SSM Greyhounds 2023-2024 Off-Season Thread (Part 1)

[Houndzfan20]

no reason why you wouldnt start with both, you dont have a ton of high end 04s. if they get the goalie from the import draft and he is decent, then you can cut schenkel.

i thought that a few guys on here were saying that the tegelaar kid was a lock to be the backup next year?

Myself, i start with Shenkle, Miller and Telegaar as the 3rd stringer. deal Shenkel at the deadline and either run with Miller and Telegaar or if he can't cut it, bring in the Euro.

all this will depend on whether we get (and keep) Nordh though

 

[HockeyPops]

I want to see Tegelaar at this level before I make any judgement. He had good junior a numbers but it doesn't always translate. And if he was a lock there is no way they draft an import 06 goalie, so...

I figured he had a great shot at landing a backup spot based on our other options, but that was before the import draft.

 

[Fischhaber]

I'm blown away that giving Miller playing time is such a controversial idea.

He was a second round pick, played really well, and got drafted to the NHL. Greyhounds fans should be absolutely thrilled at the idea of him starting 40+ games. This is exactly what you want when you use a high pick on a goalie. Instead, a bunch of people want to stunt his development to squeeze an extra 6th round pick or something out of a mediocre OA that ranked 16th out of 20 starters in SV% as a 19 year old. I just don't get it.

 

[Savard18]

I'm blown away that giving Miller playing time is such a controversial idea.

He was a second round pick, played really well, and got drafted to the NHL. Greyhounds fans should be absolutely thrilled at the idea of him starting 40+ games. This is exactly what you want when you use a high pick on a goalie. Instead, a bunch of people want to stunt his development to squeeze an extra 6th round pick or something out of a mediocre OA that ranked 16th out of 20 starters in SV% as a 19 year old. I just don't get it.

If Miller can match or outperform Schenkel then it won’t be an issue and Schenkel will be moved. ASAP I’d imagine. Are you concerned Miller won’t be able to outplay him again this year? Schenkel’s numbers and actual play weren’t 16th of 20th in the playoffs and if not for him the Soo off-season thread would have started a lot earlier.

 

[Fischhaber]

If Miller can match or outperform Schenkel then it won’t be an issue and Schenkel will be moved. ASAP I’d imagine. Are you concerned Miller won’t be able to outplay him again this year? Schenkel’s numbers and actual play weren’t 16th of 20th in the playoffs and if not for him the Soo off-season thread would have started a lot earlier.

It was an issue last year and I expect that it will continue to be an issue this year if we stick with the status quo.

To answer your question, no, I'm not overly concerned about Miller's ability to play well. I'm confident we would have still beaten Guelph with Miller in net too. He was amazing in his one appearance. I don't think your comment about the playoffs is accurate.

 

[HockeyPops]

Both Schenkel and Miller had rough starts to the year last year. Miller was pulled a number of times, and Schenkel had a hard time finding consistency. There was a really good article mid year where Schenkel gives credit to Visentin for helping him with his practice mindset.

Both goalies got much better through the year. I wouldn't base many opinions on their overall regular season stats.

 

[dirty12]

Both Schenkel and Miller had rough starts to the year last year. Miller was pulled a number of times, and Schenkel had a hard time finding consistency. There was a really good article mid year where Schenkel gives credit to Visentin for helping him with his practice mindset.

Both goalies got much better through the year. I wouldn't base many opinions on their overall regular season stats.

The hounds were also a better team after the trade deadline with Frasca and Hayes while Windsor, Sarnia, and Flint were worse.

 

[Kingpin794]

Just to illustrate a point: Landon Miller played in 26 games in which he played at least 20 minutes (a periods worth of work). We’ll throw out his last game as the Soo mailed in the last game of the season. So we have 25 games now. Of these 25, 20 of them were against teams that were in the bottom half of the league in goals scored. In those games Miller had an impressive 2.37 GA/60 and a SV% of 0.910. In the 5 other games against the top half of the league he had a GA/60 of 3.21 and a SV% 0.852. Night and day. He’s big and talented. He has all the tools to take over in net at the OHL level. However, its not a slam dunk. He won’t have as good a team in front on him this season and will have to play the better teams more often. Its not a bad idea to keep Schenkel on to start the season for a 1A/1B tandem. Wait til November to see how Miller handles the new responsibilities. If he's doing his job, move Schenkel. Miller can still get his 40+ and you haven’t left yourself without a back up plan in case he struggles to get his feet under himself. A good GM doesn’t assume everything will work out perfectly or that everyone will live up to potential.

 

[Fischhaber]

Nor does a good GM make decisions based on a sample of 5 games.

 

[Kingpin794]

Nor does a good GM make decisions based on a sample of 5 games.

You understand the point I made. I know you don't care. the info is mainly for everyone else so that they have some context.

 

[Fischhaber]

You understand the point I made. I know you don't care. the info is mainly for everyone else so that they have some context.

I'm not touting his win/loss record. A middling team may put up fewer shots, but the SV% was still impressive for a rookie nonetheless. Advanced stats at the NHL level suggest that poor quality opponents don't necessarily have worse chances, they just have fewer of them.

Six of the top eight teams in shooting percentage won less than half of their games, for a simple visualization.

 

[dirty12]

I'm not touting his win/loss record. A middling team may put up fewer shots, but the SV% was still impressive for a rookie nonetheless. Advanced stats at the NHL level suggest that poor quality opponents don't necessarily have worse chances, they just have fewer of them.

