Yep, I think there's a big difference between excitement around the team because light at the end of the tunnel has appeared and actual growing pains + development. Getting Schaefer or Martone with a top-3 pick next year and a top-10 pick in 2026 with some good development and additions via trade/FA, maybe you have something cooking in 2027-2028 in terms of playoff contention.
Prospect Info: Sharks Prospect Info & Discussion Megathread XXI: "New, improved, and wayyyy too much info" Edition
- Thread starter The Nemesis
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Munnyro
Registered User
You have to luck into a legit #1 D. You could argue Ducks/Kings/Kraken/Flames/Utah/Jets/Wild/Wings/Sens/Leafs/Panthers/...I don't want to run the gambit but you see the point.
I lean towards overall quality vs top heavy.
I lean towards overall quality vs top heavy.
How many solid NHL prospects do you need to build cup winning team?
I feel like you need 3-4 homegrown top 6 forwards, 2-3 top 4 D. The rest can be acquired by UFA or trade. Personally, if you add in the 2025 crop, I think the sharks already have that in the system.
Smith and celly and almost surefire top 6 guys. could be this year or three years away, but it's very likely. Eklund looks like another top 6 guy within a year or two. Zetterlund is not homegrown but he's another. It also seems highly likely that at least two of the other prospects (musty, haltunnen, bystedt, edstrom, chernyshov, etc) will also end up solid top 6/9 forwards, not to mention at least one or two more in the 2025 draft. In other words, the sharks already have the basis of a cup contending team at forward.
On D, its more murky. Dickinson is a top 10 talent and very likely top 4, maybe top pairing guy. After him, it's much more of a crapshoot, so I kinda feel like this is the one area where they need to acquire a bona fide top pairing D man by trade or UFA.
I understand that few 19 year olds step into the NHL and immediately establish themselves as top 6 forwards. That aforementioned crew of Smith, Musty, Haltunnen, Bystedt, Edstrom, Cardwell, Gushkin, Bordeleau, etc will all be D+3 (or more) season as 20/21 year olds (or older) by the time 2025 rolls around. its not uncommon for 21 year olds to become legit top 6s. its the equivalent of the 2020 and 2021 draft years this past season (see: eklund).
Of course, I suppose only about 11 players from that draft established themselves, and only 5 or so from the 2022 draft year. so maybe 26-27 is a better target as you say.
On D, I am not sure they have the in-house talent just yet to be a contender. Mukh may end up top 4, or may be a bust. Thrun too. Dick is unlikely to be a bust but never a sure bet to be a top pairing. Pohlcamp, LSW, havelid, Thompson, Cagnoni, and others are iffy to be top 4 NHLers. Maybe, but not that likely. This is the one area to go shopping.
Still, I really feel like the sharks have the in-house guys already is the system to be good before 4 years away.
Toffoli was a great start to add vet talent. If GMMG can add him this year, I fail to see why he can add another top 6, 30 goal vet and a couple good D next summer.
You dont think a roster in 2025 of:
Toffoli-Celebrini (2nd year)-Eklund (3rd year
Smith (2nd year)-Musty (rookie)-Marner (11m per)
Wennberg-Zetterlund-Boeser (9M per)
Goodrow-Grundstrom-Dyllandrea
(one of bystedt, haltunnen, Bordy, Gush, Edstrom as the injury/struggler fill in)
Petterson (8M per)-Mukh (2nd year)
Larsson (7M per) - Dickinson (rookie)
Walman - Ferraro
(Thrun/Benning as #7/8)
Goalie add: Shesterkin (not likely), Georgiev, Ullmark, lindgren, or even keeping blackwood or vanicek if they do well.
You dont think that roster has a real shot? It has two rookies and three second year players, and one third year player, but each of those inexperienced guys is paired with a highly proven vet (celly+eklund with toffoli which well see how that goes this year, Smith+musty with marner), and a third line with real pop as Boeser and Zetterlund could each go for 30 Goals easily while being defensively solid with wennberg. Even the fourth line can contribute as grundstrom has scored at a 15g/82games pace the last three seasons in LA, and we know goodrow is useful.
