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OT: Severe Weather Discussion III

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I still think the most likely landfall point is between Riverhead and Montauk Point, but really the entire area is still in the area of concern in terms of where it comes ashore

west of the low is where you will get the heaviest rain, East the strongest winds
 
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Beacon Isles said:
Thanks... looking so forward to driving down Sat and back Mon, and spending most of the weekend watching the rain!
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At least you shouldn't die? :help:

Do you always come down this way during the summer or is this your first time?
 
Tres Peleches said:
I still think the most likely landfall point is between Riverhead and Montauk Point, but really the entire area is still in the area of concern in terms of where it comes ashore

west of the low is where you will get the heaviest rain, East the strongest winds
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I concur with this
 
Tres Peleches said:
I still think the most likely landfall point is between Riverhead and Montauk Point, but really the entire area is still in the area of concern in terms of where it comes ashore

west of the low is where you will get the heaviest rain, East the strongest winds
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Well I am about 15 minutes west of Riverhead so not sure what that means for us
 
Tres Peleches said:
I still think the most likely landfall point is between Riverhead and Montauk Point, but really the entire area is still in the area of concern in terms of where it comes ashore

west of the low is where you will get the heaviest rain, East the strongest winds
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If we’re talking mid Nassau, what could be the highest gust with this storm?

Again, the information from the few on this thread is outstanding. I come to this continuing thread during winter season.
 
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lorwood said:
Well I am about 15 minutes west of Riverhead so not sure what that means for us
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It depends on the exact track and strength of the storm but sustained winds can be approaching 60mph with gusts to 75mph and heavy rain. If it goes further east that will tick down some
 
Nosebleed40 said:
If we’re talking mid Nassau, what could be the highest gust with this storm?

Again, the information from the few on this thread is outstanding. I come to this continuing thread during winter season.
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All this is storm track depending but generally 30 to 50 mph winds with some gusts to 70mph, and a lot of heavy rain and flooding. More rain west, more wind east is the general theme I'd say
 
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lorwood said:
Well I am about 15 minutes west of Riverhead so not sure what that means for us
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Unfortunately we won’t have a clear picture until tomorrow probably. Even then, tropical systems tend to “wobble” as they move, meaning they’ll move from point A to point B, but it will jog left, right, left etc. as it does so

My best guess is that you end up just west of the storm’s center, which would mean some VERY heavy rain and, if in the eye-wall, some of the stronger winds

your area is very much in line to receive a hard hit

With that being said, ALOT can change between now and tomorrow night. How strong it gets over the next 12 hours may directly impact where it tracks come tomorrow night

Everyone please keep abreast of the latest. If we’re lucky it’ll kick East and spare the island the worst winds, but as it sits right now no one should be lowering their guard
 
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Thanks all for the updates .. this is a great thread .. I just put on CBS channel 2 New York . If Lonnie is not wearing his sports jacket and has his sleeves rolled up we are in for a doozie...
 
Tres Peleches said:
Unfortunately we won’t have a clear picture until tomorrow probably. Even then, tropical systems tend to “wobble” as they move, meaning they’ll move from point A to point B, but it will jog left, right, left etc. as it does so

My best guess is that you end up just west of the storm’s center, which would mean some VERY heavy rain and, if in the eye-wall, some of the stronger winds

your area is very much in line to receive a hard hit

With that being said, ALOT can change between now and tomorrow night. How strong it gets over the next 12 hours may directly impact where it tracks come tomorrow night

Everyone please keep abreast of the latest. If we’re lucky it’ll kick East and spare the island the worst winds, but as it sits right now no one should be lowering their guard
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Great. I live in the central pine barrens amongst some of the tallest trees on the island all currently in full leaf. They named it Longwood for a reason
 
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How often do they run these models? When do you think we'll get a clearer picture?

Also how much rain we talking west of the low point? I'm in Merrick and my basement has gotten water in the past during stretches a really heavy rain...
 
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Henri is still on track to make landfall along the coast of long island. Computer models are still frustratingly divergent in their solutions which will likely continue until landfall unfortunately. Landfall is depicted anywhere from long Beach to Montauk or even rhode island. Obviously that will impact the tangible weather we experience. I continue to focus on the Hamptons area as the most likely landfall spot as a strong tropical storm. Points west of landfall will experience very heavy rains and gusty winds of 30 to 60mph with higher gusts, points east will see less rain, more wind and more storm surge flooding along the coast. I'm expecting widespread power outages near the point of landfall....impacts begin late tonight, landfall by tomorrow afternoon
 
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I see that tonight is a full moon. Last night we got a storm surge warning covering today and the next 24 hours. The similarities to Sandy are starting to hit home for me. I hope the folks on the East End, Rhode Island and Southern Massachusetts are taking precautions.
 
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Been shitting my pants about this since yesterday, and the gas savages are already out in full force.

If it makes a direct hit of let’s say mid Suffolk, the island will be thrashed worse than sandy. It’s cloudy, but extremely calm right now over in EQ.
 
Skip To My Lou said:
I'm going to be out in East Hampton next week, so it should be interesting. Wouldn't be surprised if we may be without power the whole week lol.
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I live in East Hampton, whole house generator for a reason lol

Also two hours waits for gas. Took me a half hour to go three miles. I didn’t bothering filling up, I have a half tank, not like I’m going anywhere haha

got reports that stations are already running out.
 
Good luck everyone.

I can't wait until this thing is gone. The will it/won't it hit is exhausting.

Looks like I'll be on the right side but enough east that we should escape flooding but may lose power. They are saying gusts between 35-50 mph.

Technically I am in Boston but I live in the southernmost part aka the who the hell knows area.
 
lorwood said:
Looks like weather guys are starting to back off on storm. Tracking further East and much weaker at landfall
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It’s a tough forecast, no doubt. I do not envy those who have to try to forecast this as their job… thankfully that ain’t me anymore lol

Anywhere from Riverhead to Block Island is where I still think it goes… obviously that’s a big difference for a lot of people since strongest wind and heaviest rain will be closer to the center
 
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