Proposal: St.Louis-Arizona Blockbuster

[PocketNines]

Kyrou certainly has the potential to be that kind of guy, but, he's only 110 games into his career, and has put up a 52 point pace in a covid altered season, and has a good start to this season, which makes it hard to put an accurate value on him today. The Blues, understandably, value him like he's definitely going to his his full potential and have no reason to trade him. But, to a GM trying to acquire him, I don't think he's got that kind of value yet, and still needs to show he can maintain his production this year to get there.

Chychrun, on the other hand, has 300+ games played, which makes him more of a known quantity. Obviously, there's still questions about whether his production this last year was a fluke, and we probably won't get those answered with Arizona tanking, but he's a legit top pairing D at 23 years old. He's also got 3 more years on a great contract, while Kyrou could plausibly be much more expensive after next season. Chychrun being the safer bet makes it easier to pay more for him.

Kyrou is easily the fastest and best skater on the Blues and started out PPG last year for two months before physically fading. He is a year older and put on muscle in the off-season. It’s not holding the conversation honestly to discuss him as “a 52-point pace winger” value.

It’s sort of beside the point too, I don’t see the Blues having interest even slightly in moving Kyrou.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Kyrou is easily the fastest and best skater on the Blues and started out PPG last year for two months before physically fading. He is a year older and put on muscle in the off-season. It’s not holding the conversation honestly to discuss him as “a 52-point pace winger” value.

It’s sort of beside the point too, I don’t see the Blues having interest even slightly in moving Kyrou.

I'm not suggesting he should be valued as a 52 point winger, and agree that he's definitely worth more than that based on his potential. but how much more, exactly? Is he a 70 point player, an 80 point player, or will he be even better than that? Or will he struggle to even reach 70? Right now, we simply don't know and that's the reason why he's hard to accurately value.

I also agree that there's no reason for the Blues to consider trading Kyrou. But, I'd also say there's no reason for the Coyotes to move Chychrun either, and still think Chychrun is significantly more valuable in a vacuum, at least today. If Kyrou continues to score like this all season, he could close the gap considerably, he just hasn't done it yet.

 

[MissouriMook]

Can we just agree that ARZ could get considerably more of an impact player for Chychrun if they decided to move him (i.e. - quality vs. quantity) than the OP -AND- that STL could find a solution (albeit perhaps older or less effective) for their 1LD role without paying nearly the price in futures suggested in the OP?

 

[PocketNines]

I'm not suggesting he should be valued as a 52 point winger, and agree that he's definitely worth more than that based on his potential. but how much more, exactly? Is he a 70 point player, an 80 point player, or will he be even better than that? Or will he struggle to even reach 70? Right now, we simply don't know and that's the reason why he's hard to accurately value.

I also agree that there's no reason for the Blues to consider trading Kyrou. But, I'd also say there's no reason for the Coyotes to move Chychrun either, and still think Chychrun is significantly more valuable in a vacuum, at least today. If Kyrou continues to score like this all season, he could close the gap considerably, he just hasn't done it yet.

I don’t consider Chychrun’s offense production level to be an established aspect of his game. Even 300 games in.

 

[Mrfenn92]

Coyotes say no

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

I don’t consider Chychrun’s offense production level to be an established aspect of his game. Even 300 games in.

I agree that his numbers last year were probably inflated, but he's been 0.38 PPG (31 points over 82 games) or better for the last 3 years (172 games), despite playing on the 7th worst offensive team in the NHL over that time. I think he's a pretty safe bet for 35+ points over a full season, which is easily top pairing D level production. Maybe not quite 1D level, but definitely top pairing.

 

[Syckle78]

I wouldn't trade an established 23 year old building block player at a premium position for a bucket of maybes and neither would anyone else.

 

[PocketNines]

I agree that his numbers last year were probably inflated, but he's been 0.38 PPG (31 points over 82 games) or better for the last 3 years (172 games), despite playing on the 7th worst offensive team in the NHL over that time. I think he's a pretty safe bet for 35+ points over a full season, which is easily top pairing D level production. Maybe not quite 1D level, but definitely top pairing.

