Prospect Info: Sharks Prospect Info & Discussion Megathread XXI: "New, improved, and wayyyy too much info" Edition

[fasterthanlight]

Do they publish evaluation metrics for their models? It seems like they vastly over-estimate both nhler and star probabilities

 

[Crewouse]

Do they publish evaluation metrics for their models? It seems like they vastly over-estimate both nhler and star probabilities

Me make big points, me nhl probably

 

[hohosaregood]

isn't bader's model just super simple and based on historical PPG standardized to NHLe?

 

[Juxtaposer]

isn't bader's model just super simple and based on historical PPG standardized to NHLe?

Yup, it's age, league, and points. So a guy projecting well on the model just means he's scoring points well in his league relative to other guys his age, NHLe adjusted.

Short hand for points good. Which overall, isn't totally incorrect.

There is value in a model like that when it identifies late round candidates that need to be scouted more. You just can't take it at face value.

 

[gaucholoco3]

But since 2019...Fox, Hughes, and Makar have unquestionably elite. It may be a sign of changing times...

Both Makar and Fox are listed as 2 inches taller which believe or not does make a big difference. Cagnoni might as well be Pavelski when compared to Hughes and Makar’s skating.

Cagnoni is nothing like any of those 3.

 

[Hodge]

Both Makar and Fox are listed as 2 inches taller which believe or not does make a big difference. Cagnoni might as well be Pavelski when compared to Hughes and Makar’s skating.

Cagnoni is nothing like any of those 3.

Those are also the only 3 examples anyone can name and frankly Fox and Hughes are overrated losers. The only other sub-6ft defenseman in the league are third pairing offensemen like Girard, Hutson and Gostisbehere.

If anything the league is a far more inhospitable place for smurf defensemen than it was 10 or 20 years ago because the skating advantages smaller defensemen used to have are now irrelevant. The NHL is full of huge defensemen who can also skate on par with or better than the smurfs.

 

[fasterthanlight]

Yup, it's age, league, and points. So a guy projecting well on the model just means he's scoring points well in his league relative to other guys his age, NHLe adjusted.

Short hand for points good. Which overall, isn't totally incorrect.

There is value in a model like that when it identifies late round candidates that need to be scouted more. You just can't take it at face value.

It seems like the model would be pretty easy to evaluate. E.g., fit the parameters on 2012-2018, report accuracy on 2019 players (repeat for all years). But I am not sure they do that, it seems mostly vibe-based

 

[Patty Ice]

third pairing offensemen like Girard, Hutson and Gostisbehere.

I implore you to please go into the Calder thread on the main boards and sow chaos and discord with this statement for the shits and giggles.

I want to see a full-on meltdown of an entire fanbase.

 

[Hodge]

I implore you to please go into the Calder thread on the main boards and sow chaos and discord with this statement for the shits and giggles.

I want to see a full-on meltdown if an entire fanbase.

It's more fun to watch reality clobber their hopes and dreams to death from afar.

They're trying to build a contender around Caufield, Suzuki, Demidov and Hutson - calling these losers the homeless man's version of Matthews, Marner, Nylander and Rielly is being generous to the Habs and the legit version of that core can't win anything either.

 

[gaucholoco3]

Those are also the only 3 examples anyone can name and frankly Fox and Hughes are overrated losers. The only other sub-6ft defenseman in the league are third pairing offensemen like Girard, Hutson and Gostisbehere.

If anything the league is a far more inhospitable place for smurf defensemen than it was 10 or 20 years ago because the skating advantages smaller defensemen used to have are now irrelevant. The NHL is full of huge defensemen who can also skate on par with or better than the smurfs.

Don’t forget the only other relevant D that’s listed at 5’9” Spurgeon, but yes it is very unlikely that Cagnoni will make it. I’m encouraged by what he has done in the AHL but he will not get a call up this season and hopefully the Sharks have enough depth to prevent him from being called up next season too. If he can repeat this season again and be an AHL all-star that actually drives play at 5v5 then I would be ok giving him a shot once all the Thrun, Vlasic, Walman, Ferraro, Liljegren contracts expire.