Buffalo Bills Season's End: The Off-Seasons Starts Now
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Dubi Doo
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- Aug 27, 2008
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What's this in regard to? The only tweet I see is 'Tuanon says this is fake news'
Dubi Doo
Registered User
- Aug 27, 2008
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I read his market value is 50M, and Im hoping like hell the Dolphins pay it. Good but not great QB in a division with an elite QB? Yeah, good luck winning division titles with those circumstances.
Jim Bob
RIP RJ
Tua Tagovailoa
Tua Tagovailoa contract and salary cap details, full contract breakdowns, salaries, signing bonus, roster bonus, dead money, and valuations.
I cannot wait for the Dolphins to sign him to his next contract.
Jim Bob
RIP RJ
The contracts for non-elite starting QBs are bonkers right now.
I can’t wait for the dolphins to:
(1) sign Tua long term to a large congract
(2) Fire McDaniels when Tua continue his good, but flawed, play.
(3) Tua to suck with the next coach as McDaniels is the only reason Tua is even decent
(1) sign Tua long term to a large congract
(2) Fire McDaniels when Tua continue his good, but flawed, play.
(3) Tua to suck with the next coach as McDaniels is the only reason Tua is even decent
Jim Bob
RIP RJ
Dubi Doo
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- Aug 27, 2008
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I think teams are starting to figure McDaniel out a bit, or at least what his system is capable of with Tua at the helm, which I guess is what you're saying, haha. I'd be interested to see how that team performs once Hill starts regressing or retires, which isn't too far off.
So many times, I'll watch Tua launch a deep pass that's in the general vicinity of Hill, but because Hill is 5 yards past the DB and can adjust to the ball as good as anyone in the league- it's caught for a big play. Don't get me wrong- Tua is capable of making some nice deep throws, but Hill does a lot of the heavy lifting there.
My favorite thing is, they went all-in trading 1st round picks back to back years and handing out big contracts in hopes to make a run, and they've only made it to the WC and have yet to win the division. They're peaking already (or have peaked), and it resulted in squat. We have Allen, so we'll probably have another shot or two to peak again once this core runs its course. I don't think next year is going to be a down year either. I'm excited as hell for next year.
Tsujimoto
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- Jan 23, 2006
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Whoever coined the name "Tuanon" is my new favorite comedian.
buffalowing88
Registered User
They really are up the creek without a paddle now. Tua is lousy in cold weather and big games, both of which he would need to succeed in if they wanted to be a true contender.
I do think McDaniel could be a very good coach but he's got to learn to adapt his gameplan if the offense isn't clicking right from the start. He'll get there, but he's not at that point yet.
Honestly, if I'm a Dolphins fan, I'd start thinking about the viability of a tank. There's nothing worse than being anchored to an above average quarterback in a conference where three guys are head and shoulders better than the rest.
Those guys (Mahomes, Allen, and Burrow) are going to consistently beat the above average tier when it matters. It's just like the AFC 15 years ago with Roethlisberger, Manning, and Brady dominating the conference. You didn't want to get stuck with a very good but not great QB like Rivers or Palmer back then. That's what Tua and Lamar will be in 2024.
If you don't have one of those 3 guys, you're better off tanking and trying to draft a new generation of those guys. Houston may have done just that last year with Stroud. I think Chicago is going to do that with Caleb Williams in the NFC this year as well.
It's a little surprising to me that we're barely a year removed from talking about whether or not Tua should retire, due to the concussions he's suffered, and people are actually debating whether or not the Dolphins should give Tua a $50M contract. Personally, I wouldn't. But at the same time... I'm hoping the Dolphins do it.
Jim Bob
RIP RJ
The problem the Dolphins have is what do they do at QB if they don't sign him?
That's why the Cards gave Kyler his contract and the Giants signed Jones to his deal. The fear of not having an above average QB like Tua is scarier than giving him a big contract.
Anybody else... for significantly less.
I honestly don't think GMs consider cap efficiency. There's nothing wrong with paying a running-back 5% of the cap, when he's a game-breaker, and term is right. There absolutely is something wrong with paying a middling quarterback 10% of your cap, though. And it's proven out by teams like Denver, Arizona, New York, etc. Cleveland just proved they could get a comparable performance out of Flacco at 20% of the cap-hit. Why aren't the Dolphins paying closer attention to that model, or San Francisco, or Philadephia who are getting by paying their QBs pennies on the dollar?
