Confirmed with Link: Sharks acquire Yaroslav Askarov (w/extension, 2yr @ $2m per), F Nolan Burke 2025 3rd for Edstrom, VGK 1st, and G Chrona

[TheBigDrunkPanda]

Watching some videos on Preds beat writers opinion on Askarov and the disturbing trend with him is he likes to play really far out of his net and tends to go on adventures. Additionally he’s been pulled in both playoff runs with the admirals had and lost his starting job to Groesnick and Cooley. Now it sounds like a overpayment again

 

[LilLeeroy]

Revisiting this, it’s actually insane to me that some people are worried about the return. Askarov is heralded as a *franchise-changing goalie*. He may not get there, of course there are concerns, but getting a Celebrini-level prospect for f***ing Edstrom and likely a late 1st, you kidding me? You make that deal every single day.

And some of us don't think he's a Celebrini-level prospect, like Edstrom, and don't think it is likely a late 1st. It's okay to have different opinions.

Watching some videos on Preds beat writers opinion on Askarov and the disturbing trend with him is he likes to play really far out of his net and tends to go on adventures. Additionally he’s been pulled in both playoff runs with the admirals had and lost his starting job. Now it sounds like a overpayment again

I mean all of that is okay when you have the production to back it up. Problem is Askarov gets in his own head and can't stop a beach ball for long stretches of the season.

 

[Jargon]

And some of us don't think he's a Celebrini-level prospect, like Edstrom, and don't think it is likely a late 1st. It's okay to have different opinions.

It’s totally okay to have differing opinions, mine is just that it’s a very obvious move to make, is all. The ceiling is too good not to take a risk on and while sure, the Vegas pick hurts, we can find a lot of Edstroms through trade or draft.

 

[TheBigDrunkPanda]

And some of us don't think he's a Celebrini-level prospect, like Edstrom, and don't think it is likely a late 1st. It's okay to have different opinions.


I mean all of that is okay when you have the production to back it up. Problem is Askarov gets in his own head and can't stop a beach ball for long stretches of the season.

That’s what I’m worried about I’m getting Byrzgalov/Cechmanek vibes lol

 

[one2gamble]

It’s totally okay to have differing opinions, mine is just that it’s a very obvious move to make, is all. The ceiling is too good not to take a risk on and while sure, the Vegas pick hurts, we can find a lot of Edstroms through trade or draft.

The Vegas pick might hurt, it might not. If its outside the top 15 I dont think it hurts at all regardless of the outcome.

They needed to make a play in net, though I dont think it was super important right now, I think they are looking forward 4 years.

 

[Jargon]

The Vegas pick might hurt, it might not. If its outside the top 15 I dont think it hurts at all regardless of the outcome.

They needed to make a play in net, though I dont think it was super important right now, I think they are looking forward 4 years.

I agree that maybe now isn’t the IDEAL time but actually, it also sort of is. He bet on a very high end goalie prospect for a fairly low price (considering his ceiling) who will likely (if all works out) be good just as Celebrini and Smith start figuring out the NHL and probably as other draft picks are coming in. Instead of being a starting goalie in 5 years, he is very close and matches the team’s timeline. And above all, I think you just have to take a swing when someone of his caliber is available especially because we could make the trade with fairly limited effect on our future. We can find ways to replenish that 1st, but even if we don’t — we likely have a very high pick coming this year again and we have a lot of prospects better or equal to Edstrom. I just think, again, it’s an absolutely worthwhile risk to take in the immediate.

 

[LilLeeroy]

Searching for production comparisons for Askarov and can anybody think of an example of a goalie prospect whose production in their second year in the AHL went down and then went on to be a star?

Trying to find some comparables but it seems like basically every single one of the highly regarded goalie prospects I can think of (Vasilevskiy/Fleury/Oettinger/Rinne/Saros) production increased significantly in their second seasons in the AHL.

 

[hohosaregood]

Searching for production comparisons for Askarov and can anybody think of an example of a goalie prospect whose production in their second year in the AHL went down and then went on to be a star?

Trying to find some comparables but it seems like basically every single one of the highly regarded goalie prospects I can think of (Vasilevskiy/Fleury/Oettinger/Rinne/Saros) production increased significantly in their second seasons in the AHL.

How has his production gone down? Same Sv%, lower GAA, and more wins.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Searching for production comparisons for Askarov and can anybody think of an example of a goalie prospect whose production in their second year in the AHL went down and then went on to be a star?

Trying to find some comparables but it seems like basically every single one of the highly regarded goalie prospects I can think of (Vasilevskiy/Fleury/Oettinger/Rinne/Saros) production increased significantly in their second seasons in the AHL.

I don't think the premise that his production went down in the second year to be a legitimate one. His regular season numbers were a very slight improvement and his playoff numbers went down. The issue there is putting any sort of weight on 12 and 5 game sample sizes as a way to assess development is probably going to be faulty.

 

[gaucholoco3]

Searching for production comparisons for Askarov and can anybody think of an example of a goalie prospect whose production in their second year in the AHL went down and then went on to be a star?

