Speculation: Sharks 2015-2016 Roster Talk: Rumors, Roster, Proposals. Part III ‎

[Quid Pro Clowe]

I love how people are talking about a 20-yo defensive defenseman in his 2nd pro season as if he can't get better. He'll likely never be a huge scorer, but he isn't playing bad in the A. +8 in 30 games.

 

[Vaasa]

I'm curious as to your objective evaluation of the team. Why can't they go all the way?

I think we have an okay crop of young d men and I'd be okay with selling on mueller. Even if I did think he could be a top 4 guy it'd still be a good season to do it. Meier is untouchable to me. As is goldobin.

This team is good. We'd likely be higher in the standings if couture was healthy and we had a halfway reliable back up. Pretty much every team stat we stack up well against Anaheim, Chicago, and LA. Defensively we are a bit behind but I point out again couture and some major stinkers this year. Even with that only 2.15 GA/60 at ES? Good ****.

Deboer has our d Corp scoring more than ever and at the same time leading the league in SA/60 at evens.

Powerplay is top 5. Pk is average but we also take less minor penalties than most of the league and are great at drawing them.

I think this team has a great chance.

I don't. I think it's nearly a guarantee they don't even make it past the 2nd round. Mostly, because I don't think they have the necessary depth of talent. Sure, they are rolling 4 lines now but as we've seen they are still very susceptible to one or two injuries stopping that. Honestly, they still don't seem to trust the 4th line or bottom pair on most nights. And you won't go far in the playoffs if that is the case.

They need Donskoi and Karlsson to be better and more consistent. They Hertl to be more of a scorer than he is, or to be high-end center. One of the two. They need Thornton to continue to play at this level throughout an entire playoff run (something he has never done), they need Marleau to be a high-end offensive threat for an entire playoff run (something he has never done), and they need Jones to be able to play through long playoff rounds and steal them at least 1 game per round (again, something as a new goalie he has never done). Most of all, they need at least 2 of their AHL defensemen to be able to legitimately challenge the current NHL regulars and to be able to step in as replacements who can be fully trusted to play in the playoffs. They need more depth at forward, especially of guys who can score.

I think Hurricanes were a good test of how they would do against a stingy, defensively-oriented team in the playoffs and they failed that test miserably. And the Canes aren't even very physical. We'll see how they do against a very physical team the Blues, but from what I've seen they will likely struggle even with Steen out for the Blues.

Maybe next year the Sharks will be in a better position. But that assumes that they get a lot of guys coming up from the minors who are legitimately skilled NHL players. Enough that they have the depth that losing a guy like Couture, or Vlasic, or even Thornton should not set them back as far as we saw this year. And that will be with Patty and JT being a year older and year slower. Quite simply, the one thing the last 10 years have taught me is that you can't rely on JT or Patty to carry the team on the shoulders through the playoffs. Pavelski and Hertl are right now largely dependent on JT. Couture is trying to make the 3rd line a scoring line, but it's not consistent enough yet. Patty is playing a shut-down role and his line is generating little offense.

I don't think there is any way this team makes it past either the Ducks or Chicago in a playoff series. I'm not even sure they could make it past the Blues. And sure, you could try and fill a lot of depth issues I talked about above by trading the future. But even if you did, I'm still doubtful they could make it past Chicago or Anaheim. So I'm of the opinion that they should build. Horde assets. Try to build real depth. And maybe, just maybe, they will get lucky enough to win a Cup based on depth. Because they sure aren't going to win one based on a few skilled players.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

You really think Carolina was a good test of tight-stingy defense and not the 15 other teams with less GA's allowed that the Sharks may have played against. They beat the Blues 3-1 not too long ago. I understand the hesitation to make any claims about their playoff hopes but a third game in four nights situation where they obviously weren't ready to play is hardly an indicator of how they play against a defensive team. It was one bad night. They've played better defensive teams than Carolina and won their fair share. That doesn't mean much either because until the playoffs are here, rosters are set, and matchups are made, we don't really have an idea of how they'll do. They've shown to be pretty much an equal team to the Kings and Ducks who they will likely play in the first two rounds. They'll at least have a reasonable shot at getting to the conference finals. After that, it's a we'll see on who comes out of the Central.

You're never going to know for sure if they can get past a team anymore because that's what parity does and that's how the playoffs are these days. I don't think they need to really do much at the deadline except maybe get a solid d-man and I doubt the one they end up getting will cost much. I don't see them giving up any truly valuable assets this deadline.

