Speculation: Sens, Lebreton, and the NCC part II

[Silencio]

I mean, Netflix has had an operating income of under 1 mil per year for the last 4 years, but is valued at ~100 billion. Maybe there's more to valuation than operating income...

Oops, admitatdly, the ref I looked up had incorrect #s. Point remains though, more to valuation than OI, you can be highly valued even while losing money.

Amazon is the perfect example of this.

 

[topshelf15]

There are no EM supporters or apologists. We really should try and stop trying to force this divisiveness. This simplistic 'us vs them' way of trying to single out groups on the boards is pretty lame, and it's generally the same three guys doing it.

It reminds me of the great Fisher debates. What happens is that some posters goes to the ultimate extreme with their arguments against someone, and other posters who hold a more moderate view feel compelled to try and reign in such fans so as not to have their view be the dominant voice in the thread. They end up arguing seemingly in favour of a person that they don't necessarily support, when really they just don't feel as extreme and are just arguing a less extreme version of the same position.

The reality here is that no one is happy with the ownership situation, and no one is a fan of EM around here. People are concerned though that some of the loudest voices are being disingenuous when looking at the attendance and budget issues and not accepting that the fan base also has to take some responsibility if things are to be turned around. It's not enough for new ownership to come in and spend more, there will be an expectation that fans will have to spend more as well, especially if people want/expect a cap team. Flamingo in the only poster I can recall who has actively committed to spending more if the ownership situation is sorted out.

We can all understand that EM has alienated the fanbase, but the fix is not likely to be a super rich owner that's ok losing money every year to fund a cap team while charging the cheapest ticket prices in Canada and dealing with less than full arenas. It's more likely to be a properly funded organization that runs a budget team that reflects the markets ability to spend on the team. The more you spend the more you get.

Fans need to be committed and ownership has to be committed, pretty simple, it's common sense really. So let's try and leave the EM apologist/defender stuff in the trash where it belongs, it's lowest common denominator stuff and makes us all look bad.

This is a pretty fair post...Biggest issue with ownership,and this hasnt been a just a EM thing...Is the constant message of being limited finacially...

This constant cold water stream being poured over the fans ,leads to fan discontent...Nobody is going to buy a ticket to see a team that just exists,most fans want to dream of having a cup winner...The negativity starts from the top,its fine to have a budget ....But dont make it the entire focal point in running the team FFS

 

[coladin]

People is Ottawa are not riddled with a sense of entitlement, they are some of the most humble and community oriented down home people anywhere.

You’re talking like the new owner is going to sort the fans out, tell your mate not to F with this fanbase, this fanbase was as patient and gave rh benefit of the doubt to Meknyck for years when he was doing drunken interviews and insulting the city and the people running it.

And honestly mysens I hope you are playing a character and you’re not this insufferable

Haha he is messing with you all. Totally.

 

[NorthCoast]

I don’t know if you noticed, it’s the same people posting there to. I have never heard complaints in our season ticket seats with the same people sitting there for the last ten years.

Are you predicting that attendance will up this year compared to last? In no, then why not?

 

[BankStreetParade]

So Billionaires are lined up at the door pounding away desperate to get into a league with a failed business model where only the top few markets in the biggest cities make money and the rest of the owners lose money hand over fist! I can see the attraction for these terrible businessmen who have made billions by throwing their money away...

Stop for one second and apply some critical thinking to the situation.



Speaking of dubious financial claims...


The BEST source of information we have with regards to the Sens finances is Forbes. We all know that they say the Sens have generated an operation profit consistently over the last decade.
If you have a better source for you claims that they lose money, feel free to bring it to the discussion.

Forbes doesn't say anything about the profitability of the Senators. They list their operating income of which they still have to pay taxes on and make no mention of debt service in the overall numbers or the approximately $60 million in improvements that have been made to the CTC since 2013 including a new scoreboard, lighting system, sound system, club bell, general maintenance, etc.

But let's use those rudimentary numbers:

In 2008, Ottawa had a revenue of approximately $96 million. In 2017, it was $135 million (their best year ever, by far. They've never even been over $120 million).
In 2008, Ottawa had a franchise value of $207 million. In 2017, it was $420 million.

How does a business that saw revenue increase of about 40% also increase the value of their business by more than 100%?

 

[Sensung]

The reality here is that no one is happy with the ownership situation, and no one is a fan of EM around here. People are concerned though that some of the loudest voices are being disingenuous when looking at the attendance and budget issues and not accepting that the fan base also has to take some responsibility if things are to be turned around. It's not enough for new ownership to come in and spend more, there will be an expectation that fans will have to spend more as well, especially if people want/expect a cap team. Flamingo in the only poster I can recall who has actively committed to spending more if the ownership situation is sorted out.

