So.. Edmonton has to be the favorites coming out of the west, right?

[CantHaveTkachev]

Somebody email the NHL and let them know that they need to stop using goals to determine who wins the games; that stat is just too fancy.

only 5-on-5 goals matter to you for some reason...ignoring everything else

 

[JoeThorntonsRooster]

you realize there more to hockey than 5-on-5 play right?

Stone isn't even an elite PP point producer....how can he be a better player when he only excels in one area?

Drai and McDavid have more ESP and PPP than Stone but Stone is better cause he's better in 1 area? come on

Stone isn't better in one area, he's better in the sum of the areas that contribute to 5-on-5 goal differential. And he's so much better that it outweighs the fact that McDavid does indeed bring more value on the PP.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

you're really discrediting the contributions of RNH and Yamamoto as well as the goalie tandem and the PK...wow

not close to the favorites I agree, but the Pacific is wide open

better teams than the Oilers in the West:
Avs
Blues
Stars
Golden Knights

Yes.. I know. Yams and Nuge have been great since being united with the guy running away with the Art Ross.

(Dont get me wrong, I love them).

But I guess this team is sort of built like a "Glass Cannon".

I legitimately think we can beat any team. But at the same time, we could also get beaten by any team.
We might actually be the one team that could beat St.Louis... or we might get swept by Arizona.

I think due to McDrai, we might be the biggest WTF team in the playoffs.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

I’m just glad it’s looking like we will get to watch Edmonton with McDavid and Draisaitl in the postseason. It’s a shame for talent like that to miss out in that stage.

 

[Chips]

Lol no the oilers aren’t. They had a great trade deadline and have improved *relative to where they were*. They still lack depth (and we need to see how the new guys adjust) and aren’t even leading an awful division in an overall pretty bad conference.

Blues for certain are up top assuming healthy. I’m inclined to assume VGK are number two in the playoffs until I see them have a really bad round.


Don’t get me wrong, I’ve wanted McDavid in the playoffs and I’m looking forward to as much entertaining hockey that he can bring, but it’s wayyyy too early to call Edmonton a top team.

 

[JoeThorntonsRooster]

only 5-on-5 goals matter to you for some reason...ignoring everything else

Nobody ever said that but 5-on-5 play is the most important aspect of the game by far and Stone is so much better than either of them at 5-on-5 that it outweighs the gap between their special teams ability and this is reflected by catch-all metrics like GAR.

 

[IceNeophyte]

And now. Colorado has an argument for being favored over St. Louis, Vegas does not.

Except Vegas's 2-1 record over StL, maybe. 1-1 record before VGK emerged out of its funk.

Colorado always has to have the "if healthy" asterisk. They've done an amazing job through injuries, but it's going to wear on them as the season closes.

 

[CupofOil]

Well, unless the objective of hockey is no longer to out-score the opposition, it's a fact that the Senators with Stone on the ice in his final 3 years with Ottawa are better than the Oilers with McDavid or Draisaitl over the past 3 seasons...

View attachment 326715

View attachment 326717

Why wouldn't I believe that Stone has been better? Do you think these numbers aren't fact?

"Outscoring" is a flawed individual stat because goals for and against have far more to do with the 6 skaters on the ice as a whole than any individual.
There's also factors like empty net goals against, quality of competition, time on ice (in McDrai's case, way too many minutes), linemates, most common D pairings, goaltending and I can go on and on.
Not to mention that you're ignoring Special Teams completely.

It seems like you take these stats as gospel and refuse to see the other side of the argument even when it's the overwhelming consensus much like SOME in the advanced stats community so I'll just leave it at an agree to disagree.

 

[President Skroob]

Except Vegas's 2-1 record over StL, maybe. 1-1 record before VGK emerged out of its funk.

Colorado always has to have the "if healthy" asterisk. They've done an amazing job through injuries, but it's going to wear on them as the season closes.

But you'll ignore St. Louis' funk and the friendly OT penalty. I'll go with the full season of reality.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

Nobody ever said that but 5-on-5 play is the most important aspect of the game by far and Stone is so much better than either of them at 5-on-5 that it outweighs the gap between their special teams ability and this is reflected by catch-all metrics like GAR.

except you never showed GAR

you said Stone is better because of 1 metric...5-on-5 outscoring

you completely ignore the other aspects of hockey like special teams (which are vital) because it doesn't fit your narrative

 

[Kranix]

Stone isn't better in one area, he's better in the sum of the areas that contribute to 5-on-5 goal differential. And he's so much better that it outweighs the fact that McDavid does indeed bring more value on the PP.