 

[hohosaregood]

What if...Deboer's a coach that lives for the challenges of the playoffs.

 

[OrrNumber4]

I don't. I think it's nearly a guarantee they don't even make it past the 2nd round. Mostly, because I don't think they have the necessary depth of talent. Sure, they are rolling 4 lines now but as we've seen they are still very susceptible to one or two injuries stopping that. Honestly, they still don't seem to trust the 4th line or bottom pair on most nights. And you won't go far in the playoffs if that is the case.

Their depth is about as good as it gets in a capped NHL. Will you not be satisfied until Brent Burns is their #5 and Donskoi is in the stands?

Plenty of teams have gone far in the playoffs (even won a cup) with much worse depth (even context-relatively speaking).

They need Thornton to continue to play at this level throughout an entire playoff run (something he has never done), they need Marleau to be a high-end offensive threat for an entire playoff run (something he has never done), and they need Jones to be able to play through long playoff rounds and steal them at least 1 game per round (again, something as a new goalie he has never done).

These are the main issues. Joe Thornton has an established history of taking it down a tier in the playoffs. Brent Burns is playing the way the Sharks need him to play, but the last 20 or so games are an aberration to his whole career (even pre-Sharks, where he was never this good offensively). Jones is a solid goaltender, but he is going to have to elevate his play to be a guy the Sharks can win with with their current roster. Is that something to bet the farm on?

I think Hurricanes were a good test of how they would do against a stingy, defensively-oriented team in the playoffs and they failed that test miserably. And the Canes aren't even very physical. We'll see how they do against a very physical team the Blues, but from what I've seen they will likely struggle even with Steen out for the Blues.

In general, regular season results don't tell you much about how a team will do in the playoffs. The Sharks were on the road, on a back-to-back, and had relatively little at stake. The situation is completely different in the playoffs.

And maybe, just maybe, they will get lucky enough to win a Cup based on depth. Because they sure aren't going to win one based on a few skilled players.

There is not a champion in the history of the league that hasn't won a cup primarily based on a few skilled players.

 

[Limekiller]

I'm not sure if I completely missed something recent or not but when did Joakim say that Mueller was playing well in the top pairing role?

I don't really have strong feelings about Mueller either way right now but I'd say I'm a generally hopeful person so good news like that would be nice.

He said it in one of the threads on the main board trade forum for something with the Leafs I think it was. Also, I'd just like to make it clear I was repeating what Joakim said re: Mueller. I haven't seen him play myself, and didn't want to give the impression I was passing on firsthand info.


Edit: Found the post in question. http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?p=113967621&highlight=#post113967621

 

[Juxtaposer]

Marner had 2.08 ppg, strome had 1.77. Meier has 1.55.

But still to you to ultimate hater of the meier pick. It probably would not matter if he was at a 10 point per game pace this season. He would still not be good enough for the ultimate master of draft picks of all time like you.

You have hated the pick since day 1 and have never seen 1 bit of good with him since. And you never will until he becomes a full time nhl player.

Firstly, you're simply not paying attention by claiming I've never said anything positive about Meier. I've said plenty of good things about him.

But the fact is that he is not looking like a good pick. It's possible that he ends up better than Barzal, Connor, and Rantanen, but that possibility is not greater than the possibility that he's significantly worse than all three. Therein lies the problem. No one, including me, can see the future, so the best you can do is make the best bet. Meier was clearly not the best bet.

Meier is six months older than Strome or Marner. He plays in the Q, they play in the OHL. And the difference between 1.5 PPG and 2.0 PPG is much bigger than you seem to think it is.

I watched Rantanen play in the AHL a couple times recently. He's incredible. If we wanted a big physical winger, this is who we should have taken. I'm really sick of people complaining about me complaining. Sorry for being really pissed that we ****ed up our highest pick in almost a decade. Sorry for being mad at something that will affect our future significantly.

 

[Barrie22]

Firstly, you're simply not paying attention by claiming I've never said anything positive about Meier. I've said plenty of good things about him.

But the fact is that he is not looking like a good pick. It's possible that he ends up better than Barzal, Connor, and Rantanen, but that possibility is not greater than the possibility that he's significantly worse than all three. Therein lies the problem. No one, including me, can see the future, so the best you can do is make the best bet. Meier was clearly not the best bet.

