It occurs to me that I haven't seen much (any?) discussion of the overall value of a Marner contract, whether it be here or in the media. Admittedly, this is likely because I haven't been paying close enough attention or/and just have an antiquated way of thinking about contracts. I've seen a ton of discussion of AAV of course. Would-be experts seem to love telling us that agents primarily look to cap percentage, too. I have no problem with any of that. What I do find somewhat curious, though, is that there doesn't seem to be much mention of the overall value of a potential contract. Is this because of the way these contracts are paid out in terms of signing bonuses etc and the corresponding tax implications? I used to know a fair bit about this stuff but that was during a different century when the salary cap didn't exist!
My point is that the gross value (pun intended) of a contract should be the most important issue that a player, especially one in their late 20s facing what is probably their last chance at a 'max' deal, would think about. I know that Matthews is betting on himself and one more huge payday with the medium term deal which kicked in this year. Some have said it's likely Ferris will want to mimic Matthews as he did last time and ask for the same, or similar, in terms of term. I have no idea, of course, but I also think Ferris is eyeing Nylander's 8 years at 11.5 as the floor. So, I go back to the overall value issue.
As we know, the Leafs can offer 8 years. Let's say Marner wants 13 million AAV. A bit less than Matthews, a lot more than Nylander. This is a number I've seen mentioned many times here and in the media as a seemingly reasonable or even likely demand. So, if it's 8 years, that's 104 million (in US dollars of course). Now, if the Leafs accept that, they are effectively saying we're giving you that since we think some other team could match that, or close to it. But to match, the other team would have offer him 14.9 million for 7 years (not to mention clear out how many players off their roster?). This would make Marner the highest paid player in terms of AAV, above Matthews, above comparable wingers like Draisatl and Kucherov, above Mackinnon and, of course, above McDavid. All Hart Trophy winners, amongst other plaudits. How much is a one-time Selke finalist worth these days, really? Put another way, if a team offered Marner 13 million AAV over 7 years (91 million), the Leafs could counter and offer him the equivalent 91 million -- for 11.38 over 8 years. Which is an eye opener since it also suggests the Leafs and Nylander thought he'd be worth 13+ on the open market! Gross value, indeed.
I'm firmly in the camp of wait and see, regardless of how it goes the rest of the season. Let him test the waters and see what the max 7-year offer is out there. Even if someone is willing to go to 14 mil (really?), that's still 'only' 12.25 x 8 for us, or let him walk if it's all about the cash. He's on record as saying he loves it here and wants to stay but those are just words and we all know the history with the agent.
Ideally, he finally plays like a man in the playoffs when it counts, scores some clutch goals and leads us deep. And then takes a team-friendly deal in the summer. I think the chances of either happening are near-zero, unfortunately. Hope I'm wrong.
I'd like to see more discussion of the implications of overall value. Happy to stand corrected on any of my assumptions and thanks in advance for any replies (and for taking the time to read this!).
