Sheldon Keefe Discussion

[The Podium]

If Dubas trades Sandin for one of those types it will be a f***ing joke. Show me the last time a 3rd or 4th line got a prospect that good?

The problem isn’t that we aren’t making the right call by not playing him, the problem is he’s sitting around getting 0 reps.

Did all those prospects the Wings had sit in the press box for months at a time?

To be fair, Holl went a full year playing a handful of games and recovered well.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

To be fair, Holl went a full year playing a handful of games and recovered well.

Yea it happens all the time. Players get back into shape after injury and don't forget how to play hockey. At least in this case Sandin can work on his strength if he knows he's not getting into games. If that's his biggest issue then it makes sense that he's not getting into games. Players don't gain strength during an NHL season, and if Sandin didn't do enough to get stronger in the extended off season, that's on him.

 

[biotk]

Tampa traded a 1st + 2nd + 3 prospects for McDonagh and their recent 3rd overall pick for Sergachev

Montreal traded a 2nd + 4th for Petry

St. Louis traded Bokk and Edmundson for Faulk

Colorado traded Turris for Girard, 2x2nds for Toews

I can keep going but you get the idea

All meaningless as usual from you. Toronto traded for Muzzin and Barrie because everyone knew the team's defense was a disaster and needed to be fixed - which is, again, why they have needed to bring in 5 Euro free agents in 5 years, and why they need to sign LHD to play on the right side like Hainsey and Brodie, while pretending that they are going to develop D of their own to play on their offside.

Trading for young D like Sergachev and Girard and then actually doing a good job developing them (as their previous teams were not) is the exact opposite. St Louis is also not a good developing team at this time which is why they are trying to trade Dunn who have developed in the exact same poor - years as a extremely sheltered third pairing D so doesn't progress - method as the Leafs have done with Dermott over the last 3 years. Tampa hasn't successfully drafted and developed a D since Hedman and Gudas over a decade ago, but instead have traded away those prospects and acquired some young D who were a better fit for what their team needed. And Montreal has not been good at developing D for years, but hopefully they have turned a corner with Romanov. And Not bothering to develop D is fine and a perfectly good strategy that many teams have used very successfully - if you trade away your D prospects for other assets - which is exactly what I have advocated Toronto do. Only in Toronto does the fanbase pretend that the team is great at developing D when they are clearly terrible.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

All meaningless as usual from you. Toronto traded for Muzzin and Barrie because everyone knew the team's defense was a disaster and needed to be fixed - which is, again, why they have needed to bring in 5 Euro free agents in 5 years, and why they need to sign LHD to play on the right side like Hainsey and Brodie, while pretending that they are going to develop D of their own to play on their offside.

Trading for young D like Sergachev and Girard and then actually doing a good job developing them (as their previous teams were not) is the exact opposite. St Louis is also not a good developing team at this time which is why they are trying to trade Dunn who have developed in the exact same poor - years as a extremely sheltered third pairing D so doesn't progress - method as the Leafs have done with Dermott over the last 3 years. Tampa hasn't successfully drafted and developed a D since Hedman and Gudas over a decade ago, but instead have traded away those prospects and acquired some young D who were a better fit for what their team needed. And Montreal has not been good at developing D for years, but hopefully they have turned a corner with Romanov. And Not bothering to develop D is fine and a perfectly good strategy that many teams have used very successfully - if you trade away your D prospects for other assets - which is exactly what I have advocated Toronto do. Only in Toronto does the fanbase pretend that the team is great at developing D when they are clearly terrible.

We have sucked at it since Horton ... 50+ years of poor D development ... that is not all on Dubie; it is an org problem ... what takes 50 years to screw up does not right itself in 3 years ... i listed in a post past at least 25 major screw ups at development over 50 years ... without getting better at developing D and G we will never win a Cup as that's ultimately what it takes ... 5-7 years of development for a young defender before you know what you have ... we are better now because we have a vet d core and promising youngsters in Dermy, Sandin and Lily who need reps with vets ... Lehtonen was another grand waste of time and he is eating development time now ... he is not NHL ready and at 26/27 we are not in a position to work with him ... trade him now for a pick

 

[Brobust]

Tired: "LOL Dubas dumb GM has no capspace to ice any good depth players"

Wired: "LOL Dubas dumb GM has too many good depth players can't play all his prospects"

Good depth players?