If Kyrou is a 70-80 point winger with speed that opens space for linemates I think that’s close to 35 point, minutes-eating defenseman. So the difference is just when the Blues should be valuing Kyrou that way. I agree he isn’t a 70-80 point winger yet but I’m suggesting the Blues see him as real treasure who will become that player in the near future.

 

[sfvega]

This offer sucks for Arizona. It’s very risky for them.

My counter would be something like R Thomas, neighbors, 2022 1st and a cap dump from St Louis.

If the OP's offer for trade sucks, tell him that; not me. I thought your offer was crazy. Which you've dialed back on. Just say that.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

If Kyrou is a 70-80 point winger with speed that opens space for linemates I think that’s close to 35 point, minutes-eating defenseman. So the difference is just when the Blues should be valuing Kyrou that way. I agree he isn’t a 70-80 point winger yet but I’m suggesting the Blues see him as real treasure who will become that player in the near future.

If Kyrou reaches that level, I agree that it's much closer than it is today. I also agree that the Blues should absolutely value him like he'll definitely get there, and have no reason to trade him. But, until he actually shows that he's a 70-80 point winger, I'd much rather have the 35+ point top pairing D on the great contract, and would pay more for Chychrun.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

If Kyrou reaches that level, I agree that it's much closer than it is today. I also agree that the Blues should absolutely value him like he'll definitely get there, and have no reason to trade him. But, until he actually shows that he's a 70-80 point winger, I'd much rather have the 35+ point top pairing D on the great contract, and would pay more for Chychrun.

Cool, then we all agree there's no trade to be made between these teams involving these players.

 

[Ice Mammoth]

In the sense of the sentence, I already wrote above.

Jakob Chychrun is undoubtedly LD1. The player's contract is very good, in the era of the salary cap (AAV $ 4,600,000 UFA 2025).
Does Arizona need a player exchange? I think such an exchange is necessary. Sooner or later.
Arizona is building a new team. The club is likely to have a very high pick in the 2022 draft.

Arizona has in 2022: 31st + 5 2nd. Selected players will receive
ELC in 2022. Of course not all. ELC ends in 2025. This is concurrent with the end of Chychrun's contract. Even if Arizona drafts new NHL stars, the big spending will not be until 2025. One or two ELC hockey players signing new contracts until 2025 can be ignored.
Accordingly, the club has a good financial position until 2025. Withholding salaries can increase player value.

I would do the following.
Jakob Chychrun (AAV $4,600,000 UFA 2025).
@$50% ret = Jakob Chychrun (AAV $2,300,000 UFA 2025).
Then I would arrange an auction for all teams.
Imagine your best bet.

 

[bluesfan94]

Yikes, he's only a top 15 defenseman in the NHL at age 23

Agreed with everything you said except for the top 15 part! He definitely is only a defenseman in the NHL at age 23, though.

 

[Moose and Squirrel]

I agree that his numbers last year were probably inflated, but he's been 0.38 PPG (31 points over 82 games) or better for the last 3 years (172 games), despite playing on the 7th worst offensive team in the NHL over that time. I think he's a pretty safe bet for 35+ points over a full season, which is easily top pairing D level production. Maybe not quite 1D level, but definitely top pairing.

this is what makes it hard to just Cych's value. playing on, and lets be honest, an awful team makes it hard to tell if he's really that good or he has to do tha much cause the team isn't very good.. ie, does he play in a system? with better teammates.. have seen that a few times at least
honestly, he fits AZ so much, dunno why they would trade him.. at least for the next year or 2

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

Agreed with everything you said except for the top 15 part! He definitely is only a defenseman in the NHL at age 23, though.

This year was doomed from the start but he was a monster last year. Could easily be a norris winner over the next 5 years

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

this is what makes it hard to just Cych's value. playing on, and lets be honest, an awful team makes it hard to tell if he's really that good or he has to do tha much cause the team isn't very good.. ie, does he play in a system? with better teammates.. have seen that a few times at least
honestly, he fits AZ so much, dunno why they would trade him.. at least for the next year or 2

The Coyotes are awful this year, but over the previous 3 years, they weren't even a bottom 5 team, so I think you may be overstating your argument here. Or do you think it's also difficult to accurately judge Adam Fox's value, because he played on an equally "awful" team in NY? What about anyone on the Canucks or Ducks? Or is it just the Coyotes players that are difficult to judge because the went full rebuild this year?

