Some summertime fun: Comparing Crosby vs. McDavid best Playoff runs

[GreatGonzo]

I just read a good amount of this thread.

Have any of you considered the possibility Daver is trolling lol?

Sorry but had to be said.

09 Crosby got carried by Malkin in the finals.
24 McDavid carried draisaitl. McDavid only got outscored this playoff run by Gretzky and Lemieux who are unarguably the 2 best forwards ever.

I hoped for that, but in the end I believe he is one hundred percent certain on how he feels and what he believes

The most 1 dimensional player of all time. Pardon me for not being overly impressed by 50 goal 20 assist seasons, lol.

That’s fine, you can hate on him all you want. His trophy case, stats, and overall achievements speak louder than your garbage opinion.

 

[Felidae]

Martin St Louis won one of his Art Ross trophies primarily because Crosby was hurt. I don't believe McDavid is done winning scoring titles yet, people still can't grasp the talent they are seeing.


I would absolutely take St Louis above Ovechkin. I don't care what stat counters say, I consider the way Ovechkin plays the game shameful.

So you acknowledge Crosby missed out on hardware due to injuries but in your initial comment used trophy counting to argue McDavid was closer to Gretzky than Crosby..

I mean, injuries is just one factor. But McDavid's domination over his peers is closer to prime Crosby than what Gretzky did.


As for MSL> Ovechkin.. well, that's the first time I've heard that..

 

[daver]

He's not trolling. His problem is he makes it very obvious he's not objective when it comes to discussions involving Crosby. He has sense in general. I've read decent posts by him. But he makes himself look silly when he makes threads like this one. Just read some of his posts in this thread and count the number of times he applies one standard for one player and a different (if not opposite) one for another. Examples: Glorifying a three-point game for Crosby in a blowout win after stating McDavid's scoring in the SCF is overrated based on point totals (he's been going on about how many of his points in the series aren't important because they came in blow out wins for a while) and saying that Crosby's performance in the 2018 playoffs is arguably as impressive as McDavid's performance in the 2022 playoffs even though Crosby scored a third of his points in the 2018 playoffs in two blowout wins in round one.

Perhaps that's more likely to happen when you start with the assumption that something must be a fact and then try to finding supporting evidence instead of doing an objective evaluation and then drawing conclusions.

I have changed the mention of 2018 run as being comparable to 2022 in the OP to being comparable to McDavid's 2023 (also two rounds) as I agree that an analysis does put Crosby's 2018 numbers into context; as should an analysis of McDavid's 2024 SCF.

But you are being disingenuous if you think there are not multiple examples of standards being applied to McDavid and not to Crosby in this thread.

For example, do you apply the same standard to McDavid's SCF as the one you want to apply to Crosby's 2018 run? Or should BOTH be taken at face statistical value?

 

[daver]

Oh I'm not denying McDavid got lots of help in the first 3 (really, 2.5) rounds.

It's the SCF where Malkin stepped up and Draisaitl disappeared.

2024 McDavid - 7 GP 3 G 8 A 11 P +5
2009 Malkin - 7 GP 2 G 6 A 8 P +-0

2009 Crosby - 7 GP 1 G 2 A 3 P -3
2024 Draisaitl - 7 GP 0 G 3 A 3 P -2

The 2009/2024 SCF divide when it comes to the performance of the four players in pretty clear. McDavid and Malkin played tremendous hockey. Crosby and Draisaitl did not.

I am not arguing that Crosby's performance in the 2009 SCF against the Wings was as good as McDavid's in the 2024 SCF vs. the Cats. Nor do I disagree that you can easily point the finger more at Draisaitl for the Oilers loss than McDavid. I already said the Crosby would have been critiqued for a Pens loss in 2009.

What I am arguing is that their overall playoff runs, 2009 vs. 2024, are closer that the raw numbers would indicate. Crosby through three rounds before the SCF was better than McDavid in 2024 through three rounds. McDavid was better in the SCF but not as good as his numbers indicate and Crosby was not as bad as his numbers would indicate.

 

[daver]

Good thing no one here thinks McDavid or crosby is Gretzky level then.

My only point was that Henrik Sedin's Art Ross was not weak. It was more productive than McDavid's first 2 Art Ross seasons, and he did it in a lower scoring season.

Crosby in 2009-10 was also just a year older than McDavid's 2nd art Ross win, it's not hard to imagine 22 year old Crosby wasn't at his peak yet, just like how McDavid's first 2 Art Ross wins are not necessarily his stronger seasons.

Sedin was very good that season but not as good when you see how much his brother helped him which is why he, and that season, gets underrated.

