Sporting News: Factors behind Team USA’s early exit

[swoopster]

You’re not wrong but I also see a lot of these NTDP players getting grossly overrated due to team success and having the added benefit of playing together as a team all season, getting prime opportunities against fairly weak competition, in comparison to European leagues and the CHL. Alex tut otter looked like a late first or maybe a second round pick this tournament, he was a ghost. The fact people lambasted the blackhawks for selecting Dach, whose a far superior player over turcotte was laughable. Caufield is a good goal scorer but doesn’t create space for himself very well and his skating is average. Doesn’t see the ice overly well either. Robertson is one kid who plays with fire and energy, pushes the pace and that’s how the game is played at the NHL level, not feasting on PP’s. The NTDP is a blessing, and a curse for USA hockey. I truly believe it gives them a distinct advantage at the U17 and U18 levels due to the familiarity that other countries don’t have. But then here, at the U20 level, it rarely leads to dominant success. USA hockey is still very good and they have a ton of talent, will win their fair share of medals, but they’re players get highly overrated due to the NTDP imo.

Very well put. I often thought about the level of competition the NTDP plays and how it could skew stats. This doesn't mean that Turcotte or Caufield will not be solid NHLers but that perhaps too much is expected of them later on in their careers based on what they accomplished with the NTDP. I do disagree with your opinion that only Hughes and Zegras belonged in the top 15 as Turcotte will turn out to be one of the better players in the 19 draft and Caufield will score in the NHL but yeah, they were in a sense over-hypeded into massive future super stars because of the NTDP.

Once a kid is earmarked for the NTDP, the case is closed and he becomes "can't miss" status. They become the most sought after players wherever they go, because, hey, can't question the NTDP. On top of that the kid knows it and can now perform "magic tricks" against weaker opposition. The team concept is not featured as our better players will out one one one yours. Then they face the realities of this tournament and opponents with strong team play.

On the opposite side is Finland where nothing but the team concept is featured. In that environment players can be substituted and they all know their basic roll.

(Jez somebody get me a typist )

 

[Ace Card Bedard]

You’re not wrong but I also see a lot of these NTDP players getting grossly overrated due to team success and having the added benefit of playing together as a team all season, getting prime opportunities against fairly weak competition, in comparison to European leagues and the CHL. Alex tut otter looked like a late first or maybe a second round pick this tournament, he was a ghost. The fact people lambasted the blackhawks for selecting Dach, whose a far superior player over turcotte was laughable. Caufield is a good goal scorer but doesn’t create space for himself very well and his skating is average. Doesn’t see the ice overly well either. Robertson is one kid who plays with fire and energy, pushes the pace and that’s how the game is played at the NHL level, not feasting on PP’s. The NTDP is a blessing, and a curse for USA hockey. I truly believe it gives them a distinct advantage at the U17 and U18 levels due to the familiarity that other countries don’t have. But then here, at the U20 level, it rarely leads to dominant success. USA hockey is still very good and they have a ton of talent, will win their fair share of medals, but they’re players get highly overrated due to the NTDP imo.

Let's see how it has actually played out at the U20 level for the USA:

Before NTDP:

1974-1996 (23 years)

2 Bronze medals

Since NTDP:

1997-2020 (24 years)

4 Gold medals
2 Silver medals
4 Bronze medals

Are you sure your argument makes sense? I'm not so sure.
Looks to me like am incredible success story.

Kane, Matthews, Jones, Gibson, Eichel, Keller, McAvoy, Tkachuk, JvR, Fowler, Werenski, Miller, Suter, etc. Hardly overrated.
That program has 50-60 players in the NHL right now, many of them stars.

 

[Statsy]

But the 7 game series point is always just speculation. For instance, if we think about a hypothetical series between USA and Czech Republic where USA is 70% favorite to win a single match. There's still a 3% chance for Czech Republic to the series. Bo7 just reduces the variance.

What I'm trying to say is that there is really no point in pointing out the 7 game series. Almost everyone already knows when there's been an upset.

I don’t think the 7 game series point needs to be made the majority of the time, but there are exceptions. We started this conversation with it being mentioned that the USA U18 wasn’t the best team in that tournament.... but the reality is that they actually were. I would argue they were the best U18 squad ever assembled, though that is a lot more speculative.

