Confirmed with Link: Shanahan, Dubas, Keefe all staying

[Dekes For Days]

It can't be a lie if it true.

It's not true.

Yes, that's what I posted. Pretty close to impossible it not impossible.

Pretty close to impossible is not impossible, but it's pretty close, and it's untrue. A GM/coach does not need to have played in the NHL to "know what it takes to win", as the back-to-back Cup champs (and many others) could attest to.

This is why you cloak your opinions. It's a lot easier to claim you never had a certain opinion once you're proven wrong.

My opinions are never cloaked. My opinions are quite clear, which is why it's weird that everything you say about me is so wildly inaccurate. I'm extremely consistent in my positions on things, and am always happy to elaborate or explain something to somebody who is confused. And while everybody is wrong once in a while, I'm correct the overwhelming majority of the time on here. It's not too hard when you let the facts guide you. For the record, I voted in the poll just as you did. Nothing cloaked. I just wasn't as wrong as you.

I posted analysis of a season I called less important, and explained that I was only looking at it because I knew you were using it to carry more weight than it should.
I wildly exaggerated their difference at ES by posting the numbers:

You posted exclusively the ES production of Nylander and exclusively one other cherry-picked player, in exclusively a season that you referred to as "almost not worth looking at". While doing so, you referred to a 0.2 ES P/60 difference as "significantly higher", but conveniently forgot to mention the 5.61 P/60 difference in their PP production rates that year. A player's proficiency on the PP is something that factors into contracts, and it's easy to see how one can be led to an incorrect belief that Nylander was overpaid if they don't consider relevant information such as this.

 

[Lightsol]

I had really hoped that this current Leafs' era was something like the 1960's era but in reality it's shaping up to be like the 1970's teams that only aspired to greatness. That 1970's teams were beloved by its loyal fanbase with Hall of Fame level stars but only won one 7-game playoff series during the entire 1970's (as underdogs to a younger better team, the New York Islanders). Crazy fact: the 1980's Leafs' teams won the same number of 7-game playoff series as the 1970's teams plus won another 5-game series.

I vaguely recall hearing about the consolation of respect earned after consecutive sweeps at the hands of the Montreal Canadiens in 1978 and 1979 as that team's era of contention came to a close.

Call me when the owner starts to dismantle the team because it's too expensive...

 

[Gary Nylund]

We’ve never lost, we just don’t win.

Early POTY candidate!

 

[capfit9]

Early POTY candidate!

 

[Dreakmur]

It's not true.

It would be pretty easy to verify.

Pretty close to impossible is not impossible, but it's pretty close, and it's untrue. A GM/coach does not need to have played in the NHL to "know what it takes to win", as the back-to-back Cup champs (and many others) could attest to.

Ok, so you agree with me, but want to make a completely separate point to make sure it clear that you support Dubas. Strange, but ok I guess.

My opinions are never cloaked. My opinions are quite clear, which is why it's weird that everything you say about me is so wildly inaccurate. I'm extremely consistent in my positions on things, and am always happy to elaborate or explain something to somebody who is confused. And while everybody is wrong once in a while, I'm correct the overwhelming majority of the time on here. It's not too hard when you let the facts guide you. For the record, I voted in the poll just as you did. Nothing cloaked. I just wasn't as wrong as you.

Your infatuation with Dubas is very clear. Everything he does is great and everyone who questions him is wrong… but your actual thoughts are always carefully couched.

You posted exclusively the ES production of Nylander and exclusively one other cherry-picked player, in exclusively a season that you referred to as "almost not worth looking at". While doing so, you referred to a 0.2 ES P/60 difference as "significantly higher", but conveniently forgot to mention the 5.61 P/60 difference in their PP production rates that year. A player's proficiency on the PP is something that factors into contracts, and it's easy to see how one can be led to an incorrect belief that Nylander was overpaid if they don't consider relevant information such as this.

Yes I posted a certain statical comparison, and explained why. I didn’t “forget” anything. I specifically explained why it was omitted.

You’re free to disagree, and since what I posted was negative towards Dubas, I knew that would be the case.