I don't really have an understanding of analytics. By goals you mean goals the team scored while he was on the ice? After a certain point it seems pretty nebulous...
Because the team scored a goal with him on the ice, that he didn't have a goal, primary or secondary assist on, he had a hand in creating the goal? By him chipping the puck out of danger here, or skating and deking there?
Is that what the stats say?

 

[JoeThorntonsRooster]

"Outscoring" is a flawed individual stat because goals for and against have far more to do with the 6 skaters on the ice as a whole than any individual.
There's also factors like empty net goals against, quality of competition, time on ice (in McDrai's case, way too many minutes), linemates, most common D pairings, goaltending and I can go on and on.

It seems like you take these stats as gospel and refuse to see the other side of the argument even when it's the overwhelming consensus much like SOME in the advanced stats community so I'll just leave it at an agree to disagree.

I agree that outscoring is a flawed individual stat, but I want to be clear that I'm only using 5-on-5 data, so empty net goals against are actually not included here.

Fortunately, we have many individual stats that aren't as flawed as out-scoring, and give us a better idea as to why a team is out-scoring another team to the degree that they are. Just about all of them show that Mark Stone has a much stronger impact at even strength than McDavid, and that McDavid's superior PP impact isn't enough to close the gap. These contextual factors that you've mentioned were actually much harsher to Stone during his time in Ottawa than they were to the Oilers duo over the past 3 seasons, he just out-performed them in spite of it, because he is the better hockey player.

I can't refuse to see the other side of the argument when literally nobody in this thread has even provided me with an argument as to why McDavid and/or Draisaitl are better players than Mark Stone. I don't really care what the overwhelming consensus is.

 

[Coffey]

because it doesn't fit your narrative

This is the cause of 99% cherrypicked stats in arguments on HF.

 

[IceNeophyte]

But you'll ignore St. Louis' funk and the friendly OT penalty. I'll go with the full season of reality.

A penalty is a penalty. Vegas has had its share of PKs, overtime and otherwise.

I'll definitely say the Blues and Colorado (if healthy) look like stronger contenders than Vegas, but I don't think the gap is as wide as you do.

 

[KlefDown]

absolute low IQ arguments.

there is not one guy in the NHL, past present or future, who would think Stone is better than McDavid

imagine being educated in statistics and still coming to the wrong conclusions

 

[McDavidCrushedLarkin]

man this guy enjoys offering himself up as a punching bag.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

I can't refuse to see the other side of the argument when literally nobody in this thread has even provided me with an argument as to why McDavid and/or Draisaitl are better players than Mark Stone. I don't really care what the overwhelming consensus is.

both are better because they produce more points at ES and PP

and since 5-on-5 "outscoring" varies from usage by the coach, teammates, opposition, zone starts and the strength of the goalies...it's a useless stat due to too many variables

 

[JoeThorntonsRooster]

I don't really have an understanding of analytics. By goals you mean goals the team scored while he was on the ice? After a certain point it seems pretty nebulous...
Because the team scored a goal with him on the ice, that he didn't have a goal, primary or secondary assist on, he had a hand in creating the goal? By him chipping the puck out of danger here, or skating and deking there?
Is that what the stats say?

I apologize because I really do not want to be nebulous at all.

Over Mark Stone's final 3 seasons in Ottawa, the Senators controlled 56.49% of the goals that were scored at 5-on-5 when Stone was on the ice. Their goal differential, per-60 minutes, was +0.79.

Over the past 3 seasons, the Oilers have controlled 50.56% of the goals that have been scored when Connor McDavid and/or Leon Draisaitl were on the ice. Their goal differential, per 60 minutes, has been +0.07.

Over this same sample, when Stone, McDavid, and Draisaitl were all on the bench, the Oilers did better than the Senators.

Serious question: Why is it so hard to reconcile, given this information, that Stone may be a better hockey player than either of them?

 

[BCNate]

Probably have the easiest path to round 3 of any team in the playoffs.

Both teams that they play in round 1 and 2 will be saying the exact same thing.

Blues are the obvious favorites in the west, then I'd have Dallas, Vegas Colorado. It's wide open this year, so whoever the other 4 are that get in will all have a chance at a solid run.

