Stastny As Good As Gone...

[Channelcat]

Should have traded him at tdl

Yup. Should have dumped everyone. It clearly wasn't happening.

 

[voyageur]

I know that we have fundamentally differing views on how Lowry might best be deployed on this team - and that`s perfectly fine, of course. We share a common view that he has the physical tools to play a highly effective defensive game, moreso than others on the roster. But I am not wedded to the thought that he MUST play as a C in order to add value to the team. In fact, I believe the opposite.

There was missed opportunity to try alternative 3rd line arrangements with Stastny at C season this past season .Of course, the objective would have been to search for a balanced 3rd line, not a shutdown line as you continue to focus on.

There was the stretch where Lowry played wing with Scheifele and Wheeler when Mau wanted to keep the top 6 who were clicking together. Didn't last long. For whatever reason.

All season long the Jets had a top 8 with #9 being in contention. Early on Svetchnikov took the top 9 role, but he faded as the season went on. Every single other player that competed for a top 9 spot was worse than Lowry.

Not what makes Lowry a good matchup centre. He's big, he's strong, he skates well, he's good on the draw, he supports the defense, and plays behind the goal line to break up the cycle. I'd say that Stastny has all those traits minus skating, which may cause him to chase plays more.

I know there is talk of balance and some posters have other successful models on their mind and point to the Jets success with 4 lines. But both the Jets best years came with Adam Lowry as a shutdown centre in a 3c role right up until the trade deadline, so in order to be in a position to trade the Jets needed someone to get them there. And both seasons Bryan Little was the fall guy not Lowry.

I still think the big guy gets the rawest of deals because of the way advanced stats get interpreted. And what has become a weak winger group at the prospective level, which hasn't hit the stars so much. I'm sure if someone did a deep dive into Dubois taking the same defensive zone draws Lowry did, the Corsi, XG whatever would be in the crapper in a theory that is relative.

Scheifele would be interesting in comparison too, if someone took the time to extrapolate data based on zone time and Corsi related stats. The mere fact that Adam Lowry has to take so many d-zone draws is a testament to a failure from our top 6 to change the possession arrow, the nice 2 shots on, 1 against looks good on paper, but if you went from offensive zone to defensive zone in that shift, that's not a good shift in theory.

Anyways, I have a strategic view of players that many will not find concord with, and I am at peace with that.

I think the Jets go into next year with Dubois and Scheifele as 1A and 1B, Lowry as 3C, Gustafsson as 4c, and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if the Jets go after a guy like Derek Stepan to be a 4RW/4C, to address the PK.

 

[surixon]

There was the stretch where Lowry played wing with Scheifele and Wheeler when Mau wanted to keep the top 6 who were clicking together. Didn't last long. For whatever reason.

All season long the Jets had a top 8 with #9 being in contention. Early on Svetchnikov took the top 9 role, but he faded as the season went on. Every single other player that competed for a top 9 spot was worse than Lowry.

Not what makes Lowry a good matchup centre. He's big, he's strong, he skates well, he's good on the draw, he supports the defense, and plays behind the goal line to break up the cycle. I'd say that Stastny has all those traits minus skating, which may cause him to chase plays more.

I know there is talk of balance and some posters have other successful models on their mind and point to the Jets success with 4 lines. But both the Jets best years came with Adam Lowry as a shutdown centre in a 3c role right up until the trade deadline, so in order to be in a position to trade the Jets needed someone to get them there. And both seasons Bryan Little was the fall guy not Lowry.

I still think the big guy gets the rawest of deals because of the way advanced stats get interpreted. And what has become a weak winger group at the prospective level, which hasn't hit the stars so much. I'm sure if someone did a deep dive into Dubois taking the same defensive zone draws Lowry did, the Corsi, XG whatever would be in the crapper in a theory that is relative.