The D is anchored by pettersson (age 29), who is capable for 23+ mins/night of good 2-way play. he had 30 pts for the pens with literally zero PP time. As a number 1 pp guy, he could go for 40-50 easily, he can pair with mukh to help with defense. Larsson is another clear top 4, minute eating two-way anchor D. he'll be 32, so he is a bit on the older side, but in 22-23, he put up 33 pts and a +27 with literally no PP time as well. His offensive production slipped a bit last year, but I could see him being a 40 pt guy on the second PP unit. I like him with Dickinson as he is a steller defensive player. BTW, all four of mukh, larsson, pettersson, and Dickinson are 6'3 or bigger so the Sharks D will be massive, very good at both ends, good skaters, and have offensive pop with a blend of 500+ game vets and younger guys. Walman and ferraro as the 3rd pair means that if mukh or dickinson struggle, they acually have some depth and arent forced to rely on a ohtiuk-type guy (with benning and thrun waiting in the wings as well in case of injury)
Marner, Boeser, Larsson, and Pettersson likely cost you a combine 35M, but the sharks have the space to absorb that next summer and still have space to resign the young guys as cooch and vlasic come off the books along wit hthe salary retention right about the same time as Eklund, smith and celly would need extensions.
Do you think the roster above in 2025-26 is a playoff roster?
Actually maybe I’m way off base as I look at the panthers roster. What a fascinating one. They had just the three impact skaters under 27 (tkachuk 25, Lindell 21, and lousterinen 24). All other main skaters were between 27 and 32 with the top guys (barkov, tkachuk, Reinhardt, and Bennett) being top 6 picks about 8-10 years ago, with barkov, bennnett and Reinhardt all the magical 27 years old.
Not sure I’ve ever seen that kind of consistency.
I suppose that would mean sharks will win the cup in 2033
Not sure I’ve ever seen that kind of consistency.
I suppose that would mean sharks will win the cup in 2033
Creepy:
Ekblad Reinhardt Bennett picks 2014, wins 2024 (apyears later). Barlow picked 2013 (11 years later)
Crosby picked in 2005, wine cups in 2016 and 17. (11, 12 years later)
Stamkos picked 2008. Wins 2020 and 21. (12,13years later)
Ovie: 2004 wins 2018 (14 years later). He was a bit late.
McKinnon picked 2013, won in 2022 (9 years later)
Seems almost like 26- 31 years old is the magic span for a top pick to win it all.
Mcdavid picked 2015, so I guess oilers will win in 2025 or 26ish.
Ekblad Reinhardt Bennett picks 2014, wins 2024 (apyears later). Barlow picked 2013 (11 years later)
Crosby picked in 2005, wine cups in 2016 and 17. (11, 12 years later)
Stamkos picked 2008. Wins 2020 and 21. (12,13years later)
Ovie: 2004 wins 2018 (14 years later). He was a bit late.
McKinnon picked 2013, won in 2022 (9 years later)
Seems almost like 26- 31 years old is the magic span for a top pick to win it all.
Mcdavid picked 2015, so I guess oilers will win in 2025 or 26ish.
- Jul 25, 2007
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The sharks absolutely picked Smith into a bare cupboard. We had one other prospect of note (Eklund) and we were very thin until the 2023/24 drafts AND the Meier/Karlsson/Hertl trades.
The Sharks pool was top 10 before the 2024 draft, but it sure as shit wasn't before the 2023 draft.
I gotta be honest with you man, I love the passion and optimism but these really long posts are getting hard to plow through, and this one ends on a roster proposal that hinges on us signing a bunch of marquee names in free agency, which is just not realistic. Of course if we added a 100 point scorer, a different 30-40 goal scorer, and two bona fide top4 D in one single off-season, AND our young ones develop VERY quickly, we'd have a chance at the playoffs, but in what non-video-game world should we even consider this realistic? Nashville just added less, and it was insane, and yet people still doubt whether they're a contender.
Moreover we have a great prospect pool but many of them will not convert or will peak at the wrong time, and prospects take a very long time to come up to speed unless they are legendary... And those guys who made the playoffs in their first year were not joining squads that were as bad and bare bones as the Sharks were 2022-24. The Hawks added Toews and Kane to a team with 7 years of solid drafting. The pens were already far better positioned before drafting two hall of famers back to back.
