Post-Game Talk: Skinned again

[TopShelfGloveSide]

What does entertainment have to do with it?
Also, call me crazy, but holding a more important/core player for playing like crap is more important than scratching a Derek Ryan

Didn’t cooper scratch Kucherov once?

 

[Soundwave]

I wonder if the ducks see any value in Skinner. I doubt it.

Getting them to retain 50% would be pricey.

Maybe, maybe not. I mean you kinda have to look at it this way too, by talking off their hands, they're saving money.

Paying 6.4 million for a backup when you have no playoff revenue coming in probably isn't something that thrills ownership. If we agree to take on some portion of his contract it's better than them paying 100% of it.

 

[Fourier]

The fancies are misleading and this is a prime example of how these stats aren’t telling the full story at either end of the ice. Just like in years past, the stats show we are good at suppressing hdca but they don’t differentiate for quality and the ones we do give up are almost exclusively AAA prime just like the ones last night.

I’m not putting it all on the D though, it’s a team problem because many times our C who should be supporting down low and at net front is too busy chasing pucks instead of taking his check or even worse blowing the zone trying to gamble for a rush chance. The result is always the same our defenders outnumbered at our net, which often results in them not taking their man.

Here is the team heat map for all situations goals against:

Here is Skinners all situation heat maps.

These pictures do not suggest that the goals being scored are mostly from prime AAA chances. While the Oilers do give up such chances it is observational bias that this is the core issue. If your goalies are letting in wrist shots from all over the offensive zone that is an issue. BY comparison here is Toronto:

And Stoalrz:

 

[Drivesaitl]

Oh sorry

Don't be. I don't go around the rumors thread or go on that beat and most fans wouldn't know. Your post was me hearing about it first time. Thanks.

 

[CanadasTeam99]

Arvidson- 4mill
Skinner - 3mill
Henrique- 3mill

10 million tied up in pretty useless players. Shocking to say the least.

You forgot to add in RNH, so it is even more

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

I don't think either McD or Drai are great or clear on player preferences. I think they err on being very deferential and mostly non critical. They shouldn't be canvassed on team decisions and especially given their penchant for saying any player is making a contribution and instead being first to critique themselves. These attributes would be lauded in many roles but as evaluative its nothing like that at all. But that isn't their job. People like Jeff Jackson are practicing entirely beyond competence and not doing theirs. I'll maintain the offseason was a debacle in asset management, priorities and we lost several prospects/players and got back question marks. Terrible homework, as per usual by this club. The primary fault here as usual is management. I detest Skinner in goal but all the while realizing management continues to put him there.

Still unclear how you thought I was a Campbell lover. Nah, like Pickard he has better fundamentals than Skinner but almost any goalie that gets to the show does. Skinner is the weakest at fundamentals, basic skills that I've seen here in years. He isn't even a project goalie. But one that gets constantly propped up here. Skinner had little to do with getting the team to the cup. he had a lot to do with exhausting the team during the season and playoffs extending many series. It is ironic his best game was the Dallas deciding game. he has an occasional game like that. His bad games outweigh his good.

The Oilers have largely neglected the goaltending position since drafting Dubnyk as a pedigree first round goaltender who needed to reset his career after giving up on him. He beat his consistency issues and stabilized into a long NHL career. They've relied largely on retreading deeply established (flawed) goaltenders versus young, developing ones.

Skinner, and I'm not defending him, is onboarding as a starting goaltender which is well beyond his station. Conversely Pickard, once a pedigree tender prospect himself, has a mature technical and mental game after never manifesting his own potential as an NHL starting goalie. They've at different stages of their career and this window team has precariously tied its resource allocation on what they believe to be Skinner's potential. Unfortunately they got to this through cap sinking investment in Campbell and prioritizing more offense and cutting costs on the most important position in the sport. They doubled down this summer. It's not a risk I would have made. But also I'm not paid to make those decisions nor do I have the depth of information that Jackson's information based decision making organization model has. Of course at the quarter pole this team is under performing across the boards including living with some inconsistency development hiccups with Bouchard. They have not outscored their problems.

The organization has used the fire the coach card to stem precarious starts within the past three seasons. They're doubtful to do that with Knoblauch (and its distorted as a coaching issue anyway) so this management group can double down on positive expected goal metrics and other non public statistical information to ride out the wide spread malaise or new guy Bowman can decide this team needs a veteran upgrade in net as their biggest priority. There's limited bullets - cap and asset wise so we wait to see.

 

[guymez]

The fancies are misleading and this is a prime example of how these stats aren’t telling the full story at either end of the ice. Just like in years past, the stats show we are good at suppressing hdca but they don’t differentiate for quality and the ones we do give up are almost exclusively AAA prime just like the ones last night.

