Stamkos Debate - PostDeadline 2016

[Babcocks Marner]

Even if he is the '11th' best forward in the game, how often do they one, become a UFA, and two, hail from toronto. You sign Stamkos 100%., no questions asked, not just to score goals, but to LEAD. so the exact opposite of Phil the thrill.

This is a no brainer. All of this cap stuff is BS as well. Chicago is managing fine having not one, but two 10+ million players on their team. Someone said it above, you have to make sure you don't have crappy contracts, the lupols, the bozaks, etc.

The key thing is finding talent that comes cheap to play for you. Again, look at the hawks. Panarin, etc. I have no doubt Hunter and Kyle and Lou can supplement Stamkos with good talent while still managing the cap.

All these naysayers.... give your head a shake, seriously.

You always ask questions.... If not, you end up with Clarkson

They are managing, but barely. They have had some luck, like Keith at super bargain. You will never see a player like Keith making 5.5 at 32 ever again.... these days, he would be in the 8-9 range, which would blow Chicagos cap completely.

They also carry 8 ECLs/Scrubs, which is also damn hard to do. Landed Panarin as a FA, etc.... Chicago is special, and should not be used as an example. Much like Edmonton on the other end. They are the extreme of the extremes.

Also, enough of the if he is worth 9, lets just give him 12, its only +Grabner.... that way of thinking will crush the team in the long run. Take 1-2 mil off Kessel/Phanuef, dare I say Clarkson? It would have made a huge difference in getting better returns, and we probably wouldn't have Horton.

Rather people just stick to the points that he will improve our PP which is the worst in the NHL.... he will be a leader, score goals, insulate the youngins, take media pressure off the youngins, etc. That's his value.

 

[Stephen]

It would be nice if people refrained from using strawmen. No one, and I mean no one, is arguing that Stamkos is not good enough for the Leafs.

It is entirely a cost-benefit analysis.

Well, why don't you do more in depth cost benefit analysis?

Let's conservatively say a quality three man unit forming a top six scoring line is worth $18 million million total. For context, Stamkos, Killorn and Callahan make $16.6 million combined right now in Tampa. That can be:

3 guys making $6 million each.

2 guys making $8 million and 1 guy making $2 million

1 guy making $10 million and 1 guy making $7 milion and 1 guy on a <$1 million ELC.

1 guy making $12 milliom, 11 guy making $5 million and 1 guy on a <$1 million ELC.

A team like Chicago makes Kane work cause they have a Panarin. That's the point of drafting well.

 

[Babcocks Marner]

Well, why don't you do more in depth cost benefit analysis?

Let's conservatively say a quality three man unit forming a top six scoring line is worth $18 million million total. For context, Stamkos, Killorn and Callahan make $16.6 million combined right now in Tampa. That can be:

3 guys making $6 million each.

2 guys making $8 million and 1 guy making $2 million

1 guy making $10 million and 1 guy making $7 milion and 1 guy on a <$1 million ELC.

1 guy making $12 milliom, 11 guy making $5 million and 1 guy on a <$1 million ELC.

A team like Chicago makes Kane work cause they have a Panarin. That's the point of drafting well.

F/A signing mate.

 

[Stephen]

F/A signing mate.

Ok even better. Panarin's not even an ELC and it's working out well.

 

[Babcocks Marner]

Ok even better. Panarin's not even an ELC and it's working out well.

He is ELC. 24yo (now) was signed as FA out of the KHL.

The better argument is.... He chose Chicago because of the pedigree of the team.

 

[johnny_rudeboy]

If Stamkos wants to sign with us we will sign him. He is not the kind of player you turn down. Legit superstar, we have not had one since Sundin. Stamkos is one and two levels ahead of Kessel and Phaneuf.

 

[Stephen]

He is ELC. 24yo (now) was signed as FA out of the KHL.

The better argument is.... He chose Chicago because of the pedigree of the team.

Why are you getting lost in details?

Point is he's cheap and productive. Combined with a guy who is expensive and productive you have a unit that is productive and paid a fair cost.

 

[Gallagbi]

They also carry 8 ECLs/Scrubs, which is also damn hard to do. Landed Panarin as a FA, etc.... Chicago is special, and should not be used as an example. Much like Edmonton on the other end. They are the extreme of the extremes.