I continue to think our rebuild model and expectations should be more like the Avs or Devils. 7-10 years from drafting your franchise leaders until they are 25-27 and in their prime. Maybe we can flirt with the playoffs by 2026-27 but I still don't think we'll be contenders until 2030. It was a really, really deep rebuild and we're still at the bottom.
Sorry for the long posts and I guess I like living in a fantasy world. Watching the sharks suck sucks.
I think its best to play by ear and so how the year progesses as much depends on the youth development at all levels (NHL, AHL, Jr. Europe, and College). If that goes well enough, I dont think the sharks are pidgeon holed into a 10 year process of bottom feeding and lottery picks.
Historically, many top picks made the PO's in their first 2 years:
1. You mentioned the Avs: they got the PO's in mackinnon's first year (and duchene's).
2. Chicago made the PO's in kane's and toews second year.
3. Devils made the PO's in Heischer's first year.
4. Edmonton made PO's in Mcdavid's second year
5. rangers made POs in Lafreniere's second year.
6. Toronto made it Matthews first year.
7. Florida made it in Ekblad's second year.
While the teams that won a cup after a top pick(s) tends to happen after a decade or so, the list of teams that made the POs within two years of a #1 pick is actually pretty long, and one could argue that more of those teams actually made the PO's than otherwise. Looking back since 2010, only BUF (power and Dahlin), MTL (slafkovsky), and EDM (Hall, RNH, and Yak consecutiely) have failed to make the POs within two years of a #1 pick while NJ, Edm (on thier 4th try), NYR, TOR, and FLA all made it within two years.
Also, whie Buffalo hasnt made it despite their two #1 picks, Beniers as a #2 (after powers) made it with seattle in his second year and Carolina made it with #2 pick Svechnikov's (after dahlin) first year.
My point is that is actually very common for a team picking first to make the PO's within 2 years of that pick. So, while you may be right about truly contending for a cup, I wholly disagree about making a real run for the PO's.
[Stop reading. take a breath. feel free to ignore the rest if the post is too long.... OR.... enjoy the read and come into my "fantasy" world]
If this year goes well (even if "well" still means bottom 5 of the league), I don't full see why it is so crazy to expect GMMG to take a stab at 3 premier UFAs next summer. The got toffoli this year as one of the top UFAs in the market (toffoli was listed as the #10 UFA forward by TSN). As you said, nashville did it, and not sure why you feel it was much less as they nabbed the 3 of the top 4 ranked UFAs including the top forward and top Dman. March is an SC winning 42 goal scorer last year, Stamkos was a multiple SC winning 40 goals scorer last year, and Skjei was a nearly 50 point top pair Dman and #1`ranked UFA Dman.... Thats two 40+ goal scorers and a top pairing Dman. Not far from my target, and the sharks could outbid anyone give all their cap room.
Summer 2025 depends wholly on Season 24-25, and the development/rebuild path the sharks take should follow their own unique path. If Celly, Smith, and Mukh really struggle this year and other prospects do not explode on the scene, that certainly changes the calculus and makes summer 2025 another future asset accumulation summer and nothing more with a PO hpe still a few more years away.
But, if celly and smith are calder candidates (very possible), and mukh looks like a real top 4 dman (very possible, as he has the size and was an AHL star), and eklund and zetterlund continue their progress (big steps forward for each last year which may well continue), and the rest of the prospect pool develops nicely, then even if the sharks finish in the bottom 5, it makes sense to me to begin the push toward relevancy earlier. A good summer 2025, after solid progression in 2024-25, could definitely mean real PO contention. Not necessarily cup contention, but at least competitive hockey and a very real PO chance, and in that case, GMMG would be wise to go shopping rather than sit on ample cap space and deprive the up and coming guys a chance at postseason experience.
BTW, I agree that the sharks pool was damn dry in 2022. But the speed at which it has risen to, IMHO, the best in the NHL is amazing. yes, our team is somewhat bare bones, but Celly was drafted into a top 10 pool with multiple young top 6 forwards already in the NHL (ek and zets) along with a 30+ goal scoring vet in toffoli and the NCAA leading scorer going pro right beside him. It's not like the sharks have celly and nothing else. Barring all the trades and the 2023 draft, I'd agree wholeheartedly, but not anymore and not with the amazing progression of the 2022 and 2023 picks along with the other stellar '24 picks. We wont have a team filled with an army of 4th liners and #7 dmen like last year.
