Silver Seven Senators Remain at Odds with Outside Scouting Consensus

[Ice-Tray]

In so many other drafts people were pissed off that the Sens didn't go off the board & reach for some potential home run. This yr they go off the board & people think somehow they screwed up because they didn't stick with consensus rankings. How do you please everyone given most have no idea who most of these prospects are with so few viewings on all of them?

Every team makes mistakes & pick some wrong prospects & every yr some team get lucky including the Sens with some early &/or late rd picks. I tend to assume this is another typical draft yr where they will hit on some guys & miss with others. The big hope is that they hit with the guys picked early in the draft than later because those guys get more press & are argued over more whereas people expect a lot less from guys drafted later. I also like the direction of the team, they seem to me to be building a future playoff team with size, skill, speed & scoring ability on all lines. They are also looking to have a big mobile backend that can also contribute a little offensively.

You don’t. Trent politely explained that he lives in reality when it comes to knowledge about drafting, draft lists, and draft eligible players, while fans live in an alternate reality that relies on limited to no information in general, and definitely no inside information.

Trent basically patted angry fans on the head and said ‘there there little guy, it’s all good’.

 

[DrSense]

Most of this seems to be coming from Wheeler's failing draft grade. But keep in mind Wheeler is a bit sheepish about Ottawa in a lot of ways, mostly because he's been made to look pretty bad based on the prospects he gambled on dropping in his rankings over the last few years. He probably cringes every time he watches Sens highlights and curses Trent Mann.

In 2018, Wheeler went off the board and ranked Brady Tkackuk #9. Beside the Athletic (Cory Pronman did the same), no one else had him below #4 in the rankings out there. Accordingly, he was critical of our pick after the draft. So whether he chooses to admit it or not, at least unconsciously he had a vested interested in seeing Tkachuk not have success as a means to validate one of his only interesting takes from his personal 2018 ranking. When you're alone with a ranking like this, it makes it clear this is squarely on your own personal judgement, so the stakes are high when this is basically your profession to write about this stuff as an expert. Obviously his take does not look good at this point, so every time he sees Brady in the Sens uniform doing something well, he likely throws up in his mouth a little bit.

Then last year, Wheeler once again decided to go with an outlier in the top 10, putting Stutzle at #7. This one was perhaps even more out there, because only one other ranking had Stutzle outside the top 3, and that was at #4. And almost everyone believed there was a consensus top 3, with many having Jimmy at #2. But Wheeler placed Rossi, Raymond, Holtz and Drysdale ahead of Stutzle as his "interesting / original" ranking of 2020, that was clearly a personal take once again.

Fast forward to last season, with Stutzle and Tkachuk thriving and looking like arguably the best guys from each of their respective draft classes, Wheeler has to be hoping everyone just forgets about those two rankings. And when the Sens draft someone, I can't help but wonder whether he hopes are scout can eat some humble pie at some point. He's been losing badly second guessing the Sens so far, but likely sees himself all in, so not surprised. At the same time, Boucher WAS off the board, so there is no major shame putting a "failing grade" basically in line with deviation from the public consensus. I'd probably call it something else other than "failing" given the arrogance of that statement when the kids haven't played it out yet, but he's trying to be interesting and help sell subscriptions, so not a major issue.

As a side note, in 2019 Wheeler's big outlier was Seider at #35. Again, probably the worst possible guy to put your own reputation on the line, when he ends up being a top 10 pick (even though consensus was around #20) and looks like he should have been drafted even higher.

Tough run for Wheeler, basically. Feel for the guy, and as such, don't see much reason to be upset about our scouts going off the board a bit.

 

[BondraTime]

Most of this seems to be coming from Wheeler's failing draft grade. But keep in mind Wheeler is a bit sheepish about Ottawa in a lot of ways, mostly because he's been made to look pretty bad based on the prospects he gambled on dropping in his rankings over the last few years. He probably cringes every time he watches Sens highlights and curses Trent Mann.