Isn't the goal to be special and an extreme case? That's how teams win cups.


I agree you don't overpay him, you offer a solid deal, work the hometown angle and hope he comes here. You can't blow your cap out of the water on him or any other player, but I'm not convinced he'll want 11+ from the Leafs either.

 

[Babcocks Marner]

Why are you getting lost in details?

Point is he's cheap and productive. Combined with a guy who is expensive and productive you have a unit that is productive and paid a fair cost.

Huh? You said he was drafted, I corrected you.... You said he is not ECL, I corrected you. Sorry, I like facts.

 

[Muston Atthews]

Isn't the goal to be special and an extreme case? That's how teams win cups.


I agree you don't overpay him, you offer a solid deal, work the hometown angle and hope he comes here. You can't blow your cap out of the water on him or any other player, but I'm not convinced he'll want 11+ from the Leafs either.

We won't be special or an extreme case until we can lock up core players to contracts that directly cause the next lock out

 

[Stephen]

Huh? You said he was drafted, I corrected you.... You said he is not ECL, I corrected you. Sorry, I like facts.

I'm going to give you two gold stars for nailing me on that technicality, but in return I want you to actually acknowledge that a team that finds cheap talent can reasonably build a scoring unit and team that isn't in cap death.

Thank you.

 

[Muston Atthews]

I'm going to give you two gold stars for nailing me on that technicality, but in return I want you to actually acknowledge that a team that finds cheap talent can reasonably build a scoring unit and team that isn't in cap death.

Thank you.

They also benefit from now illegal contracts

 

[Fogelhund]

Panarin? Karlsson? double check your list. Surprised not to see Johnny T. Or Toews?? what do you man by 'brought more to the table'

How many of these players, will EVER become a UFA. You take them when you get them.

Johnny T and Toews are also having down years... Toews, yes should have been on the list. Karlsson... yes, the good natured jab at putting him on a list of forwards... Bring more to the table... mostly more complete games than Stamkos has displayed most of the year... more than just a shot.

I'd love to have Stamkos.. but not at $12M... I'm not sure his real value, with UFA premium... I thought it was less before, but he's played better as of late... let's see how he closes out the year. I just cannot get behind sign at all costs.

 

[Babcocks Marner]

Isn't the goal to be special and an extreme case? That's how teams win cups.


I agree you don't overpay him, you offer a solid deal, work the hometown angle and hope he comes here. You can't blow your cap out of the water on him or any other player, but I'm not convinced he'll want 11+ from the Leafs either.

Sure... doesn't change the fact. Like I said, they got Keith locked up for 5.5mil, will never happen again. History could have been much different if Keith was post new CBA. Could they have made the same Towes/Kane deals then? I dunno.... be hard.

How many teams could function off of 8 forwards making under 1mil? You better have great D, and better have a great G, and they do. Even with Stamkos, to have a team like Chicago will take us a long time.... We are far away... we have some pieces, but even those pieces are years away from making a large impact.

 

[Faltorvo]

I'm going to give you two gold stars for nailing me on that technicality, but in return I want you to actually acknowledge that a team that finds cheap talent can reasonably build a scoring unit and team that isn't in cap death.

Thank you.

Lupul------ 5.25m cap
Michalek---4m cap
Laich-------4.5m cap

= 13.75m wasted cap space.

say good bye to that

add stammer at 11m

leaves 2.75 million for 2 of the kids coming up

there ya go

all the cap crying solved

 

[Babcocks Marner]

I'm going to give you two gold stars for nailing me on that technicality, but in return I want you to actually acknowledge that a team that finds cheap talent can reasonably build a scoring unit and team that isn't in cap death.

Thank you.

I would not have been snarky, if you hadn't.

When I have I not acknowledged such a thing?

You don't think that I believe having a strong line of ELCs slowly trickling through the team is not important? Cause I think it's VERY important.

 

[Stephen]

Lupul------ 5.25m cap
Michalek---4m cap
Laich-------4.5m cap

= 13.75m wasted cap space.

say good bye to that

add stammer at 11m

leaves 2.75 million for 2 of the kids coming up

there ya go

all the cap crying solved

Add Bozak and Bernier.

 

[Stephen]

I would not have been snarky, if you hadn't.

When I have I not acknowledged such a thing?

