Confirmed with Link: Sharks trade 20th pick to Sabres for 27th and D Michael Kesselring (RFA)

[weastern bias]

What do we think a realistic contract looks like here?

I think there's gonna be some sticker shock, especially considering Grier has already shown his hand and invested assets in this acquisition

I think it's something like $6Mx6, a pricier version of the Sherwood extention for a younger player at a more premium position

 

[ThorNton Apologist]

What do we think a realistic contract looks like here?

I think there's gonna be some sticker shock, especially considering Grier has already shown his hand and invested assets in this acquisition

I think it's something like $6Mx6, a pricier version of the Sherwood extention for a younger player at a more premium position

Considering the injury plagued season he just had. I think a bridge deal. Something like $4Mx2

 

[landshark]

I'm sorta pissed Yzerman didn't throw in a 2nd.

 

[vortexx]

What do we think a realistic contract looks like here?

I think there's gonna be some sticker shock, especially considering Grier has already shown his hand and invested assets in this acquisition

I think it's something like $6Mx6, a pricier version of the Sherwood extention for a younger player at a more premium position

I agree that we could definitely see something like a 4-6 year extension here and I honestly prefer it. Kesselring probably values term here after an injury riddled season and you have to assume Grier thinks he is a good bet to bounceback to his form in Utah. You will never get a chance to lockup a top 4 RHD with this profile for this cheap during Celebrini's prime. I think it is worth the risk and you take the swing for a homerun and go for mid-long term extension.

 

[Star Platinum]

I agree that we could definitely see something like a 4-6 year extension here and I honestly prefer it. Kesselring probably values term here after an injury riddled seasonu and you have to assume Grier thinks he is a good bet to bounceback to his form in Utah. You will never get a chance to lockup a top 4 RHD with this profile for this cheap during Celebrini's prime. I think it is worth the risk and you take the swing for a homerun and go for mid-long term extension.

Guys coming off injury generally want a shorter deal and bet on themselves to have a great bounceback year that they cash in on.

 

[weastern bias]

Considering the injury plagued season he just had. I think a bridge deal. Something like $4Mx2

It's not a "bridge" when it takes a player to UFA status

 

[WSS11]

What do we think a realistic contract looks like here?

I think there's gonna be some sticker shock, especially considering Grier has already shown his hand and invested assets in this acquisition

I think it's something like $6Mx6, a pricier version of the Sherwood extention for a younger player at a more premium position

Coming off an injury plagued, down year? Something like 4x 4.5M

 

[67 others]

Hamilton seems highly unlikely to me. I dont think grier wants a guy who doesnt want to come (although goodrow kind fit that mold I suppose).

I expect another mid 20's, low risk high reward target. Spence as mentioned. Grier might try to target Nikishin too though his price would be much steeper. Other names include Korczak, Lundquist...

Frankly, in terms of the U26 RD with offensive upside who aren't established studs, Spence might be the only real guy who can be gotten for relatively low prices.

Grier's other choice is to still go after a guy like Raddysh and lock in $ and term. Just seems like Grier is just so hesitant to do that.

Nikishin?? Would i love that? Yes. The canes would have to be morons to trade him though and the price would be through the roof

 

[Patty Ice]

Coming off an injury plagued, down year? Something like 4x 4.5M

That is what I'm thinking 4 years and between $4-4.5 million.

 

[Shark Finn]

2006 called and wanted its video editing ways back

 

[matt trick]

That is what I'm thinking 4 years and between $4-4.5 million.

I'd prefer to get a 5th year at $5M, but this would be a good deal. 26-31 years, cheap enough to be a third pair guy starting in year 3 when our cap situation becomes more complicated, but get to enjoy cheap top 4 depth for 5 years if it works out well.

Gives us sufficient time to develop a pair of top 4 RD (regardless of what we do a 2).

 

[sampler]

I expect 3 x 3.5M. I dont think grier is going to throw big $ and term at a guy who has such an injury history. Too risky. 2 x 3 would be unsurprising. 4 x 4M is the max I would expect.

Kesselring is entirely unproven, especially in SJ. the 3 year term makes him 29 at expiration and if he proves that he's awesome, Grier can give him the 6 year extension for ages 29-34. But giving him 5 x 5M runs a big risk of having 5M in dead cap just when we need it if his injury lingers.

 

[themelkman]

0.00% chance Rielly or Nurse ends up on the Sharks. I guarantee you Grier isn't even looking at trading for either of those two.

I'm not sure I would say 0% when credible people have said he is looking at them

 

[themelkman]

What do we think a realistic contract looks like here?

