Still better than playing in lower or junior leagues. He's playing for one of the top 5 teams in KHL as an 18 year old, alone that is rare there.
Prospect Info: Shakir Mukhamadullin (#20 pick - 2020 draft)
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Still better than playing in lower or junior leagues. He's playing for one of the top 5 teams in KHL as an 18 year old, alone that is rare there.
I'm sorry, what does a forward prospect have to do with a defense prospect?
BurntToast
Registered User
I don’t understand ppl’s gripes over this pick. I guess he wasn’t a media darling, but Russians rarely are. Everyone believed the third pick was going to be the Devils taking a chance on a more risky prospect. It’s not Hendricks, or Gunler and everyone is freaking out, but I feel it starts with media coverage. BLM but we still hate the Russians. Someone thought Amirov was a reach for the Leafs, what?
Evgeny Oliker
Registered User
My point was actually that his production is good considering his ice time
devilos
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The Wumpus
bottomless pit supervisor
Some people hear a name a few times before the draft, and get fixated on that name and upset if we take anyone else. You see it in the later rounds too. Every year in the fifth round: Who are these guys?? It's like we're throwing darts at a board!!
that's how ended up liking mukhamadullin.
@StevenToddIves was raving about him early in the season and his description of him sounded like a player i would like to see play for the devils.
I have absolutely no problem with drafting KHL players or Russians. I do think this was a reach, but reaches sometimes pay off. But I'm rarely going to like drafting a defenseman in the first round and that shift-by-shift video didn't help win me over. He's big, he can skate, and he can definitely handle the puck - his teammates trust him to carry it. I know it's a men's league and he's only 18 but I didn't love a lot of the other stuff I saw. There's plenty of time for him to develop those things but I am not convinced those are things players develop past this age.
He can skate, he's got reach, he's eventually going to be a big body when he fills out, and he appears to be able to move the puck and shoot. If he can make a solid first pass, he's got all the tools to play in the NHL assuming he can move the puck and pass at a reasonably quick pace. Hopefully he plays with confidence once he doesn't have to play against men that are older and more experienced all the time. I don't expect Hedman level play from him, but if he can split the difference between Hedman and Mueller he will be at least a solid NHL defender.
Forge
Blissfully Mediocre
You still have to give him credit for putting up the points though.
The only problem is that while the production is nice, it's not really the issue a lot of people had with him
Poppy Whoa Sonnet
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That alone pretty much justifies the pick imo, without knowing exactly what the trade down options were. Grans and Wallinder are the other two guys I read about that I had ahead of him with that combination of skills, and they went very early 2nd. It's a coveted package that you can pretty much only get these days by being lucky in the draft with an early pick on a raw prospect.
Sure it's a "reach" and there's bust potential but he wouldn't have been there in the 3rd and he's got a high enough ceiling that I can justify the price. Hope he reaches his full potential!
Wow. That's a pretty wide goalpost there.
that's how ended up liking mukhamadullin.
@StevenToddIves was raving about him early in the season and his description of him sounded like a player i would like to see play for the devils.
Mukhamadullin was an interesting case study in "when the draft takes place". Obviously, every year it takes place in June. This year, due to the pandemic, it did not.
If the 2020 draft was held in October 2019, nobody would have questioned Mukhamadullin as a first-round pick. He was a big mobile kid with a bomb of a shot who had made a KHL roster as a 17 year old. In March, Mukhamadullin would have been a stretch for the second round -- sparse playing time clearly f***ed with his confidence to the point that he was just looking lost for his two to three shifts per game. But. the draft was held in October -- when the KHL season had already begun -- and in increased ice time for Ufa, Mukhamadullin has looked very, very good.
The draft is a funny thing. Many people in the media who were criticizing the Mukhamadullin pick had not seen a single shred of his video from the 2020-21 season, which I believe was already almost 10 games deep when the draft was held. So their negative opinions were holdovers from the last time they'd watched him, which was way back in January or whatever.
Now again, I would not have taken Mukhamadullin at #20. I watched him last year in September and was very high on him, so I continued to monitor him all year long. Early in the draft process, I had Mukhamadullin as a top 15 pick. But a poor draft-eligible season left him lapped in my opinion by LD who were either dominant in 2019-20 (Jake Sanderson) or simply very, very good (Ryan O'Rourke). But the talent is certainly there -- otherwise he would have never been in my top 15 to drop down my rankings in the first place. By the time I completed my final top 100 rankings in October, Mukhamadullin had played well in his first couple of KHL games, but it was not enough for me to feel comfortable ranking him in the first or early second round.
