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Seth Jones: Reality Check

Taze em said:
How are Jones’ teammates at 5v5? Why does bedard get the “he has bums to play with” and Jones doesn’t.
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I agree with this. He's overpaid by $2M but given the premium of a minute eating RHD, I can deal with it. With a rising cap and a dearth of talent at his position, I bet if he were a free agent this summer, he would probably get a deal of around 5 X $10M.

But even if he wouldn't, and if some of you claim he could only get $6M a year on the open market, I would be surprised if his contract prevents the Blackhawks from doing anything they would want to do. Within the next 5 seasons, they're going to have a ton of players on ELCs and who knows what the cap would be by the end of the deal?

Now he is around the age of Seabrook when his game went to hell. Hopefully that doesn't happen with Jones until after his contract ends.
 
Taze em said:
How are Jones’ teammates at 5v5? Why does bedard get the “he has bums to play with” and Jones doesn’t.
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Jones is a vet, being paid 9.5mil and no one is claiming Bedard is a top player at his position. He shouldn't need help to make himself better, he should be making his teammates better, but he doesn't. I was simply putting those stats there to combat your stats that make it seem like he's good offensively. He's not.
 
a big and fast d man with draft pedigree being played 24+ minutes a night by a team nearly devoid of nhl d talent tells you nothing about what he does with that time. when you actually put it all together, in the 12 years he's been in the league, for every seth jones season there were 40 defensemen with seasons scoring more points per minute than jones on average.

it's also very funny how far the goal posts move every single time we have this conversation where someone says some damn fool thing like "seth jones is one of the best players at his position", gets pushback, and has to retreat and pretend that he was only arguing the proposition "seth jones is not bad by nhl standards", which is far more agreeable.
 
statswatcher said:
a big and fast d man with draft pedigree being played 24+ minutes a night by a team nearly devoid of nhl d talent tells you nothing about what he does with that time. when you actually put it all together, in the 12 years he's been in the league, for every seth jones season there were 40 defensemen with seasons scoring more points per minute than jones on average.

it's also very funny how far the goal posts move every single time we have this conversation where someone says some damn fool thing like "seth jones is one of the best players at his position", gets pushback, and has to retreat and pretend that he was only arguing the proposition "seth jones is not bad by nhl standards", which is far more agreeable.
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How about we have the conversation stick to this question: Is having Seth Jones on the Blackhawks with his contract a detriment to the team?

Then the goalposts should not move.
 
MHO said:
Is having Seth Jones on the Blackhawks with his contract a detriment to the team?
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i wouldn't say so. of course it depends on what exactly you mean. my position is that the benefit receieved this year and particularly going forward by keeping him is outweighed by the benefits of trading him at his highest value in years aged 30 for younger pieces (especially good young scoring forwards). i'd say i think it is highly likely for him to regress into an outright detriment by the time this team is competitive.
 
statswatcher said:
i wouldn't say so. of course it depends on what exactly you mean. my position is that the benefit receieved this year and particularly going forward by keeping him is outweighed by the benefits of trading him at his highest value in years aged 30 for younger pieces (especially good young scoring forwards). i'd say i think it is highly likely for him to regress into an outright detriment by the time this team is competitive.
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Wow a nuanced opinion on HFB. Well done sir. I would agree that Jones with his contact is not currently a detriment to the Hawks. But that doesn't mean that I wouldn't be open to trading him if they could receive assets that could potentially be more valuable.

It all depends on what they could realistically obtain combined with what retention would be needed. All I know is retention for 5 years is a long time. With the cap going up as fast as it is, I'll be curious to see how many teams will be nearly against it every year.
 
MHO said:
Wow a nuanced opinion on HFB. Well done sir. I would agree that Jones with his contact is not currently a detriment to the Hawks. But that doesn't mean that I wouldn't be open to trading him if they could receive assets that could potentially be more valuable.

