Seth Jones: Reality Check

He’s the Hawks best player.
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without Seth jones and Murphy, walk me through what happens in your mind over the next few years that gets the Hawks D to a competitive level. Are Lev Rinzel and Korch all going to be top 4 2025? 2026? 2027? What happens if they aren’t, give me a list of defensemen you’d sign. Or which of our forward prospects you’d trade for what defensemen.

I am not anti trade Jones. But he does not require retention and he does require good assets back. Because in the real world the Hawks are bargaining from a position of strength. They don’t need to trade him. They have 37 million in cap space.

Cherry picking stats? Easily skewable? They are like the two most basic stats and jones has a plenty big sample size that even includes an injury that he sucked coming off of.

Nice try tho.
We have Vlasic, Lev, Allan, EDM, Rinzell, Kaiser, and potentially Schaefer depending how the lottery balls shake out (I am still team Misa though) our D core of the future doesnt turn into a diaster without Jones and Murphy lmfao.

Murphy already barely plays losing him wont matter as much as you think it will he isnt even a competetive player for the 30 games a year he actually is in the lineup.

Jones off the team is better long term we dont need him on the team until he is 38. In terms of upcoming UFAs there is Ekblad, Dumolin, Fabbro, Matta, Jokiharju, Pionk, Schmidt, Lindgren among many others that can act as a stop gap for a season or two if Lev and Rinzell arent ready, all those players besides Ekblad would not even need to be massively overpaid as Jones is either.

SJs value isnt going to magically go up as he gets older, slower, and even worse defensively. Better to get positive assets now if the option is there.
 
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Jones trade isn’t “striking while the iron is hot” his value is low as hell right now. Evidence: not even a sniff at making team USA for this tournament. Not even in discussions.
Perhaps his value is low and he didn't get a sniff for making team USA because most of the hockey world sees what we see. He's a great player who pretty much never lives up to his potential, and always leaves you disappointed. He's lazy and disinterested way too often to be depended upon.
 
He started the season ok and then tapered off. He got hurt and when he came back he was coasting and putting forth minimal effort. You could see it even in his stat lines with no or minimal shots, blacoked shots, hits...

Finally in one of if not his worst games as a Hawk the crowd boo'd him. That seemed to wake him up and he has played great ever since. Which shows it is a mental and effort thing with him. If he can play like this all the time he is a definite keeper. But I think sooner or later he will likely revert to his lazy tendencies. I am scared his short term hot streak is an abnormality.

Time will tell. Who knows, maye the crowd booing him might have changed him as a player for the better
Or maybe he came back before he was healthy. A foot injury. … slower turning, no ability for quick bursts.

Or your take. Based on…
 
Jones trade isn’t “striking while the iron is hot” his value is low as hell right now. Evidence: not even a sniff at making team USA for this tournament. Not even in discussions.
But he's playing fantastic hockey right now, according to you. I'll agree he's playing his best in recent memory but shouldn't the lack of interest in him tell you something? More people have my view of him than yours.
 
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Perhaps his value is low and he didn't get a sniff for making team USA because most of the hockey world sees what we see. He's a great player who pretty much never lives up to his potential, and always leaves you disappointed. He's lazy and disinterested way too often to be depended upon.

He’s a great player, but really he sucks and is lazy.

Makes sense lol.
 
I’ve said this elsewhere, but Jones just doesn’t make this team better when he’s in the lineup. When he was out for a month, they honestly didn’t look any different than with him in the lineup.
Hawks were 6-10 w/o Jones
Jones return, Hawks are 5-16

Not saying it is all on Jones but that doesn't indicate to me that he's a critical piece.
 
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Hawks were 6-10 w/o Jones
Jones return, Hawks are 5-16

Not saying it is all on Jones but that doesn't indicate to me that he's a critical piece.
That 6-10 included a good part of the dead cat bounce that usually comes with a new coach though. He definitely had a rough stretch when he returned, but at least partly that can be chalked up to rust/lingering issues from the injury and adapting to the new system. He has been great lately, and on the whole has been good this year. Hate to break it to those of you that love to pile on him, but the fact of the matter is that if you are a minute muncher on a bad team you are not going to look great all the time. Just look at Vlasic this year.
 