Six of the top eight teams in shooting percentage won less than half of their games, for a simple visualization.

Don’t need advanced stats to figure out that is because the weaker teams face the back up.

 

[Fischhaber]

Don’t need advanced stats to figure out that is because the weaker teams face the back up.

You haven't provided any evidence that this is the case. It's just random speculation.

 

[dirty12]

You haven't provided any evidence that this is the case. It's just random speculation.

That random speculation is probably more meaningful than the random stat you chose from a different league. About 30% of OHL teams add an elite for the league player and a couple more that are well above average at the deadline for about 40% of the season. The OHL trade deadline has a greater effect on season stats than the NHL trade deadline.

 

[Fischhaber]

That random speculation is probably more meaningful than the random stat you chose from a different league. About 30% of OHL teams add an elite for the league player and a couple more that are well above average at the deadline for about 40% of the season. The OHL trade deadline has a greater effect on season stats than the NHL trade deadline.

I'm not even sure what you're talking about or what relevance it has to this conversation.

Save percentage doesn't generally change based on the quality of the opponent. Better opponents just get more shots and more chances. That's what you need to understand.

If we were looking at GAA or W/L, then yes, the qualify of the opposition would absolutely matter.

 

[Savard18]

Save percentage doesn't generally change based on the quality of the opponent.

Kingpin just showed that in the case of Miller last year that there was a drastic difference in save%. Also, theres gonna be a difference when your facing Cowan, Barkey, Haltunnen as shooters vs Filak, Wainright and Doucette more than just increased chances.

 

[OHL4Life]

.

 

[Fischhaber]

Kingpin just showed that in the case of Miller last year that there was a drastic difference in save%. Also, theres gonna be a difference when your facing Cowan, Barkey, Haltunnen as shooters vs Filak, Wainright and Doucette more than just increased chances.

You can't possibly believe that 5 games is a good indication of how a 17 year old goalie will play in the future, or that is more accurate than thousands of games worth of statistics that show this isn't the case.

 

[rve24]

You can't possibly believe that 5 games is a good indication of how a 17 year old goalie will play in the future, or that is more accurate than thousands of games worth of statistics that show this isn't the case.

Can u provide the 1000s game reference stats for us on the sidelines and also provide context for revelancy in the O instead of NHL stats which aren't an equivelant marker. Or is it random speculation ?

 

[Savard18]

You can't possibly believe that 5 games is a good indication of how a 17 year old goalie will play in the future, or that is more accurate than thousands of games worth of statistics that show this isn't the case.

5 games is about 10x more sample size than the one relief playoff appearance YOU sited and yes, it may take you longer to recognize a pattern but 5 games is enough for me to become aware of the fact that last year Miller did not perform well when facing the top half of the league. If you can produce stats of Miller performing well against the top half of the league in a larger sample size please feel free to do so. The Greyhounds will not be the team they were last year. There will be plenty of games that are tough on the goalies. No need to throw out your insurance policy before the season even begins. If Miller proves ready, Schenkel will be moved.

 

[StingUpdates]

Kingpin just showed that in the case of Miller last year that there was a drastic difference in save%. Also, theres gonna be a difference when your facing Cowan, Barkey, Haltunnen as shooters vs Filak, Wainright and Doucette more than just increased chances.

Eh, vs the powerhouse that was Sarnia, Miller had a 0.898. so while better than his season sv% not by a lot haha.

 

[Fischhaber]

5 games is about 10x more sample size than the one relief playoff appearance YOU sited and yes, it may take you longer to recognize a pattern but 5 games is enough for me to become aware of the fact that last year Miller did not perform well when facing the top half of the league. If you can produce stats of Miller performing well against the top half of the league in a larger sample size please feel free to do so. The Greyhounds will not be the team they were last year. There will be plenty of games that are tough on the goalies. No need to throw out your insurance policy before the season even begins. If Miller proves ready, Schenkel will be moved.

The absence of a larger sample doesn't make a minuscule 5 game sample any more valuable.

The Florida Panthers won the Stanley Cup and were 24th in shooting percentage. Vegas was 11th the year before. Playing good teams doesn't necessarily result in the opposition goaltender having a bad SV%. It just means they face more shots.

 

[Savard18]

Eh, vs the powerhouse that was Sarnia, Miller had a 0.898. so while better than his season sv% not by a lot haha.

I had to pick a team from the West as an example. I didn’t choose OS or Windsor because of Barlow and Greentree, the next best options were Sarnia and Flint and I wasn’t gonna use my team! Don’t worry when Miller is in his prime the Sting will be too and knowing Seca’s recent past they are likely to be formidable.

 

[Savard18]

The absence of a larger sample doesn't make a minuscule 5 game sample any more valuable.

The Florida Panthers won the Stanley Cup and were 24th in shooting percentage. Vegas was 11th the year before. Playing good teams doesn't necessarily result in the opposition goaltender having a bad SV%. It just means they face more shots.

There’s so many flaws in this argument I’d need a spreadsheet to cover them all so let’s just go with the easy one. Florida could be 56th in shooting percentage and win the Stanley Cup if the D and goaltending produced a shutout every night.

 

[Fischhaber]

There’s so many flaws in this argument I’d need a spreadsheet to cover them all so let’s just go with the easy one. Florida could be 56th in shooting percentage and win the Stanley Cup if the D and goaltending produced a shutout every night.

No kidding. The argument being made by yourself and others is that a 5 game sample is proof that 'good teams' like Florida, will tank an opposition goalie's save percentage. There's little evidence that this is the case. It's just statistical variance.