Confirmed with Link: Sharks trade 20th pick to Sabres for 27th and D Michael Kesselring (RFA)

[Emperor Joe Thornton]

A musing I thought of that I haven't seen mentioned yet (but probably has been). The pick swap is basically the difference between EDM getting knocked out in the 1st vs making the WCF.

 

[Surfer Dude]

nice piece on Kesselring work ethics to get to NHL as 6th rounder when he was traded to BUF. such a tough road. if only Misskey or Colton Roberts can surprise us too. Kinda similar underdog like Sherwood that Grier likes. really happy to give this kid a chance. great move just for basically a middle 2nd round pick value. If need be, the pick can be packaged with the late 2nd to move up like Grier did for Sam ahead of the draft with Buffalo interestingly. With his shot, he could be a weapon on PP like Raddysh perhaps.

The stats from his UT season are impressive in blurb below.

How Michael Kesselring went from ‘lost soul’ to part of the Sabres’ solution

Kesselring's story is not one of a player who had his path to the NHL clearly laid out for him.

www.nytimes.com

His shot is the second hardest in the league behind Tage Thompson. Adding the nastiness to his game changed who Kesselring is as a player and who he can become.
“It changes his player profile significantly,” Madigan said. “It significantly changed his presence on the ice and the confidence he exudes. He worked at it. Michael was never afraid; he always competed. But now he has an added dimension to his game, which is important.”

Kesselring finished last season sixth among NHL defensemen in primary assists at five-on-five. Utah had 53 percent of the expected goals when he was on the ice at five-on-five. That mark ranked him 30th among defensemen with at least 1,000 minutes played. Utah also had 56 percent of the high-danger chances when Kesselring was on the ice at five-on-five, 10th best in the league. He was the only defenseman among the top 25 in that category who was playing for a non-playoff team

 

[Shark Finn]

A musing I thought of that I haven't seen mentioned yet (but probably has been). The pick swap is basically the difference between EDM getting knocked out in the 1st vs making the WCF.

So.. Thanks Ducks, for this once?

 

[mogambomoroo]

I think someone already made the analysis of this, but Kesselring playing for Warso's Team USA that won World Championship is huge in terms of familiarity with the player, deployment and motivation. I think we'll see the Utah version of Kesselring if he's fully healthy.

 

[matt trick]

Now, mostly sobered up, want to say I really like this move!

Kesselring brings a lot of things. He’s huge, pretty fast, physical, has a canon of a shot, makes a solid first pass, and plays solid defensively. He’s also young and a leader. I think he does everything at an average or above average level, or at least he the year prior to last.

Worst case- provided no injury issues- he doesn’t put it together, and is still a solid third pair RD. Best (reasonable) case he locks down the second pair RD as an even-strength and pk guy who kills plays, can get Mack the puck, and can be a heavy trigger when the puck is in the offensive zone.

In addition to Desharnis, I wanted one of Kesselring or Schneider as our second pair defensive RD. I also didn’t want to give up 20th OA (but didn’t envision a trade down). Ideally our second pair RD would be Cernak, but that was never happening.

Now we need the offensive guy. Carlson (unlikely), Hamilton (probably not), Raddysh (think he resigns), Andersson (terrible post deadline aside), Burns, and Reilly are out there.

At 27, should be able to get a complimentary piece, but not a scorer (Mutryn, Plugachev, Sokolovski, Dagenais, Hakkansson).

Didn’t love Sokolovski at 20, but at 27, I’m game.

Kesselring and Sherwood definitely make this team a bit tougher.

 

[Palaeontologists]

Kesselring at 6'4, Dickinson at 6'3, Wang at 6'4, Sokolovskii at 6'8 and Desharnais at 6'7. Is Grier growing a forest or what.

Edit: forgot about Mukhamadullin at 6'4 and Misskey at 6'4. If they all hit then we have a D consisting of giants 6'3 or taller.

 

[mogambomoroo]

Kesselring at 6'4, Dickinson at 6'3, Wang at 6'4, Sokolovskii at 6'8 and Desharnais at 6'7. Is Grier growing a forest or what.

Edit: forgot about Mukhamadullin at 6'4 and Misskey at 6'4. If they all hit then we have a D consisting of giants 6'3 or taller.

And that's the key!

I've shifted slowly into this type of D being build as the perfect combination for this young core.
Even though some disagree, I think Reid fits this mold with being 6'2.5 puck moving and offensively talented D-man, potentially the PP1 QB. I think he doesn't have to become Makar, Hughes or Werenski, he can become a right handed Shea Theodore (same height too) to justify that pick.

