Some Summertime Fun Comparing Crosby vs Mcdavid Best Playoff Runs

[Nathaniel]

Was giving it some thought and id like to compare Crosbys 08 playoffs with mcdavids 2024 directly with adjustments. Both are gretzkyesque as mcdavid was the third ever to hit 40 points while Crosby at only 20 as the leagues reigning mvp brought his team to the cup finals. Both led in points and assists. Both over APG. If someone can adjust sids 08 to 24 levels. I would be very interested

 

[MadLuke]

. If someone can adjust sids 08 to 24 levels. I would be very interested

For playoff scoring at teams playing specific set of opponent, this can be quite noisy.

One bad way to think about it, the top 20 scorer in 2008 averaged 89 pts and 1.13 ppg
Last year it was 104 and 1.30

If we remove the big 3 of 2024 and the top 2 of 2008 (has crosby would have been the missing third), because we consider the top 3 of 2024 special and rising the bar too much.

2024: 97.88 and 1.21 ppg
2008: 87.7 and 1.11ppg

Scoring among top player seem to be up around 10%, if we think that representative.... of the playoff scoring of the relative eras...

1.35*1.1 = 1.485ppg or 29.7 adjusted points in 20 games, 37pts in 25 pro-rated.
vs
42 pts in 25 games for McDavid (1.68ppg)

One way to grossly test that, in 2024 in the playoff teams scored at a 2.864 gpg rate in 2008 it was 2.682 (94% of the scoring rate)

2.682 * 1.1 = 2.95, so this would need to assume that top player scoring was more affected than overall scoring.

 

[Senor Catface]

Was giving it some thought and id like to compare Crosbys 08 playoffs with mcdavids 2024 directly with adjustments. Both are gretzkyesque as mcdavid was the third ever to hit 40 points while Crosby at only 20 as the leagues reigning mvp brought his team to the cup finals. Both led in points and assists. Both over APG. If someone can adjust sids 08 to 24 levels. I would be very interested

Whenever I'm trying to decide who is better, I just quote this guy.

 

[daver]

For playoff scoring at teams playing specific set of opponent, this can be quite noisy.

One bad way to think about it, the top 20 scorer in 2008 averaged 89 pts and 1.13 ppg
Last year it was 104 and 1.30

If we remove the big 3 of 2024 and the top 2 of 2008 (has crosby would have been the missing third), because we consider the top 3 of 2024 special and rising the bar too much.

2024: 97.88 and 1.21 ppg
2008: 87.7 and 1.11ppg

Scoring among top player seem to be up around 10%, if we think that representative.... of the playoff scoring of the relative eras...

1.35*1.1 = 1.485ppg or 29.7 adjusted points in 20 games, 37pts in 25 pro-rated.
vs
42 pts in 25 games for McDavid (1.68ppg)

One way to grossly test that, in 2024 in the playoff teams scored at a 2.864 gpg rate in 2008 it was 2.682 (94% of the scoring rate)

2.682 * 1.1 = 2.95, so this would need to assume that top player scoring was more affected than overall scoring.

It is difficult to put a hard number on how to "adjust" playoff numbers.

Here is another way to look at it.

The best playoff runs from '06 to '24 (min. 15 games):

https://www.nhl.com/stats/skaters?a...,gte,15&sort=pointsPerGame&page=0&pageSize=50

8 of the Top 11 point totals are from 2020 onwards, 9 of the Top 10 PPGs are from 2020 onwards.

If we only look at 2020 to 2024, McDavid has the clear best point total and best PPG, and the 3rd best PPG. Draisaitl is a close #2 in PPG and MacKinnon is a close #4 in PPG.

If we look at the five year stretch from 2007 to 2011, Malkin has the clear best point total and best PPG, Crosby is #2 in point total and #2 and #6 in PPG.

The point here is that Malkin's run is almost as statistically impressive as McDavid's run in terms of dominance vs. his peers, but is arguably just as impressive, or moreso, when some context around McDavid's SCF point totals is considered. Most people consider Crosby to be closer to Malkin than their point totals would indicate given the Wings threw their three world class defenders (Lidstrom, Zetterberg, and Datsyuk) out against Crosby's line, as they also did in 2008.

McDavid has the best four round performance between him and Crosby but it is worth noting that Crosby in 2009 has the superior playoff run going through three rounds than McDavid did in 2024. The prevailing narrative seems to be that because McDavid's 2022 performance was better than Crosby's 2009 performance on a per game basis, he was just as good in 2024; he just had a better team to get him to the SCF.

 

[blogofmike]

Most people consider Crosby to be closer to Malkin than their point totals would indicate given the Wings threw their three world class defenders (Lidstrom, Zetterberg, and Datsyuk) out against Crosby's line, as they also did in 2008.

Did the Wings actually match up against Crosby that stringently? Lidstrom needed testicular surgery after a spear from Sharp in the Western Finals. Datsyuk had foot or leg issues (perhaps we should say lower body?), and missed the start of the series.

Even when healthier, the Wings didn't seem to have much success is containing Anaheim's top line.

McDavid has the best four round performance between him and Crosby but it is worth noting that Crosby in 2009 has the superior playoff run going through three rounds than McDavid did in 2024. The prevailing narrative seems to be that because McDavid's 2022 performance was better than Crosby's 2009 performance on a per game basis, he was just as good in 2024; he just had a better team to get him to the SCF.

As opposed to having the better team to win in the Finals?

As for the 3-round thing, I don't see the point. 1993 Doug Gilmour was better through 3 rounds than McDavid and Crosby. All in all, Gilmour's run probably won't rank ahead of McDavid, and probably ranks ahead of Crosby.

 

[MadLuke]

The prevailing narrative seems to be that because McDavid's 2022 performance was better than Crosby's 2009 performance on a per game basis, he was just as good in 2024; he just had a better team to get him to the SCF.

2022 Colorado was a powerhouse, in the playoff you always face a team as well.

 

[Golden_Jet]

I thought this thread got locked because how dumb it was, someone is better because of 3 rounds.

 

[daver]

2022 Colorado was a powerhouse, in the playoff you always face a team as well.

There needs to be a bit context on McDavid's 2022 ECF numbers, similar to his SCF, "7 points in 4 games" hides the fact that he didn't really produce in that series until it was too late in Game 1 and until it was too late in the series as the Oilers were down 3-0.

But if your point is to strictly look at the per game performance regardless of what round his team went out on, that doesn't seem to pass the smell test given Crosby's performance through 3 rounds in 2009 and that his "3 points in 7 games" hides the fact that the Wings threw the kitchen sink at shutting Crosby's line ultimately to their detriment.

Again, no issue with saying McDavid has the playoff run in 2024 (although it is closer than the numbers would indicate) but there is a cake and eat it too feel when 2022 is also placed above Crosby's 2009.

I also think his 2008 performance is underrated a bit given the Pens were playing a lot more defensively that year as they were dominant on their way to SCF. Maybe he puts up more points if the Pens played more wide open but then they perhaps aren't as effective.