 

[Czechboy]

U18 isn't a great predictor of U20 because some countries don't have a lot of their talent available for the former.

There is not a good barometer of U18 to be honest.

The U18 in April has the best US team and a watered down Canada. US has a tremendous record at U18.
The Hlinka has the best Candada team but a watered down US one. Canada has a tremendous record at Hlinka.

Both tourneys have a watered down Big 5 nation.

U20 is no different because the best players are in the NHL - Kakko, Boqvist, Dahlin, Dobson etc.

 

[kingsholygrail]

Typical, all reasons are about USA's weaknesses, with no credit given to Team Finland.

They simply met the stronger team, that happens.

By the way, calling Wahlstrom some goal-scorer is odd. He has scored 3 goals this season, and 10 last season.

I'm getting confused on the narrative. Was the US embarrassed losing to Finland or was it supposed to happen?

 

[Merrrlin]

My fellow Isles fans praising Wahlstrom and dumping on Robertson is the most HFBoards thing I have a seen yet.

 

[Corso]

Let's see how it has actually played out at the U20 level for the USA:

Before NTDP:

1974-1996 (23 years)

2 Bronze medals

Since NTDP:

1997-2020 (24 years)

4 Gold medals
2 Silver medals
4 Bronze medals

Are you sure your argument makes sense? I'm not so sure.
Looks to me like am incredible success story.

Kane, Matthews, Jones, Gibson, Eichel, Keller, McAvoy, Tkachuk, JvR, Fowler, Werenski, Miller, Suter, etc. Hardly overrated.
That program has 50-60 players in the NHL right now, many of them stars.

I an not sure I would lay the success the U.S. has had over the past quarter century at the WJC solely at the hands of the NTDP. The vast majority of those players would have developed just fine in the U.S.H.L. or the C.H.L. What the NTDP has accomplished is steering the very best U.S. kids to their program and then to the NCAA.

 

[CauZuki]

You’re not wrong but I also see a lot of these NTDP players getting grossly overrated due to team success and having the added benefit of playing together as a team all season, getting prime opportunities against fairly weak competition, in comparison to European leagues and the CHL. Alex tut otter looked like a late first or maybe a second round pick this tournament, he was a ghost. The fact people lambasted the blackhawks for selecting Dach, whose a far superior player over turcotte was laughable. Caufield is a good goal scorer but doesn’t create space for himself very well and his skating is average. Doesn’t see the ice overly well either. Robertson is one kid who plays with fire and energy, pushes the pace and that’s how the game is played at the NHL level, not feasting on PP’s. The NTDP is a blessing, and a curse for USA hockey. I truly believe it gives them a distinct advantage at the U17 and U18 levels due to the familiarity that other countries don’t have. But then here, at the U20 level, it rarely leads to dominant success. USA hockey is still very good and they have a ton of talent, will win their fair share of medals, but they’re players get highly overrated due to the NTDP imo

That's one of his best assets and what all scouts agree that he excels at , your argument lost so much weight at that moment... Caufield didn't put up his best performance and the coach didn't use him properly at all (to his strengths). Many US players underperformed , doesn't undo how good Caufield is at scoring goals and getting himself open in the dangerous areas. Hopefully it translates to the NHL , time will tell and so far he's had success in all leagues he's played in...

 

[Breakers]

History remembers the Gold Medal winners as the best team. That’s the way it works.... but, of course, that’s not reality. If it was, we would only need one game to settle every series of each round of the Stanley Cup playoffs. The fact is that we all understand that one game just isn’t enough to truly establish which is the better team. Logistically, that’s all we can really expect from a short tournament though. There is little doubt in my mind that Sweden was the better team in the 1993 WJC, but Canada won because Manny Legace stood on his head against the Forsberg/Naslund led Swedes. The best team doesn’t always win. That’s just a fact.

And yet that was the gold medal game
Something which the american U18 team didnt make.

 

[Corso]

That's one of his best assets and what all scouts agree that he excels at , your argument lost so much weight at that moment... Caufield didn't put up his best performance and the coach didn't use him properly at all (to his strengths). Many US players underperformed , doesn't undo how good Caufield is at scoring goals and getting himself open in the dangerous areas. Hopefully it translates to the NHL , time will tell and so far he's had success in all leagues he's played in...

