Confirmed with Link: Sharks acquire Yaroslav Askarov (w/extension, 2yr @ $2m per), F Nolan Burke 2025 3rd for Edstrom, VGK 1st, and G Chrona

[TheBeard]

Oh my f***ing god, the Vegas pick is not going to be top-10. It's not going to be Matt Schaefer or Porter Martone. I get that fantasizing about Vegas pulling a 2020 Sharks was fun to fantasize about when we had their pick but it's not going to happen, have any of you looked at all the actual bad teams in this league right now? Have any of you looked at the rosters of any of the Pacific teams outside of Edmonton? Y'all are seriously hand-wringing over nothing.

Yeah. But think about it. What do the 2020 sharks and the 2024 knights have in common?

You guessed it…

Thomas Hertl

*insert mind blown gif.

 

[LilLeeroy]

Oh my f***ing god, the Vegas pick is not going to be top-10. It's not going to be Matt Schaefer or Porter Martone. I get that fantasizing about Vegas pulling a 2020 Sharks was fun to fantasize about when we had their pick but it's not going to happen, have any of you looked at all the actual bad teams in this league right now? Have any of you looked at the rosters of any of the Pacific teams outside of Edmonton? Y'all are seriously hand-wringing over nothing.

The Sharks in 2019 were actually a good team before falling off a cliff in 2020. Like I said earlier Vegas had the 13th worst xGF% last season and 12th worst Corsi%. The Kraken were a better team by those metrics, while Calgary and Arizona were just barely worse.

I just honestly don't get why people are acting like the idea that Vegas could be a bottom 10 team next season is crazy. And obviously hockey is a game with a lot of variance, so it definitely is possible that Vegas is just as bad or worse than last year but still make the playoffs.

 

[Bartcal]

How much does it cost the rebuild if he doesn't hit? You are down an ok prospect and a 1st round pick. Nothing devastating. How much does it help the rebuild if he does hit? Massively. The hardest position to find a gem. And one with a head start on development. The reward outweighs the risk by a lot.

 

[Shark Finn]

You think the pick odds are that low for a team that was the 13th worst in the NHL last season by xGF% and just lost their #1 goal scorer, goalie, and a lot of depth?

I'd put the odds at 1-5: 2%, 5-10: 25%, 10-15: 60%, 15-20:12%, 20-32: 1%

This has to be the definition of pulling something out of one's ass, seriously.

 

[Stewie Griffin]

Who cares what this VGK pick becomes? The absolute worst case scenario would be SJS and VGK 1sts both win the lotteries and we'd essentially give up 2nd overall...but what are the odds of that happening lol?

Askarov was drafted 11th, has developed nice, and as goalie develop older, he matches our timeline absolutely perfectly. Would you rather draft someone in the 10-15 range with the VGK pick ourselves who takes 3-4 years to make the league?

 

[Hodge]

If you think about it as Hertl, Chrona and a 3rd for Askarov it’s not much to give up. Hertl’s contract is a negative value asset.

 

[Barrie22]

Which sharks contract will come off the books when the seasons start? As of right now the sharks are at 51 contracts of the allowed 50

 

[Stewie Griffin]

Which sharks contract will come off the books when the seasons start? As of right now the sharks are at 51 contracts of the allowed 50

Couture LTIR lol?

 

[sampler]

The Sharks in 2019 were actually a good team before falling off a cliff in 2020. Like I said earlier Vegas had the 13th worst xGF% last season and 12th worst Corsi%. The Kraken were a better team by those metrics, while Calgary and Arizona were just barely worse.

I just honestly don't get why people are acting like the idea that Vegas could be a bottom 10 team next season is crazy. And obviously hockey is a game with a lot of variance, so it definitely is possible that Vegas is just as bad or worse than last year but still make the playoffs.

It is possible that vegas tanks. very possible. But still more likely that they dont, at least not that low. As I mentioned, I think bubble team. 10-20 pick most likely. Id say likely approx 60% that they fall in that range. So, they could be bottom 10, but the probability is not THAT high.

The pick being proteted is actually a stroke of genius by grier that I had not valued properly. If vegas misses the PO's, the sharks still have two lottery picks. Its a very important insurance against a bad vegas team, a lucky vegas lottery, or a surprisingly good hsarks team. I think Grier thinks the sharks may surprise people which is partly why he put this protection in.

 

[LilLeeroy]

Who cares what this VGK pick becomes? The absolute worst case scenario would be SJS and VGK 1sts both win the lotteries and we'd essentially give up 2nd overall...but what are the odds of that happening lol?

Askarov was drafted 11th, has developed nice, and as goalie develop older, he matches our timeline absolutely perfectly. Would you rather draft someone in the 10-15 range with the VGK pick ourselves who takes 3-4 years to make the league?

