season played with top 6 players and was 12 gf and 18 ga.

 

[Weezeric]

Honestly this whole talk about crap wingers needs to stop with him.

Of his 941 5 on 5 minutes he played with the following players:

Wheeler 85 minutes
Scheifele 55 minutes
Ehlers 110 minutes
Stastny 159 minutes
Copp 177 minutes
Appelton 180 minutes
Sanford 112 minutes
Vesalainen 177 minutes
Poganski 98 minutes
Harkins 271 minutes

In the end he only got 18% of his ice time with Ves and about 21% with Poganaki. Roughly 75 of it was spent with atleast one NHL player o his line. People just remember the bad players he played with but he got some big pushes with our elite players as well but didn't get it done.

Him and Ehlers had a 42 GF%, him and Scheifele and Wheeler had a 0 GF%, him and Stastny had a 50 GF%, Copp 50 GF%

So really he got a good quarter of his season played with top 6 players and was 12 gf and 18 ga.

Lowry and copp together: 60.5 xG%
Lowry and Ehlers: 60.7 xG%
Lowry and Scheifele: 54.7 xG%
Lowry and Stastny: 52.04 xG%

Lowry and Vesalainen: 44.86 xG%
Lowry and Harkins: 45.8 xG%

See a bit of a distinction here?

 

[surixon]

Lowry and copp together: 60.5 xG%
Lowry and Ehlers: 60.7 xG%
Lowry and Scheifele: 54.7 xG%
Lowry and Stastny: 52.04 xG%

Lowry and Vesalainen: 44.86 xG%
Lowry and Harkins: 45.8 xG%

See a bit of a distinction here?

Yeah the underling numbers were good, the production with Lowry and his stone hands was not. Just like his production on the PP was no existint. So sorry he was given ample opportunity to produce with good players and pp time but didn't.

 

[DiggerD]

Yes and Dubois assist per 60 was 10x higher the Lowry's. Not sure why you continue to only ever focus on goals per 60 at 5 on 5 when comparing them.

Sure we will likely see him get another opportunity at 3C to see of he can rebound with different wingers, hopefully he takes it.

So, Dubois’ assists per 60 was 10x higher, playing 100 % of his time with guys like Connor and Ehlers, both of which are legit top 6 players. Lowry played a few games with rotating line mates, several of which (Poganski, Harkins, Sanford, Vesalainen….) wouldn’t be top 6 on Arizona. Somehow you are surprised he didn’t produce at Dubois’ rate??? It is bloody shocking isn’t it?
Lowry is a defender first player, Dubois was obtained to be an offence first, 1B centre. Hell of a comparison, using those 2

 

[surixon]

So, Dubois’ assists per 60 was 10x higher, playing 100 % of his time with guys like Connor and Ehlers, both of which are legit top 6 players. Lowry played a few games with rotating line mates, several of which (Poganski, Harkins, Sanford, Vesalainen….) wouldn’t be top 6 on Arizona. Somehow you are surprised he didn’t produce at Dubois’ rate??? It is bloody shocking isn’t it?
Lowry is a defender first player, Dubois was obtained to be an offence first, 1B centre. Hell of a comparison, using those 2

I wasn't the one who brought that comparison up.

 

[DiggerD]

I wasn't the one who brought that comparison up.

You may not have initiated the comparison, but you are happy to go on about how much better Dubois’ production was, as you continue to talk about how garbage Lowry is. You took the time to look up Lowry’s line mates, by minutes, to show he didn’t have crappy wingers. He had 85 minutes with Wheeler and 55 minutes with Schiefele, as a 3rd line left winger, when they were returning from injured reserve. He got 110 minutes with Ehlers, a legit top line winger, but with a 4th line winger running up the other wing. He spent the bulk of the season, with rotating 4th liners, or ‘hopefuls’, like Poganski, Vesalainen, Harkins, etc. Until the deadline deal for Appleton, which actual top 9 forward did he get more than 4-5 consecutive games with? Meanwhile, Dubois was the number one Centre, and played 90% of his time with the Jets’ top wingers. It is no shock that the bulk of his scoring came after mid-February, when he started getting consistency on his wings.
Lowry didn’t impress you on the PP either, in comparison to the other Jets. The down low, net front presence, on the slightly used 2nd PP wasn’t as shiny as the top offensive guys on PP1, who would have thunk it? He was a positive light on the slowly improving Jets PK.
As far as the comments that he is no longer the shut down guy, and hasn’t been for 2-3 years. He sure played that role against the Oilers. It’s true, he hasn’t produced like 2016-17, but unlike the big names, he has consistently seen his wingers change.