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Jones is inconsistent, but eats minutes. If the entire veteran D core leaves one way or another, who leads by example and mentors? I'm tired of the pylon Murphy so move him. I like Martinez winning pedigree and would consider him in a bottom 6 role next year. Brodie should be bought out. Got to take a step forward next year and that has to come from internal growth on the blueline.
 
He started the season ok and then tapered off. He got hurt and when he came back he was coasting and putting forth minimal effort. You could see it even in his stat lines with no or minimal shots, blacoked shots, hits...

Finally in one of if not his worst games as a Hawk the crowd boo'd him. That seemed to wake him up and he has played great ever since. Which shows it is a mental and effort thing with him. If he can play like this all the time he is a definite keeper. But I think sooner or later he will likely revert to his lazy tendencies. I am scared his short term hot streak is an abnormality.

Time will tell. Who knows, maye the crowd booing him might have changed him as a player for the better
or he was hurt and coming back from injury so his play suffered.
 
Jones trade isn’t “striking while the iron is hot” his value is low as hell right now. Evidence: not even a sniff at making team USA for this tournament. Not even in discussions.
Hes not as good as Faber Fox and McAvoy on the right side. Hes also not as good as Carlsson who didnt make it. Hes probably not that far out of the picture tho.

I would put him at the top of the next tier. Pesce and Pionk. Im prob missing guys.
 
How are we going to make the cap floor next year without him would be my question? Are there any LTIR contracts out there we can pick up? Picking those up might be a bad look for a lot of our overly negative fans.
 
How are we going to make the cap floor next year without him would be my question? Are there any LTIR contracts out there we can pick up? Picking those up might be a bad look for a lot of our overly negative fans.

Not including Jones, here are guys you have to replace or extend...

2.5M - Kurashev
2.0M - Donato
1.3M - Maroon
1.0M - C. Smith
4.0M - Martinez
775k - Crevier
962k - Soderblom

So that's about 12.5M, potentially 4.4M more to consider if Murphy is moved.

This is my first time poking around the website CapWages and they have projected cap hit ands terms. Some players of note....

Rantanen - 14M/8 years
Marner - 12.9M/8 years
Boeser - 9.3M/7 years
Taveras - 8.2M/3 years
Marchand - 8M/3 years
Ehlers - 7.7M/6 years
Nelson - 6.9M/3 years
Duchene - 6.5M/3 years
Bennett - 6.4M/6 years
Kane - 3.5M/1 year

No clue how they're coming up with these numbers.
 
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If we had to retain 3.5MM on Jones I am fine with that as the max (depending on what is coming back). We will be needing to pay by the end of that and 3.5 would be a top 4th line/ bottom 3rd line player by then. If the cap trends out.
 
stepping back from an evaluation of jones in the abstract, concretely the team has objectivley gained absolutley nothing by having him. he wasn't the piece to bring the toews-kane hawks back for one more kick at the can, he hasn't won anything at the nhl level so he's not the kind of guy with the resume to teach young guys what it takes to win, and by the time the team is in a position to actually make use of him effectively, he will almost certainly be somewhat if not significantly diminished by age.

if you get any positive value out of him this year at all it will be more value than he's brought to the table in three full seasons, and it is highly likely to be more value than they should expect to see out of him for the next five. and that's not just because he hasn't lived up to the contract, but rather its a consequence of the timing and conceit behind stanbo trading for him being basically as bad as it could have been as regards putting jones in a position to succeed.

that said, seeing as how the market has heated up significantly since the cap forecast, i wouldn't part with him retained for less than a first and a solid prospect. paying to give him away or retaining on him for nothing would only compound the problem.
 