Going into last year, the sharks had literally ZERO established top 6 forwards aside from cooch who didnt play and hertl who battled injuries and struggled a bit. They got an amazing unexpected performance from Granlund and zetterlund, but remember that going into the year, they had nothing. This coming year, we are going into the year with 4 bona fide top 9 forwards (toffoli, eklund, zetterlund, and grandlund) and 2 of the top 5 rookies in the NHL, not to mention a solid 3rd line C and much better depth. 80+ pts is absolutely possible, making 95+ pts and PO's possible for 2025-6.
Lastly, one can argue that last year was a statistical aberration on the bad side. the red wings of 2019 got just 39 pts, down from 74. But the next full season (not covid year), they went back up to 74. Like, sometimes teams have outlier years either good or bad. The sharks over/under entering last year was 65.5, so 47 pts was WAY off statistical expectations. maybe the sharks roster was that bad? But, maybe it was not that bad and the result was more of a statistical outlier with a likely reversion to the mean likely. If Vegas was right, the sharks shoulda had 65pts. Then the possible 25+ pt improvement from roster upgrade would put them on the cusp of PO contention, with 2025-6 as legit possible.
Sampler, all the guys you mentioned making the playoffs early in their career had better blue lines to support them than what we currently employ. And it's not going to be easy to remake the blue line until internal options reach that stage because it seems like most of the options available to the Sharks externally are depth guys.
- Jul 25, 2007
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I don't want to get into the playoffs just to get into the playoffs, I want a contender. Avs went to the playoffs and then immediately back to the basement.
Chicago I already addressed. We don't have a single D on the level of Byfuglien, let alone Keith and Seabrook, who were already established before Kane/Toews arrived. Not to mention Patrick Sharp, Andrew Ladd...
Devils were like Avs. who cares, one playoffs and done, back to the basement.
Edmonton you addressed -- they had 4 1OA picks, hardly the same situation.
Rangers - come on man, that wasn't a strip to the studs rebuild and they got lucky to pick 1OA.
Toronto - not the model I'm excited to follow
Panthers -- again who cares. Took them until 2023 to be a contender and the roster building free agency moves they made took 5 years, you're asking for those moves to be done in one offseason.
It's 25% less if all you consider is 3 out of 4. And it was unheard of. And Nashville is already a solid team. It is absolutely fully insane and unrealistic to assume we will SIGN three, let alone four marquee FA's in one offseason. It is not crazy to expect he takes a stab.
Regardless of whether it's realistic, I guess I just don't understand why you're so excited to make the playoffs when you have pointed out yourself that it takes far longer to actually be a contender. And even if we make the playoffs it'll likely be a blip. Why die on this hill? Just summertime musings?
The tl;dr is that our defense is still bad and prospects typically take 5+ years to actually develop into impact players, and even prospects that don't spend years trying to build up and around them, much more often than they immediately jump into contention. Rather than cherry pick the most legendary multi-winning teams of the past 15 years (CHI, PIT), we should be looking at the MTL, ANA, COL, NJD, EDM, FLA, TBL, hell even LAK rebuilds to see what is realistic.
If what you want to do is talk about what is absolutely "possible" if 100% of things hit their absolute ceiling, then yes, the Sharks could be the first franchise since forever to win 5 cups in 10 years, if Smith, Musty, Celebrini, Dickinson, and Mukh all become HOFers and we sign every top UFA under the sun for 2 offseasons starting next year for less than their market rate.