 

[Three On Zero]

Why does this seem terrible for both teams ?

 

[Linkens Mastery]

Why does this seem terrible for both teams ?

Because it is.

 

[Moose and Squirrel]

The Coyotes are awful this year, but over the previous 3 years, they weren't even a bottom 5 team, so I think you may be overstating your argument here. Or do you think it's also difficult to accurately judge Adam Fox's value, because he played on an equally "awful" team in NY? What about anyone on the Canucks or Ducks? Or is it just the Coyotes players that are difficult to judge because the went full rebuild this year?

maybe I overstated it a bit, but some of those 'better'AZ teams were playing over their heads a bit
and to your point, I think it's pretty obvious VAN played over their heads 2 seasons ago, and has fallen back to earth

and what was so awful about the previous NYR teams? they had talent, they just either haven't put it together or underachieved

as far as the ducks, does anyone know how good, for example, Rackell is? would he be as productive on a better team playing a different line/role?

 

[DatDude44]

We need an LD that is big and physical, a stay at home type of Dman. I know some will say we’re missing Pietrangelo but it’s a JayBo type of player that we need.

Hampus Lindholm

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

maybe I overstated it a bit, but some of those 'better'AZ teams were playing over their heads a bit
and to your point, I think it's pretty obvious VAN played over their heads 2 seasons ago, and has fallen back to earth

and what was so awful about the previous NYR teams? they had talent, they just either haven't put it together or underachieved

as far as the ducks, does anyone know how good, for example, Rackell is? would he be as productive on a better team playing a different line/role?

The Coyotes allowed the 9th fewest goals against over 208+ game sample. I don't care if you think they were "playing over their heads a bit", that's still impressive. For comparison, the Rangers who "had talent" but "underachieved", allowed 65 more goals, and only earned 3 more points in the standings. Maybe the Rangers have more higher profile youngsters and should be better in the near future, but in terms of the actual results over the last few years, I'm not seeing the difference you seem to be claiming there has been between the two teams. They have both been similarly awful, but yet no one is claiming Fox is hard to judge.

And Rakell has proven that he can score 30+ goals in a season, having done it twice. Whether he'll do it again is a legitimate question, but he's already proven that he's capable. You know, like Chychrun has proven he's capable of being a 35+ point top pairing D on a top 10 defensive team in the NHL. To me, the only real question with Chychrun is whether he'll score more than 35 points on a team with a more effective offense. But, even without knowing his offensive ceiling, he's definitely a top pairing D and on a great contract, which gives him a ton of value.

 

[Moose and Squirrel]

The Coyotes allowed the 9th fewest goals against over 208+ game sample. I don't care if you think they were "playing over their heads a bit", that's still impressive. For comparison, the Rangers who "had talent" but "underachieved", allowed 65 more goals, and only earned 3 more points in the standings. Maybe the Rangers have more higher profile youngsters and should be better in the near future, but in terms of the actual results over the last few years, I'm not seeing the difference you seem to be claiming there has been between the two teams. They have both been similarly awful, but yet no one is claiming Fox is hard to judge.

And Rakell has proven that he can score 30+ goals in a season, having done it twice. Whether he'll do it again is a legitimate question, but he's already proven that he's capable. You know, like Chychrun has proven he's capable of being a 35+ point top pairing D on a top 10 defensive team in the NHL. To me, the only real question with Chychrun is whether he'll score more than 35 points on a team with a more effective offense. But, even without knowing his offensive ceiling, he's definitely a top pairing D and on a great contract, which gives him a ton of value.

not sure why you're so balled up. I haven't said anything sarcastic or denigrated anyone in my posts. I've even gone so far as to say AZ should NOT trade Chych.
and yes, "good" players from bad teams go to "good teams" and become so-so players. seen it a ton.

as far as Az vs NYR .. different divisions, different opponents.. apples oranges. and I do believe NYR are a more talented team than AZ

and I didnt claim Fox was 'hard to judge'. you threw that out there. Do you think Chych gets to play with as talented teammates as Fox?