Nobody is overpaid. Every move Dubas has made is excellent. Sheldon Keefe is flawless…. And yet we still lose every year. Must be bad luck again!

 

[LilySmoov]

PP looks the same every year, regardless of who has the title of PP Special teams coach. Rumblings I’ve heard on the radio claim he has lots of input into the PP strategy. Ultimately it‘s his responsibility, so why wouldn't he be involved.

IMO, Getting them to execute is more than just motivating them. It’s figuring out how to beat the opposition and making adjustments in a particular game and in a series.

The Leafs have become an on the job training center - If the President, GM, and players all got a few years to cut their teeth, Keefe may as well get a few himself.

The PP this past year looked considerably different to the PP the year before. And you'll forgive me if I'm not immediately convinced by rumblings you've heard on the radio. But regardless, just for the sake of argument I'm happy to concede the point that, yeah, fine, he needs to be quicker making adjustments on the powerplay (and again, this is without looking at the underlying stats - a PP that's getting looks but isn't scoring I'd argue shouldn't need to be so quickly adjusted, that can easily be attributed to standard variance within a small sample size). Now the goalposts have shifted; the argument is no longer "he can't get them to execute/perform" it's "he's not adjusting quick enough" which is an entirely different argument and not the one I initially responded to.

 

[mikeyz]

How about disappointed? But if hockey is making you this irrationally angry, you should step away. It's not THAT big in the grand scheme of things.

I am disappointed. But, I am not irrationally angry.

It would be pretty easy to verify.



Ok, so you agree with me, but want to make a completely separate point to make sure it clear that you support Dubas. Strange, but ok I guess.



Your infatuation with Dubas is very clear. Everything he does is great and everyone who questions him is wrong… but your actual thoughts are always carefully couched.



Yes I posted a certain statical comparison, and explained why. I didn’t “forget” anything. I specifically explained why it was omitted.

You’re free to disagree, and since what I posted was negative towards Dubas, I knew that would be the case.

Nobody is overpaid. Every move Dubas has made is excellent. Sheldon Keefe is flawless…. And yet we still lose every year. Must be bad luck again!

Who are you quoting here?

 

[keonsbitterness]

Is "doomer" the new dismissive handwave for everyone capable of seeing obvious patterns?

Not sure, but it's funnier than boomer.

yes, they were elite in the regular season, and were elite against elite competition in the playoffs.

Being elite doesn't matter in the playoffs. Only winning does.

Who are you quoting here?

Someone you have on ignore?

 

[HockeyVirus]

How do you think we got Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Rielly, etc? We didn't get them with outstanding playoff success I'll tell you that. Being a bottom feeders and hitting on the top picks is the only thing this franchise has succeeded masterfully at in the past 10 years.

Mhm and how long did it take drafting 7th - 15th OA every season before that happened?

 

[keonsbitterness]

Mhm and how long did it take drafting 7th - 15th OA every season before that happened?

Too long.

 

[HockeyVirus]

Too long.

That's my point. Would rather win games and have nothing to show for it than to lose games and have nothing to show for it. Being a Leafs fan is 100x better than it was a decade ago

 

[rocketman588]

It can't be a lie if it true.



Yes, that's what I posted. Pretty close to impossible it not impossible. It's 100% accurate. There's no substitute for real experience.

Keep complaining that I'm making stuff up while you simultaneously make things up. It's a great look.



This is why you cloak your opinions. It's a lot easier to claim you never had a certain opinion once you're proven wrong.



I posted analysis of a season I called less important, and explained that I was only looking at it because I knew you were using it to carry more weight than it should.

I wildly exaggerated their difference at ES by posting the numbers:
In 2015-16, Pastrnak scored 25 points in 687 ES minutes.
In 2016-17, Nylander scored 35 points in 1106 ES minutes.

I also explained why I did that. When one guy gets a pile of PP time and the other guy doesn't, it's only comparatively relevant to evaluate their common ice time. You can also look at PP, but that's a completely different comparison. As I have said numerous times, there is an infinite number of ways that you can compare players. When negotiating a contract, it's on management to show comparables that justify a lower salary, and it's on the player agent to do the opposite. As a former player agent, Dubas hopefully knew exactly how it would work. He just did a poor job. I'm sorry that it doesn't jive with your Dubas worshipping.

