So.. Edmonton has to be the favorites coming out of the west, right?

[blankall]

It looks like you are comparing Chicago's second liners to Edmonton's third liners.

Edmonton's current 3rd liners spent much of the beginning of the season playing with McDavid/Draisaitl. The Oilers don't really have a set top 2/bottom 2 lines. They have McDavid and/or Draisaitl on for most the game and cycle wingers around them. They give whoever is hot time of the PP.

For example, calling Neal a "third liner" and stating he has 20 goals is totally unfair, as all but 1 or 2 of those goals were assisted by McDavid and/or Draisaitl.

 

[blankall]

I wouldn't say that's their only strength. McDavid and Draisaitls entire line is our strengths. I still think Chicago spanks Edmonton even strength. Edmonton can win if Chicago takes penalties

Entire lines? Having guys like Kassian and Ennis in your top 6 is a strength?

 

[wretched34]

Let's look at both teams bottom 6
Chicago has what when healthy, Nylander, Dach, Caggiula, Shaw, Smith, Kampf? They put up what 42 goals combined?

Edmontons bottom 6 when healthy is AA, Archibald, Sheahan, Neal, Khaira and Chiasson and they put up 67 goals this year.

Chicago's definitely had the potential but this year Edmonton's put up the numbers. That said, that wasn't on display against eachother this year.

You're ignoring the point that you're responding too, in that the Oilers bottom 6 that you have listed, really don't do much without McDavid, Draisaitl or Nuge. Who are not in the bottom 6. So, essentially, the bottom 6 comparisons are production of guys while playing top 6, vs bottom 6. It does go both ways, as no team has specific top 6 and bottom 6, guys are always moving up and down the depth charts.

So, here is an accurate comparison, using only points scored with the respective teams.

The Oilers bottom 6 you have listed are:
Neal
Athanasiou
Archibald
Sheahan
Khaira
Chiasson

They have combined for 57 team goals, and 103 points. But lets be realistic, Neal didn't get his points in the bottom 6, neither did Chiasson.
Of the 103 combined points from these players, 68 were scored at Even Strength, 30 on the powerplay (Neal 17, Chiasson 13) and 5 Short handed.
Of the 103 points, 65 were scored while one or more of McDavid, Draisaitl or Nugent-Hopkins were on the ice, 38 were scored without.

On the other side, Chicago breaks down like this:
Nylander
Dach
Caggiula
Shaw
Smith
Kampf

They combined for 42 team goals and 101 points.
Of the 101 combined, 89 were scored at even strength, 8 on the powerplay and 4 shorthanded
Of the 101 points, 51 were scored while one or more of Kane, Toews and DeBrincat were on the ice, 50 were scored without.

This clearly shows that Chicagos bottom 6 produce more effectively (49.5% of their points vs 36.9%) as a bottom 6 unit, while also producing 88.1% of their points at even strength vs the oilers 66%

Anyone who has watched the Oilers play, even a handful of games, knows they are a 2 man team, with 2 or 3 support pieces. They do not have depth beyond a Powerplay unit.

 

[CycloneSweep]

Entire lines? Having guys like Kassian and Ennis in your top 6 is a strength?

No no. McDavid himself and then the RNH - Draisaitl - Yamamoto line.

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

The breaks been going on so long that Blackhawks fans are dreaming about the playoffs likes it’s 2014-2015.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

Season Series Edmonton against Chicago
Shot Differential: -24
Goal Differential: -1
PP: 3/7
PK: 8/8

Edmonton a Special Teams spanked Chicago but Chicago dominated Oilers 5v5 Oilers were a -4 5v5 against Chicago. If the series is like most playoffs where refs put the whistles away, that advantage for the Oilers vanishes and puts Chicago firmly in the driver seat. If special teams do come into play, Edmonton makes the series much closer.

well that's a myth...last year:

avg. pp/game in the regular season = 2.89

avg. PP/game in the playoffs= 3.08

NHL.com Stats

NHL.com Stats

 

[Spoilers]

If the Oilers started the season with the roster they have now they’d likely be 1st in the west. Yamamoto was a huge addition when he got called up. He was the missing piece in the top 6. McDavid can carry around whoever but the RNH-Drai-Yamo line was nuts.

 

[majormajor]

Edmonton's current 3rd liners spent much of the beginning of the season playing with McDavid/Draisaitl. The Oilers don't really have a set top 2/bottom 2 lines. They have McDavid and/or Draisaitl on for most the game and cycle wingers around them. They give whoever is hot time of the PP.

For example, calling Neal a "third liner" and stating he has 20 goals is totally unfair, as all but 1 or 2 of those goals were assisted by McDavid and/or Draisaitl.

Neal isn't even a third liner at evens. He's a fourth liner, or a healthy scratch.

The Oilers absolutely have a set line, it was the league's best line from New Years on. RNH and Yamamoto were at or above a point per game since joining Draisaitl. Yamamoto scored at the same pace as Kubalik, RNH exceeded Toews, and Draisaitl was well ahead of Kane.

