Confirmed Trade: [SJS/EDM] D Cody Ceci, '25 3rd round pick for D Ty Emberson

ujju2

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Apr 9, 2016
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I think you'll be surprised how much your playoff roster misses guys like Ceci, McLeod, Foegele, maybe Holloway. Guys that thrive when the sport becomes about size, speed, playing simple hockey.

Here is your new guy vs Nate MacKinnon. Perfect playoff play. Tough and very ineffective. This guy clearly isn't as big a Ceci. Not nearly as durable either.

It's going to be appropriate when Edmonton goes into the 2025 playoffs with just one or maybe none of Skinner, Avadsson and Emberson even available to suit up.



What exactly are we supposed to gain from this clip? He went or a hit, got reverse hit by MacKinnon (not the first guy that's happened to), and SJS still ends up with the puck. If that's the worst clip of him you can find, I'm loving it.

Also you might be right about Foegele and especially Holloway if we don't match, but trust me, no Oilers fan is going to be seriously missing Ceci and McLeod anytime soon.
 
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ManofSteel55

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If Broberg is matched, it will be a Pyrrhic victory. Paying a guy 4.5M when he was asking for 1.8M, and who doesn't want to be there in the 1st place(though that could change with regular NHL shifts), is hardly a situation that EDM fans can celebrate.

I understand not matching Holloway, who has been disappointing, but I see more potential in him than Podkolzin. Can't see keeping both.

If nothing else, hafta congratulate the management teams of STL, VAN, SJS and EDM for providing us with entertainment in an otherwise boring August.... wait, Askarov wants out?
I'm not sure if the asking for 1.8M part is actually true, or if that's what the Oilers were offering, and Broberg's camp was sitting on that offer hoping for more.
 

WhiskeyYerTheDevils

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4.5M is a crazy value for Broberg right now. It is far above his market value. It can make sense to keep Broberg the player, even if his contract is an overpayment.
If there are multiple teams willing to pay 4.5M for a player, then that is the market value to contract that player.
Think of it this way. Holloway, while being a good player, isn't tracking to be a top line player, and maybe not even a 2nd line player. He's a good, fast, depth guy with a lot of potential. But there's a ton of those guys around. They are a lot easier to come by than a defenseman who could be ready to step up into a top 4 role this year. Holloway at his offer sheet amount is way less overpaid than what his market value dictates, but it's still easier to replace him than it is Broberg.
Okay, where was this logic before the Ceci trade? When almost every Oiler fan said they preferred to let Broberg walk but keep Holloway?
 

ChicagoBlues

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4.5M is a crazy value for Broberg right now. It is far above his market value. It can make sense to keep Broberg the player, even if his contract is an overpayment.

Think of it this way. Holloway, while being a good player, isn't tracking to be a top line player, and maybe not even a 2nd line player. He's a good, fast, depth guy with a lot of potential. But there's a ton of those guys around. They are a lot easier to come by than a defenseman who could be ready to step up into a top 4 role this year. Holloway at his offer sheet amount is way less overpaid than what his market value dictates, but it's still easier to replace him than it is Broberg.
This is how you argue, Oilers Peeps! Learn from this and be better, please. It will make our discussions much better.

I don't think anybody is saying that paying Broberg 4.5 is ideal but it's the reality of the situation. As an Oiler fan, I just look at him as an asset now. He doesn't want to be here, he looks really bad to his team mates that are taking discounts and threw a wrench in a cup year run, Probably will get booed by the fans here too. So I can't see him being here long term. Before Ceci got shipped, I was saying, let both players go but now that we got some young prospects back and cap space to work with, it's best to keep Broberg as he is the more valuable piece. Wait out the trading period and then immediately trade him. I am sure, he can be traded next year for something better than a 2nd.
and this
 