I personally think it's far too early in the rebuild to worry about guys in the draft not fitting the timeline, even from the 2026 draft. Cale Makar was drafted 4 years after Mackinnon, and we still don't know whether Celebrini is going to be a Mackinnon or a Landeskog. So yes I would rather have the pick in the 10-15 range.

If you think about it as Hertl, Chrona and a 3rd for Askarov it’s not much to give up. Hertl’s contract is a negative value asset.

This is a good way to look at it, thanks.

 

[Cas]

Couture LTIR lol?

Which sharks contract will come off the books when the seasons start? As of right now the sharks are at 51 contracts of the allowed 50

LTIR contracts count against the limit (and the cap).

Musty, Halttunen, Dickinson, Chernyshov, and maybe Cagnoni won't count against the limit.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Which sharks contract will come off the books when the seasons start? As of right now the sharks are at 51 contracts of the allowed 50

Chernyshov, Musty, Halttunen, and Dickinson all will slide and not count towards the limit if/when they're cut from the Sharks training camp roster.

 

[Celly4Celebrini]

The Sharks in 2019 were actually a good team before falling off a cliff in 2020. Like I said earlier Vegas had the 13th worst xGF% last season and 12th worst Corsi%. The Kraken were a better team by those metrics, while Calgary and Arizona were just barely worse.

I just honestly don't get why people are acting like the idea that Vegas could be a bottom 10 team next season is crazy. And obviously hockey is a game with a lot of variance, so it definitely is possible that Vegas is just as bad or worse than last year but still make the playoffs.

because VGK got much better at the deadline? They didnt have Hanifin/Hertl for most of the year? The rest from getting beat out early will help?

I think we saw the writing on the wall with the 2019 Sharks, where they overachieved compared to expectations. It could be argued VGK underachieved this year.

 

[jarr92]

As STL Shark noted, according to betting books the Vegas pick was valued at about #23 at the time of the trade. IMO that’s how the pick should be valued.

 

[Cas]

I'd be more surprised if Vegas fails to make the playoffs than if they win the Cup. They're a good team and likely to remain good for at least a year.

 

[weastern bias]

I just don’t see the Sharks risk the same as others. If they end up trading a top 10 pick then the Sharks are guaranteed to have a better pick in the top 10 than they give up. Also of Vegas tanks the Sharks could have close to 30% odds of winning the lottery and 60% odds of picking top 2. Even if they give up a top 5 pick that would mean the Sharks have a better top 5 pick. Obviously 2 top 5 picks would be nice but Askarov plus a top 4 pick would still be very nice to have.

I think this is the best way of looking at this trade

We parlayed an unknown future asset in a pick with an undefined slot in the first round into a prospect we know has significant upside

And even though we only have one 1st round pick in the 2025 draft, we actually greatly increased our lottery odds via the conditional protections in the event Vegas actually misses the playoffs

This was a smart and measured move

 

[Jargon]

For sheer debate purposes, I’m curious why people disagree with the statement: “Askarov is a Celebrini-level prospect at goal.”

I understand that he can absolutely bust or not meet his potential, and that goalies are much harder to predict. But I’m also not saying he’s a Celebrini-level prospect in general, that is, I still rated him 3rd in our prospect list BECAUSE of how hard it is to predict goalies, BUT…

…if a prospect is *arguably* the #1 prospect *in his position* in the world, why is he not Celebrini-level at goalie? How much better does he have to be? I would argue that someone like Carey Price was actually a higher level prospect than Celebrini, as he was closer to like a Crosby-type and like Askarov, there’s a chance Celebrini is a really great 2C or something and never meets his franchise potential. Less of a chance, but it’s there. So, I think the comparison is actually quite apt.

REBUTTALS?

 

[Shark in Hockeytown]

Just catching up, but if he were Celebrini level (as in, a G who is as important as a franchise C), he would have gone 1-3. Like Fleury.

Twenty years ago, teams were much more willing to spend first round picks on goalies. As the development increased, a number of those first-round goalies never even became NHL backups, and the number of star goalies emerged who were drafted in later rounds, few first-round picks are used on goalies. Earlier in this thread, someone (if may have been you) gave a list of all the first round goalies in the last twenty years. The dropoff in their numbers after about 2010 is noticable. I think Askarov would have gone top five in the draft twenty years ago just judging by the hype around him when he was drafted.

 

[Alaskanice]

For sheer debate purposes, I’m curious why people disagree with the statement: “Askarov is a Celebrini-level prospect at goal.”