I’m not putting it all on the D though, it’s a team problem because many times our C who should be supporting down low and at net front is too busy chasing pucks instead of taking his check or even worse blowing the zone trying to gamble for a rush chance. The result is always the same our defenders outnumbered at our net, which often results in them not taking their man.

100%

The AAA chances the Oilers are giving up are not equivalent to just any HDSC.
The advanced stats (on their own) are not as definitive as some posters would like to believe.
They arent granular enough to be definitive on their own and never will be.

They are supplemental and should be applied along with the eye test.

 

[iCanada]

Here is the team heat map for all situations goals against:

View attachment 934213
Here is Skinners all situation heat maps.

View attachment 934215
View attachment 934217
These pictures do not suggest that the goals being scored are mostly from prime AAA chances. While the Oilers do give up such chances it is observational bias that this is the core issue. If your goalies are letting in wrist shots from all over the offensive zone that is an issue. BY comparison here is Toronto:
View attachment 934218

And Stoalrz:

View attachment 934219

Suggests to me he can't handle routine NHL level shooters from literally anywhere. Lol wtf.

That wrist shot heat map is worse than I would have imagined.

 

[CanadasTeam99]

 

[Soundwave]

Since the 2nd game of the season, Pickard is .915 save percentage ... I mean, this guy is a back up too but maybe he should get more starts at this point. I get part of the reason he's not is because the org is embarrassed that an AHL cast off would be better than their 2 hand picked go tos in Campbell and Skinner.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

It wasn't 3 goals on 4 scoring chances. It was 3 goals on 4 shots. The 4th shot was a really low percentage muffin. Granted the other 3 were good chances/shots, but f*** that was a piss off. Make just one save in the final 10 minutes of a close game, dammit.

But score on a 5 minute PP at a critical juncture in the game and the outcome is likely different. Add Bouch's mistaken clearing pass into high danger ice that hits McDavid's backside for a crusher goal against.

They invested in a finesse, skill team to outscore and as they like to say 'make teams pay for any liberties against them.' Generating nothing and team mistakes along with poor goaltending were the difference in a solid game where the Oil played a good road game. Looking at the game holistically there were several critical situations in various facets that failed at critical times.

 

[BlackDogg]

Since the 2nd game of the season, Pickard is .915 save percentage ... I mean, this guy is a back up too but maybe he should get more starts at this point. I get part of the reason he's not is because the org is embarrassed that an AHL cast off would be better than their 2 hand picked go tos in Campbell and Skinner.

They have to soon, to find out which is the better backup to whomever they get for goal.

 

[GMofOilers]

It’s proven at this point Not my fault Skinner is the biggest fraud in the league

 

[iCanada]

They have to soon, to find out which is the better backup to whomever they get for goal.

Pickard is better by every metric and costs less cap space.


But I do hear Skinner is better at Mario Kart?

 

[CanadasTeam99]

Here is the team heat map for all situations goals against:

View attachment 934213
Here is Skinners all situation heat maps.

View attachment 934215
View attachment 934217
These pictures do not suggest that the goals being scored are mostly from prime AAA chances. While the Oilers do give up such chances it is observational bias that this is the core issue. If your goalies are letting in wrist shots from all over the offensive zone that is an issue. BY comparison here is Toronto:
View attachment 934218

And Stoalrz:

View attachment 934219

Lol. Don't spit facts man. It makes people mad

 

[bobbythebrain]

It is entertainment. its the primary reason games are played watched. lol its the whole endeavor in pro sports.

Yeah its crazy to be talking about healthy scratching a player that got us the most recent win in Ottawa and was the best player in that game. Good thing you're not making these calls. Lets scratch a star D while we're short D and already without Nurse. Doesn't make sense.

On another club without McDrai it would be even more ridiculous to consider healthy scratching a PPG D. An allstar D. I guess only here this makes sense.

Nope. Games are watched to see wins. It's why attendance and viewing is down when teams suck(except Canada cuz we have nothing else)

Oh wow. Bouchard won 1 game. Woooooppppeeeee. I can think of three he outright cost us, including last nite

 

[CanadasTeam99]

Suggests to me he can't handle routine NHL level shooters from literally anywhere. Lol wtf.

That wrist shot heat map is worse than I would have imagined.

No No. But the Oilers give up 'Unique" AAA chances. Nobody else does this

I would like to see how many rebound goals fatstache has given up this year. Must be a ton.

 

[The Panther]

I am still confused as to why the coaches started Skinner vs. Minnesota. In what was basically a "scheduled loss", and at a crucial time in the season (Oilers behind the 8-ball again, 4 regulars out with injury), why start the mis-designated top guy who has been crapping out this season and always looks like a sieve vs. Minny?

