So, now that we know how many wins we can expect?

[Throw More Waffles]

You're expecting regression?

I’m expecting pretty much t same as last year. The young core is a year older... but so is Tavares. The big question mark is Andersen for me. If he’s great this year then that changes everything.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

They were one game above .500 last year. I’m the one being realistic here. The leafs will still solidly be one of the four teams in the playoffs.I’m baffled that someone could see me as being the unrealistic one.

It won’t let me edit out the italics .

I mean I think it's fair to expect more from this team especially since they won't have Hutchinson pissing away points say what you want about the defense they weren't great but they weren't bad enough to justify a 3.66 GAA and an 886 save% they weren't THAT bad

Campbell will make a difference as will Brodie

 

[Throw More Waffles]

I mean I think it's fair to expect more from this team especially since they won't have Hutchinson pissing away points say what you want about the defense they weren't great but they weren't bad enough to justify a 3.66 GAA and an 886 save% they weren't THAT bad

Campbell will make a difference as will Brodie

I hear the same thing every year. The "new" accusations will 100% work out... and we'll just forget that we said the precise same thing the year before. And the year before. And the year before.

I think this is what this team is. Too much money on 4 forwards, not enough money for depth in numerous other places. Works out to approximately last years record. So somewhere around 28-23-5.

Still make the playoffs... and you never know what can happen there.

 

[Menzinger]

I mean I think it's fair to expect more from this team especially since they won't have Hutchinson pissing away points say what you want about the defense they weren't great but they weren't bad enough to justify a 3.66 GAA and an 886 save% they weren't THAT bad

Campbell will make a difference as will Brodie

Yep. The difference in backup goaltending alone will make up for some of the bigger holes for the team to overcome; the improvements on the D too will be a net positive.

Id expect this team to be at at a 100-105 point pace (give or take a few) if it was a regular 82 game season

 

[BertCorbeau]

Yep. The difference in backup goaltending alone will make up for some of the bigger holes for the team to overcome; the improvements on the D too will be a net positive.

Id expect this team to be at at a 100-105 point pace (give or take a few) if it was a regular 82 game season

That'd by +/-70 points in a 56-game season.

Probably in the ballpark of 32-34 wins and 5-7 OT/SO losses

 

[hamzarocks]

The last time they won a division was 2000, and prior to that, 1963.

I'd be very glad to see them win this year but I expect them to be second, and possibly third.

Unlikely 3rd unless the changes failed and we have chemistry issues or injuries.

None of the 7 canadian teams in this division are a tier 1 contender. The leafs on paper are the closest have the deepest offense, and in the past a consistent quality 1G. We struggled in the past 2 years in closing games in the playoffs. Hoepfully guys like Jumbo Joe, Simmonds, Bogosian bring the vet prescense to help correct those issues.

The leafs have a clear path to 1st in the division. There isnt a Boston or tampa level team which will be very hard to compete with. If leafs dont finish 1st in the division it will be slightly disapointing if they dont get atleast 2nd it will be a bad regular season.

 

[ottomaddox]

35 wins is a good measure. The best teams win 62% of their games.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Unlikely 3rd unless the changes failed and we have chemistry issues or injuries.

None of the 7 canadian teams in this division are a tier 1 contender. The leafs on paper are the closest have the deepest offense, and in the past a consistent quality 1G. We struggled in the past 2 years in closing games in the playoffs. Hoepfully guys like Jumbo Joe, Simmonds, Bogosian bring the vet prescense to help correct those issues.

The leafs have a clear path to 1st in the division. There isnt a Boston or tampa level team which will be very hard to compete with. If leafs dont finish 1st in the division it will be slightly disapointing if they dont get atleast 2nd it will be a bad regular season.

Agreed, which is why I said 'possibly'.

I'm not sure Thornton and Simmonds have enough left to be difference makers, Andersen's problems are well documented, and I haven't yet seen the consistency I would like.

I certainly expect first or second, but I wouldn't be shocked if they ended up third, or even fourth. Disappointed, absolutely, but not shocked.

 

[Mess]

In 70 games last season the Leafs recorded 36 wins.

This season is 56 games in length so at that pace it equals 29 wins.

However this year the Leafs do not face most of the best/strongest( all USA based) teams in the league, and get to play Ottawa 9-10 games, so the level of strength competition goes down significantly in a much easier schedule.

The Canadian Div is like the CFL compared to the NFL level of strength of schedule in this Covid adjusted NHL World.