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

not sure why you're so balled up. I haven't said anything sarcastic or denigrated anyone in my posts. I've even gone so far as to say AZ should NOT trade Chych.
and yes, "good" players from bad teams go to "good teams" and become so-so players. seen it a ton.

as far as Az vs NYR .. different divisions, different opponents.. apples oranges. and I do believe NYR are a more talented team than AZ

and I didnt claim Fox was 'hard to judge'. you threw that out there. Do you think Chych gets to play with as talented teammates as Fox?

I'm just trying to understand why you think Chychrun is so hard to judge in terms of value compared to other guys in similar situations. Sure, there are still questions about whether he's really a legit top 10 in D scoring 1D, but I don't think that takes away from the fact that he's shown himself to be capable of being a legit top pairing D who averaged a ~31+ point pace over 3 seasons, on one of the better defensive teams in the NHL. Add in the fact that he's only 23 years old and has 3 more years on a great contract, and I don't see any significant risks that makes him hard to value accurately.

But, sure, we've seen guys change teams and struggle, but that risk exists for literally everyone. There's no guarantee that 99% of the NHL players would continue to perform like they do elsewhere, because chemistry and fit matters. But where you lose me is when you make it sound like Chychrun is somehow more affected by this inherent risk than the rest of the league, simply because he plays in Arizona. Why is playing in Arizona so much different than playing on other mediocre teams that have had similar results over the last few years?

I also fully agree that the Rangers, on paper, had more talent on their roster than the Coyotes have had. And, yes, Fox plays with much more talented teammates. But, I think that Chychrun being surrounded by lesser players and still performing like he has is a plus, not a cause for concern. We at least know that he's not just leeching all his points off a bunch of talented forwards, right?

So, really, I'm just curious why you think he's hard to value. Because, from my viewpoint, he's worth a lot without much question.

 

[GhostofYotesFan47]

I'm just trying to understand why you think Chychrun is so hard to judge in terms of value compared to other guys in similar situations. Sure, there are still questions about whether he's really a legit top 10 in D scoring 1D, but I don't think that takes away from the fact that he's shown himself to be capable of being a legit top pairing D who averaged a ~31+ point pace over 3 seasons, on one of the better defensive teams in the NHL. Add in the fact that he's only 23 years old and has 3 more years on a great contract, and I don't see any significant risks that makes him hard to value accurately.

But, sure, we've seen guys change teams and struggle, but that risk exists for literally everyone. There's no guarantee that 99% of the NHL players would continue to perform like they do elsewhere, because chemistry and fit matters. But where you lose me is when you make it sound like Chychrun is somehow more affected by this inherent risk than the rest of the league, simply because he plays in Arizona. Why is playing in Arizona so much different than playing on other mediocre teams that have had similar results over the last few years?

I also fully agree that the Rangers, on paper, had more talent on their roster than the Coyotes have had. And, yes, Fox plays with much more talented teammates. But, I think that Chychrun being surrounded by lesser players and still performing like he has is a plus, not a cause for concern. We at least know that he's not just leeching all his points off a bunch of talented forwards, right?

So, really, I'm just curious why you think he's hard to value. Because, from my viewpoint, he's worth a lot without much question.

Based on his/her risk assessment, the only way Chychrun is worth a large sum is if he's traded and has success with another team first. It's fair if your someone adverse to risk but each NHL team is a business. Businesses take risks all the time, as do GMs. Personally, if Chychrun was available and I though he could be a difference maker towards my cup ambitions, I'm going to pull the trigger. Others may prefer to take their risk with their own drafted players who will be even less expensive but push potential success out a few years.

 

[Heldig]

In fairness to the Coyotes fans, it’s Chychrun’s difficult-to-valueness that mandates an equal player in return. However if the Blues were trading Kyrou it would be straight across and not “as a base” since they are in similar categories to each team.

You realize Chychrun OUTSCORED Kyrou last year (and the seasons before).

Chychrun, a 23-year-old #1 D is worth way more than an emerging RW.