I think there's gonna be some sticker shock, especially considering Grier has already shown his hand and invested assets in this acquisition

I think it's something like $6Mx6, a pricier version of the Sherwood extention for a younger player at a more premium position

That seems crazy for a guy who barely played last year. I was thinking a 3x3.5

 

[sampler]

BTW, these Rielly proposals are why the Raddysh deal isn't as bad as it looks. Say, Raddysh plays well in his first three years and puts up #1D type numbers. His trade value at age 32/33 will still be significant, and likely positive. His cap hit will be 5 years x 8.5, which will be the equivalent of 5 years at 7M or so in todays cap in 3 years time. Thats very similar to rielly. Such deals are not that hard to unload. In short, toronto gets a #1 RHD for 3 years at 8.5M and then can trade the remainder of the deal for around free or even positive return.

 

[weastern bias]

That seems crazy for a guy who barely played last year. I was thinking a 3x3.5

He has a certain amount of leverage as an arb eligible RFA just one summer removed from unrestricted status that just had a team invest 1st round draft capital in his acquisition

I don't think Grier jerks him around here, I think he's getting term and in turn the cap hit will be higher than people will be comfortable with given the cap spike

 

[Pinkfloyd]

What do we think a realistic contract looks like here?

I think there's gonna be some sticker shock, especially considering Grier has already shown his hand and invested assets in this acquisition

I think it's something like $6Mx6, a pricier version of the Sherwood extention for a younger player at a more premium position

I think it'll be a 3x4 or thereabouts. I'd be surprised if they do a lengthier term than four but it's possible.

 

[hotcabbagesoup]

2006 called and wanted its video editing ways back

How in the world do you edit a video like that these days. It's like someone duplicated the video chunks and said, I'm going to randomly move that piece and then that piece here.

 

[Surfer Dude]

BTW, these Rielly proposals are why the Raddysh deal isn't as bad as it looks. Say, Raddysh plays well in his first three years and puts up #1D type numbers. His trade value at age 32/33 will still be significant, and likely positive. His cap hit will be 5 years x 8.5, which will be the equivalent of 5 years at 7M or so in todays cap in 3 years time. Thats very similar to rielly. Such deals are not that hard to unload. In short, toronto gets a #1 RHD for 3 years at 8.5M and then can trade the remainder of the deal for around free or even positive return.

it's a fair deal but still an overpay to sign the top D in in UFA in terms.
he played with Moser who was the real defensive driver while getting the PP1. There's no Moser in TOR to pair with him now tho.

rielly is washed if you guys saw him play at all instead of stats. the defense was awful and his offense doesn't make up for it. used to be great skater but he's lost his step like Leddy and he can look good in small spots but his defense is gone. for some guys that want defense from defenseman instead of offenseman, rielly is the epitome of offenseman that hurts you in your own zone and isn't playoffs type. even his offense is down on PP in Worlds he couldn't even keep pucks in with his skating any more. Toronto fans will say it's bec of lower usage and his numbers can go up but there's a reason Berube used him less in the first place which was defense.

 

[anthonyyy]

it's a fair deal but still an overpay to sign the top D in in UFA in terms.
he played with Moser who was the real defensive driver while getting the PP1. There's no Moser in TOR to pair with him now tho.

rielly is washed if you guys saw him play at all instead of stats. the defense was awful and his offense doesn't make up for it. used to be great skater but he's lost his step like Leddy and he can look good in small spots but his defense is gone. for some guys that want defense from defenseman instead of offenseman, rielly is the epitome of offenseman that hurts you in your own zone and isn't playoffs type. even his offense is down on PP in Worlds he couldn't even keep pucks in with his skating any more. Toronto fans will say it's bec of lower usage and his numbers can go up but there's a reason Berube used him less in the first place which was defense.

I was always curious about Rielly so I watched some Leafs games and was always left thinking "what is this guy supposed to be good at?"

 

[Hodge]

it's a fair deal but still an overpay to sign the top D in in UFA in terms.
he played with Moser who was the real defensive driver while getting the PP1. There's no Moser in TOR to pair with him now tho.

rielly is washed if you guys saw him play at all instead of stats. the defense was awful and his offense doesn't make up for it. used to be great skater but he's lost his step like Leddy and he can look good in small spots but his defense is gone. for some guys that want defense from defenseman instead of offenseman, rielly is the epitome of offenseman that hurts you in your own zone and isn't playoffs type. even his offense is down on PP in Worlds he couldn't even keep pucks in with his skating any more. Toronto fans will say it's bec of lower usage and his numbers can go up but there's a reason Berube used him less in the first place which was defense.