Wow, I'm flabbergasted that someone could read these boards and make this claim.
If Melnyk is gone and we bring in competent ownership, the fans will return. I and many others have committed to buying tickets once Eugene sells controlling interest.

The big difference, is that myself and many other members of the fanbase see Melnyk as the biggest problem and are willing to do something about it by withholding financial support to force him out.

We can all understand that EM has alienated the fanbase, but the fix is not likely to be a super rich owner that's ok losing money every year to fund a cap team while charging the cheapest ticket prices in Canada and dealing with less than full arenas. It's more likely to be a properly funded organization that runs a budget team that reflects the markets ability to spend on the team. The more you spend the more you get.

Fans need to be committed and ownership has to be committed, pretty simple, it's common sense really. So let's try and leave the EM apologist/defender stuff in the trash where it belongs, it's lowest common denominator stuff and makes us all look bad.

The team and building generate positive revenue. The owner has chosen to load it with debt.

If new ownership comes in and removes the debt like Vinnik did in TB, then the market can generate enough money to run at a much higher budget and fans will be willing to buy more tickets and spend more on the tickets. HOPE sells, and this ownership group has removed that crucial element from the equation. A new ownership group would simply have to come in a sign the big 3 to immediately restore HOPE and re-ignite the fanbase.

 

[topshelf15]

If EM is so hard done by ,why doesnt he just sell the team as it doesnt make him any money???lol....If he was really losing millions he wouldnt be here

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

Just wondering if anyone has access to the numbers on the Redblacks. Bankstreet said no one in ottawa will pay or show up compared to other markets. I just wonder what the ticket price and attendance for the CFL looks like compared to others.

 

[BankStreetParade]

I mean, Netflix has had an operating income of under 1 mil per year for the last 4 years, but is valued at ~100 billion. Maybe there's more to valuation than operating income...

Oops, admitatdly, the ref I looked up had incorrect #s. Point remains though, more to valuation than OI, you can be highly valued even while losing money.

Twitter would have been a better example,

Come on, you can't compare the tech industry to the service/entertainment industry.

 

[topshelf15]

Wow, I'm flabbergasted that someone could read these boards and make this claim.
If Melnyk is gone and we bring in competent ownership, the fans will return. I and many others have committed to buying tickets once Eugene sells controlling interest.

The big difference, is that myself and many other members of the fanbase see Melnyk as the biggest problem and are willing to do something about it by withholding financial support to force him out.


The team and building generate positive revenue. The owner has chosen to load it with debt.

If new ownership comes in and removes the debt like Vinnik did in TB, then the market can generate enough money to run at a much higher budget and fans will be willing to buy more tickets and spend more on the tickets. HOPE sells, and this ownership group has removed that crucial element from the equation. A new ownership group would simply have to come in a sign the big 3 to immediately restore HOPE and re-ignite the fanbase.

He buries in debt to make sure it never makes money on paper ,and never has to use his own...He wants a chunk of that huge new arena deal though,even though without the team it would never be there for him to begin with...

It was us fans that brought the team to where it is right now,which is on the verge of a huge multibillion dollar downtown arena project...Yet we seem to always get the short end of the deal when it comes to getting what we want

 

[BankStreetParade]

If EM is so hard done by ,why doesnt he just sell the team as it doesnt make him any money???lol....If he was really losing millions he wouldnt be here

Jesus, it's already been posted.

The value of the team is being artificially inflated through certain mechanisms including expansion which is being used as a tool to set the floor on prices for franchises.

He might be losing tons of money every year. Or he might be breaking even. Or he might be fluctuating year to year. We don't know for sure because we don't have the financial documents.

But he's riding the bubble right now. He's betting that after Seattle comes in to the league he should be able to ask for at least $700 million for the franchise and that there will be someone waiting to take his seat on the ride hoping to make lots of money when they go to sell.

The value of the team itself has less to do with the market and more to do with the NHL fixing prices on franchises since they own the ability to do so.

 

[topshelf15]

Jesus, it's already been posted.

The value of the team is being artificially inflated through certain mechanisms including expansion which is being used as a tool to set the floor on prices for franchises.

He might be losing tons of money every year. Or he might be breaking even. Or he might be fluctuating year to year. We don't know for sure because we don't have the financial documents.

But he's riding the bubble right now. He's betting that after Seattle comes in to the league he should be able to ask for at least $700 million for the franchise and that there will be someone waiting to take his seat on the ride hoping to make lots of money when they go to sell.

The value of the team itself has less to do with the market and more to do with the NHL fixing prices on franchises since they own the ability to do so.