So I'd expect a ~ +15% improvement above last year ~50% win rate, so at 65% win rate it would = 36 wins matching last year but in 14 less games.

 

[Judas Tavares]

Winnipeg 7-2-1
Edmonton 6-2-1
Ottawa 6-2-1
Vancouver 5-4-1
Montreal 3-5-2
Calgary 4-5-0

31-20-6

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Winnipeg 7-2-1
Edmonton 6-2-1
Ottawa 6-2-1
Vancouver 5-4-1
Montreal 3-5-2
Calgary 4-5-0

31-20-6

That's low for Ottawa

That's low for Montreal, they are not getting 3 games against the backups, 2 of which are against Michael Hutchinson, the worst backup Toronto has had in AT LEAST 20 years.

Andersen/Campbell means not as many points are going to be shit away.

 

[BertCorbeau]

In 70 games last season the Leafs recorded 36 wins.

This season is 56 games in length so at that pace it equals 29 wins.

However this year the Leafs do not face most of the best/strongest( all USA based) teams in the league, and get to play Ottawa 9-10 games, so the level of strength competition goes down significantly in a much easier schedule.

The Canadian Div is like the CFL compared to the NFL level of strength of schedule in this Covid adjusted NHL World.

So I'd expect a ~ +15% improvement above last year ~50% win rate, so at 65% win rate it would = 36 wins matching last year but in 14 less games.

TBH the Central Division is weaker. There's Tampa, and then a whole bunch of meh (including Dallas who didn't have that great of a regular season).

The East is a beast of a division. Buffalo and New Jersey are going to get thrashed. The Rangers will be in tough as well.

The West is a mix of elite (Vegas, St Louis, Colorado) and bad.

Really the Canadian Division doesn't have elite teams. They have a lot of really good to mediocre, and then Ottawa. But even Ottawa should be a bit better. I'd actually expect this division to be the closest, top to bottom, it term of overall point spread by the end of the year. A lot of competition for playoff spots, as it will be tight.

I do expect the Leafs to be near the top though.

 

[IPS]

I’m expecting pretty much t same as last year. The young core is a year older... but so is Tavares. The big question mark is Andersen for me. If he’s great this year then that changes everything.

You're expecting another injury disaster with the team? The 16/17 Tampa team missed playoffs, would it have been logical to "expect the same as last year" going into their 17/18 season?

 

[MapleLeafs9]

30 wins.

30-21-5.

Not giving this team the benefit of the doubt of being anything other than middling after the comedy that was last season.

Although it's still disappointing we lost in the qualifying round, lets not forget we were a much better team last season once Babcock was fired.

I expect us to be much better this season. Especially with the signings of Brodie and other vets, and defensive shit shows like Ceci and Barrie gone.

 

[Mess]

TBH the Central Division is weaker. There's Tampa, and then a whole bunch of meh (including Dallas who didn't have that great of a regular season).

The East is a beast of a division. Buffalo and New Jersey are going to get thrashed. The Rangers will be in tough as well.

The West is a mix of elite (Vegas, St Louis, Colorado) and bad.

Really the Canadian Division doesn't have elite teams. They have a lot of really good to mediocre, and then Ottawa. But even Ottawa should be a bit better. I'd actually expect this division to be the closest, top to bottom, it term of overall point spread by the end of the year. A lot of competition for playoff spots, as it will be tight.

I do expect the Leafs to be near the top though.

If the Leafs can stay healthy, I can't see the Leafs finishing any lower then 2nd in the CDN Div.

If you look at last years standings the top 10 teams all play in the USA, so the CDN Div comprises 7 of the bottom 21 teams, so there will be parity but the level of competition will be a drop off missing most of the best teams from the schedule.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

You're expecting another injury disaster with the team? The 16/17 Tampa team missed playoffs, would it have been logical to "expect the same as last year" going into their 17/18 season?

Tampa just won the cup without Steven Freaking Stamkos. Good teams learn overcome adversity. I think the leafs will always fall back on excuses. They’ll be mediocre this year (as I said, something like 28-23-5) and there will be a whole new batch of excuses. There ALWAYS are.

for two straight calendar years, the leafs have barely been a .500 team (Jan 2019-Jan 2021) It’s insane that I’m the one being portrayed as being unreasonable.

