- Dec 12, 2017
- 26,043
- 12,476
Some teams play 4 in a row - VGK plays AZ four times in the 2nd week of the season.Yeah, I understand why it's happening, but don't think I'll be tuning in for all 56. I'll try though.
So, now that we know how many wins we can expect?
- Thread starter LEAFANFORLIFE23
- Start date
Our 49 wins in 2017/18 was a franchise record. Though obviously further back in the past there were no shootouts, and even further back fewer games. So it’s arguably more of a “best season since 2005”, when the shootout was introduced, as 2oo5-onwards wins are inflated relative to before. We sucked for a decade after the 04/05 lockout too, so that 49 win pace is more attainable than it sounds at first - most seasons, that’d put you someone around 5th in the league.
I like our team, and think our division is relatively weak. I think we’ll do about as well as we did in 2017/18 - which would be 33.5 wins over 56 games. So yeah, put me down for 32-35 wins (33.5 +/- 1.5).
I like our team, and think our division is relatively weak. I think we’ll do about as well as we did in 2017/18 - which would be 33.5 wins over 56 games. So yeah, put me down for 32-35 wins (33.5 +/- 1.5).
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HEAVY DUTY
"Nobody ever suspects the butterfly."
The problem really wasnt with the cap though, it was with maybe the worst backup goaltending in the league to go along with a former top 10 starter that slipped to a below average starter. No team can be successful with that. The Campbell move along with added depth from the Dell signing solves the former but we need Andersen to get back to being a quality starter if we want a shot at the cup this year.
Andersen has developed a habit of letting in soft goals the last year and a half that he just wasnt letting in his first few years with the team. He's playing for his contract this year though so lets see what hes got. Who knows how many points goaltending cost the team last year?10? 15? They around 15 one goal games (quick visual count, sorry if wrong) and that doesnt include games they had empty net goals scored against them.
Winning and losing certainly colours perceptions of a team but with such an obvious reason staring everyone in the face, I'm not sure why anyone would shift blame elsewhere, especially under Keefe as the team somehow still played .500 hockey in the calendar year despite the brutal goaltending and running a near AHL D squad at times due to injury.
Those are legitimate excuses. I don't think St.Louis won the cup storming back from last place in the league because the skaters somehow radically changed their game......It was obvious getting quality goalkeeping made all the difference.
Gonna bet that Andersen has a slight bounceback year though (back to an above average starter anyways) and the Leafs will not have nearly the injury issues they faced last season. Leaving aside the putrid goaltending, the team scored the most goals in the league under Keefe and underlying defensive numbers were the best they have been in years.
36-15-5 (.688) is my guess.
The playoffs are a different story of course but I dont expect we are going to see freak goaltending like the Jackets got 2 years in a row.....but who knows. Anything can happen in the playoffs.....including the Leafs winning the cup.
I’m not saying it’s impossible, but this would be a pace of 122 points (per 82 games), which would be first in the league most years. It’d be the 7th most points by any team all time, and the 2nd most since the 04/05 lockout. I like our team, but I don’t think we’re that good. Probably more like 5th in the league than 1st.
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Throw More Waffles
Unprecedented Dramatic Overpayments
- Oct 9, 2015
- 12,952
- 9,910
The leafs had 8 wins in 16 games after Campbell arrived. So that excuse doesn't work for me. If your rationale for that is that Andersen sucked... then yes, that precisely is what I'm worried about for next year. You're betting on an Andersen bounce back year, and you may be right. If so, I'd add 4 or 5 more wins to my estimate of 28. But if his last year performance trends for another season, i don't think the leafs even make the playoffs. That's why I landed in the middle on a safe 28-23-5 sneak into the playoffs. Anything can happen from there.
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Look at their D during that stretch at times:
Dermott/Holl
Marincin/Barrie
Sandin/Liljegren
Plus Andersen playing so poorly, half the board was calling for Campbell to replace him as the starter after a few games.
The team won 8/16 including 2 wins over Tampa?
Pretty great given the circumstances.
Throw More Waffles
Unprecedented Dramatic Overpayments
- Oct 9, 2015
- 12,952
- 9,910
This is my problem though. We look at last season based on the reality of what happened. And we look at this upcoming season based on what we hope will happen. That skews things.
There will be unfortunate injuries this year as well. Some new signings will underperform this year as well. Leaf fans seem to think that "the stars aligning" is what's normal, and anything less than that is bad luck. It's not true though.
The current champs just won the cup without their captain and 1B center over the entire playoffs (minus a couple periods). That's what I'd call "pretty great given the circumstances". If the leafs were without Tavares those last 16 games last year, look how remarkably quickly you would have jumped at that excuse. That leads to my other problem with this team. They seem to give up when faced with any form of adversity.
Notsince67
Papi and the Lamplighters
- Apr 27, 2018
- 16,376
- 11,467
7 of 10. The leafs will be the best team by far in this division but they will be hard won
So you really don't think not having an NHL caliber backup for most of last year is a valid excuse?
3.66 GAA 886 save% you can't blame the defense for that, that is not an NHL caliber goalie it would be different if he had multiple good stretches to look back on but other than 14-15 he really doesn't
Michael Hutchinson is really really bad at the NHL level
- Dec 12, 2017
- 26,043
- 12,476
I would also factor in the schedule. With all the back to back (to back) games it’s hard to get on a long winning , or losing, streak.