 

[biotk]

Sandin and Liljegren are different than most D because they were eligble to play in the AHL while other prospects were still playing in the CHL.

Most top-4 D who were drafted in the first two rounds spend very little time in the AHL (often none at all, sometimes a couple games after their junior season ends, sometimes half a season as they adjust to pro, or a little more if there is a lockout. Generally those who spend more time are large, physical D who are projects).

But it has been fun watching the fanbase switch from their view the Leafs' getting Liljegren and Sandin into the AHL at 18 would dramatically speed up their development - especially as they were already draft steals, and because the Leafs' development team is by far the best in the world, to apparently that time gave them no advantage at all and their timeline should be compared with some 4th and 5th round draft picks who made it.

 

[zeke]

Good depth players?

hells ya.

our #4 dman is a beast playing like a good top pair dman.

i'd put dermott-bogosian up against any bottom pairing in hockey.

and then Lehtonen was the best dman outside the NHL last year.

And Sandin and Liljegren were both great AHL dmen at ages 19/20.

great depth.

 

[The Podium]

This guy is not even worth responding too any more.... Time to add to my ignore list

 

[Brobust]

hells ya.

our #4 dman is a beast playing like a good top pair dman.

i'd put dermott-bogosian up against any bottom pairing in hockey.

and then Lehtonen was the best dman outside the NHL last year.

And Sandin and Liljegren were both great AHL dmen at ages 19/20.

great depth.

I'm fine with the defence, though the Rielly-Brodie doubts are creeping in.

What about forward depth?

 

[zeke]

I'm fine with the defence, though the Rielly-Brodie doubts are creeping in.

What about forward depth?

obviously not as good after trading Kappy and Johnsson - which is why Robertson did get into the lineup pretty quickly up front, unlike sandin and lilly at that back..

not bad depth though, especially once it sorts itself out and the cream rises to the top - (imo this is probably Thornton and Engvall completing the top-9, and probably spezza, simmonds, vesey as the 4th liner but all of robertson, boyd, anderson potentially upgrades there too).

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

I'm fine with the defence, though the Rielly-Brodie doubts are creeping in.

What about forward depth?

Thornton
Spezza
Vesey
Engvall
Barabanov
Brooks
Robertson
Anderson
Boyd
Petan

Seems fine to me Large group of players that can play reliable minutes up and down the lineup.

 

[Dekes For Days]

The same with this belief that having a ton of depth is great that Leafs fans have come to believe is the best thing ever since they currently have it.

Lmao, are you actually arguing that depth is a bad thing now? My god.

Most top-4 D who were drafted in the first two rounds spend very little time in the AHL

Because the majority spend until they are Sandin's age in inferior leagues. You conveniently left out that part.

 

[biotk]

We have sucked at it since Horton ... 50+ years of poor D development ... that is not all on Dubie; it is an org problem

I agree. I have repeatedly said that current problems predate Dubas and are organizational problems. But Dubas hasn't fixed the problems, and when he outlines how players should be developed and the ways in which Toronto will no longer develop prospects because they are harmful - but then does not develop prospects the way he said they should, and does develop prospects the way he says is harmful then he is not part of the solution.

... what takes 50 years to screw up does not right itself in 3 years ... i listed in a post past at least 25 major screw ups at development over 50 years ... without getting better at developing D and G we will never win a Cup as that's ultimately what it takes ... 5-7 years of development for a young defender before you know what you have ... we are better now because we have a vet d core and promising youngsters in Dermy, Sandin and Lily who need reps with vets ... Lehtonen was another grand waste of time and he is eating development time now ... he is not NHL ready and at 26/27 we are not in a position to work with him ... trade him now for a pick

I agree that while it often takes 5+ years to know what you have in a D prospect, it generally takes less time to know that you have screwed it up.

