SSM Greyhounds 2023-2024 Off-Season Thread (Part 1)

[dirty12]

The absence of a larger sample doesn't make a minuscule 5 game sample any more valuable.

The Florida Panthers won the Stanley Cup and were 24th in shooting percentage. Vegas was 11th the year before. Playing good teams doesn't necessarily result in the opposition goaltender having a bad SV%. It just means they face more shots.

About 60% of OHL teams are so different pre and post deadline that full season team stats are pretty much irrelevant. Here you are using stats from a salary cap league where players have 5-20 year careers to quantify OHL stats of one player… useless imo

 

[Fischhaber]

About 60% of OHL teams are so different pre and post deadline that full season team stats are pretty much irrelevant. Here you are using stats from a salary cap league where players have 5-20 year careers to quantify OHL stats of one player… useless imo

Get some shot data from the OHL and we'll talk, but the top teams were still the top teams after the deadline. The NHL adds players too and it's the best analogy we have.

 

[dirty12]

Get some shot data from the OHL and we'll talk, but the top teams were still the top teams after the deadline. The NHL adds players too and it's the best analogy we have.

The top OHL teams that added were better after the deafline, and the weaker teams that sold were even weaker.
The difference of Saginaw & SSM from Flint, Sarnia, & Windsor became greater.

I am already 99.7% certain Miller had it easier against those teams post deadline. You get relevant stats to prove there was no difference in W%, GA, SV% for Miller vs Flint, Sarnia, & Windsor.

 

[Fischhaber]

The top OHL teams that added were better after the deafline, and the weaker teams that sold were even weaker.
The difference of Saginaw & SSM from Flint, Sarnia, & Windsor became greater.

I am already 99.7% certain Miller had it easier against those teams post deadline. You get relevant stats to prove there was no difference in W%, GA, SV% for Miller vs Flint, Sarnia, & Windsor.

Nothing about a 5 game sample is relevant to begin with.

Your lack of understanding is evident when you keep bringing up the 'quality' of the teams. Better teams get more chances and score more goals, but they don't necessarily have a higher shot percentage, the inverse of which would be save percentage.

I think I've explained this about 4 times and people just don't care to understand because it would make their argument wrong.

 

[dirty12]

Nothing about a 5 game sample is relevant to begin with.

Your lack of understanding is evident when you keep bringing up the 'quality' of the teams. Better teams get more chances and score more goals, but they don't necessarily have a higher shot percentage, the inverse of which would be save percentage.

I think I've explained this about 4 times and people just don't care to understand because it would make their argument wrong.

your selected data is not at all applicable

 

[Savard18]

Nothing about a 5 game sample is relevant to begin with.

Your lack of understanding is evident when you keep bringing up the 'quality' of the teams. Better teams get more chances and score more goals, but they don't necessarily have a higher shot percentage, the inverse of which would be save percentage.

I think I've explained this about 4 times and people just don't care to understand because it would make their argument wrong.

Yeah, it’s because the better teams face starting goaltenders and the lesser teams face the Miller’s of the world.

 

[OHL4Life]

Well, wouldn’t it be relevant that john dean only felt comfortable to start him in 5 games against those higher quality teams. other 06s that are more established like george played against et everyone and wasn’t given passes with hard teams?

Get some shot data from the OHL and we'll talk, but the top teams were still the top teams after the deadline. The NHL adds players too and it's the best analogy we have.

what data would you like, I have it all on InStat

 

[Fischhaber]

Well, wouldn’t it be relevant that john dean only felt comfortable to start him in 5 games against those higher quality teams. other 06s that are more established like george played against et everyone and wasn’t given passes with hard teams?


what data would you like, I have it all on InStat

Coaches always start the older goalie against the best teams, especially when the other is essentially a rookie. That's been standard practice for years and doesn't tell you anything.

Team shooting percentage would be helpful to see if it's similar to the NHL. This whole argument is really about whether it is or not and no one without the stats knows.

 

[OHL4Life]

Coaches always start the older goalie against the best teams, especially when the other is essentially a rookie. That's been standard practice for years and doesn't tell you anything.

Team shooting percentage would be helpful to see if it's similar to the NHL. This whole argument is really about whether it is or not and no one without the stats knows.

sure it does, it tells you that Dean felt that last year the 04 was better and that millers numbers were against lesser teams.

and let me look it up tomorrow

 

[Fischhaber]

sure it does, it tells you that Dean felt that last year the 04 was better and that millers numbers were against lesser teams.

and let me look it up tomorrow

The same thing would have happened regardless of performance. Coaches aren't stupid enough to base decisions on ridiculously small samples.

 

[Kingpin794]

The same thing would have happened regardless of performance. Coaches aren't stupid enough to base decisions on ridiculously small samples.

So they were intentionally and knowingly playing the worse goalie (in your opinion) just because he was older?

 

[Fischhaber]

So they were intentionally and knowingly playing the worse goalie (in your opinion) just because he was older?

He was the better goalie, the stats make that obvious, but there wasn't a massive difference. I expect that the difference will be more substantial this year as the age 18 season is often a big year for goalies, especially ones that pro scouts have identified as future NHLers.

Coaches riding with the veteran over a better youngster is something we see regularly in all sports. Dean's goalie selection shouldn't have been particularly surprising to anyone.

 

[Savard18]

So they were intentionally and knowingly playing the worse goalie (in your opinion) just because he was older?

Sure. Why not? I mean it’s not like we’ve been acknowledging logic anyway.

