Sign Marner and Tavares before playoffs?

Would you sign Marner and Tavares before the playoffs

  • Yes

    Votes: 21 17.8%
  • No

    Votes: 97 82.2%

  • Total voters
    118
  • This poll will close: .

HockeyVirus

Woll stan.
Nov 15, 2020
20,192
31,039
Leafs have all the leverage with JT. They could easily get the AAV down to 4M with term. Sign him until he is 40 who cares about the final few years we are rebuilding.

Marner will never leave a dime on the table as we saw. No chance I sign him before playoff. If he is not part of the solution again, he needs to go. Don't care if it is for free. That's on Shanny for letting it get to this point.
 

ToDavid

Registered User
Dec 13, 2018
4,202
5,295
I don't get the desire to keep an aging player for several more years. Again, if the team could sign him for two years, no problem I'm on board. But anything longer than that wouldn't make sense to me.

The question is who are you replacing him with?

Bennet is the only compelling UFA C available this summer and prying him away from Florida is going to be a tall task. That situation is ripe for a very bad contract.
 

William Johnson

Registered User
Jan 8, 2012
29
88
It occurs to me that I haven't seen much (any?) discussion of the overall value of a Marner contract, whether it be here or in the media. Admittedly, this is likely because I haven't been paying close enough attention or/and just have an antiquated way of thinking about contracts. I've seen a ton of discussion of AAV of course. Would-be experts seem to love telling us that agents primarily look to cap percentage, too. I have no problem with any of that. What I do find somewhat curious, though, is that there doesn't seem to be much mention of the overall value of a potential contract. Is this because of the way these contracts are paid out in terms of signing bonuses etc and the corresponding tax implications? I used to know a fair bit about this stuff but that was during a different century when the salary cap didn't exist!

My point is that the gross value (pun intended) of a contract should be the most important issue that a player, especially one in their late 20s facing what is probably their last chance at a 'max' deal, would think about. I know that Matthews is betting on himself and one more huge payday with the medium term deal which kicked in this year. Some have said it's likely Ferris will want to mimic Matthews as he did last time and ask for the same, or similar, in terms of term. I have no idea, of course, but I also think Ferris is eyeing Nylander's 8 years at 11.5 as the floor. So, I go back to the overall value issue.

As we know, the Leafs can offer 8 years. Let's say Marner wants 13 million AAV. A bit less than Matthews, a lot more than Nylander. This is a number I've seen mentioned many times here and in the media as a seemingly reasonable or even likely demand. So, if it's 8 years, that's 104 million (in US dollars of course). Now, if the Leafs accept that, they are effectively saying we're giving you that since we think some other team could match that, or close to it. But to match, the other team would have offer him 14.9 million for 7 years (not to mention clear out how many players off their roster?). This would make Marner the highest paid player in terms of AAV, above Matthews, above comparable wingers like Draisatl and Kucherov, above Mackinnon and, of course, above McDavid. All Hart Trophy winners, amongst other plaudits. How much is a one-time Selke finalist worth these days, really? Put another way, if a team offered Marner 13 million AAV over 7 years (91 million), the Leafs could counter and offer him the equivalent 91 million -- for 11.38 over 8 years. Which is an eye opener since it also suggests the Leafs and Nylander thought he'd be worth 13+ on the open market! Gross value, indeed.

I'm firmly in the camp of wait and see, regardless of how it goes the rest of the season. Let him test the waters and see what the max 7-year offer is out there. Even if someone is willing to go to 14 mil (really?), that's still 'only' 12.25 x 8 for us, or let him walk if it's all about the cash. He's on record as saying he loves it here and wants to stay but those are just words and we all know the history with the agent.

Ideally, he finally plays like a man in the playoffs when it counts, scores some clutch goals and leads us deep. And then takes a team-friendly deal in the summer. I think the chances of either happening are near-zero, unfortunately. Hope I'm wrong.

I'd like to see more discussion of the implications of overall value. Happy to stand corrected on any of my assumptions and thanks in advance for any replies (and for taking the time to read this!).
 

Dekes For Days

Registered User
Sep 24, 2018
21,598
16,277
Put another way, if a team offered Marner 13 million AAV over 7 years (91 million), the Leafs could counter and offer him the equivalent 91 million -- for 11.38 over 8 years.
Years are worth money. A certain total over 7 years is always better than that same amount over 8. Players aren't just going to sign away years for free.
 
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notDatsyuk

Registered User
Jul 20, 2018
11,659
9,751
Not so sure about that, remember all the strategies the Marner haters came up with to make him want to be traded. They can do that to Matthews too. Hopefully if Matthews shits the playoff bed again they do put the plan into action and see if McD wants out of Edmonton
Ignoring the ad hominem attack, I agree that the people who think the team would be better if he were traded came up with some pretty weird 'strategies', but they would be no more likely to work with Matthews than with Marner.

