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Zybalto said:
...and all threw this their division and conference have also fell off a cliff in terms of quality making things easier for them to inflate their records, the Wild especially benefitting in the uber lopsided West last year (Does anyone really think they are as good as or better than Tampa, Boston, the Islanders, etc.)

Looking deeper at the Wild, that great record was almost completely built off dominating 4 of the worst teams in the league.

Record against Anaheim/SJ/LA/Arizona: 25-6-1

I don't think they will hold up quite the same when they have to play everyone this year and if their defensive and goaltending numbers continue to slip, how competitive will they really be? At least the Jets have one of the elite goalies in the world in net.
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The Wild will fall off this year simply by them once again moving on from core players in Suter (still a 2/3D and Parise a solid 3rd liner). The Wild will be 4th to 6tth in the Central behind the Avs, Blues, and Stars, competing with the Hawks and Jets for the two wild-card spots

The pacific I agree is very weak, but the Central is a quality division and won't be much worse than the Atlantic next year

Avs vs Tampa will be Tampa due to experience but Avs on paper should be favorites if they can stop choking

Blues vs Boston is a very close matchup with the Blues being much deeper at forward (probably the deepest team in the NHL from an offensive perspective).

Stars vs Toronto is another close matchup. Both teams have some elite players (Matthews/Marner, Seguin/Heiskanen). Stars should have the better defense while leafs have a better offense

Flordia vs Jets is Flordia on Paper, but the Jets look quite improved and like you mentioned have a top 3 goalie in the league. If Jets make the playoffs they are likelier to win a round especially via the pacific matchup as a wildcard then Flordia is, being historic underachievers

Rest of the Division
Habs vs Hawks is not that much of a difference, hawks are honestly more impressive, and the habs generally suck in the regular season these past 3 years.

Wild vs Sens, will be another close matchup with it being possible to go either way. Sens won't make the playoffs due to the Metro being strong while the Pacific is a joke

Coyotes vs Sabres --> The only winner here is who finishes last, the two worse teams in the NHL

The Leafs are above the Wild for sure, but not expecting them to be much better than the Blues or Stars. All three teams should be in the top 10 in the league but not top 5 this season
 
zeke said:
its obvious how it will play out.

i'm amazed you typed seguin into that comp with a straight face.
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Seguin's obviously isn't as good as our top end, but he is the best offensive forward on the Stars when healthy. He's a JT level player

Defensively their top 7D looks better than ours with Heiskanen, Klingberg, Suter, Lundell, Sekera, Harley, Hanipakka

Leafs beat them top end at offense, but the Stars are better on the backend have a pretty similar but deeper goaltending situation (Oettinger, Khudobin, Holtby, and potentially Bishop though him coming back would require a trade)

Offensively, if the stars find Jason Robertson and Hintz taking another step or maintaining their production level they have a good enough top 6 to do damage and win games.

Seguin, Radulov, Pavelski, Hintz, Robertson, Benn, Faksa, Guriyanov, Kirvanta is a pretty good top 9. Leafs still beat them, but it's good enough with their advantage on defense and slightly more reliable goaltending that they should be right their with the leafs in the regular season, both being low 100 point teams
 
hamzarocks said:
Seguin's obviously isn't as good as our top end, but he is the best offensive forward on the Stars when healthy. He's a JT level player

Defensively their top 7D looks better than ours with Heiskanen, Klingberg, Suter, Lundell, Sekera, Harley, Hanipakka

Leafs beat them top end at offense, but the Stars are better on the backend have a pretty similar but deeper goaltending situation (Oettinger, Khudobin, Holtby, and potentially Bishop though him coming back would require a trade)

Offensively, if the stars find Jason Robertson and Hintz taking another step or maintaining their production level they have a good enough top 6 to do damage and win games.

