Seth Jones: Reality Check

[CallMeShaft]

Im glad you could all come around to seeing it my way.

 

[Dr Salt]

He's a good player that was playing bad at one point this season. We know he's a good player. The complicated feelings are B*wman's fault, which will sadly follow him in his tenure here. But yeah I'd sell high.

 

[x Tame Impala]

Apparently it’s strongly speculated he’s going to be traded to Dallas. Hawks retain and get some value back. I wouldn’t hate it.

Seems like he was traded for and signed to get the max out of his first 3 or so years here while the Bowman Hawks attempted more playoff runs at the tail of the Toews and Kane era. Since we didn’t get that or anything close to it, and based on what we’ve seen of him so far, I’m fine trading him and not suffering through the back half of his contract.

With the cap going up I don’t care if it’s 50% retention but the assets better be representative of that.

 

[Blackhawks]

Apparently it’s strongly speculated he’s going to be traded to Dallas. Hawks retain and get some value back. I wouldn’t hate it.

Seems like he was traded for and signed to get the max out of his first 3 or so years here while the Bowman Hawks attempted more playoff runs at the tail of the Toews and Kane era. Since we didn’t get that or anything close to it, and based on what we’ve seen of him so far, I’m fine trading him and not suffering through the back half of his contract.

With the cap going up I don’t care if it’s 50% retention but the assets better be representative of that.

You do realize that all teams caps go up too right? Having 5 million in dead cap for the next 6 years is huge if you are serious team that wants to win the cup, that’s good second line player money or 2nd pairing D. I love how people just say that as if it has no effect on the team just because “the cap is gonna go up” lol

 

[kmwtrucks]

You do realize that all teams caps go up too right? Having 5 million in dead cap for the next 6 years is huge if you are serious team that wants to win the cup, that’s good second line player money or 2nd pairing D. I love how people just say that as if it has no effect on the team just because “the cap is gonna go up” lol

The issue is in the next 5 years were are they going to spend 112 mil in 2 years?
ARVID CREV kaiser RFA this year? raise but not massive
Nazar korch reichel allen del Mastro end of next year
Lev and slaggert 3 years min
Rinzel morre 3-4 years
boisvert greene lardis vannacker kantserov and the first this year 4-5,

unless we go crazy in UFA which would be terrible Its just hard to see who is going to get long term deals that are going out farther then the end of Jones contract. bedard and maybe 1-2 other players

Jones no retention does not return much, lets call it a second.
with retention maybe you can return 2026 1st, Marvit Borque 23 C and Christian Korvu 22 RD and Dumba for Jones 50% Maroon and 1 of kaiser, del mastro allen

 

[Blackhawks]

The issue is in the next 5 years were are they going to spend 112 mil in 2 years?
ARVID CREV kaiser RFA this year? raise but not massive
Nazar korch reichel allen del Mastro end of next year
Lev and slaggert 3 years min
Rinzel morre 3-4 years
boisvert greene lardis vannacker kantserov and the first this year 4-5,

unless we go crazy in UFA which would be terrible Its just hard to see who is going to get long term deals that are going out farther then the end of Jones contract. bedard and maybe 1-2 other players

Jones no retention does not return much, lets call it a second.
with retention maybe you can return 2026 1st, Marvit Borque 23 C and Christian Korvu 22 RD and Dumba for Jones 50% Maroon and 1 of kaiser, del mastro allen

You spend it on someone that is worth that money, don’t tell me how are they gonna spend it, how are other teams gonna spend it? 6 yers is a VERY along time and opportunities will arise to spend the money. But all this talk doesn’t matter because we have a donkey for a GM so he’s gonna continue to mess things up like his Daddy Stan the Man did.

 

[Taze em]

In this thread: Armchair GMs explain why it’s better to have 3% less cap dollars per season entering our contention window so we can offload a top 10 RHD in the NHL. Sharp cookies.

 

[statswatcher]

In this thread: Armchair GMs explain why it’s better to have 3% less cap dollars per season entering our contention window so we can offload a top 10 RHD in the NHL. Sharp cookies.

the temerity required to make an entire thread dedicated to dictating the gospel about what exactly should be done with a particular player only to turn around and call everyone else using that thread "armchair gms" by misrepresnting their disagreement with you is honestly astounding.

 

[Toews2Bickell]

move the contract while you have a chance imo

 

[Taze em]

the temerity required to make an entire thread dedicated to dictating the gospel about what exactly should be done with a particular player only to turn around and call everyone else using that thread "armchair gms" by misrepresnting their disagreement with you is honestly astounding.

Expressing the reality of the situation = dictating the gospel.

I’m just here to educate. Did it in Levshunov threads. Was right. Will do it on Seth Jones. Hawk fanbase has a real blind spot when it comes to defensemen I guess.

 

[ColbyChaos]

Expressing the reality of the situation = dictating the gospel.

I’m just here to educate. Did it in Levshunov threads. Was right. Will do it on Seth Jones. Hawk fanbase has a real blind spot when it comes to defensemen I guess.