Cal Pickard was drafted 49th overall; Stu Skinner was drafted 78th. And it's not like Skinner is at some higher level of performance than Pickard (more like the opposite this season).

The Oilers' org seems to have this weird habit of doubling down on their own mistakes, seemingly intent on not "losing face" rather than actually doing what's best for the club. It's like they screwed up massively with Jack Campbell (well, Holland did anyway, but who knows who advised him), and they tried for 2 years to play him just to prove he could do it... then finally, gave up and realized he couldn't (AHL, then buy-out). With that egg on their faces, they then decided Stu Skinner is their franchise goalie of the future, despite nothing in his pedigree or actual play suggesting this at all. It's fairly clear right now that Pickard is outperforming Skinner, so why not just go with the hot guy? Answer: The Oilers want to prove to everyone that they're right and to justify Skinner's elevated status as an apparent #1. They'll do this at the expense of wins.

 

[Drivesaitl]

View attachment 934234

The NHL is all out of those snacks for the Oilers. Get em fresh, none of these toothless preds till Next season. Can never understand how Minny has trouble with that club.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

I am still confused as to why the coaches started Skinner vs. Minnesota. In what was basically a "scheduled loss", and at a crucial time in the season (Oilers behind the 8-ball again, 4 regulars out with injury), why start the mis-designated top guy who has been crapping out this season and always looks like a sieve vs. Minny?

Cal Pickard was drafted 49th overall; Stu Skinner was drafted 78th. And it's not like Skinner is at some higher level of performance than Pickard (more like the opposite this season).

The Oilers' org seems to have this weird habit of doubling down on their own mistakes, seemingly intent on not "losing face" rather than actually doing what's best for the club. It's like they screwed up massively with Jack Campbell (well, Holland did anyway, but who knows who advised him), and they tried for 2 years to play him just to prove he could do it... then finally, gave up and realized he couldn't (AHL, then buy-out). With that egg on their faces, they then decided Stu Skinner is their franchise goalie of the future, despite nothing in his pedigree or actual play suggesting this at all. It's fairly clear right now that Pickard is outperforming Skinner, so why not just go with the hot guy? Answer: The Oilers want to prove to everyone that they're right and to justify Skinner's elevated status as an apparent #1. They'll do this at the expense of wins.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Nope. Games are watched to see wins. It's why attendance and viewing is down when teams suck(except Canada cuz we have nothing else)

Oh wow. Bouchard won 1 game. Woooooppppeeeee. I can think of three he outright cost us, including last nite

Canada is awesome. Bite your tongue. heh

yeah, well, I didn't notice Booch of being in the spectrum of things costing us the W last night. I think it was a team built loss, and then compounded by Skinner. I suspect you dislike Booch though. He's an incomplete player, I get it, but some of those exist where they are offensively great and have weak spots defensively. I would have Booch over the runt Quinny Hughes or guys like King Karlson. Overall Booch is a good D to have, prolific, and reasonable attitude and good in the room. Would actually love to play on same team.

Again he's probably our third most talented player. ANY team would take him off our hands.

 

[bobbythebrain]

Canada is awesome. Bite your tongue. heh

yeah, well, I didn't notice Booch of being in the spectrum of things costing us the W last night. I think it was a team built loss, and then compounded by Skinner. I suspect you dislike Booch though. He's an incomplete player, I get it, but some of those exist where they are offensively great and have weak spots defensively. I would have Booch over the runt Quinny Hughes or guys like King Karlson. Overall Booch is a good D to have, prolific, and reasonable attitude and good in the room. Would actually love to play on same team.

Again he's probably our third most talented player. ANY team would take him off our hands.

Booch is my fave dman. But you can't defend crap.

The disallowed goal was a complete breakdown by his pair. Him failing to tie up on Boldys goal. Giveaways, missed nets and blocks in the ozone.

Sorry to tell ya, but last nite loss was a healthy reason cuz of him

 

[McAsuno]

Here is the team heat map for all situations goals against:

View attachment 934213
Here is Skinners all situation heat maps.

View attachment 934215
View attachment 934217
These pictures do not suggest that the goals being scored are mostly from prime AAA chances. While the Oilers do give up such chances it is observational bias that this is the core issue. If your goalies are letting in wrist shots from all over the offensive zone that is an issue. BY comparison here is Toronto:
View attachment 934218

And Stoalrz:

View attachment 934219

So in short:

 

[Jumptheshark]

Lol. Don't spit facts man. It makes people mad

When it comes to stats in analytics they need to break them down and explain then. Not just post them and go "SEE SEE SEE"--that is not how analytics work