It all depends on what they could realistically obtain combined with what retention would be needed. All I know is retention for 5 years is a long time. With the cap going up as fast as it is, I'll be curious to see how many teams will be nearly against it every year.
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yeah like i said in one of my earlier posts in this thread, i wouldn't pay to get rid of him, and retaining without proper return would be tantamount to doing that.
 
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MHO said:
How about we have the conversation stick to this question: Is having Seth Jones on the Blackhawks with his contract a detriment to the team?

Then the goalposts should not move.
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Broissoit may never play a game for the Blackhawks collect six and a half million dollars and it's not a detriment to anything but Wirtz corps bottom line. No contracts this year mean anything.
 
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I'm assuming the answer is yes but would ya'll entertain moving Seth+ for Dobson assuming Lou would be interested in a player with term that can help them compete and also obviously Seth has to want to move...Dobson fits the timeline and Hawks have the cap to pay him whatever he wants...This is all of course assuming we want to keep Seth's cap hit, because then its essentially just a swap +/- a few mil...we obviously have Lev and Rinzel coming but you potentially add Schaefer and Dobson to that group its the best young crop in the league by a lot
 
Toews2Bickell said:
I'm assuming the answer is yes but would ya'll entertain moving Seth+ for Dobson assuming Lou would be interested in a player with term that can help them compete and also obviously Seth has to want to move...Dobson fits the timeline and Hawks have the cap to pay him whatever he wants...This is all of course assuming we want to keep Seth's cap hit, because then its essentially just a swap +/- a few mil...we obviously have Lev and Rinzel coming but you potentially add Schaefer and Dobson to that group its the best young crop in the league by a lot
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Gonna have to be a pretty big plus.
 
Taze em said:
In this thread: Armchair GMs explain why it’s better to have 3% less cap dollars per season entering our contention window so we can offload a top 10 RHD in the NHL. Sharp cookies.
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Even if he is a top 10 RD right now will he still be a top 10 RD (or even anywhere close) by the time the team is ready to enter that contention window? He'll be 33 going in to year 3 of his remaining contract and that's probably the earliest you can hope for this team to start contending.
 
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Toews2Bickell said:
I'm assuming the answer is yes but would ya'll entertain moving Seth+ for Dobson assuming Lou would be interested in a player with term that can help them compete and also obviously Seth has to want to move...Dobson fits the timeline and Hawks have the cap to pay him whatever he wants...This is all of course assuming we want to keep Seth's cap hit, because then its essentially just a swap +/- a few mil...we obviously have Lev and Rinzel coming but you potentially add Schaefer and Dobson to that group its the best young crop in the league by a lot
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If Seth waives he's going to be very particular to where, and likely only for a team that is in contention. I don't see him waiving for a team like the Islanders who are behind 3 or so teams for the last WC spot currently. I also can't see him playing well for someone like Roy with how fired up he gets compared to how relaxed Jones can be.

BUT if they could get him to waive for the Islanders I'd be much more interested in a deal with Jones for Barzal. No clue if they'd be open to going down that road, though or what other pieces for either side would need to be involved.
 
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the risk with holding onto Seth is that his play falls from ~1.5m above his fair value to a lot more and his value becomes worthless even with retainment, Seabrook status, and the risk of that happening is likeliest when the team's cap space will be the most valuable, if that risk fell during this teardown period sure just let the contract expire if the price/return to move it isnt fair but that risk will fall during years they will be trying to improve the roster/keep core pieces

GIADF said:
If Seth waives he's going to be very particular to where, and likely only for a team that is in contention. I don't see him waiving for a team like the Islanders who are behind 3 or so teams for the last WC spot currently. I also can't see him playing well for someone like Roy with how fired up he gets compared to how relaxed Jones can be.

BUT if they could get him to waive for the Islanders I'd be much more interested in a deal with Jones for Barzal. No clue if they'd be open to going down that road, though or what other pieces for either side would need to be involved.
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I don't either but he did play in CBJ all them years so never know, but yeah feels like it will be COL/DAL/FLA etc type team that will interest him in moving, could easily see Lou being interested in Seth though...Barzal for Seth, absolutely...I just thought of Seth for Dobson swap because Lou is always trying to compete and he's a natural replacement for Dobson going the other way in a deal, plus he'd have term left
 
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I get not liking Seth Jones....Stunley overpaid to acquire him and even as a pending UFA should have maxed out at 8-8.5 per. I understand we got used to watching a winner and it is easy to blame the highest paid guy when our team sucks. But some of the takes on Jones are really something.