CantHaveTkachev

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Sure, but before this trade, Oilers fans were acting like it was crazy that any team wanted to sign Broberg to a 4.5M AAV, and that was far above his market value.
It still is absolutely crazy...doesn't mean I didn't wanna keep him
Nothing about Broberg's value has since changed, but now Oilers fans are acting like it always made sense to keep Broberg over Holloway, and that 4.5M isn't all that bad.
don't lump all Oilers fans the same....I said they should keep Broberg and let Holloway go

I'd keep Broberg and let Holloway walk, we are deep on the wings and Holloway doesn't have the offensive pedigree to crack the top 6

but I think they do the opposite
 

McBooya42

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Sure, but before this trade, Oilers fans were acting like it was crazy that any team wanted to sign Broberg to a 4.5M AAV, and that was far above his market value. Nothing about Broberg's value has since changed, but now Oilers fans are acting like it always made sense to keep Broberg over Holloway, and that 4.5M isn't all that bad.
It's bad the first year. I think he'll be worth it the 2nd, especially if playing as a LHD.
 

ManofSteel55

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If there are multiple teams willing to pay 4.5M for a player, then that is the market value to contract that player.

Okay, where was this logic before the Ceci trade? When almost every Oiler fan said they preferred to let Broberg walk but keep Holloway?
It was around as well. There's a lot of moving parts here, and a lot of discussions with shifting opinions have taken place. Trying to paint it as a black and white discussion shows a lack of depth. Many Oiler fans have posted different options and scenarios we could see, or would prefer.

Broberg wouldn't have gotten 4.5M on the open market, so I disagree with your sentiment that 2 teams being okay with signing him to that contract suddenly makes it his market value. One team was willing to overpay to get him. Another might be looking at overpaying to keep him. If both teams knew it was an overpayment, that doesn't make it his market value.
 
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McBooya42

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I’m gonna bet a million dollars I watched more Ty than Oilers beat writer Caleb Kearney, but I especially liked this line:

“They were impressed enough at his performance to sign him to a one-year $950,000 extension back on July 11th.”
The one you first mentioned was the tweets from Bruce Curlock. He's a great analyst and is much respected in the Oiler circles for his analysis on up and coming players:

I guarantee you haven't watched Emberson more than him.
 
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ManofSteel55

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It's bad the first year. I think he'll be worth it the 2nd, especially if playing as a LHD.
It might be okay the first year too. It isn't bad because he has no chance of getting to the level where he is earning that money, its bad because he hasn't proven it yet, and because it's more than what we would have had to pay had the offer sheet not come in. If Broberg plays like he did in the playoffs, he probably earns that contract in year one. It's just the uncertainty of it that makes it questionable.
 
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Ol' Jase

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The biggest problem with the Broberg deal is that, if the Oilers match, the contract forces him into a Top-4 role by default. There is still a massive question on whether he's ready for that sort of responsibility.

This deal will never be "good" for the Oilers, unless Broberg takes a big leap in play AND is willing to buy in completely with a team on the cusp of a championship.

I really, really have my doubts about both variables coming true.
 

WhiskeyYerTheDevils

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It still is absolutely crazy...doesn't mean I didn't wanna keep him

don't lump all Oilers fans the same....I said they should keep Broberg and let Holloway go
You're right, I didn't intend to lump them all together, but rather highlight how quickly the consensus changed.
It's bad the first year. I think he'll be worth it the 2nd, especially if playing as a LHD.
But didn't you say you didn't want him back?
1724083826564.png

It was around as well. There's a lot of moving parts here, and a lot of discussions with shifting opinions have taken place. Trying to paint it as a black and white discussion shows a lack of depth. Many Oiler fans have posted different options and scenarios we could see, or would prefer.
It was not the consensus argument, and specifically, not the argument made by the poster I originally quoted.
Broberg wouldn't have gotten 4.5M on the open market, so I disagree with your sentiment that 2 teams being okay with signing him to that contract suddenly makes it his market value. One team was willing to overpay to get him. Another might be looking at overpaying to keep him. If both teams knew it was an overpayment, that doesn't make it his market value.
We have no way of knowing what he would have made as a UFA. But we do know that a team was willing to pay 4.5Mx2 for him, which is what sets the market rate for him. That's how markets work.
 

