Stan Kroenke joins real estate group building NHL/NBA quality arena in San Diego

[Tawnos]

I am well aware of how big the SoCal region is, but it is not a question of how many humans live there so much as how many of them are hockey fans. And while there are enough to support two teams, in practice this means one team with a very small and niche fanbase and one team with a moderate to large fanbase. If the Ducks were in San Diego, you would have one team with a moderately sized fanbase and one team with a consistently large fanbase.

This also plays into the larger question of venues going on... how much utility is there for an OC arena going forward once San Diego has a modern venue and the Clippers have their arena completed? Keep in mind that the Honda Center is soon to be the oldest venue in the NHL once Calgary builds their new arena... now might be a good time to look at alternatives going forward

It 100% is a matter of how many humans are there. The more people, the lower the portion of them you need to make a successful organization and the higher the potential is as more and more inroads into the market are made. You can’t discount the need for the effectiveness of two prongs of those inroads compared to one, even if one of the two has less reach than the other.

I don’t think the Clippers arena is going to affect Honda Center much, mostly because it’s like a block away from the Forum, making it pretty close to a status quo situation, and also because it’ll make 4 in the market. That’s probably about right (NYC market supports 5).

 

[aqib]

But a ton of it has to do with things that are immaterial to the convo: In your hypothetical, he's not doing all five of those cities in the midwest.... because he wants to do a 20-city tour and not spend like 10 months straight on tour.

That really has nothing to do with what arenas exist and don't exist, it's the artist picking the length of the tour.

Artists DON'T book their tours to go UBS Arena, MSG, Barclay's, Prudential Center because it's silly. (And there's also non-sports arenas, too).

I'll use Pearl Jam as an example because I know their fan base is insane enough to track data on every tour and every venue they've ever been to. They've played TWENTY ONE New York Metro venues in their career: 8 Venues in Manhattan, 6 in New Jersey, 5 on Long Island, 2 in Queens.

They're either going to say "When can we play MSG?" and build their tour around that, OR they're going to say "Which venue can we get in between the Boston and Philly shows?"


You know the scene in Almost Famous, where Jimmy Fallon is telling them he know show to not pay for the ice under floor of the arena? There's stuff like that -- which arenas can your show FIT INTO with one set, no modifications. Who's got ridiculously impractical load-in and who's the easiest. There's also PERSONAL and individual band/artist history... Those guys are jerks no one likes dealing with; there's a local noise ordinance, our lead singer is banned from playing there because he started a riot.

What other sports arenas exist is like such a non-factor.

No matter what the reasoning is, when you have limited number of dates venues within a region regardless of whether it's NYC metro area, the Midwest, or Southern California compete with each other. So from that stand point a venue in San Diego will be competing with the Honda Center for events.

 

[KevFu]

No matter what the reasoning is, when you have limited number of dates venues within a region regardless of whether it's NYC metro area, the Midwest, or Southern California compete with each other. So from that stand point a venue in San Diego will be competing with the Honda Center for events.

Who cares? What's your point here? Even if I accept your ridiculous premise that these venues are in cut-throat competition trying to lure artists and events to their venues... how does this change anyone's thinking regarding building an arena in San Diego?

I can't even remember WHY we're arguing over this.

 

[aqib]

Who cares? What's your point here? Even if I accept your ridiculous premise that these venues are in cut-throat competition trying to lure artists and events to their venues... how does this change anyone's thinking regarding building an arena in San Diego?

I can't even remember WHY we're arguing over this.

We were arguing over whether or not the venue in San Diego would be competing with the Honda Center for events. Unfortunately Killian is no longer here because he worked in this space but yes venues are in competition for acts. That's not hard to understand.

 

[TheLegend]

We were arguing over whether or not the venue in San Diego would be competing with the Honda Center for events. Unfortunately Killian is no longer here because he worked in this space but yes venues are in competition for acts. That's not hard to understand.

The current arena in San Diego competes now. But it’s nearly 60 years old (opened in 1966), and is out-of-date architecturally, and is undersized (14,500) by today’s standards.

Remodeling it isn’t an option. It needs to be replaced, whether you’re going to host a major pro sports franchise or not. But it doesn’t hurt to have that option.

 

[aqib]

The current arena in San Diego competes now. But it’s nearly 60 years old (opened in 1966), and is out-of-date architecturally, and is undersized (14,500) by today’s standards.

Remodeling it isn’t an option. It needs to be replaced, whether you’re going to host a major pro sports franchise or not. But it doesn’t hurt to have that option.

Yeah no disputing that. The argument started when we were talking about the size and I was saying it had to be full sized (over 17K) in order to attract events because it would be competing with Honda Center 90 minutes away and you can see where it went from there.

 

[TheLegend]

Yeah no disputing that. The argument started when we were talking about the size and I was saying it had to be full sized (over 17K) in order to attract events because it would be competing with Honda Center 90 minutes away and you can see where it went from there.

16k is what I’m reading this arena is shooting for and that isn’t all that bad a number.

For a concert venue I guess it would depend on what specific acts would demand a set minimum a venue could be and make the show profitable for all parties.

