Confirmed with Link: Senators are for sale - and it’s a Gong Show

[Gil Gunderson]

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

The one thing I worry about, is a group that cares more about the land and development, than the hockey team. Hopefully who is chosen has a healthy interest in both sides of the equation, and puts full effort both on and off the ice.

 

[GCK]

Mick,

basic math: Eastern Ontario/north western Quebec... 1,5 million people.. Those of Franco heritage and live East of Ottawa, will opt for Montreal. I have ties to Cornwall, most Cornwall residents see Montreal as their "going out option".

We are talking 1,1 M left.

dismiss younger than 14.. they are not about to go to a Maroon 5 concert..not without Mom or Dad... Now dismiss 75 and over... at the risk of causing a shit storm, lets be real.

so out goes 30%..add the injured, the handicapped...knock off a further 5%

net total ~ 700,000 people, hale and in the 15-75 age group.

now the hard analysis: $200 a ticket for a concert...$20-$30 to park, $20-$50 inside on stuff. we are talking a $600 outing... How many people can afford that... 50% of society.

so ~ 350,000 people.

Now account for taste, for activity (concert versus theatre, versus a boat show, versus a circus, versus the ice capades)... in a big picture sense you can divide that number in 5 to 6 to account for global interest.

350,000 becomes 60,00-70,000

so a concert will have 60,000 to 70,000 possible fans... needing 15,000 to 20,000 to fill a place....means 1 in 3 to 1 in 3 1/2 people. so imagine a rock concert a month... you are asking that 70,000 to attend 3 concerts a year...each...at $600 a pop.. or ~ $1800.

By comparison, Montreal, Toronto and Vancouver are in the 1:10 to 1:20... you now ask a concert goer to attend 1/2 to 1 concert a year at $600....

Just terrible basic math. Do you know what the total attendance was at Bluesfest last year ? 1.2M.

 

[Micklebot]

Mick,

basic math: Eastern Ontario/north western Quebec... 1,5 million people.. Those of Franco heritage and live East of Ottawa, will opt for Montreal. I have ties to Cornwall, most Cornwall residents see Montreal as their "going out option".

We are talking 1,1 M left.

dismiss younger than 14.. they are not about to go to a Maroon 5 concert..not without Mom or Dad... Now dismiss 75 and over... at the risk of causing a shit storm, lets be real.

so out goes 30%..add the injured, the handicapped...knock off a further 5%

net total ~ 700,000 people, hale and in the 15-75 age group.

now the hard analysis: $200 a ticket for a concert...$20-$30 to park, $20-$50 inside on stuff. we are talking a $600 outing... How many people can afford that... 50% of society.

so ~ 350,000 people.

Now account for taste, for activity (concert versus theatre, versus a boat show, versus a circus, versus the ice capades)... in a big picture sense you can divide that number in 5 to 6 to account for global interest.

350,000 becomes 60,00-70,000

so a concert will have 60,000 to 70,000 possible fans... needing 15,000 to 20,000 to fill a place....means 1 in 3 to 1 in 3 1/2 people. so imagine a rock concert a month... you are asking that 70,000 to attend 3 concerts a year...each...at $600 a pop.. or ~ $1800.

By comparison, Montreal, Toronto and Vancouver are in the 1:10 to 1:20... you now ask a concert goer to attend 1/2 to 1 concert a year at $600....

Your basic math fraught with loads of assumptions just happens to conflict with what people I knew in the industry literally in charge of booking venues told me. Not sure who I should trust anymore...

 

[Relapsing]

Your basic math fraught with loads of assumptions just happens to conflict with what people I knew in the industry literally in charge of booking venues told me. Not sure who I should trust anymore...

Idk why it's even a question you're asking - armchair experts over real life experts, obviously

/s

 

[Masked]

basic math: Eastern Ontario/north western Quebec... 1,5 million people..

You failed on your first statement. Eastern Ontario and the Outaouais has a combined population of over 2 million.

Assen na yo!

 

[Silky Johnson]

did you see the stuff Elliot Freedman was putting out this weekend.

Early bids and early numbers being floated about by perspective buyers where way lower than the 1 billion.

Someone pulled a Cleveland Browns and Desawn Watson on then and skyrocketed the number!!!

The Melnyk girls' are going to love them for it... Let see everyone lese... Ask Baltimore and Lamar Jackson.

WTF are you on about?