Cool, thanks for your thoughts. They are very rational, and its easy to see where you are coming from. I think most in the hockey world would concur with you. Summertime musings? For sure
Wishful thinking? Absolutely. Your counterpoints are all quite valid, and if I was putting money on it, I certainly would not guess the sharks to be a PO team this year or next. I might say 50/50 on being a PO team sometime in the next 3 years. I also dont see a downside in trying to sign top UFAs. Empty cap space doesnt do you any good (aside from saving your owner $$$). There is a downside in trading for top guys, but not signing them on the market. Its why I like the toffoli deal. 30 goal scorer for 'free' (given ample cap space). What's the possible downside of adding a 30 goal cup winning vet? or trying to add even more of them next summer? I dont expect grier to succeed, but you never know As for the blueline, the good thing about NHL D is that you really only need 4. Top D can eat 23+ mins/night. 33 guys played that much last year. If you have 4 guys that can play those kind of minutes, then your bottom pair only has to play 13 mins or so, making them largely meaningless aside from injury fill in.
Thus, unlike forwards, where you really need at least 9 effective guys, you need only 4 D, so signing a couple minute eating vets will revamp a blueline overnight. This is why getting boyle and Burns (and, ahem, karlsson if he had stayed healthy and played at his capability earlier) was so transformative. Also why signing good complimentary guys like paul martin and Rob blake, along with Brendan Dillon and the like worked out so well.
As such, while I fully agree that our blueline is horrific, I think fixing that can be done with two vet signings over a summer. Then, all you need is one of mukh or dickinson (or one of the the other prospects) to be able to develop into a top 4 and you have a revamped and potentially solid blueline. Perhaps this summer he chose not to go shopping in order to give Mukh, Thrun, and Emberson a real look to see what he has there and if any of those three can be top 4 D. By next summer, we should have a pretty good idea of whether the prospects are ready for big minutes, and if at least 1 is, then I expect GMMG to go shopping to build the blueline around them. If all three struggle, then perhaps Grier stays more paitent.
Lastly Pettersson and Larsson are hardly big name UFAs. They arent bad, but they arent big names due 10+M either. Both had 30 pts or less last year, but I think both can eat 23+ mins, and both can provide more offense if they had PP minutes. I fail to see why GMMG couldnt take a swing at both of those guys and maybe even land them.There are others on the market too (barring extensions) like chychrun, Theodore, Pionk, Provorov, Mccabe, Lindell, Orlov and others, so getting pettersson and Larsson would not be like getting the two obvious prizes. All those guys will be signed somewhere, so why not two of them in SJ?
A D corps of Pettersson, larsson, Walman, Ferraro, Mukh, and Dickinson (Thrun+Emberson, or if Thompson has a good year...) is good enough to make the PO's if the young forwards play well, and I see little downside in targeting those guys as they would help the kids develop better while costing nothing in terms of future assets.
I also fail to understand why this eventuality is so vastly improbable. Im not saying it's better than 50%, but I think its very possible that the young guys develop nicely, especilly if warsofsky does a good job in creating a good team culture and instilling a much better defensive system.
Nashville's summer spending spree strikes me as desperation rather than a serious attempt to build a contender. They were a marginal playoff team before the signings. Most of their key players are in their 30s, the age where decline is more likely than improvement. They will probably be a solid playoff team for the next couple of years but not a real contender.
I can see this argument, but I dont agree that they are not a real contender.
Yes, many of their top dogs are in their 30s, but not that late 30s. march 33, stammer 34, orielly 33, nyquist 34, josi 34. Forseberg is just 29, Skjei 30, scissons, 30.
They also some good 20's guys in Novak 27, evangelista, 21...
Their near term window is closing for sure, but I expect they will be a contender next year. 3 years from now? Not so sure, although they do have 2 1sts, 2 2nds, and 3 3rd rounders next year and their recent first rounders played very well in Milwaukee. They have a respectable farm and lots of draft capital to restock so I think that gives them to ability to take the swing they did this summer. I applaud Trotz, as I think he was a brilliant coach, and has done well as a GM too.
On a side note: I wonder if they are gunna move askarov? Saros is signed long term at big $$$, so it makes little sense to bury hi the minors until his contract expires and then you get nothing. The sharks were looking for a starting goalie for the Cuda who could be the NHL starter of the future according to Joe Will.
Seems a match made in heaven. Nashville is in Win Now mode, but is going to need to get future assets for when the old guys expire in a few years, and they can trade an currently blocked and thus useless asset to the sharks for some good future. I wonder if there is a deal in the works already, since Will alluded to adding a guy just like Askarov soon.
As another side note: I wonder id GMMG is actually done this summer?
