Speculation: Simple question, Playoffs Yes or No

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

We need Ullmark back in a big way. Leevi can only do well for so long. We really need Ullmark for the stretch in a favorable schedule set-up.

 

[DrEasy]

I'm looking at the schedule and I'm in awe of how brutal it is. We thought the 9-game road trip was bad, but it's going to be pretty much back-and-forth home and road games for the next 4 games, including another one of those back-to-back games where a home game vs Boston is followed by a road game vs New Jersey the next day. And that's the beginning of a 3-game road trip...

The 4-game homestand that follows it is against pretty strong teams (Toronto, Utah, Washington, Minnesota). And that's followed by yet another 4-game road trip, where three of the games are against Tampa (x2) and Florida... and which includes one game in Nashville followed by a game in Tampa the next day. And there's another couple of those "home game followed by a road game the next day" after that!

So basically it's still a schedule from hell where we'd do well to just tread water in the standings, until at least the break for the Gimmick Cup. If we're even 2-3 points out of the playoffs at that point I'll feel pretty good about our chances.

Because the schedule only looks truly favorable at the very end of the season, with 8 out of 9 last games at home, but we need to be in the playoff race so these games are actually meaningful.

 

[Big Muddy]

I don't disagree with that to an extent, but I still think Forsberg's performance overall has been poor enough that it's reasonable to accept that it is a significant circumstance that leaves the team handicapped. Not many teams in the league are going to win consistently with their goaltender giving them an .883 save % and some of the early bad goals he gives up. It's team killing territory and I think they also play like it when he's in there. I think there's an avenue to overcome and succeed despite bad goaltending, but the numbers are bad enough to question if that's actually a reasonable expectation. Imo, if the team is going to string wins together, it also has to include Forsberg putting up better numbers, and personally, I have no faith at all that's going to happen. Korpisalo this year would be an upgrade, which is insane to ponder given he hasn't been particularly good with soft deployment this year.

I’m not saying goaltending is not an issue. I much prefer Leevi and feel he gives us a better chance of winning. But like I said, I just hope the team doesn’t deflate after a bad goal. That’s why I mentioned the mental attitude and dealing with adversity. Getting down a goal even if its a bad goal isn’t the end of the game. But, I suspect this kind of thinking just gets lost in the noise in here.

Sometimes I think this is the Forsberg Forum LOL. Its like what the other 19 skaters do doesn’t matter as talk about Forsberg sucks all of the oxygen out of the room. It would be nice if we could get to a situation where this topic doesn’t dominate discussion.

 

[Micklebot]

I’m not saying goaltending is not an issue. I much prefer Leevi and feel he gives us a better chance of winning. But like I said, I just hope the team doesn’t deflate after a bad goal. That’s why I mentioned the mental attitude and dealing with adversity. Getting down a goal even if its a bad goal isn’t the end of the game. But, I suspect this kind of thinking just gets lost in the noise in here.

Sometimes I think this is the Forsberg Forum LOL. Its like what the other 19 skaters do doesn’t matter as talk about Forsberg sucks all of the oxygen out of the room. It would be nice if we could get to a situation where this topic doesn’t dominate discussion.

As a low event team, bad goals matter a bit more for us. The team has talked a lot about how calm Levi is, and that's a trait he shares with Ullmark who also seems super calm in net. Those two also seem to be able not let out as many rebounds as our past goalies (forsberg included) which I think helps more than people realize, because even a rebound into a safe spot means no line change and potentially chasing the play a bit.

 

[armani]

f*** yeah!

 

[swiftwin]

No playoffs and that is a certain guarantee

They are just 1 losing streak away or bad stretch of hockey (which is inevitable with this team) and they will be sitting where Flyers is currently

We're also one winning streak away from 1st in the division.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

I’m not saying goaltending is not an issue. I much prefer Leevi and feel he gives us a better chance of winning. But like I said, I just hope the team doesn’t deflate after a bad goal. That’s why I mentioned the mental attitude and dealing with adversity. Getting down a goal even if its a bad goal isn’t the end of the game. But, I suspect this kind of thinking just gets lost in the noise in here.

Sometimes I think this is the Forsberg Forum LOL. Its like what the other 19 skaters do doesn’t matter as talk about Forsberg sucks all of the oxygen out of the room. It would be nice if we could get to a situation where this topic doesn’t dominate discussion.