If they don't think the price is VIABLE then they won't pay it. No one is "Pulling" anything on anyone. Very smart people are working to get the most or least (depending on the side) for an asset and a couple real estate opportunities.

The number they get to will very likely be workable for the new ownership group from a cash & financing perspective. It relatively rare that major mistakes are made at this level.

 

[OgieO]

Neko Sparks would be an interesting winner. I like that he (and supposedly others in the group) come from the entertainment industry. Having such a large group is a bit scary though, more owners = more room for conflict perhaps?

Whoever wins, I hope they have marketing power with them and bring creative ideas to promote the team. I also hope they allow the team to be a cap team and invest in more resources like pro scouting, analytics, etc.

 

[Beech]

Just terrible basic math. Do you know what the total attendance was at Bluesfest last year ? 1.2M.

an event versus a regular gathering.

they built new stadiums for the world cup. One was temporary and they tore it down. Qatar gets 1/2 million visitors a year, they will get little more. 1/2 million visited for the one of world cup..

the Qatarie league plays to 10,000 fans a game.

the U21 world cup held here in 2003 or 04 (I have forgotten) sold out... how is Athletico doing?
The world cup for women, set an attendance record in 2015... How is the women's league doing?
Hold a game between team Canada and any of the 2-3 major women's teams and you get 15-20 K... How is the women's Hoclkey league doing?

We are a winter nation.. 6 months of it... when summer hits, we are like gaged animals and escape.. so yes, give us a bluesfest and we will go nuts. Now give us 12-24 indoor concerts a year and lets see if they get 20,000 each... not even close. They use to hold country music fests and so on here.. then a few weeks later, book acts.... pffftt!!!!!

Team Canada will come and play a Rugby test at Twin Elms park once every 2-3 years.. It is packed to overflowing. Get yourself a team in the NA pro league (MLR) and see...

Judge regular, repeated activities versus events and one of's.. when you are planning event centers, you had better be able to count on volume.. If that is not there, you have Lansdowne. at 1 million in the metro Ottawa, you are starting to push the limit of size for multi-event hosting.

 

[Beech]

Your basic math fraught with loads of assumptions just happens to conflict with what people I knew in the industry literally in charge of booking venues told me. Not sure who I should trust anymore...

okay...

you know we are heading towards another Lansdowne. The government 9all 3 levels) will pay.. we will pay.. the investors will be laughing.. and 5-10 years time, we will see.

I remember Bryden and his flowery speeches.. then they declared the team bankrupt!!! AHHH huh!!!

1 million, in the metro, another 100 K outside.. if you think 12-24 events at some downtown arena (in addition to teh hockey team) will get 20 k regularly.. f***, do i want to see it.

It took OSEG one year to back off..... I love the ad (What is he doing now, still hawking internet dating sites???).... "YOU The fans talked and we listened...parking is now $15".... UHHHH HuHH... it started out at $30... The 67' once averaged over 7,000 fans.. when the Sens where in the playoffs in the early 2000's.. Now they are at 4,000...with a Sens' team in the toilette!!!

 

[Beech]

You failed on your first statement. Eastern Ontario and the Outaouais has a combined population of over 2 million.

Assen na yo!

keep it growing.

where where you when I needed you? When I ran this territory for a construction company... these numbers where so much less.

Hey Rod Bryden...tell me again about the Ottawa boom.. and how you declared bankruptcy a few months later..

NO.. it ain't. Unless every small town has doubled..

 

[Beech]

WTF are you on about?

If they don't think the price is VIABLE then they won't pay it. No one is "Pulling" anything on anyone. Very smart people are working to get the most or least (depending on the side) for an asset and a couple real estate opportunities.

The number they get to will very likely be workable for the new ownership group from a cash & financing perspective. It relatively rare that major mistakes are made at this level.

separate the two.

1) the team... your goal there is not to make money, but TO NOT LOSE money. Huge difference. buy it at 925 M billion, sell the land, get 100 m-200 m back. so net 725-825 cost.. finance half. you are at 400 M.. at 4-5 %, we are talking 20 M a year in interest.... what you do not want is the team to lose money. That adds.. A team like the Sens is at 150 M and if they go on long playoff runs consistently the next 5-10 years, they will generate a good 20-30 M a year extra.