 

[aqib]

16k is what I’m reading this arena is shooting for and that isn’t all that bad a number.

For a concert venue I guess it would depend on what specific acts would demand a set minimum a venue could be and make the show profitable for all parties.

I had read smaller if the NHL/NBA isn't coming. They run the risk of missing out in the future if the venue isn't NHL/NBA ready. They could do something like what OKC did and build an arena that can have amenities added if a pro team becomes available.

 

[StreetHawk]

I had read smaller if the NHL/NBA isn't coming. They run the risk of missing out in the future if the venue isn't NHL/NBA ready. They could do something like what OKC did and build an arena that can have amenities added if a pro team becomes available.

SD is a much larger city than the ones that are housing the AHL teams in Ontario, Bakersfield, Stockton, and even others like Coachella Valley, and Fresno what are around the 10K or under range. Would not expect them to go that small. But, no need for 18K if they can't land NBA/NHL down the line.

Kroenke can find out what the NBA/NHL options are for SD. Then build accordingly.

 

[KevFu]

We were arguing over whether or not the venue in San Diego would be competing with the Honda Center for events. Unfortunately Killian is no longer here because he worked in this space but yes venues are in competition for acts. That's not hard to understand.

But why are we arguing that? Who cares if they do or don't? They're building an arena for a hockey team that exists, or an NHL team or NBA team that could move there, and to have a place to compete (or not compete) for events.

Whether you think there aren't enough events to go around or whatever your stance is, it's completely immaterial to the project. They're going to build an arena and fill it for events and make a lot of money; or they're not going to open their doors on a given day because no one is offering a rental fee that ensures they profit.

 

[Tawnos]

I had read smaller if the NHL/NBA isn't coming. They run the risk of missing out in the future if the venue isn't NHL/NBA ready. They could do something like what OKC did and build an arena that can have amenities added if a pro team becomes available.

I thought a couple of pages back it was mentioned that the 16k is the minimum if the leagues aren't coming and plans exist for larger if one of them is. Or maybe not the minimum, but the size range that's not dependent on a major league.

 

[Joe from Maine]

What do you think an NFL expansion fee would be - $5 billion?

$5 billion divided 32 ways is $156 million dollars for each team. I think the league would put up with unequal alignment for that kind of money.

True, however they would have to split the TV money 34 ways instead of 32. On 11 billion dollars a year (340 plus million a team) each franchise would get 20 million less per year. After 8 years they are even then the teams start losing money. The NHL is different as each team gets 30 million for team from Sportnet/Turner/ESPN. Maybe the Rangers and Maple Leafs get another 70 million for local TV for a total of 100 million. Most teams are in the 50-60 million dollar range. I don't think the NFL will expand because of giving up to much of a piece of the television pie.

 

[willy702]

You posters are gullible. Stan Kroenke is all you need to know here. That whole throw in of we could host an NBA or NHL team is priceless but also worthless. He's not getting a team there. There is something of a protected market environment there, the Lakers and Clippers are way too powerful to allow another NBA team in. The Ducks are going to put up a fight for San Diego. The Kings won't care too much but the Ducks will. And the thing most of you don't know or understand is that while San Diego is beautiful and a great place to live, the money is in Orange County. That's why the Sacramento Kings were trying to move there until the Lakers quietly made sure it didn't happen. Orange County is where the money is and where the business customers are. San Diego pales in comparison. Yes they really need an events venue and with it I'm sure many acts would go there too. None are going to overlook Orange County to do it.

Back to Stan, this is his method. He uses sports to get real estate deals. Did it seem to you he really cared much when he picked up the NBA Championship ? He said nice things with the Stanley Cup but no one thinks of him as the teams real owner. Dude never shows up at games. All he does is uses these teams or the allure of teams to get land entitled and then makes a handsome profit on the real estate. Throwing out that carrot got so many chasing after it but there's no substance to it. If anything he could pivot and turn that into an MLS stadium for the coming team but he doesn't need it. A proper events arena that could host occasional sporting events would fit the market just fine. Think preseason games and NCAA tournament.

 

[KevFu]

True, however they would have to split the TV money 34 ways instead of 32. On 11 billion dollars a year (340 plus million a team) each franchise would get 20 million less per year. After 8 years they are even then the teams start losing money. The NHL is different as each team gets 30 million for team from Sportnet/Turner/ESPN. Maybe the Rangers and Maple Leafs get another 70 million for local TV for a total of 100 million. Most teams are in the 50-60 million dollar range. I don't think the NFL will expand because of giving up to much of a piece of the television pie.

Well, I agree with your general viewpoint that the NFL has very little reason to expand; but I would point out that the TV deal likely gets slightly bigger by adding teams. How much the question. The fact that they were willing to go so long without teams in LA shows how little the local market size actually matters to them.

When the NFL added Baltimore (relo), Carolina, Jacksonville, and Tennessee (relo) to go from 28 to 32 teams... they added about 9 million in today's population to the group of markets with teams. (I'd say more with like Memphis being Titans fans, Raleigh being Panthers fans).

Their TV money did grow, but it's going to grow anyway because of how money vs time works.

