Sign Marner and Tavares before playoffs?

[MilkofthePoppy]

If the Leafs win the Cup and Marner wins the Conn Smyth I have no problems with saying goodbye. Mission Accomplished...

 

[TMLBlueandWhite]

The most appropriately compensated forwards in the world continue to cash in.

Hard to believe money is even a motivating factor for these guys. But time and again player after player has a career season during a contract year. Of course once they sign on the dotted line the inevitable happens and they go back to dogging it again.

The whole Studs'n'Duds philosophy is misguided.

It fosters an "us" vs "them" atmosphere. The imbalance in pay structure sets up the perfect storm for a divided locker room. And the Leafs represent the gold standard for income disparity.

They capped it out to all hell before they even won a goddamn round.

The window slammed shut thanks to some incredibly short sighted signings like these. Inept leadership with unmoveable contracts continue to take home the bulk of the earnings in a system that's always been flawed. For the price these guys demand you should expect them to carry the team.

Not ask the GM to build a team to carry them.

 

[Racer88]

It’s starting to look like Matthews is the dude that should go

 

[conFABulator]

I'm echoing what some have already said here—what's the rationale for signing either of these guys in-season without a significant underpay?

Tavares is playing great and showing real leadership even without the "C," including how he handled stepping down as captain. Could his value ever be higher than it is now? Do we think he'd realistically choose to leave Toronto? If we're talking numbers, I'd need to see something like three years at $12–13M to justify signing him now. Personally, I'd prefer a four-year deal at $14M or five years at $15M. Even then, I think we could do the same in the off-season, so why do it now?

The same logic applies to Marner. His value is sky-high, and he clearly wants to stay here. Plus, we have the advantage of offering an eighth year. If he got Draisaitl's $14M AAV on the open market, that's $98M over seven years (the max he could sign elsewhere). Offering him that over eight years here works out to about $12.25M AAV—less than Matthews but more than Nylander, and similar to Nylander as a percentage of the cap. If he turns that down in the offseason, we let him walk. But I don't think he will, and neither do we want that. If we were to negotiate in-season, I'd offer him Nylander's AAV without a full NMC—if he declines, we hold firm.

Bottom line: Let them both play it out and negotiate in the offseason. The only scenario where we "lose" is if they maintain this level through the regular season and crush it in the playoffs, leading to a small AAV bump (maybe $1M more). But honestly, if that happens, we’re not really losing—we're seeing playoff success, which is the goal anyway.

 

[ToneDog]

A ppg would have made JT 12th in scoring for all centers in the league last season so that's ahead of a whole bunch of club's #`1s.

Stamkos got 8 x 4 coming off a -21 season. That has got o be close to market value if Tavares scores this way all season. I know some people would love to have him eat value because he was overpaid on his last deal but who else has ever done that? I would think anything under 8 x 4 is a bargain for a ppg center. Thats still a lot of money but if your options are Brock Nelson and Matt Duchene what do you do if he does take a hike? My guess is Duchene will sign for well under $8M but I would be surprised if Dallas let him get to market.

I'm not saying they need to resign Tavares because they haven't won jack with him but the idea that the club has real leverage to make him take any discount is not true. If he has a strong year he will have fifteen landing spots. If they would rather pay Nelson 6.5 x 4 to be their #2 guy that is possibly their second best option. But lets see what Tavares' year looks like first.

I doubt he will be this effective in the playoffs, at which point he gives you a team friendly deal or he walks. If he plays well, pay him or he walks.

For me, it is either a team friendly number or let him walk.

 

[ToneDog]

I'm echoing what some have already said here—what's the rationale for signing either of these guys in-season without a significant overpay?

Tavares is playing great and showing real leadership even without the "C," including how he handled stepping down as captain. Could his value ever be higher than it is now? Do we think he'd realistically choose to leave Toronto? If we're talking numbers, I'd need to see something like three years at $12–13M to justify signing him now. Personally, I'd prefer a four-year deal at $14M or five years at $15M. Even then, I think we could do the same in the off-season, so why do it now?

The same logic applies to Marner. His value is sky-high, and he clearly wants to stay here. Plus, we have the advantage of offering an eighth year. If he got Draisaitl's $14M AAV on the open market, that's $98M over seven years (the max he could sign elsewhere). Offering him that over eight years here works out to about $12.25M AAV—less than Matthews but more than Nylander, and similar to Nylander as a percentage of the cap. If he turns that down in the offseason, we let him walk. But I don't think he will, and neither do we want that. If we were to negotiate in-season, I'd offer him Nylander's AAV without a full NMC—if he declines, we hold firm.