In 2018, Wheeler went off the board and ranked Brady Tkackuk #9. Beside the Athletic (Cory Pronman did the same), no one else had him below #4 in the rankings out there. Accordingly, he was critical of our pick after the draft. So whether he chooses to admit it or not, at least unconsciously he had a vested interested in seeing Tkachuk not have success as a means to validate one of his only interesting takes from his personal 2018 ranking. When you're alone with a ranking like this, it makes it clear this is squarely on your own personal judgement, so the stakes are high when this is basically your profession to write about this stuff as an expert. Obviously his take does not look good at this point, so every time he sees Brady in the Sens uniform doing something well, he likely throws up in his mouth a little bit.

Then last year, Wheeler once again decided to go with an outlier in the top 10, putting Stutzle at #7. This one was perhaps even more out there, because only one other ranking had Stutzle outside the top 3, and that was at #4. And almost everyone believed there was a consensus top 3, with many having Jimmy at #2. But Wheeler placed Rossi, Raymond, Holtz and Drysdale ahead of Stutzle as his "interesting / original" ranking of 2020, that was clearly a personal take once again.

Fast forward to last season, with Stutzle and Tkachuk thriving and looking like arguably the best guys from each of their respective draft classes, Wheeler has to be hoping everyone just forgets about those two rankings. And when the Sens draft someone, I can't help but wonder whether he hopes are scout can eat some humble pie at some point. He's been losing badly second guessing the Sens so far, but likely sees himself all in, so not surprised. At the same time, Boucher WAS off the board, so there is no major shame putting a "failing grade" basically in line with deviation from the public consensus. I'd probably call it something else other than "failing" given the arrogance of that statement when the kids haven't played it out yet, but he's trying to be interesting and help sell subscriptions, so not a major issue.

As a side note, in 2019 Wheeler's big outlier was Seider at #35. Again, probably the worst possible guy to put your own reputation on the line, when he ends up being a top 10 pick (even though consensus was around #20) and looks like he should have been drafted even higher.

Tough run for Wheeler, basically. Feel for the guy, and as such, don't see much reason to be upset about our scouts going off the board a bit.

Stutzle - 7th by Wheeler
Sanderson -17th by Wheeler
Grieg - 65th by Wheeler

Also laughed at Kleven, Levi, Sokolov and Daoust picks.

He went 0/7 last year regarding the Sens picks.

 

[aragorn]

Reading a tweet on here somewhere where the Sens called the GM of Ostapchuk's team as well as calling the opposition coaches & GMs to ask their opinion of Ostapchuk tells me that they would have done the same due diligence on Boucher. And apparently lots of NHL teams do this which should be expected. Not only would they have talked to the people in charge of the US program he is in given they have drafted others from that same program & know these guys by now well enough to trust them.

They probably also talked to the scouts & coaches of Boston U to find out why they recruited him & got info there as well. This pick wasn't a guess, but very well researched to put together the best possible profile of this player they possibly could & decided he would fit their program & what they are building here best.

They could also easily ask some of the US players they drafted who went through the same program who know him. It's clear that Tkachuk, Sanderson & Kleven are very happy with the pick & it's likely he's coming to a team that has also drafted a number of his buddies. Tkachuk was right about Norris being a great player & I'm sure he's right about Boucher too & part of the overall due diligence.

 

[DrSense]

Reading a tweet on here somewhere where the Sens called the GM of Ostapchuk's team as well as calling the opposition coaches & GMs to ask their opinion of Ostapchuk tells me that they would have done the same due diligence on Boucher. And apparently lots of NHL teams do this which should be expected. Not only would they have talked to the people in charge of the US program he is in given they have drafted others from that same program & know these guys by now well enough to trust them.

They probably also talked to the scouts & coaches of Boston U to find out why they recruited him & got info there as well. This pick wasn't a guess, but very well researched to put together the best possible profile of this player they possibly could & decided he would fit their program & what they are building here best.

They could also easily ask some of the US players they drafted who went through the same program who know him. It's clear that Tkachuk, Sanderson & Kleven are very happy with the pick & it's likely he's coming to a team that has also drafted a number of his buddies. Tkachuk was right about Norris being a great player & I'm sure he's right about Boucher too & part of the overall due diligence.

The Sens have super deep connections into the US program, and reading quotes like that of Sean Behrens on how Boucher was the most underrated forward and the toughest forward he went against this year in practice (including Lucius), made me realize the Sens probably had that type of intel, but 10x more.

