Also, it was widely reported that the Sens were negotiating the punishment. Was this actually a lower punishment than was originally intended?
My guess would be that the bone the league threw to the Senators was the protection on the pick they gave up.
Because they can choose any pick between 2024 and 2026, it lowers the chance the the team will give up a high pick. While it is still early in the season, the Senators currently project to pick near the top 10.
The Senators also get a break because their cupboards are bare due to how few draft picks they accrued during the rebuild, and how many picks they burned for budget friendly veterans as they tried to force a winning team during the rebuild to save season-ticket revenue. Getting a 1st round talent sooner to contribute on an ELC has a lot of value to this team. Whoever they draft in 2026 may not be ready until 5 or 6 years from now. By then, the window with Giroux here and all the RFAs on underpriced contracts is closed.
Also, the Senators have had very few 1st or 2nd round picks over the last few years. 2021 was the last draft where the Senators had multiple picks in the top 2 or 3 rounds. The nature of the 2021 draft meant that 1st or 2nd round picks outside of the first few players taken in the first round didn't have the same value or certainty as normal 1st or 2nd round picks. Out of the previous two drafts, the Senators have only had one pick in the first two rounds (64th overall). They only had 5 picks total last year (3 in the 7th round). They already don't have their 2026 2nd, and the pick they recouped from the Debrincat trade is likely to be at the end of the 1st round as Boston projects to win the Atlantic.
The above is a long way of saying, they mismanaged their draft capitol and badly need first round picks sooner rather than later in order to inject ELC talent into their roster during their window to win. Not having to give up a 1st until 2026 is a huge consolation.
On a side note, there is still a small chance that the Senators get off easier here. Remember what happened with New Jersey? Perhaps the league needed to make a show of this for various reasons, and come 2026 when it is time to give up the pick, they will re-evaluate and allow a lesser punishment, like Ottawa dropping to the last pick of the round rather than giving up a pick entirely.