I just think Forsberg has been that bad so as to be too much of a problem to overcome most nights he's in. Like the bolded, in a bubble, wouldn't be so bad and needs to be overcome sometimes, but the frequency with which it happens with Forsberg is too much and often not just one. I'm a big believer that it all serves itself in a cycle, which is the bigger issue imo. Some think they just need to man up and overcome it, but to me it's no surprise that as soon as a goalie (Leevi) comes in and proves capable of stopping a few pucks along with not regularly letting in woofers that the rest of the teams play picks up and they put some much needed pucks in the net. They aren't a great team, they need some stability and Forsberg seems to be giving the opposite of that these last 2 years.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

As a low event team, bad goals matter a bit more for us. The team has talked a lot about how calm Levi is, and that's a trait he shares with Ullmark who also seems super calm in net. Those two also seem to be able not let out as many rebounds as our past goalies (forsberg included) which I think helps more than people realize, because even a rebound into a safe spot means no line change and potentially chasing the play a bit.

Your post and some discussion lately about our lack goal scoring got me thinking. So, I decided to look up where we stand in goals per game.

We are 21st league wide (tied with Rangers). I thought we’d be higher, but maybe this is based on impressions created earlier in the season. We also have the 18th best record based on point percentage. So, those 2 stats are not that far apart.

Maybe low event means low (or lower) scoring and the subject warrants a little more discussion? I do think the other poster is right though, it's hard to compete with the Forsberg machinations.

2024-25 NHL Team Skating Stat Leaders - ESPN

ESPN is the place for NHL stats! Find a list of the Skating team stat leaders for the 2024-25 NHL Regular Season.

www.espn.com

 

[swiftwin]

Your post and some discussion lately about our lack goal scoring got me thinking. So, I decided to look up where we stand in goals per game.

We are 21st league wide (tied with Rangers). I thought we’d be higher, but maybe this is based on impressions created earlier in the season. We also have the 18th best record based on point percentage. So, those 2 stats are not that far apart.

Maybe low event means low (or lower) scoring and the subject warrants a little more discussion? I do think the other poster is right though, it's hard to compete with the Forsberg machinations.

2024-25 NHL Team Skating Stat Leaders - ESPN

ESPN is the place for NHL stats! Find a list of the Skating team stat leaders for the 2024-25 NHL Regular Season.

www.espn.com

At home, were tied for 9th most goals per game.

IMO, our lack of scoring has more to do with the fact that we've been on the road so much, where other teams can get the line matchups they want. We have the 3rd fewest home games played so far this season. With all the injuries, we're a bit short on depth scoring, so other teams can focus on Stutzle and Tkachuk.

 

[aragorn]

I think they will be in a playoff race leading right up to the last week of the season & potentially getting in. They need Ullmark to get back along with Leevi & both play well for the remainder of the season. If they can get decent goaltending they can beat anyone anytime but they also have to reduce their mistakes & penalties against consistently.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

At home, were tied for 9th most goals per game.

IMO, our lack of scoring has more to do with the fact that we've been on the road so much, where other teams can get the line matchups they want. We have the 3rd fewest home games played so far this season. With all the injuries, we're a bit short on depth scoring, so other teams can focus on Stutzle and Tkachuk.

I’m glad that when we inevitably make the playoffs then, we’ll be able to play all of our games in our barn.

 

[Micklebot]

Your post and some discussion lately about our lack goal scoring got me thinking. So, I decided to look up where we stand in goals per game.

We are 21st league wide (tied with Rangers). I thought we’d be higher, but maybe this is based on impressions created earlier in the season. We also have the 18th best record based on point percentage. So, those 2 stats are not that far apart.

Maybe low event means low (or lower) scoring and the subject warrants a little more discussion? I do think the other poster is right though, it's hard to compete with the Forsberg machinations.

2024-25 NHL Team Skating Stat Leaders - ESPN

ESPN is the place for NHL stats! Find a list of the Skating team stat leaders for the 2024-25 NHL Regular Season.

www.espn.com

When I say low event, I'm more talking about the total chances for/against,

So for example, 5v5 we are:

20th in combined Goals (both for and against added together) per game
28th in combined xGoals
30th in combined scoring chances, and
21st in combined HD chances.

Not a lot of excitement happens in our games...

 

[Beech]

Since Dec 1, 2024
Games played 19
record 11-6-2 for 24 points.. points wise 4th in the conference. Points per game wise: 4th in the conference (1.26 p/g)

All the while 12 road to 7 home

12 road games: 6-4-2 for 14 points and 4th in terms of points per game
7 road: 5-2-0 for 10 points. And 6th for points per game


That is actually, really good. And DOES affirm/suggest that the playoffs are a real possibility

a point/game ratio of 1.26.. applied to the remaining 40 games is 50 more points and so 95 p season!!... They can cool off to 40 more points and might still sneak in.

At 43 more points, they are almost sure to make it.

The craping of the bed from game 1 to game 23 appears over (23 games, 21 points or a ppg of 0.91). They are now a full .35 ppg better. (that would mean an extra 29 points if applied to an 82 game season). In fact both points wise and ppg has them 9th overall in the league since Dec 1, 2024.

 

[Answer]

We're also one winning streak away from 1st in the division.