 

[TkachukNorrisFacts]

my question is what assessments or method are you using to support your statement that the Senators drafting record is better than all other NHL teams?

That list of quality NHL players they keep drafting. I'm sure some people might try to name a team or two or argue about semantics, but to me it's pretty clear. The Ottawa Senators have been pretty much setting the standard on how to draft and at the very least have to be in the conversation when it comes to who's the best at it.

 

[DaveMatthew]

Ceci has been bad in most of those 500 games. He's a replacement level D and that's a disappointing result for a 15th OVR pick, even if he's played in a lot of games.

I think Stanley is probably the worst pick they've made in the 1st round. Not sure he'll ever be more than a bottom pairing D. Suppose you could also call him a miss too. I just never had any faith in him ending up a top 4 D.

Roslovic had 34P/48GP this past year, while White had 18P/45GP. Roslovic is a tier above talent-wise and will probably solidify himself as a top 2 line center, while I'm skeptical White ever ends up being more than a 3rd liner.

Eh, we'll have to disagree on Roslovic vs. White.

They bring different skillsets. Roslovic has more offensive talent, and can help you out on the PP, but brings next to nothing else. There's a reason why he couldn't crack the top 9 in Winnipeg, and why even after being productive in Columbus, still ended up as a healthy scratch in April. White has a better all-around game, and can be utilized in more situations, but is limited offensively.

Neither guy is a top-6 player, or projects to be a top-6 player, on a good team. Both have to play relatively sheltered, specific minutes.

 

[stempniaksen]

Probably important to note that what Wheeler values in a prospect is vastly different than what Mann/Dorion seem to put an emphasis on. From that perspective it's not a huge surprise he'd be lower than the consensus on guys like Tkachuk/Sanderson/Greig/Kleven/Boucher (I'm admittedly shocked he had Timmy that low).

That being said, part of evolving as a scout means taking in new information and I think there's something to be said about the way the Senators are going about things. I don't always agree with the approach these days, but if they keep cranking out NHLer's you need to give credit where credit is due (something Wheeler seems to be having a hard time doing).

I don't think you can fully discredit a guy like Wheeler, who clearly ha an eye identifying a certain type of talent, despite what is a very clear blind spot in his process.

 

[Masked]

I don't think you can fully discredit a guy like Wheeler, who clearly ha an eye identifying a certain type of talent, despite what is a very clear blind spot in his process.

A better question is why should you even credit Wheeler at all? Other than a platform, what does he bring to the table when it comes to scouting NHL prospects?

 

[Xspyrit]

Suddenly Ceci is a good player and pick?

Did hell freeze over while I was asleep?

He got a bad rep here in his last 2-3 seasons but it's because he was played way over his head ever since Boucher became the coach (and Dorion the GM). I mean, he was deployed as top-15 shutdown NHL D-man in ES+PK TOI/GP, which is downright crazy. Too much DZ% starts, too much QoC and not enough QoT... Talk about putting someone in a position to NOT succeed. In Toronto, it was not as bad but still a bit too much relied upon. He looked like he rebuilt confidence last year in a much more reasonable role, playing on average 18:31 per game. He was also +18, 2nd with Dumoulin in +/- behind only Kris Letang (2 really good D-men). He was on pace for 26 pts too, for only 1.25 AAV, a really great bargain.

Ceci has already played in 549 NHL GP, he's never going to be a star but if NHL teams have finally figured out the player he is and play him like the Pens did last season, he could easily carve out a 1000+ GP career, mostly as a reliable #5, adding more to a blueline depth. He just can't do much more than that and a be a top-3, not that many D-men can actually. It's a very tough job.

In relation to that 2012 draft... obviously we wished we could have picked any of the 4 guys drafted after him (particularly Vasi) but outside of that, we didn't miss on that much. Who's the next better player after these 4? Skjei? McGuinn? McCabe? Sissons at 50th overall? It would have taken a major reach like Parayko (who was drafted #86) to do significantly better

And even among players drafted BEFORE Ceci, there's maybe what? 6 guys clearly better than him. 2012 was not a really good draft* so getting Ceci at #15 wasn't bad at all. We just didn't use him correctly after 2016-17... But all that being said, he returned Nikita Zaitsev (a bit overpaid but decent D-man) and Connor Brown (exceptionnal middle-sixer IMO). Overall, Ceci clearly wasn't a bad lick at all

* Ceci currently 18th in points from this draft class (and he's a D-man) and 4th in GP

In a re-draft of the 2012 first, he'd go in the top 10.