Jim Bob
RIP RJ
SF and Philly are going to have to pay their QBs.
In fact, Hurts has already gotten his 5 yr $255M deal.
Jalen Hurts | NFL Contracts & Salaries | Spotrac.com
Jalen Hurts contract and salary cap details, full contract breakdowns, salaries, signing bonus, roster bonus, dead money, and valuations.
www.spotrac.com
Getting an above average QB on a rookie deal is easier said than done. It's not like the RB position where it is easy to replace a guy that wants a big 2nd contract with a cheap vet or a rookie.
Purdy has two more years on his rookie deal. If he keeps playing the way he has, he gets a monster deal. SF is certainly not going to get tricked into thinking they can draft another day 3 QB and get Purdy-like results.
buffalowing88
Registered User
The thing is, it's not the 90s/2000s anymore. Teams with 'above average' quarterbacks generally don't do much come playoffs. It's a costly sort of purgatory.
Nobody has to overpay mediocre quarterbacks. Like I said, I think most General Mangers just fail to assess. Most...SF and Philly are going to have to pay their QBs.
In fact, Hurts has already gotten his 5 yr $255M deal.
Jalen Hurts | NFL Contracts & Salaries | Spotrac.com
Jalen Hurts contract and salary cap details, full contract breakdowns, salaries, signing bonus, roster bonus, dead money, and valuations.
Getting an above average QB on a rookie deal is easier said than done. It's not like the RB position where it is easy to replace a guy that wants a big 2nd contract with a cheap vet or a rookie.
Purdy has two more years on his rookie deal. If he keeps playing the way he has, he gets a monster deal. SF is certainly not going to get tricked into thinking they can draft another day 3 QB and get Purdy-like results.
The Eagles have committed. They've enjoyed four years of having a starting Quarterback with a sub $1M cap-hit, and they've decided Hurts is their guy. They're telling the league and fans everywhere 'we believe Hurts is capable of leading this team to the ultimate goal, no matter what the team looks like around him;' if they're wrong, their leadership is heading to the unemployment line.
The 49ers and the Dolphins still have time to decide. Only, the 49ers have a history of divesting from quarterbacks they don't believe in. It doesn't matter that Kaepernick took them to the Super Bowl. It doesn't matter that Garoppolo had a sterling record with Shanahan. If it's time to commit or move on, they've proven they'll take their chances on the last pick in the NFL draft rather than invest serious capital in a quarterback they're not completely committed to. And their fans will believe, because there is that history of success.
The Dolphins are in a very different position. They don't have a history of developing quarterbacks post-Marino. They haven't enjoyed sustained success in the post-season. Tannehill is their last starting Quarterback, and Tua's peak is decidedly short of Allen's. This puts their leadership in a bind; if they refuse to pay Tua like Allen/Burrow/Mahomes/Hurts, fans will be outraged because they'll view it as a rebuild (which is the right move, by the way.) But if they commit, they're officially on career-suicide watch (again, my opinion.)
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Husko
Registered User
My Cozen Dylan
Registered User
So I finally had a chance to sit down and try to manipulate the cap as best I could:
Draft Pick Pool per OTC (7 Players): $8,630,895
CUTS
- Mitch Morse
- Jordan Poyer
- Deonte Harty
- Nyheim Hines
- Siran Neal
- Reggie Gilliam
Restructures
- Josh Allen
- Stefon Diggs ($12M savings, it makes 2025 another "can't cut" year but I couldn't really make it work otherwise)
Extensions
- Dion Dawkins (~$5M in savings)
- Taron Johnson (~$3M in savings)
- Rasul Douglas (~$2.5M in savings)
Free Agents Re-signed
- Quinton Morris (2024 Cap Hit: $1.25M)
- Tyrel Dodson (2024 Cap Hit: $3.5M)
- A.J. Epenesa (2024 Cap Hit: $4M)
Tre White agrees to a straight $6M base salary pay cut for 2024.