If any team wins 35 plus games, I would think the schedule played a factor. It makes a difference playing teams at the end of the schedule that are battling for playoff spots over teams that are out.
I highly doubt the Leafs will once again have the same level of injuries striking the weakest part of their team depth, mainly because they are a deeper team at all positions going into this season. Losing Tavares wouldnt have been much of an excuse with the Leafs deep forward core.
The current cup champs collapsed in the first round the year before with essentially the same team, not even winning a game. I get the impression you would have blown things up after that. Would you have? Looks like a team that was never going to sniff the cup right?
As far as "giving up" goes, I'm completely mystified by anyone saying this. Did they give up after the bad start and the coaching change or did they dig themselves out of the hole? Did they give up or play through their worse rash of injuries in years to make the post season? Did they give up in game 4 or complete the biggest Leafs comeback in living memory? Having the second most scoring chances/60 out of all the 24 teams against "the best D in the league" strikes me as fairly well motivated.
To attack their character in this way when the evidence shows the opposite is odd behavior from anyone who would call themselves a fan. Theres just no proof of it and its going to poison every other argument you make. When Korpisalo put up that NHL record save game against Tampa, Vasy's 61 saves kept them in it or things might have gone sideways in that series for the bolts as well. Tampa had to deal with the same insane goaltending we had to deal with except they had a keeper to match it. If they had Andersen in net during that series, a series in which every game was decided by one goal, would it be on "team character" if Andersen let in one of those goal line softies or would it just be a mistake by the goalkeeper that cost them a big game?
Just trying to understand your thought process here.
HEAVY DUTY
"Nobody ever suspects the butterfly."
if this was a normal NHL season i would agree with you wholeheartedly. since this season is only compromised of facing Canadian NHL teams only, i think the leafs will dominate IMO. hence why i put the Leafs record at 39-12-5.
I think the division will make a bigger difference in the playoffs than the regular season. For the playoffs, no Tampa or Boston is huge. But for the regular season, I don’t know that the average quality we face is that much lower. Last year our division had one legit terrible team (Detroit), and 2 fairly weak teams (Ottawa and Buffalo). This year we have zero terrible teams, and just 1 fairly weak team (Ottawa). Edmonton, Calgary, Winnipeg, Vancouver and Montreal are all teams that’d have a shot to make the playoffs in a normal year, none of those will be easy wins. Worth noting that last season, we were actually narrowly behind Edmonton in points percentage, and only narrowly ahead of Calgary, Vancouver and Winnipeg, I think people who see us as the best Canadian team by far are underrating the western Canadian teams.
No super hard games, but also fewer really easy games - overall, I don’t think the regular season will have that much lower average quality than normal. Not to the point that I think we’ll put up an elite, “1-2 teams per decade hit this” type record, despite being IMO a borderline top 5 team in the league. I think we have a good shot to win the division, but that’ll likely only take ~32 wins, not 39, which is a major difference in a 56 game season. 39-12-5 is possible, but I think quite unlikely.
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LeafsNation75
Registered User
Even last season when Toronto played Buffalo a total of four times, the season series was split 2-2 with the Leafs winning both games at home and losing both games on the road.
Good example of the parity in the league, and how (arguably) slightly weaker competition won’t make a big difference to our regular season record.
The Shadow
Registered User
- Feb 9, 2013
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LeafsNation75
Registered User
Even the three wins against Ottawa last season were close games.
On opening night they won 5-3 and at one point they were losing 1-0 and would have been trailing a second time if it wasn't for a coaches challenge because of an offside goal Ottawa scored that was waved off.
Their next game was a 2-1 win in overtime and they were also losing 1-0 midway through the 2nd period.
Their last game against them they won 4-2, although at one point they had a 3-0 lead and Ottawa made it a 3-2 game, before Marner scored their 4th goal into an empty net.
One thing I am looking forward is the forward lines from Keefe? No doubt there are more talents and depth than last season. AJ didn’t play much last season and he was pretty much a non factor when he did played. Kap is the only top 9 who left the group.
Jumbo, Vesey and Simmonds are better than Goat, Moore and Kap from a production standpoint. Having Hyman from the start will also be a factor.
Really looking forward to Keefe’s lines.
Jumbo, Vesey and Simmonds are better than Goat, Moore and Kap from a production standpoint. Having Hyman from the start will also be a factor.
Really looking forward to Keefe’s lines.
LeafsNation75
Registered User
Great point about Hyman and look at the stats he had last year after missing the start of last season.
It is a new season and anything can happen. As all the teams beside Oilers made key changes.
Flames added Markstorm-one of the top 3 goalies in the league. Tanev when healthy is a better Defensive Dman than TJ but he is injury prone and I think he will be pair with Hannifin instead of Gio.
Jets got Statsney, and I would say they have the most balance Top 6 in the division.
Nucks lost Marky and Tanev, and got Holtby and Schmidt. Their tandem of Holtby and Demko got questions but they will be the surprise.
Sens will be interesting, I think Murray will steal games here and there.
Habs will be relying on Price. Their forward is okay and their D is okay. With the intense schedule, I think Price will tires himself out by mid season.
LeafsNation75
Registered User
The Jets only got Stastny because Vegas needed to trade him due to the salary cap and so they could sign Pietrangelo. Plus what if the they also trade Laine, could they get back a decent package in return for him?
Either way, Jets is a better team with Stastny.
I do not know what type of package Jets can get from trading Laine. Is Jets planning to trade him?
LeafsNation75
Registered User
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