1. Vasilevskiy
2. Forsberg
3. Trouba
4. Rielly
5. Wilson
6. Hertl
7. Dumba
8. Teravainen
9. Ceci

Without even looking, you need Colton Parayko, Jaccob Slavin and Matt Murray in here

 

[stempniaksen]

A better question is why should you even credit Wheeler at all? Other than a platform, what does he bring to the table when it comes to scouting NHL prospects?

I think he does okay when scouting a certain type of prospect. I'm certainly not going to go to bat for him as some be all/end all of information though. I was just try to give some added context as to why the guy who values "skill" more than just about another other scout/writer would butt heads with the Senators current philosophy. If he's going to double down and stick his head in the sand and pretend the Sens way isn't working that's obviously a bad look on him and discredits him a little bit more (to your point).

 

[aragorn]

Probably important to note that what Wheeler values in a prospect is vastly different than what Mann/Dorion seem to put an emphasis on. From that perspective it's not a huge surprise he'd be lower than the consensus on guys like Tkachuk/Sanderson/Greig/Kleven/Boucher (I'm admittedly shocked he had Timmy that low).

That being said, part of evolving as a scout means taking in new information and I think there's something to be said about the way the Senators are going about things. I don't always agree with the approach these days, but if they keep cranking out NHLer's you need to give credit where credit is due (something Wheeler seems to be having a hard time doing).

I don't think you can fully discredit a guy like Wheeler, who clearly ha an eye identifying a certain type of talent, despite what is a very clear blind spot in his process.

I kind of agree with you, Wheeler seems to like the flashy goal scorers & thinks less of the power forward types. I wonder how much experience he has building an NHL team & what his expertise is other than watching the game from his couch. What does he look for in players, what is his expertise in analyzing these players how they skate, edge work, intangibles, character, drive, work ethic & the thousands of other things scouts spend countless hours accumulating data on player profiles.

Every NHL team has sources in place to accumulate this information while some of these internet gurus just go by fancy stats. For example, Ottawa has skating experts to analyze & break down how a player skates (including a figure skating coach) & what would be required to fix it as they did with Stone & others. Of course, they sometimes make mistakes, but this scouting staff & development team has shown time & time again they win more often than they lose & that's what's important in drafting.

They have lots of resources to draw from to help identify positives & negatives with every prospect they are interested in & occasionally go out on a limb with prospects that have high indicators. Their European scout loved Lodin & convinced them he could become a player, we'll see if he was right soon enough. Merilainen was another example of a reach & he seems to have been a great pick so far. Ostapchuk is another example of a guy with high indicators from numerous sources that rated him with a high score of being a good NHL player. Sometimes you win & sometimes you lose, I bet this turns into another good draft for them in future.

 

[DaveMatthew]

Without even looking, you need Colton Parayko, Jaccob Slavin and Matt Murray in here

Was only including 1st rounders. While in hindsight a guy like Slavin is clearly a top pick, at the time, he wasn't in the conversation to be a 1st rounder.

Amongst the players that would were seen as 1st round talents in 2012, Ceci turned out better than most.

 

[Xspyrit]

Stutzle - 7th by Wheeler
Sanderson -17th by Wheeler
Grieg - 65th by Wheeler

Also laughed at Kleven, Levi, Sokolov and Daoust picks.

He went 0/7 last year regarding the Sens picks.

Good to know! Good to know to not take Wheeler seriously (even though we already knew that)

I mean, that's some really bad scouting...

#3- Stutzle - 7th by Wheeler but #2 on McKenzie's list
#5- Sanderson - 17th by Wheeler but #8 on McKenzie's list
#28- Grieg - 65th by Wheeler but #24 on McKenzie's list
#44- Kleven - laugh but #36 on McKenzie's list

Seems pretty good where we got these guys vs McKenzie's list based on some NHL scouts evaluations

#61- Sokolov but#83 on McKenzie's list : was probably a bit underrated because he was an overager but not even 1 year later, this has been proved to be a very good gamble.