Psychology is a funny thing when it comes to our convictions as sports analysts. Some of the players who the Devils were criticized for not drafting ahead of Mukhamadullin have the same darned problems as Mukhamadullin and less upside. If that sounds absurd, it's because it is absurd. But to me, people write once that they like a prospect and then seek to justify it over and over again, and people write once that they do not like a prospect and do the same thing. Everyone is so desperate to know everything and be right all the time that they refuse to be open-minded and flexible -- even very good and respected writers.
In his draft review, Will Scouch -- who is a tremendous prospect analyst -- explained he did not hate the pick of Mukhamadullin, he just hated the fact that the Devils did not trade down and took him too early at #20. This is a legitimate opinion -- and maybe this is my bias because I have the same opinion. But Scouch justified his opinion by mentioning how lost Mukhamadullin looked defensively in the KHL last year, and then stated that the Devils would have been better off taking a surer bet like Wallinder or Grans.
I had to rewind and watch that part again, because it just shocked me. Even the biggest supporters of Wallinder and Grans have criticized how awful they were defensively in 2019-20! All three of these defensemen are not players who you are drafting based on a dominant performance in their draft-eligible season, but rather because of a perceived "high upside" of being a 20-minute NHL defender. These are three big kids who can skate. Wallinder is the best-skating defenseman in the draft, while Mukhamadullin and Grans also add very intriguing offensive tool kits. But defensively? They were all godawful last season, and there's no two ways about it.
At some point, I wasn't even thinking about Mukhamadullin anymore. I was thinking about what fools all of the draft analysts are -- specifically myself, but also everyone else. People pay attention to us strictly because we have a great wealth of knowledge about a subject they have great interest in. And our reputations are won and lost by the strength of our convictions. So I think the natural inclination is to try to constantly justify what we've already said, when we should have more open minds and be quicker to admit when things change.
This year the Tampa Bay Lightning won the Stanley Cup. Their best forward was -- without a doubt in anyone's mind -- Brayden Point. Point was drafted in 2014 -- I remember it well because I was still writing on-line draft articles at the time. I had Point ranked #29 overall, and as the second round came to a close, I was shocked that no one had drafted him. He was my only first-round ranking still available entering the third round. When the Devils stepped up to the podium at #71 overall I sounded like a broken record -- "Point! Please Point! Please Point!" The Devils passed on him, the Lightning took him at #78 and the rest is history.
Am I a genius for this? Um, well in 2014 I also had Point ranked below such names as Connor Bleackley and Nikita Scherbak. So, obviously not. Everyone who has every done what I do and what Will Scouch does and what Corey Pronman does can look back in the very recent past and see what stupid mistakes we have made. My guess is it's even worse for an NHL scout. But all we can do is say what we would have done in the same situation if we were the ones making the decisions.
My criticism of the Mukhamadullin pick was two-fold -- 1)I feel the Devils should have traded down, especially with the hindsight knowledge that Washington was attempting to trade up to draft Hendrix Lapierre; and 2)I still feel the Devils made this pick because they really wanted a defenseman with one of their three first-round picks, and it is my conviction that Mukhamadullin was not the highest rated player on their board but rather the highest rated blueliner.
However, we have to also realize that Mukhamadullin has a ton of upside -- more upside than players like Wallinder and Grans who the Devils were criticized for not taking at #20, and he's just as much of a work in progress defensively. So, now I'm just hoping that I was wrong, and that Mukhamadullin really deserved to go #20 overall, or at least in that ballpark.
I think this is going to be my final Mukhamadullin post, because I'm not sure what else I can say about it. An ideal pick? No. The worst possible pick? Also, no -- I think Columbus proved that very soon after at #21 overall. Last night, I watched video from Mukhamadullin this year, and I have to say -- though he's still certainly a project -- his upside looks quite impressive. But I could also dig up some video from February where I wondered if he would even be considered a serious NHL prospect. But ultimately, I think we need to measure our own convictions against a sliding scale of change, and not get caught up in every wave of public opinion. This is to say that if the Devils took Wallinder at #20, it would have been applauded by a consensus of draft writers who railed against the Mukhamadullin pick. But Mukhamadullin has arguably the best shot of any D drafted in 2020 while Wallinder has arguably the worst. Mukhamadullin is a better passer, has better hands, is more physical and more competitive. They both clearly have problems with positioning and decision-making which you hope will improve. But why would Wallinder have been considered a good pick at #20 and Mukhamadullin a mistake? I literally have no idea. I wouldn't have taken either that high, not with names like Lapierre and Perreault and Khusnutdinov still on the board.
Time will tell. I hope some of you guys remember these posts so you can make fun of me where I was wrong and applaud me where I was correct a few years down the line. Right now, I'm just hoping the pandemic ends so I don't have to wait until October for next year's draft!
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- Apr 20, 2005
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Like @StevenToddIves, she too seems astonished the Devils didn't trade down if they wanted Shakir. Based on what she is saying about his current season, he's got many years of work ahead of him if he ever makes it.