Cherrypicking stats like #43 in pts/60 for RHD while not even attempting to acknowledge that 5 of those 43 have played less than a dozen games and almost all don't even sniff 2:36/game SH or even kill penalties at all is either being obtuse or intentionally deceitful to try to make a point.

Jones is paid like a top 10 RHD in the league and he is not. Blame Stunley for failing to develop a RHD since Seabs was around and having to go trading for a pending UFA to fill the toughest position in hockey to. To argue Jones is not in that 2nd 10 best RHD in the league is not based in reality. Arguing whether he is 11 or 20 is one thing, arguing he is in the 40-50's range for RHD is absurd.

Guys that play 25 minutes a game and have 42pts/82games career (having played the last 4 on terrible offensive Hawks teams and Columbus teams that were far from a powerhouse) don't bring back 2nd round picks....or you don't trade them.
 
if you can take that 9.5 from Seth and allocate it to Bedard and make sure he's locked up for 8 years at whatever he wants that would be a huge win, thats a better use of cap space
 
u2wojo said:
Cherrypicking stats like #43 in pts/60 for RHD
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unless i'm missing something crucial (which is always very possible), you are the only person in this thread to even offer this number and i don't know where you got it.
u2wojo said:
not even attempting to acknowledge that 5 of those 43 have played less than a dozen games and almost all don't even sniff 2:36/game SH or even kill penalties at all.
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when i was dealing with jones' points/60 ranking, i made great pains to make clear that i was limiting the list to guys with 1200 minutes or more in a season. now maybe this isn't directed at me (it's apparently directed at no one considering as best as i can figure that's who said he's 43rd in pts/60 among rhd), but still i figure it's worth taking the opportunity to let you know the work has already been done to control for this particular confounding variable, and it really doesn't help jones out that much.
 
I just don't want him blocking D prospects on the powerplay. If we keep him, great. But I want Martinez, Brodie, and Murphy all gone. No more of this crap where we're benching Allan for weeks and sending EDM down because we gave contracts to old UFA's and Murphy is occasionally healthy.

Korchinski and honestly maybe even Levshunov will be in the mix with young Dmen getting NHL time next season and I don't want a repeat of what we're doing now.
 
As a minute-eating RHD, Jones does have value. The value is that he can basically do anything, in terms of play against top competition, play on the powerplay, play on the penalty kill. So he's a guy who can play 25 minutes a night and not look particularly out of place. Then because he's RHD, this comes at a premium because there are fewer DMen that can do this. There aren't a lot of guys that fit this bill.

The drawback though, is that he's not particularly strong in any of these areas. He's like a starting pitcher that can reliably eat 200 innings. And the issue becomes, with respect to trade/overall value, the contenders don't necessarily want him eating 25 minutes a night because he's not really good enough to be doing that, particularly deep into the postseason. But if you're playing him down lineup, are you basically losing a lot of his overall value to begin with? That makes his greatest value potentially being just what it is... a guy who can eat a lot of minutes, occupying a spot on the right side on a bad team that doesn't have better options. The guy who can eat a lot of the hard minutes and minuses so that Louis Crevier and Nolan Allan don't have to. In terms of what that means for a player in the overall assessment of League where people often have a Championship (or at least strong Contender) or Bust mentality is well... complicated. As people would generally prefer a "scalable" (and less expensive) player even if he would be less suited to eating those 25 minutes a night on a bad team.

Maybe I'm being harsher on Jones and his scalability, but I do genuinely think his best NHL trait is he can play big minutes without a big dropoff in his level of play. And that makes him a tricky piece to sell leaguewide when the level of play isn't that good/consistent to make a Contender excited.
 
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