Actually, since he's not a Toronto boy, he may be more willing to accept a trade if asked. Maybe if we packaged them?
 

LeafEgo

Registered User
Oct 8, 2021
1,070
936
Years are worth money. A certain total over 7 years is always better than that same amount over 8. Players aren't just going to sign away years for free.
Yep, Marner would be JT/Kadri age after a seven year deal. With cap inflation that eighth year could be worth 10M on his next contract.

There's some value in certainty on the eighth year of an eight year deal, but it doesn't seem to be that high from what I've seen.
 

therealkoho

Him/Leaf/fan
Jul 10, 2009
18,098
9,113
the Prior
I believe max is 7 years if he signs after July 1st.
Yes as per the revision of 20/21, and why I mentioned if the rule changed

It's kind of dumb that the team doesn't get the right of 1st refusal. It's all about the player, I guess. It also ensures that there will never ever be another Punch Imlach
 
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therealkoho

Him/Leaf/fan
Jul 10, 2009
18,098
9,113
the Prior
Ignoring the ad hominem attack, I agree that the people who think the team would be better if he were traded came up with some pretty weird 'strategies', but they would be no more likely to work with Matthews than with Marner.

Actually, since he's not a Toronto boy, he may be more willing to accept a trade if asked. Maybe if we packaged them?
Just thinking of McJeebuzz and Marner performing magic over a 6 or 7 seasons.

BTW what ad hominem attack are you talking about?
 

Lightsol

Registered User
Aug 2, 2005
5,385
3,392
It's actually amazing how many Leaf fans are hoping the management doubles down on a terrible decision by making a second one and hoping it works out...
 

William Johnson

Registered User
Jan 8, 2012
29
88
Years are worth money. A certain total over 7 years is always better than that same amount over 8. Players aren't just going to sign away years for free.
This goes without saying, surely, as a general principle.

But, if it's mostly about the money, and we apply this logic to the specific situation Ferris is in right now, it would suggest the following purely monetary calculations: 1) The likelihood that Marner can find another team (does it not matter which team as long as they pay up?) willing to pay in the region of 14 million over 7 years; 2) Assuming the Leafs offer to match at a lower AAV over 8 years (which hopefully isn't a given), also convincing Marner he shouldn't sign away a single year for free because he can get another big contract in the 2032-33 season when he is 35 years old; 3) The loss of other income from leaving Toronto in what is bound to be a flurry of negative PR, given his public proclamations of his love for the city etc.

My opinion about this kind of thinking also goes without saying.

Ironically, the statement you quoted, which is taken on its own without the fuller context, is part of a larger point about what I perceive is a general avoidance of discussion of the overall value of a prospective contract.
 

William Johnson

Registered User
Jan 8, 2012
29
88
Yep, Marner would be JT/Kadri age after a seven year deal. With cap inflation that eighth year could be worth 10M on his next contract.

There's some value in certainty on the eighth year of an eight year deal, but it doesn't seem to be that high from what I've seen.
Sorry if I'm misunderstanding you, but I think what you're saying is that Mitch would rather gamble that someone is going to pay him an extra 10M for that 8th year when he's 35. The @150 million the Leafs would have paid him lifetime to that point if he stayed in Toronto isn't going to be quite enough.

Again, I know what my answer is.
 
Last edited:

Dekes For Days

Registered User
Sep 24, 2018
21,598
16,277
This goes without saying, surely, as a general principle. But, if it's mostly about the money, and we apply this logic to the specific situation Ferris is in right now, it would suggest the following purely monetary calculations: 1) The likelihood that Marner can find another team (does it not matter which team as long as they pay up?) willing to pay in the region of 14 million over 7 years; 2) Assuming the Leafs offer to match at a lower AAV over 8 years (which hopefully isn't a given), also convincing Marner he shouldn't sign away a single year for free because he can get another big contract in the 2032-33 season when he is 35 years old; 3) The loss of other income from leaving Toronto in what is bound to be a flurry of negative PR, given his public proclamations of his love for the city etc. My opinion about this kind of thinking also goes without saying. Ironically, the statement you quoted, which is taken on its own without the fuller context, is part of a larger point about what I perceive is a general avoidance of discussion of the overall value of a prospective contract.
What avoidance of discussion? What fuller context? Your posts have just been trying to justify an expectation that Marner do something that nobody has ever done and give you a year for free because you wanna. Term on a contract matters to a player.