Meier is six months older than Strome or Marner. He plays in the Q, they play in the OHL. And the difference between 1.5 PPG and 2.0 PPG is much bigger than you seem to think it is.

I watched Rantanen play in the AHL a couple times recently. He's incredible. If we wanted a big physical winger, this is who we should have taken. I'm really sick of people complaining about me complaining. Sorry for being really pissed that we ****ed up our highest pick in almost a decade. Sorry for being mad at something that will affect our future significantly.

Messed up the pick like 90% of this board thought the team did in 2007?

 

[Westin]

Who in hell would we be getting from the Preds for Marleau?

Probably Gnash.

 

[magic school bus]

I love how people are talking about a 20-yo defensive defenseman in his 2nd pro season as if he can't get better. He'll likely never be a huge scorer, but he isn't playing bad in the A. +8 in 30 games.

Yeah, he'll be a bottom pair defenseman one day but that's nothing to write home about.

 

[do0glas]

I don't. I think it's nearly a guarantee they don't even make it past the 2nd round. Mostly, because I don't think they have the necessary depth of talent. Sure, they are rolling 4 lines now but as we've seen they are still very susceptible to one or two injuries stopping that. Honestly, they still don't seem to trust the 4th line or bottom pair on most nights. And you won't go far in the playoffs if that is the case.

They need Donskoi and Karlsson to be better and more consistent. They Hertl to be more of a scorer than he is, or to be high-end center. One of the two. They need Thornton to continue to play at this level throughout an entire playoff run (something he has never done), they need Marleau to be a high-end offensive threat for an entire playoff run (something he has never done), and they need Jones to be able to play through long playoff rounds and steal them at least 1 game per round (again, something as a new goalie he has never done). Most of all, they need at least 2 of their AHL defensemen to be able to legitimately challenge the current NHL regulars and to be able to step in as replacements who can be fully trusted to play in the playoffs. They need more depth at forward, especially of guys who can score.

I think Hurricanes were a good test of how they would do against a stingy, defensively-oriented team in the playoffs and they failed that test miserably. And the Canes aren't even very physical. We'll see how they do against a very physical team the Blues, but from what I've seen they will likely struggle even with Steen out for the Blues.

Maybe next year the Sharks will be in a better position. But that assumes that they get a lot of guys coming up from the minors who are legitimately skilled NHL players. Enough that they have the depth that losing a guy like Couture, or Vlasic, or even Thornton should not set them back as far as we saw this year. And that will be with Patty and JT being a year older and year slower. Quite simply, the one thing the last 10 years have taught me is that you can't rely on JT or Patty to carry the team on the shoulders through the playoffs. Pavelski and Hertl are right now largely dependent on JT. Couture is trying to make the 3rd line a scoring line, but it's not consistent enough yet. Patty is playing a shut-down role and his line is generating little offense.

I don't think there is any way this team makes it past either the Ducks or Chicago in a playoff series. I'm not even sure they could make it past the Blues. And sure, you could try and fill a lot of depth issues I talked about above by trading the future. But even if you did, I'm still doubtful they could make it past Chicago or Anaheim. So I'm of the opinion that they should build. Horde assets. Try to build real depth. And maybe, just maybe, they will get lucky enough to win a Cup based on depth. Because they sure aren't going to win one based on a few skilled players.

So none of this is very objective. It amounts to we need our good players to keep playing good.

The canes were a terrible test. Toronto level defense. Even so, judging anything on a back to back in less than 24 hours seems short sighted.

The funny thing is this team suffered a long term injury to probably our best all around forward (defense, goal scoring, all situations) and didn't really miss a beat. So our depth came up big. The blues are a good team, every playoff bound team is a good team. That includes us.

To win the cup your players have to elevate their game. Tmac could never bring that out but maybe Deboer can. But considering our team this year with a rookie goalie, injuries and a new coach/system and that we are keeping pace with LA I think this team has what it takes.

Patty and joe are the only part I agree with you on.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Yeah, he'll be a bottom pair defenseman one day but that's nothing to write home about.

Considering his draft position, that would make it a good pick. However, because the team, like the dimwits they can be, traded a 2nd rounder to move up to get him, he will be classified a disappointment just like Petrecki was when he never made it. And he was a late 1st and those are known to bust at a pretty good rate.