There are some teams out there with cap issues:
1. Oilers seem a bit over.
2. Nashville is at the cap but with only 20 players, so they seem over.
3. Nucks are right at it, so they may need to clear a bit.
4. Rangers are right at it too.
5. Lighting have just 700k or so, but only 22 players, so they are a touch over if the roster is full.
Minny, Florida, Toronto all very tight.
it seems like up to a 1/3 of the league is over or right at the cap. they would not be able to add at the deadline if they stay so close. I wonder if there is still some trading/moving to be done...
I also wonder if the UFAs stay that way? Seems hard to believe some of these guys cant find NHL homes at league min prices? Tyler Johnson had 17 goals in 67 games last year. Schultz, shatterkirk, barrie all seem like still NHL caliber players? Schultz struggled some last year, but he had 34 pts and +3 for Seattle the year before and is still healthy enough to play 70+ games in each of the last three years, even if not the best defensively.
Dominick Kubalik? had a down year last year, but had goals tallies of 30,17,15, and 20 the previous 4 years. just 28 years old... Defensively iffy, but still...
There are some teams out there with cap issues:
1. Oilers seem a bit over.
2. Nashville is at the cap but with only 20 players, so they seem over.
3. Nucks are right at it, so they may need to clear a bit.
4. Rangers are right at it too.
5. Lighting have just 700k or so, but only 22 players, so they are a touch over if the roster is full.
Minny, Florida, Toronto all very tight.
it seems like up to a 1/3 of the league is over or right at the cap. they would not be able to add at the deadline if they stay so close. I wonder if there is still some trading/moving to be done...
I also wonder if the UFAs stay that way? Seems hard to believe some of these guys cant find NHL homes at league min prices? Tyler Johnson had 17 goals in 67 games last year. Schultz, shatterkirk, barrie all seem like still NHL caliber players? Schultz struggled some last year, but he had 34 pts and +3 for Seattle the year before and is still healthy enough to play 70+ games in each of the last three years, even if not the best defensively.
Dominick Kubalik? had a down year last year, but had goals tallies of 30,17,15, and 20 the previous 4 years. just 28 years old... Defensively iffy, but still...
LadyStanley
Registered User
Pretty crazy praise.
All the hype on celly makes me wonder if we are in for a big disappointment. Fantilli won the HB as a freshman last year, but because of bedard, he wasnt in the running for the top pick. He had a somewhat rough NHl debut, Is Celly that much better. I was not that wowed in the prospect scrimmage (I thought smith looked much better), and comparing him to crosby seems overboard as Sid was known to be generational in his draft year like mcdavid. Celly seems more like the lafreneire, slavkovsky, jack hughes type #1 overall, no? Maybe a bit better, but below the crosby, mcdavid level.
of course, I guess well find out.... Man I want the season to get going...
Tw1ster
Registered User
I don’t think anyone is expecting Mcdavid or Crosby like production and pretty much every article I’ve seen puts him in the “franchise player role but not generational” tier. The style of hockey he plays is comparable to Crosby, not potential production. I believe he’s in the Jack Hughes range and a tier above the Lafreniere pick but who knows until he actually plays
Hodge
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- Apr 27, 2021
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Celebrini was 8 months younger than Fantilli in their respective draft years. If Fantilli had been born a few weeks earlier he would have been eligible for the 2022 draft. Celebrini was also more productive than Fantilli in their D-1 years. Doesn't mean Celebrini will be a better NHL player than Fantilli but he is unquestionably the superior prospect.
yeah, I will admit that the 8 months younger part is impressive, as that makes a difference at his age. fascinating similar pathways though. Both played for the Steel, had similar stats (celly is a bit higher), went to college and had smilar stats to lead their teams by practically the same amount and win the HB as a freshman.
I guess we'll see, but my expectations, at least for this year, are that I'll be happy if he gets 20 goals and 50 pts and is not -100. I don't love comparisons to crosby unless they are warranted. All the talk of his defensive prowess will be interesting to watch too, as I suppose that's the comp more than the offensive skill.
Personally, I expect more from Smith than celly this year. More than a year older, outscored celly (albeit with amazing linemates), and looked amazing in the prospect scrimmage. I kinda get the feeling he may be the top dog despite getting second billing this year.