All of this gets us to 42 players signed (including draft picks) and $14.5M in remaining cap. If Epenesa and Dodson aren't brought back, it's 40 players and $22M in remaining cap.
It's worse than I thought.
Draft Pick Pool per OTC (7 Players): $8,630,895
CUTS
- Mitch Morse
- Jordan Poyer
- Deonte Harty
- Nyheim Hines
- Siran Neal
- Reggie Gilliam
Restructures
- Josh Allen
- Stefon Diggs ($12M savings, it makes 2025 another "can't cut" year but I couldn't really make it work otherwise)
Extensions
- Dion Dawkins (~$5M in savings)
- Taron Johnson (~$3M in savings)
- Rasul Douglas (~$2.5M in savings)
Free Agents Re-signed
- Quinton Morris (2024 Cap Hit: $1.25M)
- Tyrel Dodson (2024 Cap Hit: $3.5M)
- A.J. Epenesa (2024 Cap Hit: $4M)
Tre White agrees to a straight $6M base salary pay cut for 2024.
All of this gets us to 42 players signed (including draft picks) and $14.5M in remaining cap. If Epenesa and Dodson aren't brought back, it's 40 players and $22M in remaining cap.
It's worse than I thought.
SundherDome
I'm tired, Boss.
Joe B just did probably the best one I have seen on his athletic article
Jim Bob
RIP RJ
Husko
Registered User
I think the broader point is that while it's possible to breakthrough with that caliber of QB, it's very hard, because you need a perfect infrastructure around the QB to do so. And once the infrastructure deteriorates (often because you're paying the QB), look at what happened to the Eagles now. Or the Eagles once they paid Wentz. Rams once they paid Goff. Etc.
Jim Bob
RIP RJ
It's hard with an elite QB like Allen, too.
The thing for me is that there is a huge drop off from an above average QB like say Hurts to what you are likely to get from a bargain bin vet or the roll of the dice in the draft.
For every Josh Allen, there is a Josh Rosen.
I can understand why teams would rather pay guys like Hurts and Tua to dip into the FA or draft pools. Especially if they have been good enough that drafting at the top of the draft isn't an immediate option.
Dubi Doo
Registered User
- Aug 27, 2008
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Exactly.
It's easy to say they need to blow it up and draft an elite QB, but they're way more likely to blow it up, draft a QB who will turn out worse than a borderline top-10 guy, and fall into the dreaded ride known as the 'QB carousel'. I know the SB is the holy grail, but the dark pit that we see teams like the Jets enter due to having no option at QB is soul wrenching. I'd rather take my chances with the Cousins of the world, win 10+ games a year, and at least have a ticket to the dance than fall into a 3-5 year window of shit with a small chance of being better than what those borderline top-10 guys can bring.
With the Tua's, Goffs, Cousins, etc...of the world- you at least have winning seasons, and a chance at the playoffs. The issue with Miami is, they're in a conference loaded with QBs better than Tua, and in a division with an elite QB, so their path to the SB is going to be very hard for the next decade. It may make a bit more sense for them to move on, but they also were devasted by injuries at the worst time of the year- similar to the Bills, and it shot their season down the toilet.
It's a tough spot to be in for sure, but man- finding the Allen's of the world is so damn rare, so I'd rather have winning seasons than a rebuild that is more likely to fail anyways. Now, if Tua and co. falter this year, then yeah- start the search, but as long as Tua is performing like a top-10 QB, even if it is due to coaching and personnel, then I don't think it's the time to cut the cord. I'd probably franchise tag him if that's still an option.
Interesting conversation, though!
Jim Bob
RIP RJ
It is crazy right now how loaded the AFC is with top QBs.
Mahomes, Allen, & Burrow as the established guys. Stroud looks like a guy that will be good for Houston moving forward.
Lamar & Tua are both really good regular season QBs who have yet to prove it in the playoffs.
In the NFC, you have Purdy, Dak, Goff, Cousins, and then Love as a young guy. The top 3 in the AFC are on a different level.
Miami with Tua have to be looking at the Bills with Allen like the Bills, Jets, and Dolphins looked at the Patriots with Brady until they knock them out of the top spot. And if Miami couldn't get it done this year with the lead they had with 5 games left and the last game of the year in Miami with the division on the line, it's going to be tough.
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