After another Cup run, Crosby, and the Pens, got off to a slow start. Crosby had his worst 20 game stretch (outside of his first half of his rookie season) to start that season (under a PPG) then played at a 1.50 PPG the rest of year and still won the Rocket to boot. He then plays at 1.60 clip for the next three seasons

"He lost to Sedin" is a pretty weak narrative when that is considered. So is a "Five Art Rosses to Two" narrative. As much as a "Three Cups to Zero" narrative is weak.

 

[daver]

I was reading through the revision on #7, Crosby's 2018 more impressive than McDavid's 2023, and hoo boy is that a big one. Crosby's 2018 playoff run is easily defined by 3 percentages - 31%, 21.1%, and 19.5%. He shot 31% on 29 shots, a ridiculous outlier that is double any of his career averages, while he was on-ice at even strength, his line shot 21.1%, a number way out of line of his career (which is 10.7% in the regular season), and on the power play his line shot 19.5%. Nobody has a higher shooting percentage at even strength compared to the power play, unless you're looking at a 12 game sample. That 21.1% shooting percentage means since 23 goals were scored at even-strength that year, there were 109 shots taken while Crosby was on-ice.

If you look at Crosby's next 3 playoff runs, where he put up 5 even strength points in 14 games, on-ice his line went 2/40, 3/35 and 3/72, for a collective 8/147. Regression to the mean [23+8/109+147=31/256, or 12.1%]! I get there are a lot of confounding factors over 4 separate playoff runs, but the numbers are the numbers. Crosby's not going to randomly double his career shooting percentage over a sustained sample. It was 12 games, everything went in for he and his line, and then he got eliminated and the sample ended.

There is an obvious comparison to Ovechkin's 08-09 playoff run of 11+10=21, 90 shots in 14 games, but the simple conclusion is that those 3 highlighted numbers - player shooting percentage, even strength and power play on-ice shooting percentages - are well within Ovechkin's career norms. Ovechkin's playoff shooting percentage was 12.2%, his regular season shooting percentage to that point was 12.2%; his on-ice shooting percentage at even strength was 12.4%, which is higher than his career regular season of 10.5%, but in line with some of his best years; and his on-ice shooting percentage on the power play was 14.5%, right in line with his career 14.8%.

I bring that up not to try and compare an Ovechkin playoff run, but to show how an outlier run can either be supported or unsupported by the underlying numbers. We can acknowledge that Crosby's 2018 run was a good playoffs, but also admit that it was more down to luck in a small sample than any other reason. If we think about their even-strength on-ice percentages compared to their career numbers, Crosby's 21.1%, 23/109 is compared to 10.7%, his normal number would be 12, so he was on-ice for 11 extra goals in that 109 shot sample. Ovechkin's 12.4%, 17/137 is compared to 10.5%, his normal number would be 15, so he was on-ice for 2 extra goals in that 137 shot sample.

Returning to McDavid in 2023, he was unlucky at even-strength (his on-ice shooting percentage was 8.7 on a career of 11.2), but the Oilers went 18/39 on the power play in 12 games, and that shooting luck led to 12 of McDavid's 20 points. Their shooting percentage regressed to the mean the next year, which meant that they just went 22 for 75, a 29.3% clip instead of the 46.2% they had in 2023, but McDavid's even strength on-ice shooting percentage was 12.9%, so he went from 7 even strength points in 12 games to 25 even strength points in 25 games.

Read through this post and hoo boy. Not questioning your numbers but now we are supposed to factor in luck into a comparison?

Crosby's 2009 SCF against the Wings is by far the biggest albatross on his playoff resume; the go to for many arguing for McDavid.

Can we claim that he was just unlucky in that series and disregard that as a negative for Crosby?

 

[blogofmike]

What I am arguing is that their overall playoff runs, 2009 vs. 2024, are closer that the raw numbers would indicate.

Connor McDavid had 4 4-point playoff games in 2024, tied for most in a single year by a non-Gretzky player.

Sidney Crosby had 3 4-point playoff games in his entire career.

In 2009 Crosby faced weaker teams, while getting more help from Malkin and his teammates.

2009 Crosby doesn't belong in the conversation with 2024 McDavid. He should be mentioned with 2024 Draisaitl. Malkin was the guy with 36 points.

 

[Gorskyontario]

That’s fine, you can hate on him all you want. His trophy case, stats, and overall achievements speak louder than your garbage opinion.

Other than goal scoring, and physicality. What aspects of Ovechkins game is better than MSL?

MSL was a better playmaker, better in the playoffs, better defensively, better skater, smarter. Less selfish with the puck. MSL played the majority of his career on much worse teams than Ovechkin and still has 2x art ross trophies.

Ovechkin also spent the majority of his career choking in the playoffs, until Kuznetsov carried him to a cup win.

I mean, injuries is just one factor. But McDavid's domination over his peers is closer to prime Crosby than what Gretzky did.