 

[HockeyPops]

Just because a sample size is small does not mean you throw out the data. You may have to slightly widen the confidence interval, but the data is still good.

 

[rve24]

Coaches riding with the veteran over a better youngster is something we see regularly in all sports. Dean's goalie selection shouldn't have been particularly surprising to anyone.

This made me laugh.

 

[Fischhaber]

Just because a sample size is small does not mean you throw out the data. You may have to slightly widen the confidence interval, but the data is still good.

Your confidence interval would be extremely small in this instance, making the data nearly useless.

It's about as valuable as seeing a guy scoring a few goals on Wednesdays and concluding that there is something to it.

 

[frontsfan67]

I’ve seen some backup goalies have real good stats and then when it’s their time to be the starting goalie and they start getting those tougher teams the numbers fall way down.

Something to consider as well- you guys won’t be anywhere near as good next year so even though he’s a year older and a year better- the numbers may not improve much if any because of the team.

Look at zach Bowen and Mason vaccaris stats last year compared to the year before.

Bowen was on a great London team in 22/23- backing up one of the best goalies in the league- had better stats and then gets traded to Peterborough this year- isn’t even the starter and has worse stats on the way worse team.

Vaccari in 22/23 had zhigalov who wasn’t great but wasn’t horrible as the starting goalie here in kingston- zhigalov left last year and we didn’t have an ohl level backup- or a great team and vaccari played over 59 games and his stats went way down.

(Again with how things work- the fronts would be a lot better then 7th place and vaccari is now a 19 year old so he should have better stats this year)

I don’t think the soo drafting an import goalie is a shot to miller- they’re probably just trying to ease him in rather than throwing him to the wolves like the fronts did with vaccari

 

[OHL4Life]

im no advance stats guy, but i get the basic logic, your a very good team, you have better goalie stats. you have a bad team, you have worse goalie stats. if your a bad team but your goalies have good stats, they must be high end goalies.

the thought that both soo goalies will have worse stats this year regardless of if they are actually better, is totally viable.

 

[Kingpin794]

im no advance stats guy, but i get the basic logic, your a very good team, you have better goalie stats. you have a bad team, you have worse goalie stats. if your a bad team but your goalies have good stats, they must be high end goalies.

the thought that both soo goalies will have worse stats this year regardless of if they are actually better, is totally viable.

100% this. It's going to happen. Like if he can keep his GAA to around 3.2ish and have a SV% around 0.885, that'll be respectable especially if the Soo sells some guys off.

 

[OHL4Life]

shooting percentage low to high

Peterborough - 9.12
Niagara - 9.19
Sarnia - 10.59
Flint - 10.51
Mississauga - 10.66
Owen Sound - 10.79
Barrie - 10.99
Guelph - 11.18
Ottawa - 11.31
Erie - 11.38
Kitchener - 11.38
Windsor - 11.44
Brantford - 11.64
Kingston - 11.68
Soo - 11.81
Saginaw - 11.94
Sudbury - 13.07
North Bay - 13.60
London - 14.05

 

[Houndzfan20]

I'm not even sure what you're talking about or what relevance it has to this conversation.

Save percentage doesn't generally change based on the quality of the opponent. Better opponents just get more shots and more chances. That's what you need to understand.

If we were looking at GAA or W/L, then yes, the qualify of the opposition would absolutely matter.

I have no backup, but I'd have to disagree with this....if London had 40 shots against us, and Sarnia (no disrespect, we all have selloff years, minus the Soo) I'd bet London scored more goals, just based on player talent.

like someone said, Cowan, Barkey and Haultinen put the puck in at a higher rate than most.

I like Miller, but i think he's gonna get lit up like a christmas tree this year.

 

[OHL4Life]

I have no backup, but I'd have to disagree with this....if London had 40 shots against us, and Sarnia (no disrespect, we all have selloff years, minus the Soo) I'd bet London scored more goals, just based on player talent.

like someone said, Cowan, Barkey and Haultinen put the puck in at a higher rate than most.

I like Miller, but i think he's gonna get lit up like a christmas tree this year.

wont be his fault really either, thats why you have an older guy with him to take the shot with. 60/40 starts unless miller runs with it, then you can cut the 04 and bring in someone else for the end of the year.

 

[dirty12]

Not at all surprised that the top five teams in shooting percentage were top six in goals scored. (Oshawa missing)
The differences between buyers and sellers are probably greater if isolated to post dead line.

You might say, the selected NHL stats are not at all applicable.

 

[DWI Dale]

for years, whenever our team fails to meet his predictions, Fischy blames our starter and suggests the backup would outperform. stating miller was a stronger choice in net last season is just another extension of his excuses for his own prognostications. it's one of his many hills to die on and it's a predictable cycle that's not worth participating in.

the good news is, if you keep calling him on his BS he'll eventually block you!

 

[dirty12]

for years, whenever our team fails to meet his predictions, Fischy blames our starter and suggests the backup would outperform. stating miller was a stronger choice in net last season is just another extension of his excuses for his own prognostications. it's one of his many hills to die on and it's a predictable cycle that's not worth participating in.

the good news is, if you keep calling him on his BS he'll eventually block you!

It seems goalies are either hero or goat to fans.
How many goalies would the wolves need to have gone through before entertaining the possibility that goals against was in part due the top line attempting to all reach 2pts/game not win, or in part going through about 10 D during the season. Vandenberg had a significantly higher SV% in Niagara than in Sudbury!?