Dekes who will be the first to roll out expected even strength/60 goals when it suits dubas suddenly doesn't get it when it's a stat that shows his boy is wrong

Very shocking

 

[All Mod Cons]

Is Dubie interviewing Bruce Cassidy and Barry Trotz? If not, then he is not doing his job.

We've already got a legend in the making. No need for anyone else.

 

[rocketman588]

Being elite doesn't matter in the playoffs. Only winning does.

You're not elite if your losing in round one

"We were elite"

As we got skull f***ed in 2 of 7 games. Took early 2-0 defecits in two others ( were very quick to explain losses as luck but then not talk about JTs goal that went off his leg)

Then trailed early in game 7 before losing

You're not elite if you trail in 5/7 games

 

[Racer88]

We aren't, we can think for ourselves.

Some of us can. Lol

 

[Racer88]

I see hyperbole is the flavour of the day.

They are either elite or dog feces. There's simply no middle.

Which is funny, cause the middle is probably where the team actually is and where it will end up.

I swear, the longer the off-season goes - and we're not even in the real off-season - the farther the two factions of fans get from each other. I've never seen a fan base so divisive....it's almost a reflection of society in general.


Or they lost, just not for the reasons that some attribute the losing to.

But don't let that stop you from piling on the straw-man arguments.

With the way this team is structured and the contract lengths and that 50% of the cap tied up in 4 forwards we can’t afford to be in the middle. If like you say that we are in the middle then everyone’s job should be up for question.

 

[Racer88]

Elite teams don’t lose in the first round 6 years in a row. We may have 2 elite players but clutch players or team players they are not

 

[Confucius]

that might be the dumbest logic pls think before posting stuff like this

The duMbest logic is you lost before I did So I must be better. Doesn’t seem to bother people a so so team beat a worse team and advavanced to the 2nd round so they mUst be better. Talk about dumb logic.

let’s put it even simpler for you. I loose to mike Tyson buT went the distance on Jan 1st. On Jan 1st you fought joe blow and won. You moved on to face Tyson in the 2 round of events but got ko’d in the 1st minute. Gee you muSt be better because you went to the 2nd round of eliminations. makes sense to you I guess.

Whichever team wins the Cup the team that came the closest to beating them is the 2nd best team. Why is that so hard to understand?

 

[Apex Predator]

rankings are arbitrary and reductive.

 

[capfit9]

The duMbest logic is you lost before I did So I must be better. Doesn’t seem to bother people a so so team beat a worse team and advavanced to the 2nd round so they mUst be better. Talk about dumb logic.

let’s put it even simpler for you. I loose to mike Tyson buT went the distance on Jan 1st. On Jan 1st you fought joe blow and won. You moved on to face Tyson in the 2 round of events but got ko’d in the 1st minute. Gee you muSt be better because you went to the 2nd round of eliminations. makes sense to you I guess.

Whichever team wins the Cup the team that came the closest to beating them is the 2nd best team. Why is that so hard to understand?

 

[Captain Crunch]

I think you need to read through the post and discussion chain that you are replying to again, because that is not what was said at all.

My bad, Dekes. However, I don’t think we can blame the refs for us losing the series. Kerfoot made 2 boneheaded plays that really hurt us. And was it our core that couldn’t come through when it really mattered the most? or was it the role players didn’t contribute enough?

 

[Dekes For Days]

Ok, so you agree with me

No, I don't agree that it's "pretty close to impossible" for a GM/coach to "know what it takes to win" unless they've played in the NHL. That is very clearly incorrect.

Your infatuation with Dubas is very clear. Everything he does is great and everyone who questions him is wrong… but your actual thoughts are always carefully couched.

My thoughts and opinions are always clear and well articulated, and my positions are consistent. The only one who seems to have an (in your words) "infatuation with Dubas" here is you. You literally can't have a discussion about anything without bringing him up and lying about how other people feel about him. I don't care about Dubas. I care about the Toronto Maple Leafs, and what's best for them.