Zajacs Bowl Cut
Lets Go Baby
trading down is never an exact science though, especially when you don't have a pick for ~60 more picks
It was probably a reach but if they targeted him, I don't have any issues with it. Especially considering it was their 3rd of 3 first round picks.
It was probably a reach but if they targeted him, I don't have any issues with it. Especially considering it was their 3rd of 3 first round picks.
I noticed you aren't saying you disagree. Hopefully it was obvious that I was exaggerating to make a point. There is a fair amount of room between great and failure where a decent to very good NHL player can reside. I used those comparable because they sort of encompass the same sort of player as Mukhamadullin in that they are both big rangy mobile defenders.
Mueller is a bottom pair guy who is held back a bit by timidity and held back more by not being able to move the puck or pass it with anything other than wide open ice in front of him. The few times Mueller has shown some fire he's actually looked ok but it's only a short burst and then he reverts back. Mueller has a big shot when he ever gets to unleash it but that is rare. Hedman is the same sort of defenseman who can move the puck and pass it and play confidently. He's active and physical and obviously successful. I wonder what Mueller would be like if you put Coleman's personality in him.
Mukhamadullin can land anywhere between these two NHL extremes but my expectation is a second pair defender that at times can look excellent and at times leave you wanting more. Maybe a Severson type of defender? At 20 that's probably a decent pick when all is said and done.
Any issues if we make fun of you in the interim while we wait for the Mukhamadullin pick to pan out? Not related to the pick or the player, just in general.
Devils731
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- Jun 23, 2008
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Agreed, she thinks he was drafted higher than he needed to be.
On the other hand, we don’t know what the internal discussions were. Would it be worth trading down 5 spots and picking up a 3rd round pick and then possibly have another team draft Shakir? If you had him on a tier above all the other defenders then the risk is probably not worth it.
Devils also may have felt a few other teams also were tuned into Shakir and the risk/reward of moving just wasn’t worth it, even if the Devils thought 99% of the world would feel he was drafted too high.
I'm from New Jersey, dude. Every time I get together with my high school buddies, it's basically a competition of who can make fun of the other dudes the most and the best. Fire away.
if I still lived in the area it would be great to arrange a 4o years of age and over message board get together where ever you are tending bar. I think it would be a great time and we'd all be really drunk. My wife would be pissed.
If I was an NHL team, I would hire someone just to analyze the very things you're discussing. I'd have a bright young person analyzing the draft tendencies of the other 30 NHL teams and general managers, weighing them against the consensus rankings and organizational needs to get a solid hypothesis of who will be drafted when and by whom.
Of course, this is an imperfect goal. No one can predict when Columbus is going to draft a kid like Yegor Chinakhov -- who might not have been drafted at all through all 7 rounds by the other 30 teams -- at #21 overall. But you get an idea, and that gives you a better opportunity to maximize your assets.
Let's play pretend. Let's say that Ottawa -- loaded with picks -- really wanted a player at #20. Let's say they offered the Devils the #28 and #61 picks to move up to #20. To me, it's a front office's job to know that Mukhamadullin -- if that's the guy you really want -- is extremely unlikely to be picked between #21 and #27. This would have gotten the player the team apparently wanted anyway, along with the opportunity to also draft another high-upside LD in Jeremie Poirier or Daemon Hunt at #61. And if Mukhamadullin got picked at #27 by Anaheim, is it really that tragic? The Devils could have taken a similar chance on a Helge Grans, or taken a safer D like Ryan O'Rourke or Brock Faber, or gone for a high upside forward like Khusnutdinov or Perreault. None of this would have been tragic, and it would have been a maximization of the Devils assets.
That's my solution. Pay some bright young mind to analyze draft data to an absurd degree, to give you an idea of what will happen and what's worth what on draft day. I called 9 picks correctly on my mock draft -- which is as good as anyone in the business. So, it's an imperfect science, at best. But all of the kids I had in my first round were taken in the ballpark of where I had them. My biggest miss was Helge Grans -- who I had going at #15 to Toronto but fell to Los Angeles in the second round. Toronto would up taking Rodion Amirov, whom I had going to Montreal with the very next pick. Humorously enough, my mock draft had LA taking Mukhamadullin in the second round -- so I had the right team taking a high-upside D in the right round, just the wrong guy. Who knows? Maybe if the Devils take Grans at #20 instead of Mukhamadullin, the Kings take Mukhamadullin instead of Grans in the 2nd round.