As a Canucks fan, I'd far rather play the Oilers than the Flames or Knights in round 1.

 

[BlueDream]

Lmao no.

STL, Colorado, Dallas and Vegas are all much more dangerous in a playoff series. Heck even Vancouver and Nashville might be better than the Oilers too.

 

[JoeThorntonsRooster]

both are better because they produce more points at ES and PP

and since 5-on-5 "outscoring" varies from usage by the coach, teammates, opposition, zone starts and the strength of the goalies...it's a useless stat due to too many variables

Have you not considered that producing points at ES and PP also varies from usage by the coach, teammates, opposition, zone starts, strength of opposing goalies? The big difference being that points completely ignore defensive play.

 

[Tairy Greene]

West is wide open. Blues have to be considered the favorite though

 

[CupofOil]

I agree that outscoring is a flawed individual stat, but I want to be clear that I'm only using 5-on-5 data, so empty net goals against are actually not included here.

Fortunately, we have many individual stats that aren't as flawed as out-scoring, and give us a better idea as to why a team is out-scoring another team to the degree that they are. Just about all of them show that Mark Stone has a much stronger impact at even strength than McDavid, and that McDavid's superior PP impact isn't enough to close the gap. These contextual factors that you've mentioned were actually much harsher to Stone during his time in Ottawa than they were to the Oilers duo over the past 3 seasons, he just out-performed them in spite of it, because he is the better hockey player.

I can't refuse to see the other side of the argument when literally nobody in this thread has even provided me with an argument as to why McDavid and/or Draisaitl are better players than Mark Stone. I don't really care what the overwhelming consensus is.

I know you might not want to hear this but all you have to do is watch them play to see that McDavid and Draisaitl have a bigger impact than Stone. As I said before, "outscoring" is more team based than individual based and McDrai have had arguably the worst supporting cast in the league the last couple of years before this one or hell, even in '16-'17.
This kind of reminds me of the Toews is better than Malkin and Ovechkin days when people were citing his superior 2 way play as evidence of his superiority.

Advanced stats are a useful tool but sometimes there's instances when you throw away the underlying stats and use common sense. This is one of them.

 

[LetsGoBLUES91]

Blues aside who get that title due to being the recent champs I guess, but Edmonton looks legit now, and I think there are a few factors.

- Weak pacific division means in theory, they should have one of the easiest 1st and maybe 2nd rounds out of the entire league aside from whoever facing the 3rd spot in the Atlantic.

- Draisatl has come alive and is legit. Yammo has fit like a glove with him, and they have two legit superstars better than any two currently playing (yes better than Sido and Geno in their current form).

- McDavid is back and healthy and finally has wingers. This is the first time the Oilers have a legit top 6 in a decade.

- 1st PP in the league and 2nd best PK. In general, being top 5 in both is an indicator of playoff success.

- Then you look at what Draisatl produces the last time they made the playoffs, and realize McDavid is in his prime now.

I'm not sure there is a team out west that can stop the Oilers. Have to imagine that they should be a lock for at least the WCF, and if they do not make the finals, it will be in a hard fought series deep in the playoffs.

I personally, don't think there is a better team out west and they are likely one of the favorites if they played in the east. Maybe they are only stopped by a more experienced team from the east if they make the finals like Tampa or the Pens.

I mean they CAN win it but favorites? Are you kidding?

STL and COL are the favorites. Then there's Dallas and Vegas. And then Edmonton. I think those 5 could all win it. But Edmonton is hardly the favorite.

 

[McDavidCrushedLarkin]

I apologize because I really do not want to be nebulous at all.

Over Mark Stone's final 3 seasons in Ottawa, the Senators controlled 56.49% of the goals that were scored at 5-on-5 when Stone was on the ice. Their goal differential, per-60 minutes, was +0.79.

Over the past 3 seasons, the Oilers have controlled 50.56% of the goals that have been scored when Connor McDavid and/or Leon Draisaitl were on the ice. Their goal differential, per 60 minutes, has been +0.07.

Over this same sample, when Stone, McDavid, and Draisaitl were all on the bench, the Oilers did better than the Senators.

Serious question: Why is it so hard to reconcile, given this information, that Stone may be a better hockey player than either of them?

Because of the other 18 or 19 players in the game contributing to the stats you're trying to take a narrow snapshot view of?