20 M debt financing plus 10 M in principal payment.. 10 years later, you have paid down 400 to 300 and interest starts falling.

as long as the team does not lose.. so, you better pack the place, increase prices and see 6-8 home playoff dates a year (on average)

2) Lebreton.. get government to pick up a large chunk.. Now hope like heck, you get 2 events a week in there (less the team). I have my doubts, others are more sure.. time will tell

if 1) and 2) lose money...Ouch... for 1) to not lose money, you may have to run it like Eugene did!!!

There is a euphoria here that may not be real. I hope everyone is right. If not, it could get ugly.

 

[Silencio]

keep it growing.

where where you when I needed you? When I ran this territory for a construction company... these numbers where so much less.

Hey Rod Bryden...tell me again about the Ottawa boom.. and how you declared bankruptcy a few months later..

NO.. it ain't. Unless every small town has doubled..

The greater Ottawa-Gatineau area had a population of 1.5 million as of the 2021 census making it the 4th largest metropolitan region in Canada. If we count Eastern Ontario as everything east of Kingston then I can see that 2 million number being accurate.

 

[Micklebot]

okay...

you know we are heading towards another Lansdowne. The government 9all 3 levels) will pay.. we will pay.. the investors will be laughing.. and 5-10 years time, we will see.

I remember Bryden and his flowery speeches.. then they declared the team bankrupt!!! AHHH huh!!!

1 million, in the metro, another 100 K outside.. if you think 12-24 events at some downtown arena (in addition to teh hockey team) will get 20 k regularly.. f***, do i want to see it.

It took OSEG one year to back off..... I love the ad (What is he doing now, still hawking internet dating sites???).... "YOU The fans talked and we listened...parking is now $15".... UHHHH HuHH... it started out at $30... The 67' once averaged over 7,000 fans.. when the Sens where in the playoffs in the early 2000's.. Now they are at 4,000...with a Sens' team in the toilette!!!

What does this have to do with anything I said?

I was pretty specific, people in the business of booking bands in venues told me that bands specifically avoided Ottawa due to the location of the arena, that's from people with first hand knowledge as to why bands refused to book shows here.

I made no mention of how many nights we could sell out for concerts, though I'm not buying your back of the napkin math.

 

[Beech]

You guys are failing to realize something important in all of this.
The revenue generated by a sports team is crap (actually anti-business) compared to other ventures. Billionaires don't buy sports team so that they can make profit of jersey sales...lol
The purchase is of the land - the real estate value of the surrounding - those will always hold up and will only be worth more when it's time to sell.
So, operating at millions at a loss is a normal happening, and one that these billionaires don't pay attention too - because they know that the losses they are taking (cents to dollars) will be meaningless when they sell the team for a large profit.

up to a point.

Ottawa is a small market. yet forced to operate in a bigger league where certain costs are fixed by others. Teh salary cap and perks and privileges to players, staff, etc. Additionally commitments to teh league as a whole.

So, in poor scenarios; like a real down year where fan attendance drops 4-5 K per game and you do not make the playoffs. All the while Cap spending and high dollar on operational costs. You could be looking at 10-30 M in loses..

We see Buffalo, NJ, Detroit, The Sens, The cayotes... prolonged periods of this..

So 20 M a year for 10 years... 2000 Million plus interest.. so you are at 300 M.

it will start mattering.. and start figuring into the equation.

A team must NOT LOSE money.. It need not make..It cannot lose... Or it cannot lose significant dollars..

Now the question becomes, what of Ottawa and teh Sens.. can they support a team, spending to the cap, spending on operations and not lose money.. and what if teh anticipated huge success, does not come?

this is when Euphoria hits reality and vise versa.

 

[Beech]

What does this have to do with anything I said?

I was pretty specific, people in the business of booking bands in venues told me that bands specifically avoided Ottawa due to the location of the arena, that's from people with first hand knowledge as to why bands refused to book shows here.

I made no mention of how many nights we could sell out for concerts, though I'm not buying your back of the napkin math.

because mega bands do not want to be embarrassed by small attendance.

a band sends the roadies in on Thursday to set up. they arrive Thursday night to their hotel..
Friday morning, they are at the venue to rehearse and sound check..
Friday night is teh concert.
back to the hotel. Saturday, at the airport and gone

who cares where it is, what matters? 20 K screaming fans.

Will we get 20 K screaming fans 12-24 times..

an arena needs 3 nights a week of activity. 1 or 2 is the hockey team. That leaves 1 or 2 for other.. 75-80 dates of other...