According to the NHL Edge data Rielly hasn't lost a step at all

 

[SanJoseRedditor]

BTW, these Rielly proposals are why the Raddysh deal isn't as bad as it looks. Say, Raddysh plays well in his first three years and puts up #1D type numbers. His trade value at age 32/33 will still be significant, and likely positive. His cap hit will be 5 years x 8.5, which will be the equivalent of 5 years at 7M or so in todays cap in 3 years time. Thats very similar to rielly. Such deals are not that hard to unload. In short, toronto gets a #1 RHD for 3 years at 8.5M and then can trade the remainder of the deal for around free or even positive return.

No one knows how Raddysh will play in 2-3 years. He can either get better than he was last year, or he can revert to the player that he was in his previous 4 years. If it's the latter, that is going to be a tough contract to move because it's an 8 year contract. It could be very Trent Frederic like.

 

[Surfer Dude]

According to the NHL Edge data Rielly hasn't lost a step at all

View attachment 1256355

That's good you can pull stats, but you're just reinforcing he's lost a step compared to a few years ago. if you watch Leafs games before to this year, you'd see it. I used to think he got too much blame by fans when a few years ago his skating was elite but he's slower now indeed.
2023-24

• Max Skating Speed • 85th percentile
• 22+ MPH Bursts • 91st percentile
• 20-22 MPH Bursts • 97th percentile
• 18-20 MPH Bursts • 93rd percentile

The biggest problem is his defense was terrible but not just that. It gets worst in the stats when his team wins without him. According to Stat Muse the Leafs were 24-5-1 without Morgan Rielly in the lineup since 2022-23. There are games when he was out that the team looked better this year also.


The excuse you might say is that his skating is still better than most, but this decline matters more for him and it's unlikely to get better. You can just see he plays the same style as before but he can't separate like he used to, and it's noticeable. When you see him at Worlds, he looked so slow when skating on big ice should be his big asset. You know which D looked faster and better on D? Bouchard despite his perceived weakness... His shot is also weak as a PP guy, you want to play him for his passes and let him shoot from the point. He's not really the PP guy ppl made him to be. I personally don't care about shot from point as long as it gets thru but it's that much of a muffin and defenders would love to block his shots and go the other way with it.

I know you love offenseman, but he's an offenseman who can't really offense any more. The focus should be defensemen who can defend for the Sharks and help team win. The other excuse is he's cheap? $7.5M isn't cheap, that's like par for a bottom 4D even with more cap space in the future. but he's likely going to drop off sooner than later at 32. Leddy started dropping off hard around 32/33 and he was also a great skater. Most ppl who actually watches him sees he's a liability on defense. What's the obsession with him? The Leafs want to move on from him badly for reasons... This article I linked below gives a balanced take. The author also suggested he could be a fit for emerging team like the Sharks while saying he's been a liability for the Leafs team as a subpar #4 today... with these awful advanced stats. My impression is they're trying to offload him before he falls off completely, only a sucker would fall for it.

Morgan Rielly’s precipitous decline was emblematic of the Maple Leafs’ overall defensive woes

<p>Morgan Rielly is the longest-tenured member of the Toronto Maple Leafs and has been a great ambassador for the franchise during his career. Rielly is an active leader in the locker room and the larger civic community. Rielly was the leader of Toronto’s blue line for the better part of a...

theleafsnation.com

Statistical profile​

Category	Production	NHL rank
Expected goals percentage	49.24%	355th
Goal differential	-11	429th
Corsi	48.25%	T-408th
Expected goals for per 60	2.76	T-224th
Expected goals against per 60	2.85	T-163

 

[VeniVidiVlasic]

The more I stare at the 8x8, the more I appreciate the roll of the dice GMMG did. The odds of Toronto getting burned here is really high. Just because he’s RHD in a sparse year with an increasing cap and “thats the market” doesn’t make this 8 year a smart decision. This makes trading for Nurse “not too crazy”.

 

[timorous me]

The more I stare at the 8x8, the more I appreciate the roll of the dice GMMG did. The odds of Toronto getting burned here is really high. Just because he’s RHD in a sparse year with an increasing cap and “thats the market” doesn’t make this 8 year a smart decision. This makes trading for Nurse “not too crazy”.

It also doesn't align particularly well with the Sharks' timeline. We have enough young players who are going to need a few years to marinate until they're getting closer to their peaks, and while I'm sure Raddysh would help in the meantime, he's not going to suddenly elevate this team into a Stanley Cup contender.

And then by the time we hope they will be starting to knock on that door in like three or four years, he'll be getting toward his mid-30s and the odds of him still being a useful defender, let alone a top-pairing guy like he's being treated with this deal, start to dwindle.

It's not like he really fits with Toronto and their "timeline," whatever that might be—I suppose it's more like they're just always feeling a need to make moves like this, whether they make sense or not, and I like the idea of the Sharks not being that kind of club.