Seguin, Radulov, Pavelski, Hintz, Robertson, Benn, Faksa, Guriyanov, Kirvanta is a pretty good top 9. Leafs still beat them, but it's good enough with their advantage on defense and slightly more reliable goaltending that they should be right their with the leafs in the regular season, both being low 100 point teams
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The two teams look maybe similar on defense (tho Muzz is the best D on either team) and in net, but Toronto wipes them offensively.
 
zeke said:
The two teams look pretty similar on defense and in net, but Toronto wipes them offensively.
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Heiskanen, Klingberg, Lindell, Suter is easily better than our top-4. Doesn't look very similar to me.

Offensively though, yeah, Leafs are way above the Stars.
 
zeke said:
The two teams look pretty similar on defense and in net, but Toronto wipes them offensively.
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Matthews, Marner >> Seguin, Pavelski

JT, Nylander > Hintz, Robertson (though this one could change this year if both of these guys are the real deal)

Benn, Guriyanov, Radulov, > Bunting, Ritchie, Kase

Faksa, Kirivanta, dellandra ~= kampf, kerfoot, mikheyev

Offensively at forwards were ahead for sure, but mostly due to top 2. Otherwise it's pretty close to a wash. Defensively and goaltending I'd have the stars ahead by a bit.
 
Actually I take that back - Muzz/Rielly/Brodie is flat out better than Heiskanen/Klingberg/Lindell.

Then you could give a 37yr old Suter the edge over Holl I guess.

but then Dermott/Sandin/Liljegren is hugely more talented than Sekera/Hakanpaa/Hanley who are barely NHLers at this point.
 
IPS said:
Heiskanen, Klingberg, Lindell, Suter is easily better than our top-4. Doesn't look very similar to me.

Offensively though, yeah, Leafs are way above the Stars.
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Muzzin > Heiskanen
Rielly > Klingberg
Brodie < Lindell
Holl < Suter

and then the leafs actually have talented players on their bottom pair, not borderline retreads like the Stars.
 
zeke said:
The two teams look maybe similar on defense (tho Muzz is the best D on either team) and in net, but Toronto wipes them offensively.
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Heiskanen is better defender than Muzzin, will be tremendous in this league for years. His skating and hockey iq in both ends really stands out. Muzzin can't match him, since Heiskanen is top10 defender in the NHL.
 
zeke said:
Actually I take that back - Muzz/Rielly/Brodie is flat out better than Heiskanen/Klingberg/Lindell.

Then you could give a 37yr old Suter the edge over Holl I guess.

but then Dermott/Sandin/Liljegren is hugely more talented than Sekera/Hakanpaa/Hanley who are barely NHLers at this point.
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37 year old Suter was probably better than Rielly last year.
 
zeke said:
Muzzin > Heiskanen
Rielly > Klingberg
Brodie < Lindell
Holl < Suter

and then the leafs actually have talented players on their bottom pair, not borderline retreads like the Stars.
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Holy crap you love shitting on other team's players. It's ok dude Toronto has enough talent.
 
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zeke said:
from where i sit you guys are shitting on toronto's talent.
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No seriously, what do you have against Dallas and why aren't they even worthy of mentioning in the same breath as Toronto?
Their team went to the cup finals in 2020 and gave the cup-winning Blues their hardest series (game 7 OT) the year before. They had a down year last year and missed the playoffs - shit happens. Their core group is quite good and has accomplished a hell of a lot more than the Leafs core group has.
 
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let's try one of the stats websites to get a ballpark estimate.

i have evolving-hockey handy.

Muzzin 95 --- Heiskanen 85
Brodie 87 ---- Suter 76
Rielly 83 ----- Klingberg 72
Holl 57 ------- Lindell 67
Dermott 52 -- Sekera 43
Sandin n/a -- Hakanpaa 14
Liljegren n/a -- Hanley n/a


just a ballpark.
 
zeke said:
from where i sit you guys are shitting on toronto's talent.
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Not downplaying Torontos team or talent

Both the Stars and Leafs should be in the 5th to 10th best range in the league with other competition being pens, isles, Panthers,Blues and Bruins for the remaing slots

The top 4 for me will be in any order

Tampa
Colorado
Carolina
Vegas (ease of division will help here)
 
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IPS said:
You absolutely 100% said that Rielly is a 3rd pairing D. Deny it all you want.