Juxtaposer
Outro: Divina Comedia
I think that people who didn't watch Celebrini play all year aren't quite understanding how special a prospect he is. Sure, he doesn't have the absolutely best-of-the-best offensive tools like Crosby, but you know how Crosby has always been called "the perfect grinder"? Celebrini is the same in that sense. He is absolutely relentless on defense, on the forecheck, in the offensive zone trying to force turnovers, in the neutral zone trying to prevent entries, he is quite literally the best 17 year old I have ever seen off-puck. He never ever cheats for offense, he doesn't wait around for the puck to come to him, he makes things happen every single shift. He's also got an elite offensive game, but it's his off-puck game and the way he has literally no flaws is what makes him a franchise-defining player. His off-puck game is everything I raved about in Zach Benson last year except cranked up to 15 and in a taller and stronger body. And he just put up 64 points in 38 NCAA games as a 17 year old on a team with no high-end forwards outside of Macklin.
I love Will Smith, but Celebrini is just like two levels above him. He's the guy.
I love Will Smith, but Celebrini is just like two levels above him. He's the guy.
hohosaregood
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One thing that makes Celebrini pop to me is that he has some of that sudden high acceleration drive through the neutral zone that you'll see from the top guys. Obviously not at the same level as like McDavid or Mackinnon or Hughes but he can just turn a defensive sequence into offense instantly and effortlessly.
OrrNumber4
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- Jul 25, 2002
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Effusive praise, so let me ask you this.
Say you could exchange Celebrini or Will Smith for just-turned-18 Patrick Marleau. You know how Marleau is going to develop, more or less. Do you make any swaps?
From what I've read, it seems like that would be a hard no for Celebrini, but maybe a yes for Smith?
What a great question!!
Its hard for me to answer, both cuz I'm obviously not expert enough to judge Celly or smith, but also because its hard to know how good patty would have been without jumbo. His career took off really after jumbo arrived. His career high was 57 pts, and then jumbo comes in and Boom, patty goes for 86pts. Personally Id rather have both smith and celly over a guaranteed 60 pts guy. It's very possible they dont end up that good consistently (yakupov, stefan), or perhaps rouhgly that level Hall or RNH aside from a few flashes, but if patty woulda been more of a 70-80 pt guy anyways, then Id take that. I would take a guaranteed approx point per game player over just about any prospect pre NHL debut. Yes, you might be forgoing a 100 pt guy, but pt per game is pretty damn good if guaranteed.
OrrNumber4
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- Jul 25, 2002
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My head-canon with Marleau, supported by what little we know, is this:
Sutter constantly told Marleau that if he wanted to be an impact player in this league, he had to change his style of play, as his explosive style that did well in juniors wouldn't succeed in the NHL, and ultimately, he didn't have the offensive talent to be a true difference maker. Marleau and he clashed over that, as Sutter constantly hamstrung Marleau's minutes and forced him to play more defensively, to Marleau's consternation.
Then you have free-wheeling Ron Wilson, plus the lockout with new rules, and Marleau is allowed to open up offensively. Yes, playing with more talented offensive players (like Thornton) helped, but the rule and system changes are a big factor as well, and he puts up a lot of points. Then comes 2008; after two years of failing in the playoffs, Ron Wilson tries to get the team to play a more systematic, cautious, defensive game, which Marleau hates and clashes with the coach over. It's Sutter-Marleau all over again, but he's even worse.
Wilson is fired, and in comes T-Mac. At this point, and this is where it is pure speculation:
1) Marleau, having played with Thornton, realizes that Sutter was absolutely right...his path to stardom is a different one
2) Seeing Thornton do well even in a defensive system spurs Marleau to be the same
3) T-Mac is now the third coach telling him he needs to be more well-rounded, finally shifting Marleau's attitude
So from then on, Marleau embraces the role of true 3-zone, Selke-worthy, all-around threat...and with that, the points still come.
To bring it all back to your original question, that's the Marleau you get: a player with a long career and prime, with a few peak years as a borderline elite winger surrounded by many years as a top-6 forward, ending his career with a few stunted years as a bottom-6 forward.