If we had to retain 3.5MM on Jones I am fine with that as the max (depending on what is coming back). We will be needing to pay by the end of that and 3.5 would be a top 4th line/ bottom 3rd line player by then. If the cap trends out.

Yeeesh, the idea of eating that much cap space for a guy playing on a different team during years 3-7 of Bedard... Yeah, I just can't get onboard with that.
 
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Yeeesh, the idea of eating that much cap space for a guy playing on a different team during years 3-7 of Bedard... Yeah, I just can't get onboard with that.
Depending on what comes back. If a 1st and a top prospect to play with Bedard I am good with it. Just be have Jones gone and pay I am not on board with.
 
Not including Jones, here are guys you have to replace or extend...

2.5M - Kurashev
2.0M - Donato
1.3M - Maroon
1.0M - C. Smith
4.0M - Martinez
775k - Crevier
962k - Soderblom

So that's about 12.5M, potentially 4.4M more to consider if Murphy is moved.

This is my first time poking around the website CapWages and they have projected cap hit ands terms. Some players of note....

Rantanen - 14M/8 years
Marner - 12.9M/8 years
Boeser - 9.3M/7 years
Taveras - 8.2M/3 years
Marchand - 8M/3 years
Ehlers - 7.7M/6 years
Nelson - 6.9M/3 years
Duchene - 6.5M/3 years
Bennett - 6.4M/6 years
Kane - 3.5M/1 year

No clue how they're coming up with these numbers.
Wouldn’t mind taking a run at Nelson, Tavares, Duchene if that’s the term. I kind of doubt that we will be able to sign any of those though. They have to have cup aspirations no?
 
Jones trade isn’t “striking while the iron is hot” his value is low as hell right now. Evidence: not even a sniff at making team USA for this tournament. Not even in discussions.
And Schiefele and Thompson were left off team Canada, the teams were picked long ago. Sanderson was a LHD replacement for Hughes.

Anyway, Jones is playing some of his best hockey in a Chicago uniform. His trade value is only going to decline - he has a full NMC and who knows if the places he will waive to will even have interest 2+ years from now. Dallas and Colorado are both likely destinations that have a glaring need right now and interest. So yes, for those reasons, the iron is 'hot'

Otherwise, you're likely stuck with Jones for the remainder of his contract and declining play. Wouldn't it be better to use that cap and roster spot elsewhere in 3 years?
 
Big deal if Seth Jonesv s 4th offensively among NHL RDmen..he is 277th in +/-. Amongst ALL dmen..for$9.5 per? Conevin..

That is too big a discrepancy to tolerate . 276 NHL dmen are better than him in preventing goals at evens or when Hawks have goalie out or when Hawks onthe Pp

Think about it...276 dmen are better than hom in these situations and he is only somewhat good on the PP ..

Even if he scores some pp poi ts and some at evens,the net differential of his offense minus his defense contributes big to Hawks losses..
Ever since he got to Chicago he has been bad karna.

He is a Loser.

Whike there are certain goals agInst no dman canprevent...the eye test shows he loses too many puck battles.. loses focus...fumbles at key times...fails to clear at crucial moments.. makes bad decisions...has a oiir gap..justca litany of mistakes beyond the acceptable amount for any dman making $8.5 per ..or $7.5 per or even$4.5per ...Maybe you expect a 6th or 7th minimum or low diary marginal dman to keep making these errors of omission and comisdisdion too often to keep tolerating..but you do notcexoect such a highly paid only 30 year old #1rike defenseman to keep on making these flawed defensive events that keep too many goals going agaibst when he is on..

Also you coukdcsY IF a dnan does this he mist outscore or better mitigate t with even more offense such that he turns net negatives I to net positives.
He is a FAIL.


I know...you will say Hawksxas a team need to score more when he is on.. to help mitigate the net negative when he is on..
Yes..but on a situation like this he simply has got to cut down the goals agaibst when hebis on...

All 276 dmen ahead of hom in +/- are not all great in offense..

So it cones back to this..he has to be better than he is defensively..
 
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