So.. Edmonton has to be the favorites coming out of the west, right?

[blankall]

Edmonton probably has a good shot to win a round, should the playoffs actually happen and they don't get Vegas in the 1st.

But the Pacific is an incredibly weak division and they're a big part of that. The idea that they're one of the top teams in their division should tell you all you need to know about it. I can't see McDavid and Draisaitl carrying them to a win over Vegas, as good as McDavid/Draisaitl are. The depth just isn't there and their goaltending is precarious at best.

And that's just talking about the Pacific! There's easily 3 teams in the Central better than them. I can't see them being better than St. Louis, Colorado, Dallas. They're probably on par with the Wild (although their goaltending has been much better than Minnesota's this year).

But yeah Edmonton is a team that can probably win a round but likely couldn't do much more. They're miles away from being the best team in the West.

The Stars were a pretty mediocre playoff team too. I don't see what separated then from that lump of other playoff teams in the West.

The West was far more straight forward. Vegas, Colorado, and St Louis in a tier of their own.

Dallas, Edmonton, Calgary, Winnipeg, Nashville, Vancouver, and Minnesota in a second tier. Any team in that second tier was capable of getting on a role and surprising. Nothing to substantially separate any of these teams from the pack.

 

[mynamejeff420]

The Stars were a pretty mediocre playoff team too. I don't see what separated then from that lump of other playoff teams in the West.

The West was far more straight forward. Vegas, Colorado, and St Louis in a tier of their own.

Dallas, Edmonton, Calgary, Winnipeg, Nashville, Vancouver, and Minnesota in a second tier. Any team in that second tier was capable of getting on a role and surprising. Nothing to substantially separate any of these teams from the pack.

Yeah outside of a few teams (VGK, COL, STL) there isn't much separating the teams in the West, all those other ones you mentioned have flaws. But imo Dallas is a tier above them due to their defensive system, as they are one of the best teams in the league defensively this year and they have elite goaltending. Couple that with a ton of established offensive talents, who despite their off years still have the potential to break out offensively in the playoffs, it makes sense to me to put them a tier above the rest of the pack. Maybe not on the level of Vegas/St. Louis/Colorado, but they're still a strong team.

 

[blankall]

Yeah outside of a few teams (VGK, COL, STL) there isn't much separating the teams in the West, all those other ones you mentioned have flaws. But imo Dallas is a tier above them due to their defensive system, as they are one of the best teams in the league defensively this year and they have elite goaltending. Couple that with a ton of established offensive talents, who despite their off years still have the potential to break out offensively in the playoffs, it makes sense to me to put them a tier above the rest of the pack. Maybe not on the level of Vegas/St. Louis/Colorado, but they're still a strong team.

Dallas is also by far the worst of all those teams when it comes to goals for. Dallas was tied for 3rd last in the league in goals and was 2nd last in the conference.


Winnipeg, Calgary, Minnesota, and Nashville also have many players having off years too. Yes any of these teams could put it together, which is kind of my point as to why there all lumped together into that second tier. And I would definitely include Dallas in that 2nd tier.

 

[blankall]

Yeah outside of a few teams (VGK, COL, STL) there isn't much separating the teams in the West, all those other ones you mentioned have flaws. But imo Dallas is a tier above them due to their defensive system, as they are one of the best teams in the league defensively this year and they have elite goaltending. Couple that with a ton of established offensive talents, who despite their off years still have the potential to break out offensively in the playoffs, it makes sense to me to put them a tier above the rest of the pack. Maybe not on the level of Vegas/St. Louis/Colorado, but they're still a strong team.

Dallas is also by far the worst of all those teams when it comes to goals for. Dallas was tied for 3rd last in the league in goals and was 2nd last in the conference.


Winnipeg, Calgary, Minnesota, and Nashville also have many players having off years too. Yes any of these teams could put it together, which is kind of my point as to why there all lumped together into that second tier. And I would definitely include Dallas in that 2nd tier.

 

[mynamejeff420]

Dallas is also by far the worst of all those teams when it comes to goals for. Dallas was tied for 3rd last in the league in goals and was 2nd last in the conference.


Winnipeg, Calgary, Minnesota, and Nashville also have many players having off years too. Yes any of these teams could put it together, which is kind of my point as to why there all lumped together into that second tier. And I would definitely include Dallas in that 2nd tier.

At 5v5 they're actually 30th in GF/60, but 13th in xGF/60, which suggest that they're taking good shots, they're just not going in. They have the 29th best shooting percentage at 5v5 too, further suggesting that their lack of offense is more luck driven than them being bad at it. The also allow the 2nd fewest GA/60 at 5v5 and the 6th fewest xGA/60. So they've got an offense ready to break out and elite team level defense.

The Jets don't score much (19th in GF/60), don't take good shots (29th in xGF/60), and allow a ton of dangerous shots (29th in xGA/60). The only thing they're sort of good at is GA/60 (12th) and that's because Hellebuyck has been a monster all year. They're nowhere near the level Dallas is.