I understand that he can absolutely bust or not meet his potential, and that goalies are much harder to predict. But I’m also not saying he’s a Celebrini-level prospect in general, that is, I still rated him 3rd in our prospect list BECAUSE of how hard it is to predict goalies, BUT…

…if a prospect is *arguably* the #1 prospect *in his position* in the world, why is he not Celebrini-level at goalie? How much better does he have to be? I would argue that someone like Carey Price was actually a higher level prospect than Celebrini, as he was closer to like a Crosby-type and like Askarov, there’s a chance Celebrini is a really great 2C or something and never meets his franchise potential. Less of a chance, but it’s there. So, I think the comparison is actually quite apt.

REBUTTALS?

Seeing some of Askarovs highlights and his consistency, I have no rebuttal.

 

[sampler]

Its also about organizational need. This trade was based on that. Notice: grier is not targeting trading for a top line C prospect. Of course not since we have at least two of those. Naturally, you never know if one or either will pan out, but the main reason askarov was dealt in the first place is because he no longer fit the organizational need.

Sharks dont need another 4-5 top prospects. Prior to the trade, we needed a top goalie prospect and one more top D prospect. Now, we have the goalie prospect and our 2025 pick, so we should be done with the prospect accumulation phase by next summer, and each prospect will have a clear path toward the NHL if they earn it with no glut or overload at any specific position, but instrad healthy competition (aside from G, I guess).

 

[Jargon]

Twenty years ago, teams were much more willing to spend first round picks on goalies. As the development increased, a number of those first-round goalies never even became NHL backups, and the number of star goalies emerged who were drafted in later rounds, few first-round picks are used on goalies. Earlier in this thread, someone (if may have been you) gave a list of all the first round goalies in the last twenty years. The dropoff in their numbers after about 2010 is noticable. I think Askarov would have gone top five in the draft twenty years ago just judging by the hype around him when he was drafted.

Right, I don’t think that argument holds weight because, exactly, goalies are valued completely differently now. Teams are happy to stuff an Adin Hill back there and very few would take a risk on a goalie in the top 1-3. I’m honestly not sure Price would’ve gone 1-3 at this point.

 

[LadyStanley]

I'd be more surprised if Vegas fails to make the playoffs than if they win the Cup. They're a good team and likely to remain good for at least a year.

Who have older guys, some who have missed a lot of time because of recent injuries (Stone for example).

 

[weastern bias]

For sheer debate purposes, I’m curious why people disagree with the statement: “Askarov is a Celebrini-level prospect at goal.”

I understand that he can absolutely bust or not meet his potential, and that goalies are much harder to predict. But I’m also not saying he’s a Celebrini-level prospect in general, that is, I still rated him 3rd in our prospect list BECAUSE of how hard it is to predict goalies, BUT…

…if a prospect is *arguably* the #1 prospect *in his position* in the world, why is he not Celebrini-level at goalie? How much better does he have to be? I would argue that someone like Carey Price was actually a higher level prospect than Celebrini, as he was closer to like a Crosby-type and like Askarov, there’s a chance Celebrini is a really great 2C or something and never meets his franchise potential. Less of a chance, but it’s there. So, I think the comparison is actually quite apt.

REBUTTALS?

Celebrini is about as close to a "sure thing" to be a 1C as you can get in a prospect, everything about him from his measurables to his intangibles indicate his floor is a legit 1C on a playoff team and his ceiling is a hall of famer

Askarov has a much lower floor, his ceiling is Vezina candidacy but his floor is sub-NHL caliber goaltender, he's much more of a Will Smith/Sam Dickinson level of prospect in that regard

The big difference is variance, they have similar upside, but Askarov has a way riskier downside, Macklin is going to be a very good NHL player no matter what, we don't know that to be true about Askarov

 

[tiburon12]

I'd be more surprised if Vegas fails to make the playoffs than if they win the Cup. They're a good team and likely to remain good for at least a year.

and even if they fall off the Pacific is weak enough that it would be hard for them to finish behind all the central teams that didn't make it last year.

 

[Juxtaposer]

For sheer debate purposes, I’m curious why people disagree with the statement: “Askarov is a Celebrini-level prospect at goal.”

I understand that he can absolutely bust or not meet his potential, and that goalies are much harder to predict. But I’m also not saying he’s a Celebrini-level prospect in general, that is, I still rated him 3rd in our prospect list BECAUSE of how hard it is to predict goalies, BUT…

…if a prospect is *arguably* the #1 prospect *in his position* in the world, why is he not Celebrini-level at goalie? How much better does he have to be? I would argue that someone like Carey Price was actually a higher level prospect than Celebrini, as he was closer to like a Crosby-type and like Askarov, there’s a chance Celebrini is a really great 2C or something and never meets his franchise potential. Less of a chance, but it’s there. So, I think the comparison is actually quite apt.

REBUTTALS?

One could argue he has Celebrini upside at the goaltender position, but Celebrini is as safe as an elite prospect can get and Askarov is not. That's the difference to me. I'd say Askarov is a Will Smith level prospect but that G is a far less important position than C so I value him less than Smith.