Marner isn't going to have any trouble finding an abundance of teams willing to pay him that kind of money; especially with a spiking cap. Marner isn't going to have any trouble getting a contract for his age 35 season, outside of career-threatening injury. And while guaranteeing that 8th year money is worth something, there's no value if the 8th year money is zero. Leaving Toronto may come with a slight decrease in side job income potential, but it's pretty hard to sell 'you can do extra work to make up the difference' as a positive, and leaving Toronto also comes with financial benefits that the player doesn't need to work extra jobs for.

And while he may take a short-term PR hit in Toronto, he would get away from the long-term toxicity of a place that already treats him like garbage, and get to be in a place that actually appreciates him. Most fans would rightfully blame Treliving for playing the FAFO game, and finding out. Especially if it was revealed that we were lowballing him with the ridiculous expectation that he give us a year for free.
 

ToneDog

56 years and counting. #FireTheShanaClan!
Jun 11, 2017
25,751
25,215
Richmond Hill, ON
Seems like the Marner camp is now using the threat of leaving as leverage against a team that has been known to negotiate like a 3rd grader. Will be interesting to see how it plays out but Mitch is not doing anything to change his reputation of being as greedy as his linemates.
 

ToneDog

56 years and counting. #FireTheShanaClan!
Jun 11, 2017
25,751
25,215
Richmond Hill, ON
No discounts, fine. So why bother signing either, may as well wait until July 1st to see the offers and then decide.
Seems like the smart/logical/right move if they do not cave because they think/believe he might walk for nothing. Not sure why the Marner camp wants to wait if the Leafs are willing to sign him in the regular season unless the Leafs are lowballing them. Whatever that means when Leafs are probably willing to pay him 50% more than Reinhart and make him one of the top 5 paid players in the league (as per Mirtle).
 

Confucius

There is no try, Just do
Feb 8, 2009
23,830
8,411
Toronto
Seems like the smart/logical/right move if they do not cave because they think/believe he might walk for nothing. Not sure why the Marner camp wants to wait if the Leafs are willing to sign him in the regular season unless the Leafs are lowballing them.
There is no danger in waiting, if we have to be the best offer anyway. Or is the rumour now going to morph into will take less from someone else. lol
 
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thewave

Registered User
Jun 17, 2011
42,834
13,257
Seems like the Marner camp is now using the threat of leaving as leverage against a team that has been known to negotiate like a 3rd grader. Will be interesting to see how it plays out but Mitch is not doing anything to change his reputation of being as greedy as his linemates.

He is the most greedy by a Longshot.

Matthews drops Rockets on the table. Best goal scorer in the world. Pay me. Everyone in the NHL would pay him.

Nylander fights to get a bit more than Ehlers and then comes back for 6.9m which proves to be an underpay. Says you did me dirty give me a bit more and I will do the full 8 years which is what happened. I see his new contract as 10m +1m a year to make the past right. Whatever, he can get a zone on command and is in a rocket race now. Legit clutch player. That matters a lot

Mitch threw a sissy fit saying he was as good or better than Matthews, demanded equal pay essentially. Has no hardware. Has no honest PO game 5 6 7 performances at all etc and is now demanding big money equal to Matthews or more apparently.

This isn't some genius level shit to grasp. Show me don't tell me. Carry the team to the next level Mitch. You're getting 11m now. Nobody cares about Mitch Marner in America. The endorsements are gone.
 

Dekes For Days

Registered User
Sep 24, 2018
21,598
16,277
Matthews drops Rockets on the table. Best goal scorer in the world. Pay me. Everyone in the NHL would pay him.
Like Matthews, he's one of the best players in the world. Everybody in the NHL would pay Marner too.
Nylander fights to get a bit more than Ehlers and then comes back for 6.9m which proves to be an underpay. Says you did me dirty
Paying players what they'd earned when they signed is not doing them dirty.
Mitch threw a sissy fit saying he was as good or better than Matthews, demanded equal pay essentially.
Marner has never been paid equal to Matthews.
 

thewave

Registered User
Jun 17, 2011
42,834
13,257
Like Matthews, he's one of the best players in the world. Everybody in the NHL would pay Marner too.

Paying players what they'd earned when they signed is not doing them dirty.

Marner has never been paid equal to Matthews.

I actually factor in hardware and playoff performances. Marner doesn't have any good games 5 6 7. Hardly comes through in clutch situations. He is paid quite a bit by local endorsements. His brand is nothing in other markets. I would let him test the market no matter what. Same with JT.

Show me don't tell. Let's get to the conference finals on two of the biggest bs contracts ever signed. No results. Time to put up or shut up.
 

Dekes For Days

Registered User
Sep 24, 2018
21,598
16,277
I actually factor in hardware and playoff performances.
You seem to be factoring in whatever random stuff you want in whatever way you want to get to the conclusion you want.
Nylander doesn't have any hardware anyway, and neither him or Matthews have been better in the playoffs.
 

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