For the worst failure in the draft since 2018 when Minnesota took Filip Johansson in the first round, Columbus took Chinakhov at #21 overall. Why are these both disastrous picks? Because, in order to maximize assets, a team needs to pay attention to the other 30 NHL teams, not stick a middle finger up at them and think they're so much smarter. Minnesota was a wreck because they had a lousy GM who got rid of their better scouts so that his own (highly unqualified) son could have a plum job running the Wild scouting department. But with Columbus, it's just unexplainable. This was a team with only 5 draft picks one year after they only had 3 draft picks. They are desperate for prospect depth. If the Blue Jackets had as much forethought and strategy as hubris and arrogance, they would have traded down into the second round, gained two more picks, still gotten Chinakhov and added more talent as well. No leader in any position of leadership should live in a vacuum where they think they are too smart to listen to anyone else -- it's a recipe for failure. Blue Jackets GM Jarmo Kekkalainen is a very smart man, but he'd be better off trying to become even smarter than in revelling in his own smartness. He really kneecapped his own franchise in the draft this year.
NHL teams should be at the forefront of change, not begrudgingly accept it. If you can afford to pay an entire analytics department to essentially process information essentially available to everyone, why not hire one person to collect draft dossiers on opposition tendencies, needs, and consensus rankings to get an idea of how the most important day of your future prospect development system will go? It seems like a no-brainer to me. I think that's the answer. I talked to John Paddock about it for an hour once, back when he was with the Philadelphia Flyers front office. Mr. Paddock loved the idea, but he said he'd have a tough time getting it past the rest of the front office. When I asked him why, he just said that most people in NHL front offices have a tough time admitting there's something they don't know that someone else might. We both had a laugh about it, but the fact is there was truth behind Mr. Paddock's clever statement.
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Hockey Rush
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- Feb 22, 2018
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I took him 65th Overall in a fantasy hockey league in our 2020 Draft. I looked like a G when he was taken at 20th lol. I definitely love his raw abilities but he definitely has to round out his game. I had him more in the 35-45 range. Even that may have been a reach but if other NHL clubs liked him. I think you did ok taking him where you did. Kid has top-pair upside and that may not be the case with any other D taken in the first aside from possibly Sanderson and Drysdale.
If you have 3 x 1sts you can take a hail mary with one. I love the Mercer pick at 18 and I totally understand the logic behind taking Holtz at 7. You already have 2 great playmakers in Hughes and Hilscher. Eventually, you need a scoring winger to complement the team. Not sure a Rossi would be ideal in that spot. You could make an argument for Perfetti but I'm fine with Holtz. Quinn went earlier than most expected I don't suspect he would have gone 7 in any realistic scenario. (even tho i had him in the 7-8 range on my draft sheet).
devilsfan35
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Guadana
Registered User
When I typed it i didn`t expecte that 5th D will be selected in first round. Ok i did. but what did i mean - third best D will not Guhle or Schneider. Kid has top-pair upside, Guhle and Schneider don`t.
Now i`m higher on Holtz because he will have two potential best centers in the leauge. What? I didnt like his decision making? F#ck me, guy is awesome.
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R8Devs
1-5-6-12
Shakir Mukhamadullin, defender of HC Salavat Yulaev: - I am very pleased with the club that chose me! New Jersey is one of the best organizations and teams in the league. I am happy to be part of their family!
- Did you follow the draft?
- Woke up early in the morning before the draft. I followed every pick, I am very happy for all Russian players, and especially for Rodion Amirov. I was very worried. To be honest, I didn’t expect to be chosen under the 20th number, my heart beat very quickly. I was delighted and realized that in a couple of hours I was already for training (smiles).
- Whose congratulations were the first?
- Since the draft took place in Canada, the broadcast was a little late. Simultaneously with the words that I was drafted, agents from Canada called and congratulated, and then relatives and friends.
- What will change for you now?
- I think that there will be an incentive to train even more and work on yourself. And so now all forces and thoughts are directed to the current season, the goal is the Gagarin Cup!
This is the google translated version of the interview on his KHL club's site Шакир Мухамадуллин: «Не ожидал, что выберут под 20-м номером» - Новости - ХК Салават Юлаев
- Did you follow the draft?
- Woke up early in the morning before the draft. I followed every pick, I am very happy for all Russian players, and especially for Rodion Amirov. I was very worried. To be honest, I didn’t expect to be chosen under the 20th number, my heart beat very quickly. I was delighted and realized that in a couple of hours I was already for training (smiles).
- Whose congratulations were the first?
- Since the draft took place in Canada, the broadcast was a little late. Simultaneously with the words that I was drafted, agents from Canada called and congratulated, and then relatives and friends.
- What will change for you now?
- I think that there will be an incentive to train even more and work on yourself. And so now all forces and thoughts are directed to the current season, the goal is the Gagarin Cup!
This is the google translated version of the interview on his KHL club's site Шакир Мухамадуллин: «Не ожидал, что выберут под 20-м номером» - Новости - ХК Салават Юлаев
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