PuckG

Registered User
Feb 26, 2015
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Edmonton fans cheering because they paid a 3rd to move Ceci so that they could keep Broberg for 2 years at $4.5mil.

Zoinks.
Are you incapable of understanding the context that makes the situation better than it was a week ago?
 

ManofSteel55

Registered User
Aug 15, 2013
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I’m gonna bet a million dollars I watched more Ty than Oilers beat writer Caleb Kearney, but I especially liked this line:

“They were impressed enough at his performance to sign him to a one-year $950,000 extension back on July 11th.”
Taking The Hockey News at any value is your first mistake. Although the article you posted referred to the waiver claim as "one of GM Grier's most underrated moves", and the player as "one of the Sharks' most effective defensemen". There's a lot of unknown's about this player for Oiler fans, but there are analysts out there who actually follow these players for a living.

You're right, I didn't intend to lump them all together, but rather highlight how quickly the consensus changed.

But didn't you say you didn't want him back?
View attachment 901860

It was not the consensus argument, and specifically, not the argument made by the poster I originally quoted.

We have no way of knowing what he would have made as a UFA. But we do know that a team was willing to pay 4.5Mx2 for him, which is what sets the market rate for him. That's how markets work.
That's at best a simplistic evaluation of how markets work, and at worst, a blatant misrepresentation of how they work. Anyone who knows how markets truly work knows that you're looking at a full spectrum in black and white here.
 

innitfam

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Oct 18, 2017
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Emberson? He's played a grand total of 30 NHL games and has a -4.2 expected goals for, 42% corsi (0% relative to his San Jose mates), doesn't block shots or ever take the puck away.

Emberson wouldn't make most NHL teams.

I thought I remembered that NYR fans were not happy about losing him on waivers, I thought his stock was higher
 

bleedgreen

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"It WiLl CoSt EdMoNtOn A 1sT tO tRaDe CeCi"
Now it’s switched to how awful a gm Grier is because he didn’t get a first.

Ceci has value whether anyone wants to admit it or not. They’ll move him at the deadline too. Edmonton was never in as much trouble with this as so many people wanted to believe. They likely had both of these moves already lined up in case the needed them.
 

McBooya42

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You're right, I didn't intend to lump them all together, but rather highlight how quickly the consensus changed.

But didn't you say you didn't want him back?
View attachment 901860

It was not the consensus argument, and specifically, not the argument made by the poster I originally quoted.

We have no way of knowing what he would have made as a UFA. But we do know that a team was willing to pay 4.5Mx2 for him, which is what sets the market rate for him. That's how markets work.
Yes I did, because I was pissed off that he signed the offer sheet. I know he will be at the least a good top 4 D (playing on the left side), so it stung to think we'd lose him for a 2nd only. The kid has talent, and only finally seemed to be clicking in the playoffs. Oiler fans have seen flashes of what he can be, and by all accounts heard whispers of how he is one of the best on ice in practices and scrimmages. Frustration man...but Stan pulled some moves. I would rather keep him than lose him for a paltry pick. He needs opportunity, and faith shown to him by the org. Looks like they're doing just that.
 

Frank the Tank

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Aug 15, 2005
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I like everything I have read about Emberson. His analytics look decent from his 30 game stretch in SJ and Knoblauch knows him well from their year in Hartford.

Overall, the Oilers acquire reasonable replacements for Broberg and Holloway AND cap space to match the offer sheets. Neither deal tips the Oilers hand about what will happen tomorrow.
 
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57special

Posting the right way since 2012.
Sep 5, 2012
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I'm not sure if the asking for 1.8M part is actually true, or if that's what the Oilers were offering, and Broberg's camp was sitting on that offer hoping for more.
True... accepting rumour as fact is unwise, but i seem to recall that the source was ok.
 

stl76

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Ceci getting traded back to the oil at the TDL with a third team retaining 50% would be funny. Wouldn’t shock me either.
 

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