 

[rsteen]

It's a little baffling

Do teams not have more than one RHD?

Yeah, it's not like you'd draft a dman at #2 in the hopes that he turns out to be Kesselring. This trade is irrelevant for that pick.

 

[Palaeontologists]

And that's the key!

I've shifted slowly into this type of D being build as the perfect combination for this young core.
Even though some disagree, I think Reid fits this mold with being 6'2.5 puck moving and offensively talented D-man, potentially the PP1 QB. I think he doesn't have to become Makar, Hughes or Werenski, he can become a right handed Shea Theodore (same height too) to justify that pick.

Would be funnier to have Cagnoni be the PP1 QB amongst all these giants.

 

[67 others]

Something tells me he's probably gonna go the proven vet/stopgap/cheap acquisition but still plenty good route for our 1D (Hamilton) this offseason, which means he'd be leaning on picking Reid with our #2 pick, then try to lure Werenski with big money when he hits UFA and Reid is ready for a full time 1D role 2 years from now.

Imagine a top 4 in 2028 that looks like:

Werenski - Reid
Dickinson - Kesselring

A top pairing with 2 puck rushers may not be ideal, but I appreciate the idea of being stacked on D.

Ideally we would have 3 pairs that can play 20 minutes a night lol

 

[Hodge]

The Athletic's draft pick value chart (which is based on actual historical performance of players picked at each slot) pegs the difference in value between #20 and #27 as the ~75th overall pick, not a mid 2nd rounder like others are saying.

 

[Patty Ice]

It should be noted if the Sharks re-sign Allan that he is waiver eligible now. He has a decent chance to be picked up off of it with his pedigree and a good showing when he came over.

I'm not saying to pencil him in the lineup but he will have every opportunity to make it.

 

[mogambomoroo]

The Athletic's draft pick value chart (which is based on actual historical performance of players picked at each slot) pegs the difference in value between #20 and #27 as the ~75th overall pick, not a mid 2nd rounder like others are saying.

Seeing this MG absolutely won the trade, even Kesselring doesn't become the Utah version of himself. Sharks really need that size on the right side.

 

[Chainshot]

The Athletic's draft pick value chart (which is based on actual historical performance of players picked at each slot) pegs the difference in value between #20 and #27 as the ~75th overall pick, not a mid 2nd rounder like others are saying.

And yet the history of trades in that area tends to be for 2nd round picks. Just look at the Penguins move up from 31 to 24 last year being 59th OA or the Hawks move up from 34 to 29 being 62 and an additional pick. The year prior it was Montreal going from 26 up to 21 with it costing them a 57th and a future 7th. Probably more accurate in how the history of moves made in that range would be a pick in the later third of the 2nd round.

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The reason I stopped back over was that Kesselring had an interesting feud with Dominic James of the Lightning and James gave himself a nasty knee injury trying to half-nelson MK's head into the ice in a game in Tampa. It might add some spice to San Jose's games against Tampa this year.

 

[one2gamble]

Why do we think Spence is an option

 

[Patty Ice]

Why do we think Spence is an option

Sens want to sell high.

 

[Sharksfan66]

The guy finished 14th in Norris voting while playing only 55 games.

I didn't say he sucked. But the idea that he's "one of the absolute best defensemen of the past decade" is laughable IMO.

I don't think you win with a guy like Fox as your #1 unless you have an incredible d core behind him.

 

[sampler]

Seeing this MG absolutely won the trade, even Kesselring doesn't become the Utah version of himself. Sharks really need that size on the right side.

I see this trade as a win-win. For SJ, the upside on Kesselring is pretty high (a mid pair 6'4 RHD is worth alot), while the difference in prospect from 20 to 27 is largely negligible. A big reason its so neglible to us is because on D, the difference between 20 and 27 was much smaller than forward, which is likely why we were less excited. Lin and gustaffsson were both very likely gone by 20, so we were looking at piiparainen, Hakansson, Goljer, Bleyl level guys and we didnt percieve a huge difference or big attraction to any of them at 20. In fact, I expect the pick will likely be moved again to acquire even more NHL D help.

But, for Buffalo, the need for solid prospects, specifically forwards, remains higher. Their D is largely set for the next decade as Power, Dahlin, Byram, and Samuelsson are all 22 to 25 years old. But, to keep those four at big cap $s for the next decade, Buffalor will need a steady supply of ELC forwards. Thus, Buffalo picking at 20, has a much higher chance of nabbing a top 15 forward faller. They have a respectable group of 22-24 year olds (Quinn, Kulich, Benson, Helenius[20], Ostlund)... But they can still use more higher end forwards.