Scheifele would be interesting in comparison too, if someone took the time to extrapolate data based on zone time and Corsi related stats. The mere fact that Adam Lowry has to take so many d-zone draws is a testament to a failure from our top 6 to change the possession arrow, the nice 2 shots on, 1 against looks good on paper, but if you went from offensive zone to defensive zone in that shift, that's not a good shift in theory.

Anyways, I have a strategic view of players that many will not find concord with, and I am at peace with that.

I think the Jets go into next year with Dubois and Scheifele as 1A and 1B, Lowry as 3C, Gustafsson as 4c, and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if the Jets go after a guy like Derek Stepan to be a 4RW/4C, to address the PK.

I mean Dubois had more defensive zone faceoff starts then Lowry last year. I think the whole Lowry's deployment is so bad that it hurts him is way over blown. He hasn't been used as a hard matchup suppression C in a couple of years now. He's gotten middling deployment and hasn't posted great numbers. Maybe that changes with wingers that better fit him but he hasn't been close to the player he was in 2018 for quite some time.

 

[Pongs21]

As good as he was last year, I'm okay with him not coming back. The younger core is starting to gain it's voice. Think it's time to bring some younger fresh blood in

 

[Adam da bomb]

Yup. Should have dumped everyone. It clearly wasn't happening.

Everyone else isn’t a ufa and by the sounds of it here he has no plans to come back so should have got something a 3rd or 4th when they could.

 

[DRW204]

There was the stretch where Lowry played wing with Scheifele and Wheeler when Mau wanted to keep the top 6 who were clicking together. Didn't last long. For whatever reason.

All season long the Jets had a top 8 with #9 being in contention. Early on Svetchnikov took the top 9 role, but he faded as the season went on. Every single other player that competed for a top 9 spot was worse than Lowry.

Not what makes Lowry a good matchup centre. He's big, he's strong, he skates well, he's good on the draw, he supports the defense, and plays behind the goal line to break up the cycle. I'd say that Stastny has all those traits minus skating, which may cause him to chase plays more.

I know there is talk of balance and some posters have other successful models on their mind and point to the Jets success with 4 lines. But both the Jets best years came with Adam Lowry as a shutdown centre in a 3c role right up until the trade deadline, so in order to be in a position to trade the Jets needed someone to get them there. And both seasons Bryan Little was the fall guy not Lowry.

I still think the big guy gets the rawest of deals because of the way advanced stats get interpreted. And what has become a weak winger group at the prospective level, which hasn't hit the stars so much. I'm sure if someone did a deep dive into Dubois taking the same defensive zone draws Lowry did, the Corsi, XG whatever would be in the crapper in a theory that is relative.

Scheifele would be interesting in comparison too, if someone took the time to extrapolate data based on zone time and Corsi related stats. The mere fact that Adam Lowry has to take so many d-zone draws is a testament to a failure from our top 6 to change the possession arrow, the nice 2 shots on, 1 against looks good on paper, but if you went from offensive zone to defensive zone in that shift, that's not a good shift in theory.

Anyways, I have a strategic view of players that many will not find concord with, and I am at peace with that.

I think the Jets go into next year with Dubois and Scheifele as 1A and 1B, Lowry as 3C, Gustafsson as 4c, and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if the Jets go after a guy like Derek Stepan to be a 4RW/4C, to address the PK.

The 17-18 version of Lowry is not the same one today. 17-18 he scored better Individually, the line out shot/chanced/scored opponents handedly vs what he's done as of late .

If he was playing at that level yearly there'd be no issues. We are entering the 5th season post that WCF run. Time to consider that performance might not be replicated with high consistency.

 

[voyageur]

I mean Dubois had more defensive zone faceoff starts then Lowry last year. I think the whole Lowry's deployment is so bad that it hurts him is way over blown. He hasn't been used as a hard matchup suppression C in a couple of years now. He's gotten middling deployment and hasn't posted great numbers. Maybe that changes with wingers that better fit him but he hasn't been close to the player he was in 2018 for quite some time.

Source? I can't think of that being remotely true. And what's your source for success? I mean 2020 with Gabriel Bourque as Lowry's winger was a struggle. But otherwise he's been solid.