Trying to find some comparables but it seems like basically every single one of the highly regarded goalie prospects I can think of (Vasilevskiy/Fleury/Oettinger/Rinne/Saros) production increased significantly in their second seasons in the AHL.

Didn’t he have a 21 game winning streak and 6 shutouts. That doesn’t sound like a disappointing season. The consistency is great but ceiling and peak performance is more important for a goalie.

 

[LilLeeroy]

How has his production gone down? Same Sv%, lower GAA, and more wins.

Identical save percentage in regular season, lower in the playoffs

 

[LilLeeroy]

Didn’t he have a 21 game winning streak and 6 shutouts. That doesn’t sound like a disappointing season. The consistency is great but ceiling and peak performance is more important for a goalie.

Unfortunately the games didn't stop counting towards the end of the season

 

[weastern bias]

Sure he played less games and had more wins with an identical save percentage, but his production went down

 

[TheBeard]

That’s what I’m worried about I’m getting Byrzgalov/Cechmanek vibes lol

Did Brygalov once finish top 5 in Hart voting?

 

[LilLeeroy]

Sure he played less games and had more wins with an identical save percentage, but his production went down

Well I was including the playoffs. So, excluding playoffs are there examples of goalie prospects that had an identical or worse SV% in their second season in the AHL compared to their first and went on to be a star?

Looks Hellebuyck was close with a 0.921 SV% in his first-year vs a 0.922 SV% in his second, but obviously it is harder to improve on a first year that was already fantastic.

 

[Cas]

I wasn't aware that raw save percentage was considered a particularly accurate statistic for the purposes of evaluating goaltenders.

 

[OrrNumber4]

Revisiting this, it’s actually insane to me that some people are worried about the return. Askarov is heralded as a *franchise-changing goalie*. He may not get there, of course there are concerns, but getting a Celebrini-level prospect for f***ing Edstrom and likely a late 1st, you kidding me? You make that deal every single day.

Not a "Celebrini-level prospect", but say a Smith-level prospect who's already developed for four years and has mostly hit the expected beats. Still, not a bad price.

 

[Hodge]

I wasn't aware that raw save percentage was considered a particularly accurate statistic for the purposes of evaluating goaltenders.

It's not, or at least shouldn't be. I would be interested to know what some of the private GSAx data looks like.

 

[LilLeeroy]

I wasn't aware that raw save percentage was considered a particularly accurate statistic for the purposes of evaluating goaltenders.

Do you have a better comparison point for goalie prospects? Just trying to get a general sense of the performance of goalie prospects before they made the NHL.

 

[Cas]

Do you have a better comparison point for goalie prospects? Just trying to get a general sense of the performance of goalie prospects before they made the NHL.

Scouting, unless you have some context-independent metrics available for AHL goaltenders.

You're also cherrypicking - even if you can assume raw save percentage is meaningful, you need a large sample of goaltenders, successful or not, to determine whether improvement in save percentage from AHL/KHL/etc Year 1 to Year 2 is predictive.

 

[hohosaregood]

Scouting, unless you have some context-independent metrics available for AHL goaltenders.

You're also cherrypicking - even if you can assume raw save percentage is meaningful, you need a large sample of goaltenders, successful or not, to determine whether improvement in save percentage from AHL/KHL/etc Year 1 to Year 2 is predictive.

And you'd need to normalize it or adjust it somehow since all of these lower level leagues have changed quite a bit over the last couple years. Like Kahkonen had a .927 in the 2020 AHL season and he's garbo.

 

[Jargon]

Not a "Celebrini-level prospect", but say a Smith-level prospect who's already developed for four years and has mostly hit the expected beats. Still, not a bad price.

Maybe the lack of certainty about what he ends up being means he’s less Celebrini and more Smith but his ceiling for a goalie seems comparable to Celebrini’s ceiling as a center man - a franchise-level player in their position.

Not that he’s going to hit it but, it seems to be there.

 

[Patty Ice]

And some of us don't think he's a Celebrini-level prospect, like Edstrom, and don't think it is likely a late 1st. It's okay to have different opinions.

How much does it cost the rebuild if he doesn't hit? You are down an ok prospect and a 1st round pick. Nothing devastating. How much does it help the rebuild if he does hit? Massively. The hardest position to find a gem. And one with a head start on development. The reward outweighs the risk by a lot.

 

[sharski]

feel like for the price, as long as he ends up being a bona fide starting goalie and not a dang-when-is-his-contract-gonna-run-out-so-that-the-sharks-can-move-on goalie, i still think the trade is worth it

there's like 5 goaltenders total in the history of the nhl who have been franchise-altering players, i think it's crazy to even think there's a possibility of that

and yes, Luongo is one of them

 

[Jargon]

How much does it cost the rebuild if he doesn't hit? You are down an ok prospect and a 1st round pick. Nothing devastating. How much does it help the rebuild if he does hit? Massively. The hardest position to find a gem. And one with a head start on development. The reward outweighs the risk by a lot.

^^^^ this

I mean some people compared him to Carey Price. Again, not saying he’s that but if he reaches his potential…