I think Buffalo sees the forwards likely around 20 to be well ahead of 27. Lawrence, Cullen, Belchetz, Klepov, Morozov, Command, Suvanto are all likely gone by 27, but one or more is likely there at 20. I can see the value for buffalo of moving up the 7 slots.

I see this as a win win and an excellent move for Buffalo. They lose a guy they were not going to keep who had all of 3 points in an injury riddled campaign and in exchange they get a much higher quality forward prospect in the draft who can help them build a competitive team around the big 4 on D for the next decade.

 

[sampler]

Sens want to sell high.

Sens have Sanderson, Chabot, Zub, and Yak penciled in above Spence with Kleven rising up too. They also have RD Hensler coming up shortly, and a few other mid tier D prospects. They have picked D with their first pick in each of the last four years.

Spence is due a nice raise in the 4-5M per range for 3-4+ years, so the sens are thinking to extract good value from him. Right now, the sens have zero forwards in the NHL under the age of 24, and very few, if any, prime forward prospects. As such, I imagine they might be looking for a solid F prospects ages 20-22, who are NHL ready (or possibly will be soon). The sharks have many guys who fit that description.

I could imagine something like:
Spence+4th (#110) for Bystedt+2nd (#62).

*Sharks get a potential top 4 offensively skilled RHD, in the right age frame who they can sign at a reasonable cap hit (4-5M) to medium term. Another relatively low risk-high reward move. And, what they lose is nearly valueless to the sharks as Bystedt is totally blcoked by Celebrini- Misa- Wennberg-Ostapchuk at Center for the next 3 years. The Col 2nd is also of little value to the sharks.

*The Sens get an NHL ready 3C with size to replace Giroux and an additional pick in the first two rounds to get another good forward prospect. They lose a player who they see as a #5 or 6 on their depth chart, and in which they have a respectable prospect pool coming up.

p.s.: If the sharks made this deal, I would be dumfounded. Somehow, Grier would have successfully added two mid 20's RHD with top 4 potential while not touching #2 pick and still having an extra pick in the 1st round and not touching a single legit prospect that could help this year or next (as Bystedt is blocked).

 

[SjMilhouse]

Woke up today still feeling like this could be a really great trade assuming Kesselring bounces back and we didn't even have to give up a pick to make it happen. Moving back 7 spots on a pick we got for free is money.

 

[weastern bias]

The Athletic's draft pick value chart (which is based on actual historical performance of players picked at each slot) pegs the difference in value between #20 and #27 as the ~75th overall pick, not a mid 2nd rounder like others are saying.

It's almost like these pick value charts are meaningless

 

[crankshaft mechanic]

Sounds like Kesselring asked for the trade out of Buffalo. Not surprising given his usage.

Despite a lot of "this is great for both sides"-ing yesterday in the media I've felt like this trade pretty clearly favored the Sharks. The fact that Kesselring explicitly wanted out balances that a bit from the Buffalo perspective.

But yeah, damn, found money.

 

[sampler]

Sounds like Kesselring asked for the trade out of Buffalo. Not surprising given his usage.

Despite a lot of "this is great for both sides"-ing yesterday in the media I've felt like this trade pretty clearly favored the Sharks. The fact that Kesselring explicitly wanted out balances that a bit from the Buffalo perspective.

But yeah, damn, found money.

I think buffalo extracted good value too. they took their #7 Dman who had 3 pts and was injured or healthy scratch most the year and improved their draft lot significantly. If you are looking to draft a forward this year, The pool available at 20 will likely be significantly better than 27. If you are looking for a D? likely not so much.

In the tankathon mock draft, picks 18-32 featured just two Dmen (Piip and hakansson, who both could go anywhere between 20 and 40). Maybe Bleyl should be in there too somewhere. All the rest are forwards, but there seems a reasonably clear line between the forwards around #20 and #27.

Both teams did well. that said, it's not a massive deal. If Kesselring hits his cieling, then its a great win as the sharks get a big, RH, middle pair (20 min/nt), 30-40 pt Dman just entering his prime. Thats a valuable piece for sure but not a revolutionary one like a boyle or burns (or EK65) addition.

More to come for sure...

 

[Barrie22]

Somehow some people can still complain about getting a NHL-level top 4 potential RHD for moving down 7 spots in a deep draft.

Should of moved up 7 spots and also added another 1st ontop of it going towards the sharks

 

[Painful Quandary]

Trade seems like a win-win. As a Sharks fan, I like it. We likely get a middle-pair right-shot defenseman with the cost of moving back a little in the draft.

I do acknowledge that if Buffalo is able to use their cap space from this trade to either resign or replace Tuch, that they "win" from their perspective.