Let's face it guys. Realistically Stastny was carrying us as a 2c in 2021 right through round 1 of the playoffs. And then no one could replace him injured. Or Scheif. Lowry still finished against Montreal with a + beside his name. Now egoes probably shufffled the deck for this year. And Stastny I agree with other people belongs as a centre. Too little, too late.

 

[surixon]

The 17-18 version of Lowry is not the same one today. 17-18 he scored better Individually, the line out shot/chanced/scored opponents handedly vs what he's done as of late .

If he was playing at that level yearly there'd be no issues. We are entering the 5th season post that WCF run. Time to consider that performance might not be replicated with high consistency.

Agreed, we need to stop viewing players through the lens of that team. No one except Helle is really the same player as then. Conner and Ehlers have improved, JoMo has grown into a top pairing role but a number of players like Wheeler, Scheifele, Lowry are worse players then they were back then.

 

[Howard Chuck]

Next year, we won't have either Copp or Stastny as 3C options. Lowry may be the best we have for that job.

Unless you try to run three scoring lines with Perfetti as 3C

 

[DRW204]

Unless you try to run three scoring lines with Perfetti as 3C

this is my ideal to start the year. pair him with a strong play-making vet like Wheeler, who is still a viable top-6er and defensively i think away from scheifele he has some good results (see 19-20 season where he was primarily a 2nd liner). id add more of a shooter on the other side - would probably have to go FA or trade. don't think harkins or appleton are really good fits imo. however this ideal goes against everything the org has done in recent years. could change w/ a new coach, we'll see.

 

[surixon]

Source? I can't think of that being remotely true. And what's your source for success? I mean 2020 with Gabriel Bourque as Lowry's winger was a struggle. But otherwise he's been solid.

Let's face it guys. Realistically Stastny was carrying us as a 2c in 2021 right through round 1 of the playoffs. And then no one could replace him injured. Or Scheif. Lowry still finished against Montreal with a + beside his name. Now egoes probably shufffled the deck for this year. And Stastny I agree with other people belongs as a centre. Too little, too late.

Natural statrick. Dubois was on the ice for 316 defensive zone facoffs whereas Lowry was on the ice for 311.

Lowry did have more defensive zone starts(whatever that means) at 163 to Dubois 139 but Dubois was still top 5 on the team in that regard. The point is they didn't shy away from running Dubois heavily in the dzone.

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

www.naturalstattrick.com

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Unless you try to run three scoring lines with Perfetti as 3C

Yes, that is another possibility. But we still don't know whether or not Perfetti is an NHL C. Or whether the Jets intend to develop him as a C.

There are all kinds of possibilities of the Jets coming up with a 3C option other than Lowry. But the possibility remains that he may be the best option now, after losing Copp and Stastny.

 

[Mathil8]

Obviously which coach we get will dictate how our forward lines are structured.

Aside from that, I think it will depend on what they're able to find in free agency/trade this off season. Other than coaching that's the most interesting thing I'm looking forward to seeing unfold this summer. Are we able to get a decent middle 6 winger or two?

 

[voyageur]

Natural statrick. Dubois was on the ice for 316 defensive zone facoffs whereas Lowry was on the ice for 311.

Lowry did have more defensive zone starts(whatever that means) at 163 to Dubois 139 but Dubois was still top 5 on the team in that regard. The point is they didn't shy away from running Dubois heavily in the dzone.

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

www.naturalstattrick.com

Those stats are confusing as hell. How does one take 62.73 % offensive zone starts and have more defensive zone draws than the guy who starts 43.6% of the time. I realize Dubois took more draws 1135 to 1064 over Lowry but most of those were in the offensive zone, since he had the poorest winning %. There's something fishy about those stats.

 

[Mathil8]

Those stats are confusing as hell. How does one take 62.73 % offensive zone starts and have more defensive zone draws than the guy who starts 43.6% of the time. I realize Dubois took more draws 1135 to 1064 over Lowry but most of those were in the offensive zone, since he had the poorest winning %. There's something fishy about those stats.