You also called the signing of TJ Brodie stupid because he's left handed when in reality you had no clue he played almost his entire career on the right side.
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Wrong on both accounts

Brodie is a bad fit on the right side. It takes longer to play the puck properly. That puts the team at a disadvantage. It's just a preference of having LHD and RHD on each pair. We all know Babcok believes in that, I know Trotz prefers it. It's not a wild concept. Most people who have played hockey understand that someone on their weak side is at a disadvantage. Why would you want to start at a disadvantage? I think he was okay in his role, but I still think a traditional RHD is the better fit.
 
The Leafs run the top 4 pretty hard with big minutes and shelter their bottom pairing more than most teams. Who were the top comparables to the Leafs top 4?

5v5 TOI ranking among big minute D pairings (out of 21 parings who played 600+ 5v5 minutes):

1. Oleksiak/Heiskanen
2. Rielly/Brodie
3. Doughty/Anderson
4. Forbort/Pionk
5. Burns/Ferraro
6. Pelech/Pulock
7. Muzzin/Holl
8. Hamilton/Slavin
9. Chabot/Zaitsev
10. Goligoski/Chychrun

5v5 xGF% ranking among big minute D pairings (out of 21 parings who played 600+ 5v5 minutes):

1. Pelech/Pulock
2. Tanev/Hanifin
3. Fox/Lindgren
4. Hamilton/Slavin
5. Skjei/Pesce
6. Muzzin/Holl
7. Rielly/Brodie
8. Suter/Spurgeon
9. Oleksiak/Heiskanen
10. Petry/Edmundson

5v5 Goal differential (out of 21 parings who played 600+ 5v5 minutes)::

1. Fox/Lindgren
2. Hamilton/Slavin
3. Petry/Edmundson
4. Rielly/Brodie
5. Pelech/Pulock
6. Letang/Domoulin
7. Barrie/Nurse
8. Muzzin/Holl
9. Skjei/Pesce
10. Tanev/Hanifin


Both pairings did a great job last season.
 
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The CyNick said:
Wrong on both accounts

Brodie is a bad fit on the right side. It takes longer to play the puck properly. That puts the team at a disadvantage. It's just a preference of having LHD and RHD on each pair. We all know Babcok believes in that, I know Trotz prefers it. It's not a wild concept. Most people who have played hockey understand that someone on their weak side is at a disadvantage. Why would you want to start at a disadvantage? I think he was okay in his role, but I still think a traditional RHD is the better fit.
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Chicago won 3 cups with their shutdown pairing consisting of 2 LHD (Hjalmarrson and Oduya). Pronger-Nieds was one of the best pairings in history and it consisted of 2 LHD.
Having 2 left handed D on a pairing is quite common.

It is so remarkable how little hockey knowledge you have with 11K posts on here.
 
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Zybalto said:
Points % over the last 3 years:

1. Colorado: .635
2. Toronto: .620

3. Winnipeg: .579
4. Minnesota: .568
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As someone whose became somewhat of a casual fan of the Wild (due to geography) I find this discussion about how apparently they're a tough playoff team to be pretty amusing.

They've been the textbook case of mediocrity for the past decade and their star forwards got easily shut down in the Vegas series.
 
The CyNick said:
Wrong on both accounts

Brodie is a bad fit on the right side. It takes longer to play the puck properly. That puts the team at a disadvantage. It's just a preference of having LHD and RHD on each pair. We all know Babcok believes in that, I know Trotz prefers it. It's not a wild concept. Most people who have played hockey understand that someone on their weak side is at a disadvantage. Why would you want to start at a disadvantage? I think he was okay in his role, but I still think a traditional RHD is the better fit.
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Someone who plays hockey (TJ Brodie) has been open about believing he plays stronger when on the right side.

I'd imagine most professional hockey minds would take into account a veterans preference rather than following arbitrary rules.

The eyetest certainly confirmed last season he did a great job on that side.
 
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