 

[magic school bus]

Considering his draft position, that would make it a good pick. However, because the team, like the dimwits they can be, traded a 2nd rounder to move up to get him, he will be classified a disappointment just like Petrecki was when he never made it. And he was a late 1st and those are known to bust at a pretty good rate.

Sure, if he has a long enough career. I think a lot of people feel this way -Mueller will be an NHL player, he might even be on a Championship team, but in the first round, trading up, in the year 2014 you should not be drafting this player. That's my stance.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Sure, if he has a long enough career. I think a lot of people feel this way -Mueller will be an NHL player, he might even be on a Championship team, but in the first round, trading up, in the year 2014 you should not be drafting this player. That's my stance.

I wouldn't have minded him being drafted if they had stood pat on their pick and didn't trade for Tyler Kennedy as well. Blowing four picks to move up a couple spots, get Kennedy, and bust on Boudreau was incredibly wasteful. I would've been perfectly content if Mueller fell to 20 or drafting Mantha or Rychel and then taking admittedly low chances on two other mid-to-late 2nd round picks turned prospects. I'm mostly just tired of wasting 2nd round picks on depth players and wasting picks on trading up at the draft. There are very few instances I would be okay with trading up in the draft. It's too much of a crapshoot to invest more and more assets doing that.

 

[magic school bus]

I wouldn't have minded him being drafted if they had stood pat on their pick and didn't trade for Tyler Kennedy as well. Blowing four picks to move up a couple spots, get Kennedy, and bust on Boudreau was incredibly wasteful. I would've been perfectly content if Mueller fell to 20 or drafting Mantha or Rychel and then taking admittedly low chances on two other mid-to-late 2nd round picks turned prospects. I'm mostly just tired of wasting 2nd round picks on depth players and wasting picks on trading up at the draft. There are very few instances I would be okay with trading up in the draft. It's too much of a crapshoot to invest more and more assets doing that.

Agreed. Unless you're trading up into the top-10, just keep your picks.

 

[ChompChomp]

The canes were a terrible test. Toronto level defense. Even so, judging anything on a back to back in less than 24 hours seems short sighted.

Agreed, and I would add that it was a dreaded third game in four nights and on the road, so the rest day in that four span is a travel day. Third game in four nights are usually brutal, and it showed Friday night.

If anything, IMHO, I'm concerned that Deboer's forechecking system will have the team exhausted come playoff time.

 

[KirbyDots]

Anyone else think DW isn't done this deadline?

 

[CupfortheSharks]

Agreed. Unless you're trading up into the top-10, just keep your picks.

The Sharks have had a lot of success in the past trading up to get their guy.

 

[hohosaregood]

Anyone else think DW isn't done this deadline?

I'm prepared to say bye to Tierney and/or Nieto.

 

[Gene Parmesan]

If anyone is moved its Smith and Brown or even Spaling.

 

[JoeThorntonsRooster]

I highly doubt they're going to get anybody else since they just got Spaling. If they had another move in the works, they would not have added his cap hit.

 

[OrrNumber4]

I wouldn't have minded him being drafted if they had stood pat on their pick and didn't trade for Tyler Kennedy as well. Blowing four picks to move up a couple spots, get Kennedy, and bust on Boudreau was incredibly wasteful. I would've been perfectly content if Mueller fell to 20 or drafting Mantha or Rychel and then taking admittedly low chances on two other mid-to-late 2nd round picks turned prospects. I'm mostly just tired of wasting 2nd round picks on depth players and wasting picks on trading up at the draft. There are very few instances I would be okay with trading up in the draft. It's too much of a crapshoot to invest more and more assets doing that.

I can probably agree with this line of thinking.

End of the day, Kennedy wasn't a great acquisition (might have been subtraction by addition, if anything), and moving up to take Mueller isn't at all the choice I'd make in hindsight. That is two seconds the Sharks could have saved.

Actually drafting Boudreau and Mueller...I see that as the cost of doing business.

 

[magic school bus]

The Sharks have had a lot of success in the past trading up to get their guy.

Do you have any examples outside of the top-10?

 

[OrrNumber4]

Do you have any examples outside of the top-10?

I can think of Couture and Hannan in the first round, and Couture was in the top-10 while Hannan was drafted nearly two decades ago. I guess the Sharks moved up to pick Nieto, Carle, and....Mcginn? I think Ehrhoff as well, though again, that is going back a while.

 

[Led Zappa]

Do you have any examples outside of the top-10?

Do you think moving up to get Roy was a poor decision?