His strength is indeed disappearing in the Ozone and then magically appearing out of no where with a blistering one timer that finds the back of the net 90% of the time. He excels on the PP but can also cause damage in 5X5 situations provided he has the right center to work with. Look no one ever believed, not least of Montreal, that he was/is a puck possession magnate able to quarterback the transition into the Offensive end. No, he is a sniper pure and simple.

 

[AlternateSideParking]

Typical, all reasons are about USA's weaknesses, with no credit given to Team Finland.

They simply met the stronger team, that happens.

By the way, calling Wahlstrom some goal-scorer is odd. He has scored 3 goals this season, and 10 last season.

It wasn't a recap of just one game. It was the tournament as a whole. The quote below is crediting Finland for shutting down the U.S. offense and playing disciplined hockey. I guess you skipped over that part.

The Finns, however, ended any chance at another American championship by smothering them at even strength via an aggressive forecheck and held them to only seven shots in the final frame. Additionally, Finland gave the U.S. only two power-play chances for the entire game — the second coming within the last two minutes of regulation.

Poor journalism, in my opinion.

You are one of the few people with a real voice in hockey media that talks about this team, and you neglected the very obvious fact that 4 of the 5 highest drafted skaters on the team were 5th, 6th and 7th of 13th forwards in TOI and 7th of 7 among defensemen.

Why don't you call out the coach for playing favorites with grinders?

This is a joke, right?

You're telling me you read the underlined -- or the entire paragraphs for that matter -- and somehow deduced that the coach wasn't criticized for keeping high-profile players on the bench?

One can make a strong argument that the best U.S. defender in terms of playmaking and generating chances off the rush is Philadelphia Flyers prospect Cam York, who averaged a team-low 5:55 per game and was barely used at even strength.

Depth Scoring
For whatever reason, only five American forwards in the quarterfinal match against Finland played over 14 minutes, and both Alex Turcotte — the fifth-overall pick in last year’s draft — and leading goal-scorer Arthur Kaliyev, played less than four minutes in the final period. While it’s common practice for a coach to ride his top players in a close game, head coach Scott Sandelin’s reliance on two lines throughout the tournament, including the final 15 minutes of regulation against Finland, was puzzling given the resumes of the teenagers he was keeping on the bench.

 

[CauZuki]

His strength is indeed disappearing in the Ozone and then magically appearing out of no where with a blistering one timer that finds the back of the net 90% of the time. He excels on the PP but can also cause damage in 5X5 situations provided he has the right center to work with. Look no one ever believed, not least of Montreal, that he was/is a puck possession magnate able to quarterback the transition into the Offensive end. No, he is a sniper pure and simple.

While I do agree, I've seen some nice plays from him in Wisconsin where he cuts into the offensive zone and makes a nifty pass only for the play to go dead because Wisconsin is a mediocre team outside of Turcotte/Caufield. It's hard to say how well his game will translate as he is dependant on a certain type of center to have success and he doesn't have the game breaking speed you'd expect from someone that's 5'7.

 

[theVladiator]

Let's see how it has actually played out at the U20 level for the USA:

Before NTDP:

1974-1996 (23 years)

2 Bronze medals

Since NTDP:

1997-2020 (24 years)

4 Gold medals
2 Silver medals
4 Bronze medals

Are you sure your argument makes sense? I'm not so sure.
Looks to me like am incredible success story.

Kane, Matthews, Jones, Gibson, Eichel, Keller, McAvoy, Tkachuk, JvR, Fowler, Werenski, Miller, Suter, etc. Hardly overrated.
That program has 50-60 players in the NHL right now, many of them stars.

What's your stance on Correlation vis-a-vis Causation? Personally, I think Miracle on Ice and NHL deserve a ton of credit for explosive growth of the young player *base* for NTDP program to choose from, and deserve anywhere from >0 to 100% of the credit for that tournament record.

To be clear, I do not agree with the part of the post you highlighted as the target of your response, I am just trying to exercise my critical thinking faculties.

 

[Lt Dan]

Poor journalism, in my opinion.

Indeed

Journalism is dead , Everything is clickbait these days

 

[HSF]

Although Turcotte and Caufield teamed up to score the winner in overtime against the Czechs, they were unable see enough ice to impact play at even strength.

Or they didn't do enough to deserve more icetime over others.