You act like this fanbase didn’t watch Chelios, Keith, Seabrook, and Hjalmarsson be great defenders for this team through the last 30+ years and you have the audacity to try and say this fandom has a blind spot for defenseman while simultaneously trying to gaslight everyone into thinking Jones is a top 5 RD in the league

 

[statswatcher]

Expressing the reality of the situation = dictating the gospel.

you aren't "expressing" any "reality". you are making a strong statement of opinion with dubious validity on the sole evidentiary strength of two cherry picked stats, one of which isn't even an indication of performance so much as deployment and teammate quality, and the other is only slightly better than looking at raw points.

let's actually hone in on that "13th in points per game" stat for a second so i can demonstrate why this one in particular is cherry picked. it evaporates into thin air when you denomenate by minutes played rather than games played. of the 163 defencemen with 680+ minutes played this year, jones is 10th in all strengths time on ice per game played, but 20th in all strengths points/60 (and an eye-watering 71st 5v5). for the hell of it let's look at these numbers going back a few years.

seth jones points/60 ranked among all players with 1200+ minutes:
2023-24 - 60th all strength, 77th 5v5
2022-23 - 47th all strength, 50th 5v5
2021-22 - 29th all strength, 32nd 5v5
2020-21 (lowered the toi threshold to 900 for this year to account for the shortened season) - 40th all strength, 38th 5v5
2019-20 - 37th all strength, didn't have 1200 5v5 minutes
2018-19 - 26th all strength, 28th 5v5
2017-18 - 13th all strength, 16th 5v5
2016-17 - 18th all strength, 12th 5v5
2015-16 - 54th all strength, 39th 5v5
2014-15 - 61st all strength, 56th 5v5
2013-14 - 68th all strength, didn't have 1200 5v5 minutes

so by this standard, your darling here before this season hadn't cracked the top twenty offensive defensemen in the league for six seasons, and he's never even sniffed top ten since then either. i'd say a thirty year old having his best season in half a decade and signed for the next half decade to follow is the very definition of a good asset to sell high on.

 

[Crow]

Im glad you could all come around to seeing it my way.

I’m sorry did you make some posts again?

 

[Taze em]

you aren't "expressing" any "reality". you are making a strong statement of opinion with dubious validity on the sole evidentiary strength of two cherry picked stats, one of which isn't even an indication of performance so much as deployment and teammate quality, and the other is only slightly better than looking at raw points.

let's actually hone in on that "13th in points per game" stat for a second so i can demonstrate why this one in particular is cherry picked. it evaporates into thin air when you denomenate by minutes played rather than games played. of the 163 defencemen with 680+ minutes played this year, jones is 10th in all strengths time on ice per game played, but 20th in all strengths points/60 (and an eye-watering 71st 5v5). for the hell of it let's look at these numbers going back a few years.

seth jones points/60 ranked among all players with 1200+ minutes:
2023-24 - 60th all strength, 77th 5v5
2022-23 - 47th all strength, 50th 5v5
2021-22 - 29th all strength, 32nd 5v5
2020-21 (lowered the toi threshold to 900 for this year to account for the shortened season) - 40th all strength, 38th 5v5
2019-20 - 37th all strength, didn't have 1200 5v5 minutes
2018-19 - 26th all strength, 28th 5v5
2017-18 - 13th all strength, 16th 5v5
2016-17 - 18th all strength, 12th 5v5
2015-16 - 54th all strength, 39th 5v5
2014-15 - 61st all strength, 56th 5v5
2013-14 - 68th all strength, didn't have 1200 5v5 minutes

so by this standard, your darling here before this season hadn't cracked the top twenty offensive defensemen in the league for six seasons, and he's never even sniffed top ten since then either. i'd say a thirty year old having his best season in half a decade and signed for the next half decade to follow is the very definition of a good asset to sell high on.

A lot of words. Unfortunately for you I read them. A lot thrown out there to bury in the middle that he is 20th in points/60 this season. Now divide that in half if we assume equal number of lefties and righties (there aren’t- lefty dominant). Where are we now? Top 10 RHD.

Now, let’s take one of the worst years. Where he is 60th. what would you call the 60th defensemen in points/60 when you are playing in a 32 team league lol. Even worse… what would that ranking be among RHD? Just crunched the numbers.. could it be? That’s a top pairing defenseman!

 

[Taze em]

You act like this fanbase didn’t watch Chelios, Keith, Seabrook, and Hjalmarsson be great defenders for this team through the last 30+ years and you have the audacity to try and say this fandom has a blind spot for defenseman while simultaneously trying to gaslight everyone into thinking Jones is a top 5 RD in the league

Search Duncan Keith posts on this very board from 2005/6/7 (altho I think they were whiped) and you will find the Levy and Jones haters of today talking about moving Duncan Keith to forward. Old timers can verify.

 

[Taze em]

My mind is also blown by statswatchers ability to show in black and white a truly remarkable trend. Team good, Seth stats good. Team bad, Seth stats less good.