Calgary doesn't score much (20th in GF/60), but they take good shots (8th in xGF/60) suggesting, like the Stars, that their lack of offense is luck driven. However, they're not exactly a strong defensive team (17th in xGA/60 and 20th in GA/60), so that puts them a tier below the Stars imo, since they don't have the elite defense to compensate for the lack of offense (that may come with time).

Minnesota is a pretty good team imo, they just lack goaltending. They're 5th in GF/60, but 26th in xGF/60, suggesting their success is luck driven. But defensively they're elite, they're the 2nd best team in the league in xGA/60! But their goaltending sucks, thus their GA/60 is nowhere near their xGA/60, so they're a middle of the pack team in that metric (17th). Because their offense is likely a mirage and their goaltending hasn't been good for years, I have a hard time putting them in the same tier as the Stars.

Nashville scores a lot (6th in GF/60) but doesn't take great shots (15th in xGF/60). Also their defense isn't great (15th in xGA/60, 15th in GA/60). It's not bad, just not great. Pretty much everything I said about the Wild applies to the Predators, without the elite level defense.

All those teams you mentioned have major flaws, while Dallas' biggest flaw seems to be unlucky shooting, something that's unlikely to continue moving forward.

 

[flying v 604]

Edmonton is obviously the best team in Canada, but hardly favourites in the West at the moment, once the playoffs start you never know.

They aren't even the best team in the Pacific, let alone Canada. The Oil had a fantastic start to the season but the fact remains they rely on 2 players who despite putting up tons of points still allow more goals then they score. I get +- isn't the greatest stat but when you put up the amount of points #97 and #29 did and still have a terrible +- that's an issue. Take Petey for example, he was around a ppg and a +16. Fully healthy I take the Nucks all-day, since they are able IMO to roll 3 lines that can score and I prefer Marky in net. That being said, if Drai and McDavid can hit lightning in a bottle like they are capable of doing and Smith does as well, the Oil are capable of beating anyone.
As a Nucks fan and based on how they played against other playoff teams id prefer playing the central team's other than Dallas before playing Vegas. Binnington was nowhere the goalie he was as a rookie and the Avs have trouble scoring past the 1st line. Vegas if they get even just average tending are the class of the West and should be the favourite from the West.

 

[I Hate Blake Coleman]

Looks like the Dynasty Redux will have to start another year, boys.

 

[blankall]

At 5v5 they're actually 30th in GF/60, but 13th in xGF/60, which suggest that they're taking good shots, they're just not going in. They have the 29th best shooting percentage at 5v5 too, further suggesting that their lack of offense is more luck driven than them being bad at it. The also allow the 2nd fewest GA/60 at 5v5 and the 6th fewest xGA/60. So they've got an offense ready to break out and elite team level defense.

The Jets don't score much (19th in GF/60), don't take good shots (29th in xGF/60), and allow a ton of dangerous shots (29th in xGA/60). The only thing they're sort of good at is GA/60 (12th) and that's because Hellebuyck has been a monster all year. They're nowhere near the level Dallas is.

Calgary doesn't score much (20th in GF/60), but they take good shots (8th in xGF/60) suggesting, like the Stars, that their lack of offense is luck driven. However, they're not exactly a strong defensive team (17th in xGA/60 and 20th in GA/60), so that puts them a tier below the Stars imo, since they don't have the elite defense to compensate for the lack of offense (that may come with time).

Minnesota is a pretty good team imo, they just lack goaltending. They're 5th in GF/60, but 26th in xGF/60, suggesting their success is luck driven. But defensively they're elite, they're the 2nd best team in the league in xGA/60! But their goaltending sucks, thus their GA/60 is nowhere near their xGA/60, so they're a middle of the pack team in that metric (17th). Because their offense is likely a mirage and their goaltending hasn't been good for years, I have a hard time putting them in the same tier as the Stars.

Nashville scores a lot (6th in GF/60) but doesn't take great shots (15th in xGF/60). Also their defense isn't great (15th in xGA/60, 15th in GA/60). It's not bad, just not great. Pretty much everything I said about the Wild applies to the Predators, without the elite level defense.

All those teams you mentioned have major flaws, while Dallas' biggest flaw seems to be unlucky shooting, something that's unlikely to continue moving forward.

There is an element of luck, but when you're talking about an entire team over the course of 70 games, it becomes very minimal. More than likely, they aren't getting set up in good scoring chances due to a general lack of offence.

You can only apply advanced stats so far. They can't subjectively look at the quality of each shot being taken.

 

[President Skroob]

I liked your post for its delusional value.

If you think the Oilers are better positioned for a Stanley Cup run, regardless of how they set the bracket up, you know nothing about hockey, defense - Team and individual play or team Positional depth, 3 things that the Blues far and away outstrip the Oilers at.

It seems you responded to the wrong person.

