If there is one thing thats always bothered me about the Leafs, is the ease in which they trade away draft picks, and Im not just talking about first rounders. We should be looking at ways to obtain and stockpile 2-4th round picks..there are always good players who emerge from those rounds in every draft. OK...no guarantees of success, but if you have a lottery with only 30 tickets, you certainly increase the chances of winning the more tickets you buy.
Searching for the Next Elite Number One Center
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If there is one thing thats always bothered me about the Leafs, is the ease in which they trade away draft picks, and Im not just talking about first rounders. We should be looking at ways to obtain and stockpile 2-4th round picks..there are always good players who emerge from those rounds in every draft. OK...no guarantees of success, but if you have a lottery with only 30 tickets, you certainly increase the chances of winning the more tickets you buy.
I second this, but 2nd rounders usually require At least SOMEWHAT established assets, so those are tricky.
3rd and 4th rounders should definitely be targeted though.
3rd and 4th rounders should definitely be targeted though.
Leafidelity
Existentially Drifting
If you're one of those people who consider this season over (like I do), we should have a real shot at a #1 guy from this upcoming draft. Should they have a lottery like last lockout, we stand a good chance at a real high pick. MacKinnion isn't the only solution; guys like Barkov, Monahan etc could also stand a chance to majorly help.
It's going to be hard to evaluate our team or any team till mid July.
It's going to be hard to evaluate our team or any team till mid July.
Jerkini
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- May 31, 2003
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Leafidelity
Existentially Drifting
Indeed. Just doing a super rough calculation, assuming that we get 3 balls, while there's a league wide average of 2 balls per team, then the odds would be:
- 5% chance to pick 1st overall
- 24% chance to pick top 5
- 33% chance to pick top 7
- 46% chance to pick top 10
- 65% chance to pick top 15
- 81% chance to pick top 20
- 94% chance to pick top 25
So our odds of getting a roughly top 5-7 pick wouldn't be great, we'd be talking about a 1 in 4 chance of picking top 5, or a 1 in 3 chance of picking top 7. Definitely possible, but not something we can truly count on.
Well, you specifically said:
In reality, if they have a lottery using the same system as in 2005, our chances are "meh" at a high pick. Roughly a 1-in-4 chance at picking top 5, or a 1-in-3 chance of picking top 7. I guess it depends on your point of view whether you consider that a good or a bad shot at a high pick.
Sundinisagod
****
Considering the luck this franchise has, those numbers are scary as hell. Much better odds of a top 5 with a season, though in shortened season who knows what happens...right now I feel you'll need a top 5 to get one of the elite center prospects in Mackinnon, Barkov, Monahan, and Lindhom.
Lets say we don't get a top 5 pick, I could see Burke going outside of his comfort zone and drafting the Russian Nichushkin, a 6'4" center who plays along the lines of a Rick Nash. I've seen only a bit of him, I'm not sure if he has the playmaking abilities (perhaps even hockey sense?) to be a #1 but he could be dominant #2 with his size and bulldozer style of play.
Leafidelity
Existentially Drifting
I meant that if they have a lottery in general - such as a lottery was had in 05. We fit pretty much any and all criteria for a high pick should it come to a lottery as far as lack of success goes.
Well said.
I think coaching change was even more important than solid goaltending, but now that Wilson's gone, goaltending, the lack of secondary scoring, and grit seem to be our most glaring weaknesses. Hopefully we can address some of those issues from the prospect pool, but goaltending will most likely have to come from the outside.
I'd take Niemi over anyone we currently have in our system. I would not qualify him as a poor goalie, but more of an average one. A better version of Fleury.
We're not talking about poor C depth, but the lack of a #1C superstar. Bruins, for instance.
Just like Kessel, Seguin is a player who was drafted as center, yet doesn't play that position in the NHL. If we're going by draft records, we already have an elite #1C in Kessel.
My maths might be rusty (40+ years ago...), but assuming as an hypothesis 3 balls out of 48, and a worst case scenario of a team with only 1 ball being picked before the Leafs are picked, their chances of having a top-5 pick would be 30.08%.
Bomber0104
Registered User
I have a feeling Boston feels more comfortable using Bergeron and Krecji as centermen for now.
As they say...if it aint broke dont fix it.
They would never use Seguin as a third or forth line center.
Kegs
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- Nov 10, 2010
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it is supposed to be a deep draft year.... the leafs could very well benifit from no season... they may be one of the only teams in the league with three balls in the draw
Kegs
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ya but watchign kessel play would you really say he was suited for centre? he screams winger... he can get away with his lazy back check and overall soft game because he is a super high scoring winger... at center this game would most likely hurt the team even more!
Kegs
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We're the only ones dumb enough to pencil him in as our #1C in our mysterious worlds of "what should have been"s.
I'm sure there are plenty of centers who are not good defensively, and their wingers make up for them: Grabo-Kulemin, Spezza-Alfredsson, etc. As a playmaking center, though, you're in a great position to utilize your great vision to maximum effect.
I don't believe Kessel would have made a bad center, but I rather not see him getting his wrists slashed on every other faceoff. Given Kessel's style of play, I think we'll be able to get a lot of good years out of him (assuming his contract is extended).
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Debatable. Fleury is the definition of a choker in my eyes, and his main advantage over Niemi is having a better team in front of him. I believe Fleury to be criminally overrated.
I personally agree, Fleury isn't that good and is horribly overrated. One of the worst first overall picks in recent history IMO, imagine if the Pens took Eric Staal. Of course one or two of their centers would have to be moved to the wing, it does leave a hole in net but they could have just traded for a goalie.
Crosby, Malkin, E. Staal, J. Staal = crazy
achtungbaby
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- Oct 31, 2006
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It's a snaking draft order in the scenario he's presenting. It's going to be an odd number.
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7even
Offered and lost
I've been trying to wade through the math for the exact calculations myself and it's way too much work
We would indeed fit all the criteria more or less regardless of what the criteria are. But if they structure it like last time (every single pick determined by lottery, 3 balls for the "worst" teams, 2 for the middle teams, 1 ball for the best teams), then we still don't have a particularly great shot at a really high pick. The odds are simply not THAT much better for the bad teams vs. the good ones.
I was guessing 3 balls out of 60, but I could be wrong. Regardless, not a huge difference either way. If it's 3 out of 48, and the average number of balls are removed with each pick (with 60 balls to start this would be 2 balls per pick, with 48 to start it would be 1.6), then we'd have a 29.4% chance of picking top 5, and 40% chance of picking top 7.
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