They shouldn't have signed Lehtonen who is just blocking the development of prospects just as Borgman and Rosen blocked Dermott in the fall of 2017 and Oz blocked Holl in 2018/19.

A good developing organization plans out when their promising young D is going to make the lineup. Ensures that until that time they are in a good, stable developing environment. Doesn't bring them up early or use them as injury relief (although they may give them a short trial to see where the player is at or show them what they need to work on, when they do this it is planned out and it is not simply haphazard as to when you may play). Has a proper partner and mentor for them when they make the big team. Tries to ensure they are protected from abuse. Challenges them up the lineup during low stakes situations. Ensures that they make room for the player to enter the top-4 if they look like they that trajectory instead of having them wait for years.

It is not simple and easy, which is why not many teams are good at it, or good at it all the time. The Leafs could decide that proper development is a priority for Dermott, Sandin and Liljegren from now on, but that won't erase the developmental mistakes they have made with each already and so far they show indication that they are making their development a priority.

 

[Brobust]

Thornton
Spezza
Vesey
Engvall
Barabanov
Brooks
Robertson
Anderson
Boyd
Petan

Seems fine to me Large group of players that can play reliable minutes up and down the lineup.

A bunch of those guys haven't played well and the rest haven't even able to get into the lineup.

Just listing out a bunch of names doesn't mean there's depth.

 

[zeke]

A bunch of those guys haven't played well and the rest haven't even able to get into the lineup.

Just listing out a bunch of names doesn't mean there's depth.

Don't get the criticism regarding forward depth - Robertson got in the lineup quickly this year.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

I agree. I have repeatedly said that current problems predate Dubas and are organizational problems. But Dubas hasn't fixed the problems, and when he outlines how players should be developed and the ways in which Toronto will no longer develop prospects because they are harmful - but then does not develop prospects the way he said they should, and does develop prospects the way he says is harmful then he is not part of the solution.



I agree that while it often takes 5+ years to know what you have in a D prospect, it generally takes less time to know that you have screwed it up.

They shouldn't have signed Lehtonen who is just blocking the development of prospects just as Borgman and Rosen blocked Dermott in the fall of 2017 and Oz blocked Holl in 2018/19.

A good developing organization plans out when their promising young D is going to make the lineup. Ensures that until that time they are in a good, stable developing environment. Doesn't bring them up early or use them as injury relief. Has a proper partner and mentor for them when they make the big team. Tries to ensure they are protected from abuse. Challenges them up the lineup during low stakes situations. Ensures that they make room for the player to enter the top-4 if they look like they that trajectory instead of having them wait for years.

It is not simple and easy, which is why not many teams are good at it, or good at it all the time. The Leafs could decide that proper development is a priority for Dermott, Sandin and Liljegren from now on, but that won't erase the developmental mistakes they have made with each already and so far they show indication that they are making their development a priority.

Here here ... my hope is that we can develop defenders properly because i think it is only way to win da big prize in da end ... i am still high on all 3 of our kids and they each have da fight in them to make it ... but our leaders need to utilize them correctly before we burn them up which is our history ... at some point we have to start making a focus on defense ... but people/fans are in love with forwards who can make it much much faster than D and G's

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

Jets fans said all the same things about Niku 4 years ago.

Outside of D almost always needing to have a base level of offensive productivity in the AHL to earn a promotion to the NHL, production in that league is almost completely irrelevant - because good D are generally not there for long (unless there is a lockout or something) and deployment is a major factor in point production in the AHL. Duncan Keith was less productive in the AHL than younger D teammates Wisniewski and Babchuk in 2004/05. The next year he was Chicago's #1 D and they were definitely not.