Assuming Riverside, Orlando, Columbus, San Antonio, Austin, Sacramento and Oakland are off the table based on proximity to other teams (and powerful owners)...

your US candidates are really: #18 San Diego (3.5), #21 St. Louis (2.8), #25 Portland (2.5) and cities under 2 million. That's not worth it. A new San Diego team might not grab all the former Chargers fans. St. Louis and Portland don't have a "Secondary market" that they bring like Nashville and Charlotte bring their entire states.

Now you wanna talk about Toronto and Vancouver, then I can make a case.

 

[MMC]

 

[aqib]

SD is a much larger city than the ones that are housing the AHL teams in Ontario, Bakersfield, Stockton, and even others like Coachella Valley, and Fresno what are around the 10K or under range. Would not expect them to go that small. But, no need for 18K if they can't land NBA/NHL down the line.

Kroenke can find out what the NBA/NHL options are for SD. Then build accordingly.

The thing is just because an option isn't there now doesn't mean it won't be in the future. OKC was passed over for the NHL and wasn't on the NBA's radar when they broke down on their arena. They eventually got one because they had a venue that could fit.

 

[aqib]

But why are we arguing that? Who cares if they do or don't? They're building an arena for a hockey team that exists, or an NHL team or NBA team that could move there, and to have a place to compete (or not compete) for events.

Whether you think there aren't enough events to go around or whatever your stance is, it's completely immaterial to the project. They're going to build an arena and fill it for events and make a lot of money; or they're not going to open their doors on a given day because no one is offering a rental fee that ensures they profit.

My point was simply if you build it small on the grounds that there is no NBA or NHL team coming right now then you lock yourself out for the life of the arena and you may also be locking yourself out of major acts because there are bigger arenas within 2 hours of San Diego. That's all.

 

[KevFu]

My point was simply if you build it small on the grounds that there is no NBA or NHL team coming right now then you lock yourself out for the life of the arena and you may also be locking yourself out of major acts because there are bigger arenas within 2 hours of San Diego. That's all.

OOOOOHHHH.

I thought you were saying "there's no need to build a big arena because it will lose a "competition" for events to the Honda Center so why bother."

 

[aqib]

OOOOOHHHH.

I thought you were saying "there's no need to build a big arena because it will lose a "competition" for events to the Honda Center so why bother."

Reading is fundamental.

 

[Headshot77]

16,000 seats for junior hockey? in San Diego? Doubtful.

I bet they are trying to build a multipurpose arena that *can* hold NBA or NHL, and they wanted to have a reason for purchasing an ice plant.

 

[Jumptheshark]

34+ teams league here we go...

Shows how desperate the NHL is for money.

NFL 32 teams
NBA 30 teams
MLB 30 teams

all with big money TV contracts--the NHL thinks expanding everywhere will help that. They are wrong

 

[KevFu]

16,000 seats for junior hockey? in San Diego? Doubtful.

I bet they are trying to build a multipurpose arena that *can* hold NBA or NHL, and they wanted to have a reason for purchasing an ice plant.

The AHL San Diego Gulls play in the arena on the West end of the lot that this development is taking place (with the new arena being built on the East end).

 

[KevFu]

Shows how desperate the NHL is for money.

NFL 32 teams
NBA 30 teams
MLB 30 teams

all with big money TV contracts--the NHL thinks expanding everywhere will help that. They are wrong

Your logic is preposterous. You're so, so, so, so close.... and then just shoot yourself in the foot at the end.

NFL 32 teams - 30 different US markets.
NBA 30 teams - 27 different US Markets.
MLB 30 teams - 25 or 26 US markets (Oakland TBD).

And the NHL? 20 US markets before Vegas and Seattle!

If the NHL and NBA had equal popularity, the NHL would only get at most 80% of what the NBA gets, because they only have 80% of the markets the NBA has.

And actually, it's a lot less because Atlanta and Houston are huge; and a bunch of NHL markets are smaller than their NBA counterparts (Raleigh / Charlotte, San Jose / San Francisco). The NBA US markets are about 16-18 million more people in the them than NHL markets.

 

[GreenHornet]

Your logic is preposterous. You're so, so, so, so close.... and then just shoot yourself in the foot at the end.

NFL 32 teams - 30 different US markets.
NBA 30 teams - 27 different US Markets.
MLB 30 teams - 25 or 26 US markets (Oakland TBD).

And the NHL? 20 US markets before Vegas and Seattle!

If the NHL and NBA had equal popularity, the NHL would only get at most 80% of what the NBA gets, because they only have 80% of the markets the NBA has.

And actually, it's a lot less because Atlanta and Houston are huge; and a bunch of NHL markets are smaller than their NBA counterparts (Raleigh / Charlotte, San Jose / San Francisco). The NBA US markets are about 16-18 million more people in the them than NHL markets.

Not to mention that MLB is apparently eyeing expansion to 32.

 

[BKIslandersFan]

The thing is just because an option isn't there now doesn't mean it won't be in the future. OKC was passed over for the NHL and wasn't on the NBA's radar when they broke down on their arena. They eventually got one because they had a venue that could fit.

Correct.

And even if they don't, concerts and other events in San Diego can use that capacity anyway.