Bottom line: Let them both play it out and negotiate in the offseason. The only scenario where we "lose" is if they maintain this level through the regular season and crush it in the playoffs, leading to a small AAV bump (maybe $1M more). But honestly, if that happens, we’re not really losing—we're seeing playoff success, which is the goal anyway.

As Mirtle said, if he'd sign the Nylander deal, a deal would have been done. From all the talk I've heard from the insiders, Leafs are willing to make him one of the highest paid players so if a deal is not done, I am guessing he is asking close to $14m, which is laughable. One goal in October and one in December. 10 assists in list last 10 games and 15 points in 12 games in December.

Will be interesting to see how he performs in the new year given the grind in the schedule. Does he get worn out or does he feast on worn out teams?

 

[francis246]

As Mirtle said, if he'd sign the Nylander deal, a deal would have been done. From all the talk I've heard from the insiders, Leafs are willing to make him one of the highest paid players so if a deal is not done, I am guessing he is asking close to $14m, which is laughable. One goal in October and one in December. 10 assists in list last 10 games and 15 points in 12 games in December.

Will be interesting to see how he performs in the new year given the grind in the schedule. Does he get worn out or does he feast on worn out teams?

Like i said in the Marner thread, money most likely isn’t the issue. It seems now it’s coming down to does Marner want to be here or not. Unfortunately OR fortunately I think this happens with players a lot. The longer you wait, the more your mind starts thinking about whether the grass is greener somewhere else. That’s exactly what happened to Stamkos the first time he went to UFA, it happened to Tavares, it happened to Johnny Gaudreau when he went to CBJ. For all those guys it was never the money, the money was there for them if they wanted to resign but as they got closer to UFA they just started imagining what it would be like to play somewhere else. I’m pretty sure that’s what’s happening here. Based on all the insiders comments nothing about this screams money. The leafs are willing to make him rich.

Not sure how you’re getting from this that the only reason is he wants more money.

 

[ToneDog]

Like i said in the Marner thread, money most likely isn’t the issue. It seems now it’s coming down to does Marner want to be here or not. Unfortunately OR fortunately I think this happens with players a lot. The longer you wait, the more your mind starts thinking about whether the grass is greener somewhere else. That’s exactly what happened to Stamkos the first time he went to UFA, it happened to Tavares, it happened to Johnny Gaudreau when he went to CBJ. For all those guys it was never the money, the money was there for them if they wanted to resign but as they got closer to UFA they just started imagining what it would be like to play somewhere else. I’m pretty sure that’s what’s happening here. Based on all the insiders comments nothing about this screams money. The leafs are willing to make him rich.

Not sure how you’re getting from this that the only reason is he wants more money.

As I said, I am guessing/speculating on his ask based on what I have heard from Mirtle, LeBrun, Dregs, Kyperos etc. You could be right that it is not only the money but his ask is very likely close to $14m. I mean if you are debating on whether you want to stay or not, wouldn't you ask for the moon?

Again from Mirtle's mouth to our ears. "If he would have accepted the Nylander contract, a deal would have been done". He said this on the Bunkis podcast. Look it up if you doubt it.

Found it for you. Marner contract talk starts at 27 minute mark and he answers after Bunkis asks him what number gets it done at 28:12. He says if he accepts the NYlander deal, it would have been done. Then says with cap increases, the Nylander deal is $12.8m so the number is even higher. Hence why I'm guessing probably closer to the $13.8m Kyper said and the $14m LeBrun says he is starting at. Mirtle also says Leafs are prepared to make him one of the top 6 or 7 highest paid players in the league. This team knows how to shoot itself in the face. I'll give them that.

The Important Marner Questions No One’s Asking w/ James Mirtle + Each Toronto Team’s Biggest Question w/ Sid Seixeiro - The JD Bunkis Podcast | iHeart

<p>James Mirtle, senior writer for The Athletic, joins JD to discuss the parity of the NHL regular season, Toronto's moral victories, lessons from the Leafs' latest stretch, Nick Robertson's stock, William Nylander's success, Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner's future contract, Morgan Rielly's...

www.iheart.com

 

[therealkoho]

It’s starting to look like Matthews is the dude that should go

The Leafs have bowed down to him starting with that RFA contract and then have since given him everything but the fuzz in their pockets. I've believed in moving him for more than a couple of years. Awarding him the captaincy which just felt like a hollow gesture, in fact I felt like it was part of his contract demands. Yeah he loves the big smoke alright.

 

[thewave]

Do they have a three year window to win? When will it start?

This year and the next two after. I think after that it's contract hell and serious age decline on the D. Matthews may even be up for contract that last season or the one after. Either way it doesn't get easier.

 

[Nineteen67]

This year and the next two after. I think after that it's contract hell and serious age decline on the D.