So are the Flyers, who are almost dead last in the conference and I am one million away from being a millionaire.

Lets be realistic and not get carried away. You and I both know which scenario is more likely to happen given their long extensive track record.

 

[swiftwin]

So are the Flyers, who are almost dead last in the conference and I am one million away from being a millionaire.

Lets be realistic and not get carried away. You and I both know which scenario is more likely to happen given their long extensive track record.

This team's extensive track record is 42 games. Where we are currently in a wildcard spot by p%.

 

[Answer]

This team's extensive track record is 42 games. Where we are currently in a wildcard spot by p%.

We have seen this trailer a bit too many times now. We have seen what this Team does as soon as they claim a WC spot or get really close to it. We have absolutely no reason to think that it will change now, except for the fact their Team defense is improved, but with the expense of being dead last in offense during that stretch

 

[Tuna99]

That makes the probability of the Senators making the playoffs lower. If we had beaten Detroit, Buffalo and Montreal, I would have greater confidence in the team but this losses have significantly affected my view of the team.

In context these loses were explainable, injuries led by Ullmark along with Amadio and Hamonic just tweaks the lineup a bit for a team that was in the zone. Also they got the flu and long road trip and the holidays is always kind of a shit show.

The winning team game is back after this weekend and they are back in the zone on winning games. Last time we saw them in the zone like this it lasted 10 games and I think they went 7-2-1. They are 2-0 in my view and they will win tonight and be back in a playoff spot at 10pm tonight. I think the team game is at the point where they only need good solid goaltending and not 30+ saves per night goaltending. They just need around 25-27 saves and some big stops to keep games close and the team game will take over from there.

Getting back to .500 on the road will
Be a point of emphasis tonight and I can’t see the will of this team losing tonight vs NYI. I just see sheer team unity and grit taking over tonight no matter what the circumstances and winning

 

[StoicSensFan]

We have seen this trailer a bit too many times now. We have seen what this Team does as soon as they claim a WC spot or get really close to it. We have absolutely no reason to think that it will change now, except for the fact their Team defense is improved, but with the expense of being dead last in offense during that stretch

The team hasn't looked this cohesive since 2017

 

[Cosmix]

In context these loses were explainable, injuries led by Ullmark along with Amadio and Hamonic just tweaks the lineup a bit for a team that was in the zone. Also they got the flu and long road trip and the holidays is always kind of a shit show.

The winning team game is back after this weekend and they are back in the zone on winning games. Last time we saw them in the zone like this it lasted 10 games and I think they went 7-2-1. They are 2-0 in my view and they will win tonight and be back in a playoff spot at 10pm tonight. I think the team game is at the point where they only need good solid goaltending and not 30+ saves per night goaltending. They just need around 25-27 saves and some big stops to keep games close and the team game will take over from there.

Getting back to .500 on the road will
Be a point of emphasis tonight and I can’t see the will of this team losing tonight vs NYI. I just see sheer team unity and grit taking over tonight no matter what the circumstances and winning

I would like to agree with you; however, I see too many players out right now with AHL subs still playing:

Injured: Perron, Amadio, Bernard-Docker, Hamonic, Ullmark

AHL: Ostapchuk, Matinplano, Gaudette, MacEwen, Merilainen, etc.

BUT: Merilainen looks like the real deal in goal; Matinplano is not a major step down from JBD; Gaudette has some scoring ability; Ostapchuk is looking good as a 4th liner.

 

[Tuna99]

I would like to agree with you; however, I see too many players out right now with AHL subs still playing:

Injured: Perron, Amadio, Bernard-Docker, Hamonic, Ullmark

AHL: Ostapchuk, Matinplano, Gaudette, MacEwen, Merilainen, etc.

BUT: Merilainen looks like the real deal in goal; Matinplano is not a major step down from JBD; Gaudette has some scoring ability; Ostapchuk is looking good as a 4th liner.

They are kinda turning into a different guy every night team - who knows who it’ll be tonight but someone will step up.

 

[swiftwin]

We have seen this trailer a bit too many times now. We have seen what this Team does as soon as they claim a WC spot or get really close to it. We have absolutely no reason to think that it will change now, except for the fact their Team defense is improved, but with the expense of being dead last in offense during that stretch

I'm not sure what you're on about. The team has been sitting in a WC spot for most of the past month, and is now even in the #1 WC spot (by p%).

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

We have seen this trailer a bit too many times now. We have seen what this Team does as soon as they claim a WC spot or get really close to it. We have absolutely no reason to think that it will change now, except for the fact their Team defense is improved, but with the expense of being dead last in offense during that stretch

Don't think the team ever actually claimed the Wild Card in years past.

 

[Micklebot]

General consensus among the prediction models seems to be between 53% and 63% chance we make the playoffs.