I don't agree with this at all. Maybe if Crosby was healthy in 10/11-12/13. Those were probably the easiest 3 scoring titles for him to win. As it stands, Crosby's 'domination' over his peers is at a lower level than Jagr and Lafleur. Much less McDavid.

Can we claim that he was just unlucky in that series and disregard that as a negative for Crosby?

No, he played bad. Malkin carried that team in the SCF, and no amount of coping can change that.

 

[GreatGonzo]

Other than goal scoring, and physicality. What aspects of Ovechkins game is better than MSL?

MSL was a better playmaker, better in the playoffs, better defensively, better skater, smarter. Less selfish with the puck. MSL played the majority of his career on much worse teams than Ovechkin and still has 2x art ross trophies.

Ovechkin also spent the majority of his career choking in the playoffs, until Kuznetsov carried him to a cup win.



I don't agree with this at all. Maybe if Crosby was healthy in 10/11-12/13. Those were probably the easiest 3 scoring titles for him to win. As it stands, Crosby's 'domination' over his peers is at a lower level than Jagr and Lafleur. Much less McDavid.



No, he played bad. Malkin carried that team in the SCF, and no amount of coping can change that.

Well he’s a much better and more accomplished player, there’s that…

Better in the playoffs? Based on what? Better skater? Smarter?….he is better at checkers too?

You know how Malkin and Kessel “carried” Crosby to his cup wins? Is that how this works?..

 

[GreatGonzo]

I am not arguing that Crosby's performance in the 2009 SCF against the Wings was as good as McDavid's in the 2024 SCF vs. the Cats. Nor do I disagree that you can easily point the finger more at Draisaitl for the Oilers loss than McDavid. I already said the Crosby would have been critiqued for a Pens loss in 2009.

What I am arguing is that their overall playoff runs, 2009 vs. 2024, are closer that the raw numbers would indicate. Crosby through three rounds before the SCF was better than McDavid in 2024 through three rounds. McDavid was better in the SCF but not as good as his numbers indicate and Crosby was not as bad as his numbers would indicate.

2. Crosby's 2009 SCF performance is underrated based on point totals; McDavid's 2024 SCF performance is overrated based on point totals.



I would LOVE to hear your logic regarding the last Bolded statement. Not that you have explained yourself at all, it’s always been “because I say so.”

Read through this post and hoo boy. Not questioning your numbers but now we are supposed to factor in luck into a comparison?

Crosby's 2009 SCF against the Wings is by far the biggest albatross on his playoff resume; the go to for many arguing for McDavid.

Can we claim that he was just unlucky in that series and disregard that as a negative for Crosby?

The same way you measure “leadership” and being a “winner,”

“the go to.” Yet, you still say it’s underrated while McDavids is overrated…so there’s that..

How convenient

 

[Gorskyontario]

.he is better at checkers too?

Considering Ovechkin can barely string a sentence together, probably.

You know how Malkin and Kessel “carried” Crosby to his cup wins? Is that how this works?..

Malkin was definitely the reason they beat detroit in 09. I don't think that can be disputed by anymore.

 

[GreatGonzo]

Considering Ovechkin can barely string a sentence together, probably.



Malkin was definitely the reason they beat detroit in 09. I don't think that can be disputed by anymore.

I see, so you have no REAL evidence. It’s just a preference for you at this point. You would rather draft someone who speaks English better….because that’s a huge factor when it comes to hockey.

Considering Ovechkin can barely string a sentence together, probably.



Malkin was definitely the reason they beat detroit in 09. I don't think that can be disputed by anymore.

So Malkin did carry Crosby?

 

[Gorskyontario]

I see, so you have no REAL evidence. It’s just a preference for you at this point. You would rather draft someone who speaks English better….because that’s a huge factor when it comes to hockey.

So Malkin did carry Crosby?

I speak Russian. Ovechkin isn't much better in his first language.

Also what evidence do I really need that Ovechkin is a worse playmaker then MSL? lol. Just watch the games and look at their stats.


Did Malkin carry Crosby? In the 2009 scf absolutely. In 16/17 maybe I wouldn't use the word carried but he outscored him.

 

[GreatGonzo]

I speak Russian. Ovechkin isn't much better in his first language.

Also what evidence do I really need that Ovechkin is a worse playmaker then MSL? lol. Just watch the games and look at their stats.


Did Malkin carry Crosby? In the 2009 scf absolutely. In 16/17 maybe I wouldn't use the word carried but he outscored him.

Because again, language is an important factor in deciding who is and isn’t the better hockey player. .

I never stated such a thing. Nice strawman though.

You can give MSL the “better playmaker” crown. That’s fine. Ovechkin is still the superior player.

 

[Gorskyontario]

Because again, language is an important factor in deciding who is and isn’t the better hockey player. .