Keith was in his 3rd year post draft when he made the NHL. Liljegren is in his 4th year and Sandin his 3rd. Their 3rd-4th year and 2nd-3rd year were interrupted by a pandemic (you know...like you pointed out a lockout or something). Duncan is also a Norris guy. Using him as an example that they aren't developing properly isn't a great argument. It's like the guy using the clip of McDavid's end to end goal the other day to refute that Holl isn't our most underrated player.

 

[biotk]

Here here ... my hope is that we can develop defenders properly because i think it is only way to win da big prize in da end ... i am still high on all 3 of our kids and they each have da fight in them to make it ... but our leaders need to utilize them correctly before we burn them up which is our history ... at some point we have to start making a focus on defense ... but people/fans are in love with forwards who can make it much much faster than D and G's

I agree. I said around a year ago that, based on Matthews' contract and the state of the team they should put together a plan to be peaking as an organization from the spring of 2023 to the spring of 2024. That gives them two playoffs to give their best shot at winning the cup. They could, of course, get lucky and go on a long run, and perhaps even win it all before that or after that period, and learning from some playoff success between the 2020, 2021 and 2022 playoffs would be essential, but the plan would be to ensure that everything is in place for those two runs.

So every player and contract would be looked at in terms of what value they are mostly to bring for those two runs and how the team would fit together for them. Which also doesn't mean that there would no place players like Bogo, as his mentoring and helping young D into the lineup would be essential for getting the team to where it needs to go.

Instead it feels like the team is just trying to haphazardly throw it together each year, which is opposite of the "trust the process" we used to hear from Dubas (and which had my support).

 

[JT AM da real deal]

I agree. I said around a year ago that, based on Matthews' contract and the state of the team they should put together a plan to be peaking as an organization from the spring of 2023 to the spring of 2024. That gives them two playoffs to give their best shot at winning the cup. They could, of course, get lucky and go on a long run, and perhaps even win it all before that or after that period, and learning from some playoff success between the 2020, 2021 and 2022 playoffs would be essential, but the plan would be to ensure that everything is in place for those two runs.

So every player and contract would be looked at in terms of what value they are mostly to bring for those two runs and how the team would fit together for them. Which also doesn't mean that there would no place players like Bogo, as his mentoring and helping young D into the lineup would be essential for getting the team to where it needs to go.

Instead it feels like the team is just trying to haphazardly throw it together each year, which is opposite of the "trust the process" we used to hear from Dubas (and which had my support).

Dubie is still a kid and he is learning on da fly ... but he is moving things in right direction ... Shanny decided to put a kid in charge so it is truly on him

 

[Martin Skoula]

I agree. I said around a year ago that, based on Matthews' contract and the state of the team they should put together a plan to be peaking as an organization from the spring of 2023 to the spring of 2024. That gives them two playoffs to give their best shot at winning the cup. They could, of course, get lucky and go on a long run, and perhaps even win it all before that or after that period, and learning from some playoff success between the 2020, 2021 and 2022 playoffs would be essential, but the plan would be to ensure that everything is in place for those two runs.

So every player and contract would be looked at in terms of what value they are mostly to bring for those two runs and how the team would fit together for them. Which also doesn't mean that there would no place players like Bogo, as his mentoring and helping young D into the lineup would be essential for getting the team to where it needs to go.

Instead it feels like the team is just trying to haphazardly throw it together each year, which is opposite of the "trust the process" we used to hear from Dubas (and which had my support).

Yeah I'm starting to get flashbacks of Babcock talking about playing a possession game in the 2015 offseason and reverting to Carlyle hockey for 3 years instead. It would be a shame if media pressure and ownership meddling ruined the team yet again.

 

[BlueForever75]

I dont get the criticisms period. We are speaking of this team as if they are battling for a playoff position. I dont get this at all.

They were 6th in PP% last season, they are first so far this season.

They were 21st in SH% last season, they are 26th so far this season.

They are better in face-off circle this season then last 52% last season to almost 54% this year.

Goals for they are 9th in the league, goals against they are 15th. Last season they were bottom 5 in goals against all season finished 27th. Their offence could be better (3rd last season) but 9th isnt all that bad.