McDavid gets lesser wingers, perhaps Kassian or Ennis. It's true they won't score much without him but the relevant thing here is what they do with him.

I do prefer the Hawks scoring ability in the bottom six but it's not necessarily playoff style guys. The Hawks leftover scorers that end up on the third line - perhaps a couple of Dach, Nylander, and DeBrincat - are not necessarily guys you trust at this point to battle through in intense playoff games. We'll see. I feel about them the way I do about Athanasiou.

The more important playoff style guys might be like Andrew Shaw for the Hawks, and Chiasson and Archibald for the Oilers. Ultimately the Hawks might have a better third line I just don't think it is on the same scale of an issue compared to the top six discrepancy.

 

[Lt Dan]

No
Edmonton will get smoked by St Louis or Colorado if that make it that far

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

Except that several of those Edmonton players you've mentioned actually played in the top 6 with McDavid and Draisaitl. Neal scored almost exclusively while playing with McDavid/Draisaitl. AA scored 10 of his goals while playing in Detroit in a top 6 role. AA has 1 goal and 1 assist in Edmonton. Both were also assisted by McDavid.

As for the Chicago players you've listed, Shaw played 26 games, Cagguila played 40 games, and Smith played 50.

You've taken a bunch of players who got tap ins playing with McDavid and compared their stats to a bunch of players, most of whom didn't play anywhere close to a full season.

Chicago is the much deeper team and it's not close. If you swapped out McDavid/Draisaitl for Kane/Towes, Chicago would look like favorites IMO. Edmonton would not be a playoff team.

gee, the way you talk about the Hawks, you'd think they were a top team and not 23rd overall...

Edmonton's only strength is McDavid/Draisaitl. McDavid is a winner, but so is Kane. I think it'll be a good series.

oh that's it? lol

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Matthews is better than Draisaitl. Way better!

McDavid will be a Leaf once he is a UFA. He will come home. Do your remember when he cried on public TV when Edmonton won the draft lottery.

Matthews pantsdropped/60 kicks the shit out of Draisaitl's, that's about it.

 

[McDavidCrushedLarkin]

Matthews is better than Draisaitl. Way better!

McDavid will be a Leaf once he is a UFA. He will come home. Do your remember when he cried on public TV when Edmonton won the draft lottery.

9/10 entertainment value
1/10 fact based

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Oilers should beat the Hawks as they are better. But this year in a short series anything can happen. All it takes is a couple of bad bounces or a hot goalie and you’re hitting the golf course.

 

[Mcnotloilersfan]

When you're holding out Josh Archibald as "depth" you're pulling at straws. No one considers Archibald the type of depth that results in a Stanley Cup.

Several of the other guys you've listed don't score unless stapled to McDavid, which is kind of the point people are making. The Oilers don't have many forwards that can generate their own offence, when McDavid and Draisaitl aren't gifting it to them.

That being said, the Oilers will be able to roll out two competent scoring lines, which is how they've played all season. Hence why McDavid was getting up to 27 minutes of TOI some games, which is absurd for a forward.

I'd also take Chicago's depth over the Oilers any day: Dach, Strome, Kubalik, DeBrincat, and Nylander has much more potential.

Again. McDavid and Drai are part of the Oilers depth whether people like it or not. I take Edmonton's roster today over Chicago's.

 

[blankall]

Neal isn't even a third liner at evens. He's a fourth liner, or a healthy scratch.

The Oilers absolutely have a set line, it was the league's best line from New Years on. RNH and Yamamoto were at or above a point per game since joining Draisaitl. Yamamoto scored at the same pace as Kubalik, RNH exceeded Toews, and Draisaitl was well ahead of Kane.

McDavid gets lesser wingers, perhaps Kassian or Ennis. It's true they won't score much without him but the relevant thing here is what they do with him.

I do prefer the Hawks scoring ability in the bottom six but it's not necessarily playoff style guys. The Hawks leftover scorers that end up on the third line - perhaps a couple of Dach, Nylander, and DeBrincat - are not necessarily guys you trust at this point to battle through in intense playoff games. We'll see. I feel about them the way I do about Athanasiou.

The more important playoff style guys might be like Andrew Shaw for the Hawks, and Chiasson and Archibald for the Oilers. Ultimately the Hawks might have a better third line I just don't think it is on the same scale of an issue compared to the top six discrepancy.

And how many goals did Neal score from New Years on? (the answer is zero) He got all of his goals playing with McDavid/Draisaitl in the first half the season. So stating that Edmonton's bottom six has X amount of goals and Chicago's has less is straight up disingenuous.

wretched34 did a great job of breaking it down above. The math doesn't lie. Chicago's bottom six is just better. Edmonton's bottom six relied heavily on getting assist from McDavid and/or Draisaitl for their points.

I like Yamamoto and RNH, but don't think either are all that different than depth players you'd find on any team. The big issue for Edmonton is how quickly things fall off after those 2.