 

[HSF]

Poor journalism, in my opinion.

You are one of the few people with a real voice in hockey media that talks about this team, and you neglected the very obvious fact that 4 of the 5 highest drafted skaters on the team were 5th, 6th and 7th of 13th forwards in TOI and 7th of 7 among defensemen.

Why don't you call out the coach for playing favorites with grinders?

Turcotte and Caufield really didn't deserve more icetime. I thought they were non factors from beginning to end except for the OT play

If you want to sit there and blame TOI for why the USA got kicked out in the semis you can but to me it was the big boys didn't play like big boys except for Zegras and Pinto upfront

 

[Rebels57]

College coachs love grinders. That simple.

 

[CauZuki]

Turcotte and Caufield really didn't deserve more icetime. I thought they were non factors from beginning to end except for the OT play

If you want to sit there and blame TOI for why the USA got kicked out in the semis you can but to me it was the big boys didn't play like big boys except for Zegras and Pinto upfront

While I don't disagree with your assessment, I think a more balanced approach in regards to lineup and going with the known chemistry between Turcotte and Caufield from day 1 could have offered the team another threat. Instead it was a mix and match of players that didn't fit well and when they didn't mesh all we saw was Zegras,Pinto for the rest of the tournament. He put Turcotte and Caufield together for game 3 and after the game commented about how they seem to have good chemistry...What a clueless thing to say and only adds to what I believe was a major issue with the US team which was down to coaching, not having Hughes as well as multiple players underperforming.

 

[blindpass]

Typical, all reasons are about USA's weaknesses, with no credit given to Team Finland.

Agreed.
This is what's bad about these threads. At the very least people should make sure they credit the other team. The conversations go on as if they (as fans) are entitled to victory and failures on the part of coaches and players deprive you of it; ignoring the fact that there are other strong teams out there and you won't always win. BTW this bugs me most when it's my country doing it.

They simply met the stronger team, that happens.

This is just as bad though. It was a single game, decided by the narrowest margin. Finns played great and gutted out a win, all the credit to them. But we can skip the unfounded pronouncements. They came out on top on the day.

 

[blindpass]

There is not a good barometer of U18 to be honest.

The U18 in April has the best US team and a watered down Canada. US has a tremendous record at U18.
The Hlinka has the best Candada team but a watered down US one. Canada has a tremendous record at Hlinka.

Both tourneys have a watered down Big 5 nation.

U20 is no different because the best players are in the NHL - Kakko, Boqvist, Dahlin, Dobson etc.

U20 is a bit better, you can think of it as taking out the outliers (superstars). It hits every country at least, though each year who it hurts most varies.

 

[Statsy]

And yet that was the gold medal game
Something which the american U18 team didnt make.

I watched that tournament, and I know a stolen game when I see one. The best team didn't win that day. I don't care if you don't believe me.

 

[Statsy]

What's your stance on Correlation vis-a-vis Causation? Personally, I think Miracle on Ice and NHL deserve a ton of credit for explosive growth of the young player *base* for NTDP program to choose from, and deserve anywhere from >0 to 100% of the credit for that tournament record.

To be clear, I do not agree with the part of the post you highlighted as the target of your response, I am just trying to exercise my critical thinking faculties.

Wow! If you're going to write off the success of USNTDP as mere correlation, then there's nothing we can do for you.

 

[tony d]

They did under perform for sure. The talent is there just not the effort from the looks of things.

 

[theVladiator]

Wow! If you're going to write off the success of USNTDP as mere correlation, then there's nothing we can do for you.

I would not call a nice strawman "nothing". Give yourself some credit.

 

[Anisimovs AK]

What's your stance on Correlation vis-a-vis Causation? Personally, I think Miracle on Ice and NHL deserve a ton of credit for explosive growth of the young player *base* for NTDP program to choose from, and deserve anywhere from >0 to 100% of the credit for that tournament record.

To be clear, I do not agree with the part of the post you highlighted as the target of your response, I am just trying to exercise my critical thinking faculties.

The Miracle on Ice was responsible for a participation growth and quite possibly the best American NHL'ers were around at that time.

And they still had little to no success in this tournament.

Only after starting the USNTDP and taking hockey much more seriously (at all levels) has the US seen any form of sustained success.


I guess Im saying I disagree with you