Can they win with the current roster? I think anything over 2 playoff wins would be a somewhat successful season

 

[thewave]

Can they win with the current roster? I think anything over 2 playoff wins would be a somewhat successful season

If Stolarz is healthy. OEL Tanev are top form, Rielly wakes up and plays his best. Maybe add another top four at the deadline and a C. Minten and Grebenkin may step up and the best case Cowan earns a spot at the end of the season. Obviously Matthews MM and WN need to be top form and Patches and JT doing what they do.

I think that can go deep. That's including reasonable number of injuries but not to Stolarz

 

[Nineteen67]

If Stolarz is healthy. OEL Tanev are top form, Rielly wakes up and plays his best. Maybe add another top four at the deadline and a C. Minten and Grebenkin may step up and the best case Cowan earns a spot at the end of the season. Obviously Matthews MM and WN need to be top form and Patches and JT doing what they do.

I think that can go deep. That's including reasonable number of injuries but not to Stolarz

Lot of “ifs” and “never done before” which is why I feel like being competitive in a series would be an OK season.

 

[thewave]

Lot of “ifs” and “never done before” which is why I feel like being competitive in a series would be an OK season.

It's a lot closer then we gave been pretty much any other year in 30+ yrs. It's a good team finally with a good tender.

 

[Nineteen67]

It's a lot closer then we gave been pretty much any other year in 30+ yrs. It's a good team finally with a good tender.

They should give any of the possible playoff matchups a pretty good series

 

[ToneDog]

107-22 in favour of waiting until after the playoffs. Anybody know how Shanny, Tre and Jersey boy voted?

 

[Craig Button]

I say trade them both at the TD

No one is gonna win a Stanley Cup playing in Toronto

 

[JT AM da real deal]

No one is getting signed before da playoff run unless they come real cheap which is da Ed Rogers way .. Shanny will be 1st to go if team fails again this playoff run .. then new hockey ops guy will make decisions on players

 

[thewave]

No one is getting signed before da playoff run unless they come real cheap which is da Ed Rogers way .. Shanny will be 1st to go if team fails again this playoff run .. then new hockey ops guy will make decisions on players

Sounds about right

 

[hullsy47]

I can’t answer this right now. It depends what they do in the playoffs.

If they lose in the 1st round again and Marner and Tavares play the way they have in the last 8 years? Hell no to both.

If they make it to the cup finals or ECF and they show out? Yes.

Wait till playoffs are over.if nothing has changed let berube have some input

 

[kevsh]

All I know at this point - given the hatty tonight and him creeping up the Art Ross leaderboard - Mitch is going to get P-A-I-D this Summer.

If not Toronto, then somewhere else, but it's going to be raining money for that guy.

 

[Sundinisagod]

After the playoffs for both.

JT likely signs a Tanev style contract, that should work for both sides as the Leafs get a discounted cap hit, JT still gets paid and retires a Leaf.

For Marner, I think an offer of 12.5 x 8 will be hard to beat, especially if he has another sub par playoff performance. IMHO he could get some 13 x 7 offers but i dont thonk those will be from contenders. Expect Sakic to get Rantanen done at somethng just below Nate Mack, should help keep Marner's price in line. Personally though I'd rather just let him walk if his playoffs are bad.

 

[Antropovsky]

Either Domi's playmaking is severely underrated around the league or Marners is severely overrated.

Last year Domi had more primary assists per 60 and more total assist despite playing significantly less minutes with skilled players compared to Marner

I know there are a couple posters following this as much as me, wanted to provide an update!

Hopefully we can find away to get Domi back with Matthews when he returns.

2024

2025

 

[Gary Nylund]

If Stolarz is healthy. OEL Tanev are top form, Rielly wakes up and plays his best. Maybe add another top four at the deadline and a C. Minten and Grebenkin may step up and the best case Cowan earns a spot at the end of the season. Obviously Matthews MM and WN need to be top form and Patches and JT doing what they do.

I think that can go deep. That's including reasonable number of injuries but not to Stolarz

This probably describes a number of teams - if this, this, this and that all go right, this team could go deep. The goaltending looks really good which gives me some hope but the biggest if here is the core being in top form. Nylander is a good bet to play well but Matthews, Marner and JT as a group haven't come close to earning their pay in the playoffs.

 

[thewave]

This probably describes a number of teams - if this, this, this and that all go right, this team could go deep. The goaltending looks really good which gives me some hope but the biggest if here is the core being in top form. Nylander is a good bet to play well but Matthews, Marner and JT as a group haven't come close to earning their pay in the playoffs.

That's how championships are won. The job of the organization is for management to put the right combination of players in the best situation to win. Dubas and Keefe were proven to be woefully inept and here we are. After that there is luck and things like that which factor into the outcome.