 

[surixon]

You may not have initiated the comparison, but you are happy to go on about how much better Dubois’ production was, as you continue to talk about how garbage Lowry is. You took the time to look up Lowry’s line mates, by minutes, to show he didn’t have crappy wingers. He had 85 minutes with Wheeler and 55 minutes with Schiefele, as a 3rd line left winger, when they were returning from injured reserve. He got 110 minutes with Ehlers, a legit top line winger, but with a 4th line winger running up the other wing. He spent the bulk of the season, with rotating 4th liners, or ‘hopefuls’, like Poganski, Vesalainen, Harkins, etc. Until the deadline deal for Appleton, which actual top 9 forward did he get more than 4-5 consecutive games with? Meanwhile, Dubois was the number one Centre, and played 90% of his time with the Jets’ top wingers. It is no shock that the bulk of his scoring came after mid-February, when he started getting consistency on his wings.
Lowry didn’t impress you on the PP either, in comparison to the other Jets. The down low, net front presence, on the slightly used 2nd PP wasn’t as shiny as the top offensive guys on PP1, who would have thunk it? He was a positive light on the slowly improving Jets PK.
As far as the comments that he is no longer the shut down guy, and hasn’t been for 2-3 years. He sure played that role against the Oilers. It’s true, he hasn’t produced like 2016-17, but unlike the big names, he has consistently seen his wingers change.

Yeah I brought up linemates because people continue to say he played with nothing but crap and that is the reason he stunk. He predominantly played his normal role with his normal caliber linemate (Copp, Appelton, Sanford). Yeah he had a stretch with shit linemates but that was offset by a stretch with top 6 linemates. It equals out.

He doesn't have the hands to play that role and his lack of production on the pp is proof of that. The point was he got placed in situations where he could put up points and didn't.

Yes he's good on the PK, never said anything about taking him off it.

 

[voyageur]

So, Dubois’ assists per 60 was 10x higher, playing 100 % of his time with guys like Connor and Ehlers, both of which are legit top 6 players. Lowry played a few games with rotating line mates, several of which (Poganski, Harkins, Sanford, Vesalainen….) wouldn’t be top 6 on Arizona. Somehow you are surprised he didn’t produce at Dubois’ rate??? It is bloody shocking isn’t it?
Lowry is a defender first player, Dubois was obtained to be an offence first, 1B centre. Hell of a comparison, using those 2

it's the XG that still gets to me. The way I see it if a player like Dubois takes 62% offensive zone draws vs. defensive, his Corsi numbers should be near 62%, and the corresponding stats high. Because it's easier to shoot from inside the zone than outside.

Whereas Lowry at 42% offensive zone should have numbers that give up more shots, from defending, and the challenge to get to the other zone to get a shot. So Lowry's numbers correspondingly aren't that bad.
And there is a lot of neutral zone starts for any player, which is the grey area of battlezone.

I think these same advanced stats had Nate Thompson as pure bush leaguer player that I remember hearing incessantly. But turns out that Perreault-Thompson-Lewis may have been the most effective 4th line the Jets ever had from a shutdown perspective. So I have a lot of sceptiscim of the statistical purity of judgment.

Obviously Dubois is a strong player. Wins puck battles. And Connor's highest goal scoring total is an endorsement to some of his work.

