Do they publish evaluation metrics for their models? It seems like they vastly over-estimate both nhler and star probabilities
Prospect Info: Sharks Prospect Info & Discussion Megathread XXI: "New, improved, and wayyyy too much info" Edition
- Thread starter The Nemesis
- Start date
Do they publish evaluation metrics for their models? It seems like they vastly over-estimate both nhler and star probabilities
Crewouse
Registered User
- Mar 30, 2016
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hohosaregood
Banned
- Sep 1, 2011
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isn't bader's model just super simple and based on historical PPG standardized to NHLe?
Juxtaposer
Outro: Divina Comedia
Yup, it's age, league, and points. So a guy projecting well on the model just means he's scoring points well in his league relative to other guys his age, NHLe adjusted.
Short hand for points good. Which overall, isn't totally incorrect.
There is value in a model like that when it identifies late round candidates that need to be scouted more. You just can't take it at face value.
Both Makar and Fox are listed as 2 inches taller which believe or not does make a big difference. Cagnoni might as well be Pavelski when compared to Hughes and Makar’s skating.
Cagnoni is nothing like any of those 3.
Hodge
Registered User
- Apr 27, 2021
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Those are also the only 3 examples anyone can name and frankly Fox and Hughes are overrated losers. The only other sub-6ft defenseman in the league are third pairing offensemen like Girard, Hutson and Gostisbehere.
If anything the league is a far more inhospitable place for smurf defensemen than it was 10 or 20 years ago because the skating advantages smaller defensemen used to have are now irrelevant. The NHL is full of huge defensemen who can also skate on par with or better than the smurfs.
It seems like the model would be pretty easy to evaluate. E.g., fit the parameters on 2012-2018, report accuracy on 2019 players (repeat for all years). But I am not sure they do that, it seems mostly vibe-based
Patty Ice
Mighty Luca
I implore you to please go into the Calder thread on the main boards and sow chaos and discord with this statement for the shits and giggles.
I want to see a full-on meltdown if an entire fanbase.