 

[MapleLeafs9]

Tampa just won the cup without Steven Freaking Stamkos. Good teams learn overcome adversity. I think the leafs will always fall back on excuses. They’ll be mediocre this year (as I said, something like 28-23-5) and there will be a whole new batch of excuses. There ALWAYS are.

for two straight calendar years, the leafs have barely been a .500 team. It’s insane that I’m the one being portrayed as being unreasonable.

That's literally his point? TB was a good team that was injured as hell the year they missed the playoffs. We were in a similar position last season with all the injuries yet still managed to be a solid team under Keefe.

We were 27-15-5 after Keefe took over. Our mediocre play the past 2 years came from Babcock's stubbornness which got him fired. I think you're just a very scorned fan lol. We have a lot to be positive about this season.

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

I'm going high here, I thonk we take advantage of 6 teams with bigger flaws than we have. Matthews/Marner/Nylander begin to enter their prime years. 36-38 wins this year.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Tampa just won the cup without Steven Freaking Stamkos. Good teams learn overcome adversity. I think the leafs will always fall back on excuses. They’ll be mediocre this year (as I said, something like 28-23-5) and there will be a whole new batch of excuses. There ALWAYS are.

for two straight calendar years, the leafs have barely been a .500 team (Jan 2019-Jan 2021) It’s insane that I’m the one being portrayed as being unreasonable.

You have a team with as the Leafs have finishing 500.

You have chosen to completely ignore the fact that they no longer have a 3.66 GAA and an 886 save% backup in net pissing away points, say what you want about the defense they weren't great but they aren't THAT f***ing bad.

Sometimes you need a save, Hutchinson couldn't do it.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

You have a team with as the Leafs have finishing 500.

You have chosen to completely ignore the fact that they no longer have a 3.66 GAA and an 886 save% backup in net pissing away points, say what you want about the defense they weren't great but they aren't THAT f***ing bad.

Sometimes you need a save, Hutchinson couldn't do it.

I’ve never been an Andersen critic (and lord knows I’m a critic about MANY leaf things), but something looked off with his game last year. Has me worried.

If Andersen is back to form, I agree the leafs will probably get more than 28 wins. But not much more.

again, I think half the cap on 4 forwards is not sustainable, and the team will always be mediocre under this model. The Tampa comparisons don’t work because their star players took team friendly deals while the leafs players clearly didn’t.

 

[IPS]

Tampa just won the cup without Steven Freaking Stamkos. Good teams learn overcome adversity. I think the leafs will always fall back on excuses. They’ll be mediocre this year (as I said, something like 28-23-5) and there will be a whole new batch of excuses. There ALWAYS are.

for two straight calendar years, the leafs have barely been a .500 team (Jan 2019-Jan 2021) It’s insane that I’m the one being portrayed as being unreasonable.

That's not the point. There's lots of external factors that can screw over a team's season, the Tampa season I referenced is just one of many examples.. I see no reason why the team won't return to the 100-105 point level of play. Your take just seems overly-pessimistic.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

I’ve never been an Andersen critic (and lord knows I’m a critic about MANY leaf things), but something looked off with his game last year. Has me worried.

If Andersen is back to form, I agree the leafs will probably get more than 28 wins. But not much more.

again, I think half the cap on 4 forwards is not sustainable, and the team will always be mediocre under this model. The Tampa comparisons don’t work because their star players took team friendly deals while the leafs players clearly didn’t.

You didn't actually read my post before you responded, I didn't mention Andersen at all, I mentioned Hutchinson won't be there to piss away points

 

[Throw More Waffles]

You didn't actually read my post before you responded, I didn't mention Andersen at all, I mentioned Hutchinson won't be there to piss away points

My point is I’m a little worried about Andersen pissing away points.
The leafs are always a .500 team (due to half the cap on 4 forwards) with excuses attached. My best guess is this years excuse/scapegoat will be Andersen.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

That's not the point. There's lots of external factors that can screw over a team's season, the Tampa season I referenced is just one of many examples.. I see no reason why the team won't return to the 100-105 point level of play. Your take just seems overly-pessimistic.

Yes, there are many factors at play when determining why a team is always around .500. The most important factor? Half the cap on 4 forwards.

 

[MapleLeafs9]

Yes, there are many factors at play when determining why a team is always around .500. The most important factor? Half the cap on 4 forwards.

Except we are 82-53-17 since spending half the cap on 4 forwards? That's not even close to .500?

27-15-5 since Keefe took over by the way, thats .628 hockey. I pointed it out to you earlier but you ignored it to continue arguing your false narrative.