I'd say Lowry was doing ok, from a defensive standpoint until injury affected the quality of his linemates. I look at 2021 Lowry as a more reasonable objective, since RW was a position of weakness in this organization that wasn't addressed until the Appleton trade this year. Finding a Copp like player though to complete the line is probably a struggle. And something not yet within the organization. My hopes are high for both Barron and Torgersson, but taking the next step is something that takes patience.

In any situation if the Jets move on from Stastny it's probably a good thing, because I don't think he's a winger that can produce any sort of identity, especially if that identity is speed, though I really liked Ehlers-Stastny-Scheifele down the stretch, and having Stastny take care of some of the defensive responsibility gave Scheifele more offensive liberty, and some positive results.

 

[WolfHouse]

it's the XG that still gets to me. The way I see it if a player like Dubois takes 62% offensive zone draws vs. defensive, his Corsi numbers should be near 62%, and the corresponding stats high. Because it's easier to shoot from inside the zone than outside.

Whereas Lowry at 42% offensive zone should have numbers that give up more shots, from defending, and the challenge to get to the other zone to get a shot. So Lowry's numbers correspondingly aren't that bad.
And there is a lot of neutral zone starts for any player, which is the grey area of battlezone.

I think these same advanced stats had Nate Thompson as pure bush leaguer player that I remember hearing incessantly. But turns out that Perreault-Thompson-Lewis may have been the most effective 4th line the Jets ever had from a shutdown perspective. So I have a lot of sceptiscim of the statistical purity of judgment.

Obviously Dubois is a strong player. Wins puck battles. And Connor's highest goal scoring total is an endorsement to some of his work.

I'd say Lowry was doing ok, from a defensive standpoint until injury affected the quality of his linemates. I look at 2021 Lowry as a more reasonable objective, since RW was a position of weakness in this organization that wasn't addressed until the Appleton trade this year. Finding a Copp like player though to complete the line is probably a struggle. And something not yet within the organization. My hopes are high for both Barron and Torgersson, but taking the next step is something that takes patience.

In any situation if the Jets move on from Stastny it's probably a good thing, because I don't think he's a winger that can produce any sort of identity, especially if that identity is speed, though I really liked Ehlers-Stastny-Scheifele down the stretch, and having Stastny take care of some of the defensive responsibility gave Scheifele more offensive liberty, and some positive results.

Its hilarious watching you use XG to criticize Dubois and somehow defend Scheifele on another thread by ignoring XG.

 

[Adam da bomb]

it's the XG that still gets to me. The way I see it if a player like Dubois takes 62% offensive zone draws vs. defensive, his Corsi numbers should be near 62%, and the corresponding stats high. Because it's easier to shoot from inside the zone than outside.

Whereas Lowry at 42% offensive zone should have numbers that give up more shots, from defending, and the challenge to get to the other zone to get a shot. So Lowry's numbers correspondingly aren't that bad.
And there is a lot of neutral zone starts for any player, which is the grey area of battlezone.

I think these same advanced stats had Nate Thompson as pure bush leaguer player that I remember hearing incessantly. But turns out that Perreault-Thompson-Lewis may have been the most effective 4th line the Jets ever had from a shutdown perspective. So I have a lot of sceptiscim of the statistical purity of judgment.

Obviously Dubois is a strong player. Wins puck battles. And Connor's highest goal scoring total is an endorsement to some of his work.

I'd say Lowry was doing ok, from a defensive standpoint until injury affected the quality of his linemates. I look at 2021 Lowry as a more reasonable objective, since RW was a position of weakness in this organization that wasn't addressed until the Appleton trade this year. Finding a Copp like player though to complete the line is probably a struggle. And something not yet within the organization. My hopes are high for both Barron and Torgersson, but taking the next step is something that takes patience.

In any situation if the Jets move on from Stastny it's probably a good thing, because I don't think he's a winger that can produce any sort of identity, especially if that identity is speed, though I really liked Ehlers-Stastny-Scheifele down the stretch, and having Stastny take care of some of the defensive responsibility gave Scheifele more offensive liberty, and some positive results.

Thompson was bush league Lewis and Perrault were really great for 4th liners.