A lot of these will change over the duration of the season and some may be better or worse. But as of right now you only one pairing on D that is consistent from last season in Muzzin-Holl. They have by far been the best pairing due to familiarity. Brodie-Reilly havent been as bad as Reilly-Ceci, it takes time with no pre-season and they will get better. As for the bottom pairing its been a revolving door with only Bogosian being consistent. He has added a different element to the team and once they find a consistent contributor with him they too will be fine.

The one thing that no one is mentioning is the Andersen is a slow starter every year and gets better as time goes on.

People really need to relax. This team is better positioned this year then any other years the past 3. They will be just fine and everyone needs to lay off.

 

[zeke]

I agree. I said around a year ago that, based on Matthews' contract and the state of the team they should put together a plan to be peaking as an organization from the spring of 2023 to the spring of 2024. That gives them two playoffs to give their best shot at winning the cup. They could, of course, get lucky and go on a long run, and perhaps even win it all before that or after that period, and learning from some playoff success between the 2020, 2021 and 2022 playoffs would be essential, but the plan would be to ensure that everything is in place for those two runs.

So every player and contract would be looked at in terms of what value they are mostly to bring for those two runs and how the team would fit together for them. Which also doesn't mean that there would no place players like Bogo, as his mentoring and helping young D into the lineup would be essential for getting the team to where it needs to go.

Instead it feels like the team is just trying to haphazardly throw it together each year, which is opposite of the "trust the process" we used to hear from Dubas (and which had my support).

This was always the plan will always be the plan - the core is all in place longterm, and the bottom of the roster will be a continual churn of xheap kids coming up along with smart cheap free agent signings - all of whom move on when they get expensive, like kappy and johnsson and eventually kerfoot.

The only wrench thrown in was the flat cap, which forced dubas to move out kappy and or johnsson a little bit earlier than expected, before the next wave of kids was truly banging down the door. Luckily the flat cap also let us get a little bit more quality than expected on the cheapo ufa market too.

But this was always the plan from day 1, and always will be the plan.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

A bunch of those guys haven't played well and the rest haven't even able to get into the lineup.

Just listing out a bunch of names doesn't mean there's depth.

I've listed a bunch of depth players that can take NHL reps just fine. All but Petan have already. I'm not sure what you're expecting for "depth" but all these players have NHL resumes, are absolutely fine to fill in for injury, like I said they can play reliable minutes, many can PK, and some of them even have upside (e.g., Anderson, Robertson).

We have solid forward depth to go along with the excellent top 8/9 that aren't even listed here.

 

[biotk]

Keith was in his 3rd year post draft when he made the NHL. Liljegren is in his 4th year and Sandin his 3rd.

Duncan Keith could have made Chicago out of camp his D+2. They sent him down for development. Because they knew that Keith's ceiling was high they wanted to ensure they didn't screw up his development so, like all good developing teams, they refused to use him as injury replacement (and they used a unusually large number of injury replacement Ds that year). The next year he would have been the NHL if there had been an NHL. He was Chicago's #1 D from his first NHL game.

Chicago was going through a lot of uncertainty at the time, and a whole NHL season was lost. Yet they ensured that Keith's long-term development was always the priority. So the opposite of the Leafs' so far.

It has nothing to do with what age a player starts playing NHL games (although, as I have said, Sandin and Liljegren are not young for players drafted in the first 2 rounds who become top-4 D). It has to do with how the team develops them before they get there (poorly in the case of the Leafs with them) and how the team develops them once they get there (poorly in the case of Dermott - and ridiculous in terms of the games Sandin and Liljegren played)

 

[biotk]

This was always the plan will always be the plan - the core is all in place longterm, and the bottom of the roster will be a continual churn of xheap kids coming up along with smart cheap free agent signings - all of whom move on when they get expensive, like kappy and johnsson and eventually kerfoot.

That's not a plan or a process to win the cup. That is simply reacting moment by moment to the only things available to them when they have 4 players taking up too much of the cap and have failed to develop players who came along after Matthews, Marner and Nylander properly.