Jones wasting his prime on trash teams should be respected more for riding it out. Not shipped out of town for spare parts right before we need him on the come up.

 

[Hattrick Kane]

My mind is also blown by statswatchers ability to show in black and white a truly remarkable trend. Team good, Seth stats good. Team bad, Seth stats less good.

Jones wasting his prime on trash teams should be respected more for riding it out. Not shipped out of town for spare parts right before we need him on the come up.

This season

3 game win streaks with Jones in the lineup - 0

3 game win streaks without Jones in the lineup - 1

 

[statswatcher]

Now, let’s take one of the worst years. Where he is 60th. what would you call the 60th defensemen in points/60 when you are playing in a 32 team league lol. Even worse… what would that ranking be among RHD?

i call him generously something like a 75th-80th percentile scoring defensman in the nhl over the course of his career. truly elite players do not suffer this much relative to the league and other elite players by being on bottom feeder teams. i'd say the fact that he is being "trusted" with so much ice time goes a long way to paint a picture of why the team he plays for is a bottom feeder.

Also, pts/60 is just as cherry picked as my raw numbers. So we’re just penalizing players for being trusted with more ice time?

no they aren't. you didn't even give raw numbers (if you did he'd be 33rd in points by d btw). you gave rates per game played. this "penalizes players for being trusted with more ice time" just the same as rating by actual minutes played. you are already apealing to scoring efficiency. it's among the reasons i decided to work with a more accurate measure of scoring efficiency that i anticipated you would try to make this exact objection lmao. the fact of the matter is for the majority of his career, something like 30 full time defensemen scored more than jones per minute on the ice each season. you can spin that however you like, but its far from the slam dunk case for "top ten nhl rhd" you presented it as in your op.

Also, does Seth Jones play on our top ranked PK?

sure he does. this is the best point you've made so far, but it still doesn’t sway me into thinking keeping him until age 35 at 9-7% of the cap throughout that time is preferable to trading him to a contender now for good value in the form of high draft capital, young players, or prospects.

*at best* a Top 10 *offensive* RHD *this season*.

is as much as the point of fact presented entitles you to. hilariously qualified for how grandiose a point you set out to make.

Jones wasting his prime on trash teams should be respected more for riding it out.

respect him all you want, sentimentality doesn't effect the objective value proposition. you just admitted literally right here that his prime is wasted. he's been at the underwhelming offensive heights you are describing three out of twelve seasons. i sincerely doubt he will still be reaching the same heights several years from now when it might actually make a difference for this team. if he is, it probably won't even be for this team.

 

[ColbyChaos]

I’d rather be forced to read 50 type out the entire ASOIAF novel series over watching Taze em continue trying to convince everyone here (with cherry picked stats) that Jones is actually a top 5 RD.

 

[statswatcher]

I’d rather be forced to read 50 type out the entire ASOIAF novel series over watching Taze em continue trying to convince everyone here (with cherry picked stats) that Jones is actually a top 5 RD.

well you see, he's 33rd in defensive scoring so far this season, but if you divide that by half because he shoots right you get 16.5th. subtract .5 because he's been pretty good on the pk and divide by 4 because he plays for a bad team, and you'll see that he's basically a really cool guy and i'd like to have his autograph.

 

[Crow]

If Seth Jones didn’t have so many defensive gaffs or lapses he would be a top RHD. He is physically capable of being a top RHD. He isn’t though. I think he is indecisive in his own zone, and that leads to mistakes. He excels pretty often with the puck on his stick.

 

[Taze em]

Jeez you sound exactly like KBIB.

that guys crazy. I just have an opinion that is correct but different from most all others. And decided to be a dick about it in this case. But the hate for Seth really has nothing to do with his play. It’s projected anger at Bowman, projecting a personality on Seth Jones that make him a “bad teammate”, he symbolizes the end of a really special era for us all. he signed a contract putnin front of him, and he’s a square peg in a round hole (doesn’t fit our team goals).

People take that stew of hate and cook it with run of the mill defensive flubs to concoct the narrative that Seth is bad.

These are the mental gymnastics I’m talking about. He’s a good to great player. He’s a top player at his position. Don’t retain and don’t sell low.

 

[Hawkaholic]

He’s a top player at his position.

No, he's not.

You want a stat?
5 on 5 out of NHL Dmen Jones ranks
82nd in points per 60mins
67th in shots on goal per 60mins

You can post all the points he leeches off the PP from Bedard and Co, but 5 on 5, where he should earn his money, not only is he completely average offensively, he isn't even the best defender on his own team.

 

[Taze em]

No, he's not.

You want a stat?
5 on 5 out of NHL Dmen Jones ranks
82nd in points per 60mins
67th in shots on goal per 60mins

You can post all the points he leeches off the PP from Bedard and Co, but 5 on 5, where he should earn his money, not only is he completely average offensively, he isn't even the best defender on his own team.

How are Jones’ teammates at 5v5? Why does bedard get the “he has bums to play with” and Jones doesn’t.

 

[DisgruntledHawkFan]

You guys are still doing this eh?