You don't think that I believe having a strong line of ELCs slowly trickling through the team is not important? Cause I think it's VERY important.

Can you just comment on the numbers I put in front of you? I don't want to talk about anything else before you do.

 

[Faltorvo]

Add Bozak and Bernier.

and cowen and robidas and greening.

 

[Pookie]

Oh pookie

your black magic does not work on me , I went to hogwarts

It's actually called "mathematics" and has roots back to early civilizations who looked for a way to categorize and develop ways of describing their world. It's not to be feared. Embrace science.

his 43 goals last season , good for 2nd in the league and 2nd in even strength goals, does not concern me one little bit.

I'm confident that the great minds running our team are as smart as those running team Canada.

Hopefully he continues to outpoint… sorry out-goal… Mike Hoffman. It's been a long time since we've had a Top 5 Top 10 Top 15 Top 20 Top 25 forward.

Who was the last one? Kessel?

 

[WTFMAN99]

Last couple of games (minus the Leaf game) Stamkos has skated much better. Seems like the assurance of not being dealt at the deadline by Yzerman went to his legs and hands.

Seems to have more enthusiasm lately.

 

[Babcocks Marner]

Can you just comment on the numbers I put in front of you? I don't want to talk about anything else before you do.

Your numbers are fine. I never argued your numbers.

We all know Stamkos can fit. The argument is at what price is right? that is 90% of discussion.

Do you want Stamkos at 14mil? Everyone has a cut off.

 

[Peace Frog]

There are several teams that have multiple star players and manage to fit them all under the cap. Chicago, LA, Pitts, SJ, NYR.......

We have a management that is arguably second to none, so I think it's safe to say that they will be able to manage the cap after bringing one or possibly even two star players.

The usual argument I hear about paying Stamkos big coin, is that we'll be screwed when the kids get to the point that they are getting a new contract. The idea is that we won't be able to afford to keep all of them. Perhaps that will be the case, but you're talking at least 3-4 years before we have to deal with that scenario.

The absolute worst case situation, would be that we'd have to trade one, in order to stay withing the cap. If that player is doing well enough to be commanding big money, I imagine we'd get quite the haul back in return. And that's where we want to be at as an organization, imo.

Keep infusing the team with young talent, and when it gets to a point that we can't afford to keep them, we flip them for picks and good young talent. Keeping the cycle going and staying competitive with the best in the league while doing so.

Look at the teams that are winning Cups now; they all follow this sort of organizational map. We should be so lucky as to be in their position!

 

[Gary Nylund]

Even if he is the '11th' best forward in the game, how often do they one, become a UFA, and two, hail from toronto. You sign Stamkos 100%., no questions asked, not just to score goals, but to LEAD. so the exact opposite of Phil the thrill.

This is a no brainer. All of this cap stuff is BS as well. Chicago is managing fine having not one, but two 10+ million players on their team. Someone said it above, you have to make sure you don't have crappy contracts, the lupols, the bozaks, etc.

The key thing is finding talent that comes cheap to play for you. Again, look at the hawks. Panarin, etc. I have no doubt Hunter and Kyle and Lou can supplement Stamkos with good talent while still managing the cap.

All these naysayers.... give your head a shake, seriously.

The attitude that we sign him 100% without asking questions (about salary for example) and not caring about the cap hit is indeed a "no brainer", but not in the way you think it is.

Your numbers are fine. I never argued your numbers.

We all know Stamkos can fit. The argument is at what price is right? that is 90% of discussion.

Do you want Stamkos at 14mil? Everyone has a cut off.

Apparently not everyone, see the post above for one example, there have been many others.

I really like the idea of Stamkos in Toronto but if we sign him for 12m, I'm gonna puke. Luckily I think our management is much too smart for that to happen.

I predict we do sign him, and it won't cost a penny more than 10.5m per year. Hopefully he takes a home town discount and signs for 9m. If he does insist on 10.5m per year I wouldn't be surprised if we decided to pass but I do believe that is the absolute maximum our brass will even consider paying.

 

[TorontoTrades]

I wouldn't go over 10 mill a year and would feel most comfortable with him at 9.5

If we get Matthews I would not pursue Stamkos as you would be paying him that to be a RW after the first year and Matthews and Nylander establish themselves as 1-2