I don't think everything he does is great. Questioning Dubas doesn't make one wrong, though being wrong does make one wrong, and some people here sure do like to be wrong about Dubas and misrepresent the things he's done and pretty much everything about him, and that's very distracting to those of us that want to have real hockey discussions. Just because somebody is able to look at things objectively, and consider context and nuance, it doesn't mean that that person is infatuated with Dubas. Just because somebody is capable of recognizing and understanding the good that Dubas has done for this team, instead of just raging about playoff outcomes and pointing at incorrect reasons to try and justify counterproductive actions, it doesn't mean that they think he's infallible. It's such a ridiculous strawman.

Yes I posted a certain statical comparison, and explained why.

Let's recap. You came in quoting me, and incorrectly stated that Nylander was overpaid (post #1869). You then incorrectly stated what his contract is (post #1869). You then brought up Pastrnak as your exclusive cherry-picked comparable (post #1907). You then attempted to justify your incorrect stance on Nylander's contract by comparing his raw points to your cherry-picked player's raw points, incorrectly adjusted and contextualized, in exclusively their final season (post #1923).

When it was pointed out how improper that was, you then switched entirely to comparing exclusively the even strength scoring rates of Nylander and exclusively this one cherry-picked player Pastrnak, in exclusively one season that you had previously referred to as "almost not worth looking at" (post #1950). While doing so, you completely excluded the PP and the significant 5.61 P/60 difference in their production in that game state that year, instead choosing to exaggerate a 0.2 P/60 difference at ES (post #1950).

This is not even close to proper contract valuation, though it does show us how one could come to the incorrect conclusion that Nylander is overpaid if they choose to cherry pick while excluding the majority of relevant information.

Nobody is overpaid. Every move Dubas has made is excellent. Sheldon Keefe is flawless…. And yet we still lose every year. Must be bad luck again!

That's certainly a unique opinion you have. I don't personally share it.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Dekes who will be the first to roll out expected even strength/60 goals

Not only is "expected even strength/60 goals" not what was being discussed in the post you quoted (or even the right terminology), it's also not something that I (or really anybody) "rolls out" in contract comparisons or individual player discussions. In fact, even strength expected goals for per 60 is largely referenced as a team stat, or at the very least a line stat, and is rarely if ever used exclusively. Unless the discussion is about even strength offensive generation specifically, one usually wouldn't want to do what the individual you quoted did and completely exclude relevant game states and information.

 

[SprDaVE]

For whatever it's worth, Laurence Gilman is also staying with the Leafs despite earlier reports he was leaving the team, per Siegel (confirmed by the Leafs).

Paliafito is confirmed to leave though.

 

[Dekes For Days]

My bad, Dekes. However, I don’t think we can blame the refs for us losing the series.

The post wasn't really about blaming the refs either, for the record. That said, I understand there's this stigma around pointing at refs, and if it was just a matter of the penalty disparity in the series, or if we got screwed by refs but it didn't directly alter the outcome, it would be one thing, but when you're up against a potential dynasty and an extremely abnormal number of absolutely horrible mistakes by a factor external to the team directly leads to losses in two consecutive series-defining games, that's some relevant context and it's okay to acknowledge what happened.

I understand that patience is wearing thin, and that's not to say that "we are perfect, everybody did everything perfectly, there's no other factor that impacted our result, and nothing can be improved on or altered moving forward", but let's call a spade a spade. The sky is not falling. We are not far away. We were good enough to win against a team that has 2 cups with a similar build and is currently on their way to the Stanley Cup finals again this year, and a series of incorrect calls/non calls in multiple series-defining moments was a primary factor in the outcome that occurred, that still only occurred by the slimmest of margins.

I'm not sure why so many were able to acknowledge the impact for similar situations in the past (like the infamous Vegas-San Jose 5 min major), but seem so opposed to acknowledging the impact here. You can want them to have overcome it, while still acknowledging the abnormalities that occurred.