Jesus Iam sorry.....But I really dont need the page long post to explain something that can easily be explained with what i posted with sarcasim ....He makes money ,and is in line to make so so much more ...He just doesnt want to share it with us

 

[Micklebot]

Come on, you can't compare the tech industry to the service/entertainment industry.

Tesla then?

The point is valuation comes not from the past years profit, but from projections forward. You can operate at a lose one year or more and still be seen as a valuable commodity.

 

[Sensung]

Forbes doesn't say anything about the profitability of the Senators. They list their operating income of which they still have to pay taxes on and make no mention of debt service in the overall numbers or the approximately $60 million in improvements that have been made to the CTC since 2013 including a new scoreboard, lighting system, sound system, club bell, general maintenance, etc.

Forbes numbers include debt service on the arena. Are you suggesting that Melnyk can load the team with an unlimited amount of debt, but it is the fans responsibility to pay it off?
Who paid for the arena improvements? (read back in the thread for the answers)
Taxes have to be paid on income if they lose money or make a profit.

So once again, the BEST source we have suggests that Melnyk's operations in Ottawa make money. Please provide a credible source that suggests otherwise. (and know, quoting references to the paper losses Melynk has structured his businesses to have the team experience do not count)

But let's use those rudimentary numbers:

In 2008, Ottawa had a revenue of approximately $96 million. In 2017, it was $135 million (their best year ever, by far. They've never even been over $120 million).
In 2008, Ottawa had a franchise value of $207 million. In 2017, it was $420 million.

How does a business that saw revenue increase of about 40% also increase the value of their business by more than 100%?

Once again, it is time to see if you can apply some critical thinking to the situation.

Why are billionaires lining up to try and fork over hundreds of millions of dollars to get in on a failed business model?

Why does Eugene have offers from multiple groups to spend hundreds of millions of dollars to take the team off his hands?

Why does Eugene want to keep owning a business that is losing money?

Why does Melnyk want to hurt his daughter by turning the franchise over to her? Does he hate her?

 

[topshelf15]

He runs the team and arena as two separate buisness,s...One loses money ,one makes money...Both are the same buisness,EM is doing what every other billionaire would do ,keeping his loss down by any means nessesary ..

While keeping the growth of profit as high as possible...The team and its players are net loss to him period,hence we have a budget...Nothing really earthshattering or in need of a pie charts and math equations to explain

 

[BankStreetParade]

Forbes numbers include debt service on the arena. Are you suggesting that Melnyk can load the team with an unlimited amount of debt, but it is the fans responsibility to pay it off?
Who paid for the arena improvements? (read back in the thread for the answers)
Taxes have to be paid on income if they lose money or make a profit.

So once again, the BEST source we have suggests that Melnyk's operations in Ottawa make money. Please provide a credible source that suggests otherwise. (and know, quoting references to the paper losses Melynk has structured his businesses to have the team experience do not count)


Once again, it is time to see if you can apply some critical thinking to the situation.

Why are billionaires lining up to try and fork over hundreds of millions of dollars to get in on a failed business model?

Why does Eugene have offers from multiple groups to spend hundreds of millions of dollars to take the team off his hands?

Why does Eugene want to keep owning a business that is losing money?

Why does Melnyk want to hurt his daughter by turning the franchise over to her? Does he hate her?

I don't know why I bothered responding to you. You've never once had an honest discussion with someone. You only use deception and deflection to make your points. I'm not going to bother answering any of your questions since you can never be bothered to actually answer the ones asked of you.

Critical thinking...lol. The irony.

 

[topshelf15]

Tesla then?

The point is valuation comes not from the past years profit, but from projections forward. You can operate at a lose one year or more and still be seen as a valuable commodity.

A loss can also be a gain in some cases....Big money always seems to get better rules lol

 

[topshelf15]

I don't know why I bothered responding to you. You've never once had an honest discussion with someone. You only use deception and deflection to make your points. I'm not going to bother answering any of your questions since you can never be bothered to actually answer the ones asked of you.

Critical thinking...lol. The irony.

Meh he is just as many of us are here,annoyed and pissed off...We dont need to hear anything more from our owner...What would be nice is that he starts to share some of the pie,with his most important partners

 

[RealSpartan]

There are people who don't attend games for a myriad of reasons, some legitimate (can't afford) and some less so (cold water, sound system, etc.). Let's put them in bucket A and forget about them because I don't believe anything will change their habits.

There are people who attend games no matter what for a myriad of reasons. Let's put them in bucket B and forget about them because for one reason or another they go.