 

[blankall]

Again. McDavid and Drai are part of the Oilers depth whether people like it or not. I take Edmonton's roster today over Chicago's.

We are talking about "depth", which involves looking at quality through the lineup. The Oilers have the best top 2 forwards in the league, no doubt. They may have the worst depth though.

 

[WATTAGE4451]

Let's look at both teams bottom 6
Chicago has what when healthy, Nylander, Dach, Caggiula, Shaw, Smith, Kampf? They put up what 42 goals combined?

Edmontons bottom 6 when healthy is AA, Archibald, Sheahan, Neal, Khaira and Chiasson and they put up 67 goals this year.

Chicago's definitely had the potential but this year Edmonton's put up the numbers. That said, that wasn't on display against eachother this year.

Sone of those bottom 6 guys you mentioned were top 6 most the season and thus benefited from playing with mcdacid, draidayl or at least nugent-hopkins and wouldnt have had as many goals without them.

A lot of neals were powerplay as well

 

[Mr Positive]

We are talking about "depth", which involves looking at quality through the lineup. The Oilers have the best top 2 forwards in the league, no doubt. They may have the worst depth though.

except that was only true last year. No team can make the playoffs without depth. Just look at how much better this year's team is, and btw McDavid is a step worse since this is his recovery year from that fracture.

RNH and Yamamoto are true impact top six players this year.

Adding Bear to our D has made it a deep group more capable of offense. Jones was getting better and better too. Larsson has found his game again. We added Green

We added Anathasiou, who just has to start clicking and there's another established talent. Nygard got injured just as he was getting good, and he'll be back.

Our bottom six took time this season to form, but it is wayyy better than last year's. Not amazing, but solid. Sheehan and Archibald are great checkers and PKers this year for us.

 

[Bank Shot]

Sone of those bottom 6 guys you mentioned were top 6 most the season and thus benefited from playing with mcdacid, draidayl or at least nugent-hopkins and wouldnt have had as many goals without them.

A lot of neals were powerplay as well

Same can be said for the Chicago guys...

 

[blankall]

Same can be said for the Chicago guys...

It actually can't....as stated above, it's been mathematically proven that the Chicago bottom six is more productive:

You're ignoring the point that you're responding too, in that the Oilers bottom 6 that you have listed, really don't do much without McDavid, Draisaitl or Nuge. Who are not in the bottom 6. So, essentially, the bottom 6 comparisons are production of guys while playing top 6, vs bottom 6. It does go both ways, as no team has specific top 6 and bottom 6, guys are always moving up and down the depth charts.

So, here is an accurate comparison, using only points scored with the respective teams.

The Oilers bottom 6 you have listed are:
Neal
Athanasiou
Archibald
Sheahan
Khaira
Chiasson

They have combined for 57 team goals, and 103 points. But lets be realistic, Neal didn't get his points in the bottom 6, neither did Chiasson.
Of the 103 combined points from these players, 68 were scored at Even Strength, 30 on the powerplay (Neal 17, Chiasson 13) and 5 Short handed.
Of the 103 points, 65 were scored while one or more of McDavid, Draisaitl or Nugent-Hopkins were on the ice, 38 were scored without.

On the other side, Chicago breaks down like this:
Nylander
Dach
Caggiula
Shaw
Smith
Kampf

They combined for 42 team goals and 101 points.
Of the 101 combined, 89 were scored at even strength, 8 on the powerplay and 4 shorthanded
Of the 101 points, 51 were scored while one or more of Kane, Toews and DeBrincat were on the ice, 50 were scored without.

This clearly shows that Chicagos bottom 6 produce more effectively (49.5% of their points vs 36.9%) as a bottom 6 unit, while also producing 88.1% of their points at even strength vs the oilers 66%

Anyone who has watched the Oilers play, even a handful of games, knows they are a 2 man team, with 2 or 3 support pieces. They do not have depth beyond a Powerplay unit.

 

[x Tame Impala]

The breaks been going on so long that Blackhawks fans are dreaming about the playoffs likes it’s 2014-2015.

When was the last time the Avs made it past the 2nd round??? All the way back in 2001?

 

[x Tame Impala]

Again. McDavid and Drai are part of the Oilers depth whether people like it or not. I take Edmonton's roster today over Chicago's.

That’s not what depth means.

 

[Ctrain2k]

It actually can't....as stated above, it's been mathematically proven that the Chicago bottom six is more productive:

Neither team has a good bottom 6, they’re comparable it’s not gonna be a deciding factor in the series. Also looking at points is a really bad way to decide who’s better, they’re grinders if they were good at scoring they wouldn’t be in the bottom 6.

 

[Mcnotloilersfan]

We are talking about "depth", which involves looking at quality through the lineup. The Oilers have the best top 2 forwards in the league, no doubt. They may have the worst depth though.

Depth means the whole team. And if you think this year Edmonton has no depth beyond their top 2, you clearly haven't paid any attention.

 

[archangel2]

this has not aged well