Adam Lowry: neutral zone specialist

 

[surixon]

Those stats are confusing as hell. How does one take 62.73 % offensive zone starts and have more defensive zone draws than the guy who starts 43.6% of the time. I realize Dubois took more draws 1135 to 1064 over Lowry but most of those were in the offensive zone, since he had the poorest winning %. There's something fishy about those stats.

He may not have took all of the faceoffs in the dzone. JoMo has the highest but obviously doesn't take any draws. Those stats aren't for how many faceoffs per zone that the player himself took just how much they were on the ice for.

Edit NHL.com has Lowry at 491 defensive zone faceoffs but that will include probably the bulk of the 210 faceoffs he took while short handed. Dubois only took 2 short handed draws and has 313 defensive zone draws. So it still checks our that Dubois took more defensive zone faceoffs then Lowry.

@voyageur I think the discrepancy comes due to special teams faceoffs. Dubois rarely took PP draws whereas Lowry had a good 20% of his draws on the PK. So Dubois took far more ES draws then Lowry 1055 to 802.

 

[DRW204]

naturalstattrick has a glossary fyi
i had the same question about zone and shift starts too years ago

Natural Stat Trick - Glossary

 

[surixon]

naturalstattrick has a glossary fyi
i had the same question about zone and shift starts too years ago

Natural Stat Trick - Glossary

I still have a hard time reconciling those definitions to the faceoff numbers.

 

[voyageur]

Adam Lowry: neutral zone specialist

Except when you factor special teams into it, it's Adam Lowry defensive zone beast, Pierre Luc Dubois gravy train specialist.

Those stats are still dubious to me.

 

[GreenLine]

The Jets are in shambles so of course he's gone. He'll go to Tampa or Colorado for league minimum if he wants to win, or maybe back to St. Louis for a bit more money.

 

[heilongjetsfan]

Pretty interesting that everyone seems to see this differently than I do. When we didn't trade him, I felt like that meant we felt pretty sure we'd get him to sign pretty cheap. Now what I hear is him saying he's inclined to stay so long as the plan is to have a competitive hockey team.

I've been pencilling Stats in on my imaginary lineups, maybe I should try a few with Gus in his place.

 

[surixon]

Pretty interesting that everyone seems to see this differently than I do. When we didn't trade him, I felt like that meant we felt pretty sure we'd get him to sign pretty cheap. Now what I hear is him saying he's inclined to stay so long as the plan is to have a competitive hockey team.

I've been pencilling Stats in on my imaginary lineups, maybe I should try a few with Gus in his place.

I think he was kept to try to keep the room as functional as possible.

 

[Channelcat]

Everyone else isn’t a ufa and by the sounds of it here he has no plans to come back so should have got something a 3rd or 4th when they could.

Yup...we only had 2 UFA (+Comrie), but I thought we should have looked at moving a few other vets. Dillon, possibly Schmidt.

 

[Eyeseeing]

The Jets are in shambles so of course he's gone. He'll go to Tampa or Colorado for league minimum if he wants to win, or maybe back to St. Louis for a bit more money.

I don’t think shambles is what I’d say but I get the sentiment.
IF it’s a coach he’s may believe in I could see him coming back.
He’s been around the block and I believe the right name would have him back.
This team isn’t bad but the dysfunction is.

 

[heilongjetsfan]

Yup...we only had 2 UFA (+Comrie), but I thought we should have looked at moving a few other vets. Dillon, possibly Schmidt.

I feel like moving on from both would be ideal. Dillon brings some needed grit, but he's blocking one of Samberg or Heinola. Schmidt is fine imho, but nobody on the right side is a first pairing guy. Probably any of them could play with a really strong 1LD, but we don't really have that either. JMo is pretty good, but not to the point that him and any one of our RD should be out there for 30 minutes a night against the league's top players.

I miss Buff so much.