Daoust was taken in the 6th round for C'sake. Just some basic scouting shows that he was a potential "breakout prospect", which IMO he would have really done with a full season. One of the Sens prospects I am the most intrigued to follow next season. Small sample sizes in 2021 but he was 16th in PPG in the Q, could see him do some damage next season

Was only including 1st rounders. While in hindsight a guy like Slavin is clearly a top pick, at the time, he wasn't in the conversation to be a 1st rounder.

Amongst the players that would were seen as 1st round talents in 2012, Ceci turned out better than most.

oops true, I read it but forgot... It seems your "only the first round" criteria went under the radar

Yeah, usually later picks are not considered in rounds clearly above them

 

[TheDebater]

I vividly recall in 2016 that there was a pretty strong general consensus that 1. Matthews 2. Laine 3. Puljujarvi were the top 3 players in the draft.

Check it out for yourselves: 2016 NHL Draft Rankings

Almost every list had Jesse Puljujarvi at #3, and when it came down to making a selection on draft day, the Columbus Blue Jackets "shocked" everyone by selecting Pierre Luc Dubois at #3 and ignoring the consensus and all the draft experts opinions.

Dubois was ranked 4th-7th on most lists, even ranked 8th or 10th on a couple of lists (see above link).

Now the question is, did CBJ try to move down? Why did they not move down and grab an extra pick along the way? They arguably made the right choice by taking PLD at #3, as he is possibly the 2nd best player in that draft behind Matthews (ironic that Laine and Dubois were traded for each other last season).

Point being is you take the player you want, and you do not risk moving down when there is uncertainty as to who the other teams want. The only time it makes sense to move back comfortably is if you have 2-3 that you deem to be equal and that you do not care which one you get, which was obviously not the case this year with Ottawa, they wanted Boucher and they got him.

 

[swiftwin]

Ceci was a solid pick that had a solid OHL career tbh.

Ceci and Lazar are a reminder that drafting is only half the battle. Developing is equally as important.

 

[Erik Alfredsson]

All this talk of "moving back". Moving back is the last thing I want Ottawa to do if they're keen on a specific prospect. Have confidence in your scouting and take your guy as soon as you can.

 

[swiftwin]

One thing I noticed in our drafting approach is that we try to find gems based on a player's circumstances instead of relying solely on watching them play and tracking their stats.

For example, I remember that we identified Batherson's circumstances around having a very late growth spurt which might have temporarily negatively impacted his play at the junior level. Or Merilainen being stuck playing second fiddle to Blomqvist. Or how Pinto didn't start playing competitively until he was 15. Or how Formenton was the youngest player in the 2017 draft (He's only 3 days older than Tkachuk, who was drafted the following season).

All these random tidbits can put downward pressure on a player's performance and draft ranking, but ultimately shouldn't affect their true potential.

 

[aragorn]

I vividly recall in 2016 that there was a pretty strong general consensus that 1. Matthews 2. Laine 3. Puljujarvi were the top 3 players in the draft.

Check it out for yourselves: 2016 NHL Draft Rankings

Almost every list had Jesse Puljujarvi at #3, and when it came down to making a selection on draft day, the Columbus Blue Jackets "shocked" everyone by selecting Pierre Luc Dubois at #3 and ignoring the consensus and all the draft experts opinions.

Dubois was ranked 4th-7th on most lists, even ranked 8th or 10th on a couple of lists (see above link).

Now the question is, did CBJ try to move down? Why did they not move down and grab an extra pick along the way? They arguably made the right choice by taking PLD at #3, as he is possibly the 2nd best player in that draft behind Matthews (ironic that Laine and Dubois were traded for each other last season).

Point being is you take the player you want, and you do not risk moving down when there is uncertainty as to who the other teams want. The only time it makes sense to move back comfortably is if you have 2-3 that you deem to be equal and that you do not care which one you get, which was obviously not the case this year with Ottawa, they wanted Boucher and they got him.

And Yakopov a consensus #1 who I didn't want & people arguing how skilled he was. Where is he today?