 

[mynamejeff420]

There is an element of luck, but when you're talking about an entire team over the course of 70 games, it becomes very minimal. More than likely, they aren't getting set up in good scoring chances due to a general lack of offence.

You can only apply advanced stats so far. They can't subjectively look at the quality of each shot being taken.

Actually there's quite a lot of evidence that teams can still be at the mercy of luck over 70 games. The Avalanche rode out an insane amount of luck in the playoffs in 13/14 before crashing and burning, or the Hurricanes last year, they had awful luck in the first half before exploding in the second half.

While you can't subjectively look at the quality of each shot being taken, you can objectively look at it, and from an objective standpoint, the quality of shots the Stars were taking weren't as bad as their offensive totals (or GF) would indicate.

 

[Hock98]

With the way Fleury has played this season, I am not convinced he can shut out the duo of McDavid and Drai tbh.

Who do you think the Oilers goaltending are shutting out lmao

 

[nerblet]

Who do you think the Oilers goaltending are shutting out lmao

I dont get it. What's your point?

 

[Saucechucker99]

As a Stars fan I would love to play Edmonton. That said, the season series was close, think three games went to overtime?

 

[Dr Salt]

There is a lot of more complete teams.

 

[awesomo]

Let’s be real. The cup winner is basically a flip. You just need to be good for like 26(?) games?

everyone can get really hot for a period of time. If buffalo were in. My vote would be for them haha

 

[OilCanada92]

Who do you think the Oilers goaltending are shutting out lmao

Poor message board etiquette.

 

[x Tame Impala]

Homerism aside, I'm not even entirely convinced the Oilers can beat my Blackhawks in a best of 5. If I had to put money down i'd say the Hawks lose but it's not a guarantee by any means. In terms of the rest of the West...if McDavid and/or Draisaitl go cold in a series who is the depth that's going to pick up the slack? What players are they going to throw out there to shut down other team's best lines? Is Koskinen going to step up or will they have to cross their fingers that 38 year old Mike Smith doesn't get lit up again like he did just one year ago in Calgary?

Edmonton isn't a complete team yet. They need a much better bottom 6, they need way more talent on defense.

 

[ZenOil]

Oilers haven't dominated 5 on 5. Until they can consistently dominate 5 on 5 they can't be considered a cup contender......still think they can pull it off, but they aren't favorite.

 

[Three On Zero]

Homerism aside, I'm not even entirely convinced the Oilers can beat my Blackhawks in a best of 5. If I had to put money down i'd say the Hawks lose but it's not a guarantee by any means. In terms of the rest of the West...if McDavid and/or Draisaitl go cold in a series who is the depth that's going to pick up the slack? What players are they going to throw out there to shut down other team's best lines? Is Koskinen going to step up or will they have to cross their fingers that 38 year old Mike Smith doesn't get lit up again like he did just one year ago in Calgary?

Edmonton isn't a complete team yet. They need a much better bottom 6, they need way more talent on defense.

Chicago is a much more rounded team with veteran experience in the playoffs. The stars would need to align for Edmonton to beat them. It’s unfortunate they got rid of Lehner

 

[ElysiumAB]

I would love to play Edmonton in a 7 game series

Singlehandedly? Surely they would beat you!

 

[alphahelix]

Homerism aside, I'm not even entirely convinced the Oilers can beat my Blackhawks in a best of 5. If I had to put money down i'd say the Hawks lose but it's not a guarantee by any means. In terms of the rest of the West...if McDavid and/or Draisaitl go cold in a series who is the depth that's going to pick up the slack? What players are they going to throw out there to shut down other team's best lines? Is Koskinen going to step up or will they have to cross their fingers that 38 year old Mike Smith doesn't get lit up again like he did just one year ago in Calgary?

Edmonton isn't a complete team yet. They need a much better bottom 6, they need way more talent on defense.

People don’t know about the Oilers D yet. It’s 10 deep.

 

[kingsfan28]

Not with Smith in net. It's not the same 2012 version, that was rattled and picked apart by the Kings. I don't see them going far with him there.

 

[Hank Plank]

Did the Oilers win the Cup? I've been busy with other things haven't been paying attention.

 

[McDNicks17]

Homerism aside, I'm not even entirely convinced the Oilers can beat my Blackhawks in a best of 5. If I had to put money down i'd say the Hawks lose but it's not a guarantee by any means. In terms of the rest of the West...if McDavid and/or Draisaitl go cold in a series who is the depth that's going to pick up the slack? What players are they going to throw out there to shut down other team's best lines? Is Koskinen going to step up or will they have to cross their fingers that 38 year old Mike Smith doesn't get lit up again like he did just one year ago in Calgary?

Edmonton isn't a complete team yet. They need a much better bottom 6, they need way more talent on defense.

Huh?

Did you not watch that series?

 

[x Tame Impala]

Huh?

Did you not watch that series?

Yeah I watched most of that one actually. He was no bueno