I hope so...

I hoe everyone is right Mick. otherwise, the Euphorbia we feel now, will be replaced by Melnykian reality...

 

[Micklebot]

because mega bands do not want to be embarrassed by small attendance.

a band sends the roadies in on Thursday to set up. they arrive Thursday night to their hotel..
Friday morning, they are at the venue to rehearse and sound check..
Friday night is teh concert.
back to the hotel. Saturday, at the airport and gone

who cares where it is, what matters? 20 K screaming fans.

Will we get 20 K screaming fans 12-24 times..

an arena needs 3 nights a week of activity. 1 or 2 is the hockey team. That leaves 1 or 2 for other.. 75-80 dates of other...

I hope so...

I hoe everyone is right Mick. otherwise, the Euphorbia we feel now, will be replaced by Melnykian reality...

Ok, so again, first hand knowledge, or you and your napkin, tough choice...

 

[Relapsing]

Put down the keyboards everyone, we have a marketing, event coordinator, market insight, real estate and band manager specialist on the board.

What a dynamic set of skills!

 

[Relapsing]

because mega bands do not want to be embarrassed by small attendance.

.. Wtf is a mega band?

Is that like when two or more super groups join forces to become even more powerful?

 

[FunkySeeFunkyDoo]

Ok, so again, first hand knowledge, or you and your napkin, tough choice...

Could be it was buried back earlier in the thread and I just missed it... but could you repeat exactly what your first hand sources have told you on this topic?

 

[branch]

Who the f*** is Neko Sparks

 

[Micklebot]

Could be it was buried back earlier in the thread and I just missed it... but could you repeat exactly what your first hand sources have told you on this topic?

I used to work with a promoter that booked bands at various venues, and they told me the very obvious fact that one of the reasons bands skip Ottawa is because of the location of the CTC (being in Kanata vice downtown), now this was back around 2004, but I doubt much has changed.

 

[GCK]

because mega bands do not want to be embarrassed by small attendance.

a band sends the roadies in on Thursday to set up. they arrive Thursday night to their hotel..
Friday morning, they are at the venue to rehearse and sound check..
Friday night is teh concert.
back to the hotel. Saturday, at the airport and gone

who cares where it is, what matters? 20 K screaming fans.

Will we get 20 K screaming fans 12-24 times..

an arena needs 3 nights a week of activity. 1 or 2 is the hockey team. That leaves 1 or 2 for other.. 75-80 dates of other...

I hope so...

I hoe everyone is right Mick. otherwise, the Euphorbia we feel now, will be replaced by Melnykian reality...

Your population estimates are far, far off.
In Ottawa it’s about 700K between 15-64, it’s about 1M between 15-64 in the Ottawa/Gatineau CMA.

Your concert attendance numbers are also garbage. Many concerts in indoor arenas are closer to 13-15K due to configuration.

 

[Micklebot]

Who the f*** is Neko Sparks

Behind a pay wall, but...

Another potential Senators suitor is poised to make a bid: The latest on the team's sale

A group led by Los Angeles-based entrepreneur Neko Sparks is preparing a bid to purchase the Senators when the sale process formally opens.

theathletic.com

 

[Adele Dazeem]

up to a point.

Ottawa is a small market. yet forced to operate in a bigger league where certain costs are fixed by others. Teh salary cap and perks and privileges to players, staff, etc. Additionally commitments to teh league as a whole.

So, in poor scenarios; like a real down year where fan attendance drops 4-5 K per game and you do not make the playoffs. All the while Cap spending and high dollar on operational costs. You could be looking at 10-30 M in loses..

We see Buffalo, NJ, Detroit, The Sens, The cayotes... prolonged periods of this..

So 20 M a year for 10 years... 2000 Million plus interest.. so you are at 300 M.

it will start mattering.. and start figuring into the equation.

A team must NOT LOSE money.. It need not make..It cannot lose... Or it cannot lose significant dollars..

Now the question becomes, what of Ottawa and teh Sens.. can they support a team, spending to the cap, spending on operations and not lose money.. and what if teh anticipated huge success, does not come?

this is when Euphoria hits reality and vise versa.

If you're losing for ten years, the salary your players make will not be close to the cap. Hence, less "losses" on the balance sheet.
Ticket sales will always fluctuate, but NHL games (especially in Canada) will always be sought after.
The market has been shaky because of factors that have influenced all markets, not just hockey.