 

[BondraTime]

Another one of the geniuses down on every Sens pick not named Stutzle last year

 

[FormentonTheFuture]

Another one of the geniuses down on every Sens pick not named Stutzle last year

I don’t understand how somebody can just blatantly ignore obvious progression. Sokolov alone will easily play in the nhl. Doesn’t mean he will end up a star but it’s obvious he will be a player.

 

[BK201]

In 2011 Scheifle was an off the board pick because Couterier was there, Zibanejad wasn't off the board but was heavily criticized for taking him over Couterier who slid past scheifle, mainly because Zibanejad was a late riser mostly pushing into the top 10 from a tournament just before the draft were as Couterier was ranked top 4 all season long and had mono which did effect his draft.

In the end we took the guy with more physical play that stayed under the radar most of the year, and then we drafted Shane prince who played junior with Monohan and Toffoli, then we drafted Pageau because Dorion like his play in playoffs against Jonathon Huberdeau.

These guys are good at drafting and they have very specific reasons why they like players. Rember when the Karlsson pick was criticized? Or tkachuk? Like they probably just don't care what others think anymore.

Edit; Tiffoli to Toffoli

 

[Beech]

I was talking about the 1st round, only. In a re-draft of the 1st, he'd go in the top 10.

Just because there were a few players picked behind him that turned out far better doesn't make him a bad pick at 15. Nikolaj Ehlers at #9 in 2014 isn't a bad pick because David Pastrnak went at #25.

Ceci, despite the fan hate, is carving out a solid NHL career. He managed to play 18+ minutes a night for the 5th best regular season team last year. Unless you think Bryan Murray, Kyle Dubas, Sheldon Keefe, Jim Rutherford, and Mike Sullivan don't know what they're doing...

I'll take their word over the analytics "community" on Twitter.

He's not a superstar. He's not a top pairing player. But he was a good pick.

The draft is a double edged sword. It is about who you take and thus who is left for your competition. The first round is typically 10-15 players deep. We know that picks 1-5 tend to be rock solid. That means that picks 6-32 have 5-10 good, and 17-22 bad. Each time that you make a selection, you pick a player out of one of the two pots. Pick a good and you get a good player and reduce the number of good players left for the teams picking after you. Pick a bad, you end up with a bad player and you leave a bigger pot of good players for the teams after you.

By picking Ceci, the Sens left Vas. for Tampa bay (two cups), Wilson for Washington (one cup), Tera. has ensured that Carolina is competitive, even though they are a poorer market than we are. And Hertle has been a key cog in San Jose. The Sens have had one ECF and unloaded him for even more problems (Hello Niki). In fact other than Jankowski, I would have preferred any of the next 7. The favor the Sens did the next 7 teams is unreal.

It is imperative to pick a good player in round one for the simple reason that you increase the chances of a bad player for all those that come after you. Especially when you pick in the top 1/2.. The bottom half of the 2012 draft is probably better than the top half. Bad picks by teams in the top half ensured that the 10-15 good players remained available.

 

[DaveMatthew]

The draft is a double edged sword. It is about who you take and thus who is left for your competition. The first round is typically 10-15 players deep. We know that picks 1-5 tend to be rock solid. That means that picks 6-32 have 5-10 good, and 17-22 bad. Each time that you make a selection, you pick a player out of one of the two pots. Pick a good and you get a good player and reduce the number of good players left for the teams picking after you. Pick a bad, you end up with a bad player and you leave a bigger pot of good players for the teams after you.

By picking Ceci, the Sens left Vas. for Tampa bay (two cups), Wilson for Washington (one cup), Tera. has ensured that Carolina is competitive, even though they are a poorer market than we are. And Hertle has been a key cog in San Jose. The Sens have had one ECF and unloaded him for even more problems (Hello Niki). In fact other than Jankowski, I would have preferred any of the next 7. The favor the Sens did the next 7 teams is unreal.

It is imperative to pick a good player in round one for the simple reason that you increase the chances of a bad player for all those that come after you. Especially when you pick in the top 1/2.. The bottom half of the 2012 draft is probably better than the top half. Bad picks by teams in the top half ensured that the 10-15 good players remained available.

None of this makes Cody Ceci a bad draft pick at #15.

 

[BK201]

None of this makes Cody Ceci a bad draft pick at #15.

Brian Kilrea said Ceci was the closest player he ever saw that played the same junior game as Drew Doughty.