It goes a long way in explaining his lack of hockey sense.

 

[GreatGonzo]

It goes a long way in explaining his lack of hockey sense.

-Art Ross
-Calder
-3 Lindsays
-3 Harts
-Stanley cup
-conn smythe
-9 rockets(record)
-9 50 goal seasons(T1st)
-2nd overall in goals
-13th overall in points

Not to mention the numerous goal scoring records. Pretty good for someone “lacking hockey sense.”

 

[Professor What]

MSL is a borderline top 100 player of all time. Ovi is a top 20 player of all time. I'm not sure where there's a comparison at all.

 

[Gorskyontario]

-Art Ross
-Calder
-3 Lindsays
-3 Harts
-Stanley cup
-conn smythe
-9 rockets(record)
-9 50 goal seasons(T1st)
-2nd overall in goals
-13th overall in points

Not to mention the numerous goal scoring records. Pretty good for someone “lacking hockey sense.”

MSL is a borderline top 100 player of all time. Ovi is a top 20 player of all time. I'm not sure where there's a comparison at all.

Funny that MSL has twice as many scoring titles, and the same number of cups despite mostly playing on bad lightning teams.

 

[Professor What]

Funny that MSL has twice as many scoring titles, and the same number of cups despite mostly playing on bad lightning teams.

I mean, think what you want, but it must be lonely over there. A lot of smart people disagree with you.

 

[Gorskyontario]

A lot of smart people disagree with you.

I don't really agree with that statement, lol.

 

[Professor What]

I don't really agree with that statement, lol.

Well, you just insulted the entire HOH board. If that's your attitude, I'm glad I didn't go any deeper with you. It's not worth discussing with you.

 

[Gorskyontario]

Well, you just insulted the entire HOH board. If that's your attitude, I'm glad I didn't go any deeper with you. It's not worth discussing with you.

I don't really understand your post, so my apologies.

 

[Matsun]

Funny that MSL has twice as many scoring titles.

Top 15 points
OV 11
MSL 6

Top 10 in points:
OV 8
MSL 5

Top 5 in points:
OV 6
MSL 4

Top 3 in points:
OV 5
MSL 3

Top 2 in points:
OV 3
MSL 3

Art ross
OV 1
MSL 2

PPG leader
OV 3
MSL 1

This is only looking at points which should favor a playmaker like MSL over a goalscorer like OV, but they are not at the same level.

 

[daver]

No, he played bad. Malkin carried that team in the SCF, and no amount of coping can change that.

So when McDavid doesn't produce at ES, it's unlucky, when Crosby doesn't produce at ES, it's because he played bad.

 

[daver]

The luck I'm referring to is not in anyway related to whether or not Crosby's actual goals were lucky in any fashion, but is more accurately termed cluster luck. In Crosby's regular season career, he's been on-ice for 1151 goals at even strength, and his on-ice shooting percentage is 10.7%, which implies there have been 10757 shots on goal while Crosby has been on-ice at even strength between the 07-08 seasons and the 23-24 seasons. You can break that down into smaller buckets, whether that be 1000 shots, 100 shots, or 10 shots - you'd expect on average 107 goals in a 1000 shot sample, 10.7 goals in a 100 shot sample, and 1.07 goals in a 10 shot sample, but obviously you're not going to have exactly 1 goal every 10 shots in a random sample. In the 2018 playoffs, in a 109 shot sample, Crosby had 23 pucks go in, in the 2019/2021 playoffs, in a 112 shot sample, Crosby had 5 pucks go in. His expectation for those samples would be 11-12 goals, the differences between the samples is just variance, which you could also call randomness, or luck.

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

These are Crosby's official shot charts, regular season and playoffs, though we only have shot data from 09-10 on, where you have tiny sample sizes each year, and look at the variation year-over-year. You can look at the 2018 playoffs, and see just how few of each shot type we're dealing with. In an 11 shot sample of wrist shots, where Crosby expected to score 1.375, instead he scored 3. In the 12 games that year, Crosby went 2-2 on wraparounds, in the 119 other games in the sample, he had 4 total wraparound shots. I don't know how you credit those goals to anything but luck. In Crosby's 982 regular season games, he has 3 wraparound goals on 28 shots. It's a tiny tiny sample.

Ok, what about McDavid's 2022 performance? How much luck was involved in his 24 ES points in 16 games?

Or how about the Oilers batting almost .500 on the PP in 2023? How much luck was involved there?

I really don't get this angle. Prime Crosby was just as dominant vs. his peers as prime McDavid has been in the regular based on PPG dominance. Why wouldn't he have multiple individual series where he put up large number of points in 4 to 7 games?

That you can say he hypothetically doesn't do it over more games should have zero relevance in rating that individual performance.