There are people who don't attend games (or very few) but have the resources to increase their attendance and for legitimate reasons are holding back. I am in this category. I was a full STH since day 1 at the civic centre, and while life situations occasionally caused jitter in my attendance (last year of Uni I went to less games, for example, but the year after I went right back up to normal attendance), I gradually began scaling scaling back: STH => 1/2 season => 12 game pack => 6 game pack => odd game here or there (if at all).

I am passionate about my team. I have plenty of money but I'm not a fool with it. I'm not going to games anymore. You might say I'm protesting.

The day the Sens figure out why* and start making corrections will be the first day on the road to salvation.

* Interestingly, I don't recall them ever calling to ask

 

[Sensung]

I don't know why I bothered responding to you. You've never once had an honest discussion with someone. You only use deception and deflection to make your points. I'm not going to bother answering any of your questions since you can never be bothered to actually answer the ones asked of you.

Critical thinking...lol. The irony.

I answered your questions with regards to the Forbes #'s.

I didn't bother with the revenue vs valuation question because multiple posters had already responded on that issue to you.

Read this article and then answer my questions you ignored.

NHL Lockout: Why do billionaires keep buying teams that lose money? (Updated)

 

[BankStreetParade]

Meh he is just as many of us are here,annoyed and pissed off...We dont need to hear anything more from our owner...What would be nice is that he starts to share some of the pie,with his most important partners

All of us are pissed off and annoyed. I hate the season that the team just had. And I hate the uncertainty with our star players right now. But lying, deceiving, outright fabricating information to suit your narrative, pinning all the blame on one side when the blame should be shared, I'm not ok with that. And I'll keep standing up to the people who want to turn this forum into a place that's unbearable to visit because of their unrelenting negativity and campaigns of misinformation.

And I don't know how you want him to share the pie? What does that even mean?

 

[topshelf15]

All of us are pissed off and annoyed. I hate the season that the team just had. And I hate the uncertainty with our star players right now. But lying, deceiving, outright fabricating information to suit your narrative, pinning all the blame on one side when the blame should be shared, I'm not ok with that. And I'll keep standing up to the people who want to turn this forum into a place that's unbearable to visit because of their unrelenting negativity and campaigns of misinformation.

And I don't know how you want him to share the pie? What does that even mean?

The pie is money,he makes some you know it I know it...How much we will likely never know,and I have no issue with him taking a nice slice,but man leave some for us too...lol

 

[Ice-Tray]

Wow, I'm flabbergasted that someone could read these boards and make this claim.
If Melnyk is gone and we bring in competent ownership, the fans will return. I and many others have committed to buying tickets once Eugene sells controlling interest.

The big difference, is that myself and many other members of the fanbase see Melnyk as the biggest problem and are willing to do something about it by withholding financial support to force him out.


The team and building generate positive revenue. The owner has chosen to load it with debt.

If new ownership comes in and removes the debt like Vinnik did in TB, then the market can generate enough money to run at a much higher budget and fans will be willing to buy more tickets and spend more on the tickets. HOPE sells, and this ownership group has removed that crucial element from the equation. A new ownership group would simply have to come in a sign the big 3 to immediately restore HOPE and re-ignite the fanbase.

I'm pretty sure you have been adamant that you won't be spending a dime until EM is gone, that's a bit different, but welcoming all the same. My apologies

I also don't really agree with your financial analysis, mostly because it isn't based on anything we know for sure. There isn't much tangible evidence that the team itself runs a profit, and much of what we have heard over the years is that it doesn't. What I will say is that it is unreasonable to include non hockey related revenue into your equations. The owner is allowed to profit from owning the team, and the best way to do that without crippling a team that doesn't make a lot of money on it's own is to use non hockey related revenues. I think people should get comfortable with the idea that we shouldn't expect an owner to use non hockey related revenues to fund the team if they don't want to; that is fair I would say.

I agree that removing the debt would be great, but I think you're miss understanding the market. It doesn't generate a lot of profit at all, I don't think that can be reasonable argued using any numbers that we have at our disposal. You keep trying to add in non hockey related revenues, which I think is wrong to do when we're talking about the hockey team. At the very least that is a profit margin that ownership is entitled to.

Glad to see that you're now willing to support the team with EM as a partner.

 

[DrunkUncleDenis]

lol....nice computer screen shot in the background. And on a throwaway imgur account, too.

Oh, FWIW I ran his IP and it's Italian.

(checked with mysens before posting this information, just in case of any disclosure issues).

 

[JD1]

Ottawa and Tampa Bay generate approx the same annual revenue. Why are they cup contenders trying to acquire Karlsson to add to its 3-4 superstars, and Ottawa is having to sell-off our 1 superstar?

Seriously curious what your take is on this?

because they have ownership that is prepared to spend at levels that outstrip revenues and we don't