Blue Jays Discussion: Save some runs for the other games, guys. (Jays score team record 28 runs in Friday night drubbing of Red Sox. Yes, that says 28. In one game)

[Bjindaho]

If I was ownership I’d try to sign these guys long term. They have the vision to succeed. Sure it takes time but I’d rather this way then having AA draft and trade literally every high end prospect to win now and then have nothing left over. AA never had plans to renovate the Dome never had the vision for the future, didn’t think of player development and upgrading the facilities. Dude traded for RA Dickey and annihilated our farm system

AA wasn't President. He had no control over that. Also, AA made some great moves and he made some poor moves. He was criticized for the poor ones quite a bit, but it has to be pointed out that the prospects he traded at the time all had significant risks (The Mets developed Thor's secondary pitches).

I do agree that we should sign both long term.

 

[justashadowof]

A perpetual contender could theoretically have a strong enough pitching staff to severely limit the use of Ohtani in the regular season using him only at the plate then immediately slip his fresh arm into their post season rotation.

 

[Eyedea]

For starters, his Barrel% of 20.9% is higher than at any point in his career (8.5%, 8.6% 5.9%), which means he's hitting the ball squarely more often than he ever has and at elite levels. For context, only Mike Trout has barrel% levels are consistently as high and this is the first year he's ever touched 20% at 21.1%. The other years he was at 18.4%, 15%, and 17.5%. Other elite hitters? Goldschmidt 12.2%, Freeman 11.1%, Vlad 11.2%, and Kirk 8.6%. So either Jansen suddenly became better at making quality contact than some of the best hitters in the MLB, OR his rate will normalize to his career levels (or slightly above) once he's amassed a season's worth of plate appearances (he currently doesn't even have enough PAs to qualify for any leaderboards).

Hasn't this actually been the case though? He's always been a guy with loft, but he struggled against fastballs. There must have been a switch in his approach because he's been pelting fastballs these past two seasons now, increasing his EV and getting more XBHs as a result. 2019-2020 were weird years for him. A lot more grounders, a lot more BIP to straight/away. No this probably isn't sustainable unless you're Yordan or Judge, but once pitchers adjust and throw more offspeed/breaking pitches out of the zone, we'll probably see the walks and OBP climb too.

 

[Woodman19]

Ohtani for your top 4 prospects? Very few organizations wouldn't do that is a nanosecond.

Our top 4 prospects are much different in quality compared to say the Astros top 4.

I really don’t understand the critique of Atkins and Shapiro in this city sometimes. The Jays haven’t been in such a great shape like like this since… maybe the early 90’s…young team with a great farm system, state of the art minor league facilities, plans for renovations to Rogers Centre with the plans to build a new stadium in 10-15 years. What do people want? The players gotta perform don’t blame management for that. Atkins and Shapiro have got the ears of ownership on payroll. After that it’s up to the boys on the field to perform

There is a big difference from a group that is trying to build just a MLB team vs. one that is trying to build an entire organization. In a few years when they are able to renovate the Rogers Centre and give us yet another increase in our revenue stream and it results in higher payrolls to sustain the good farm infrastructure they have setup. This will probably go down as our best management group since the Gillick years, even though it wont stop the AA lovefest.

 

[justashadowof]

Is there still a way to keep both Moreno and Kirk long term? I wonder if Kirk could take on a second position while catching 40 to 50 games a season. Historically 3B is a position catchers can learn. Obviously 1B too. It would be a shame to lose his level of plate discipline. It seems obvious that Kirk will be used as something other than a catcher eventually during his career.

 

[Woodman19]

Is there still a way to keep both Moreno and Kirk long term? I wonder if Kirk could take on a second position while catching 40 to 50 games a season. Historically 3B is a position catchers can learn. Obviously 1B too. It would be a shame to lose his level of plate discipline. It seems obvious that Kirk will be used as something other than a catcher eventually during his career.

no, just DH and Catcher. He is too short to play 1B and hes not (and never will be) Athletic enough to play any position that requires more then 1 step of movement.

 

[Bjindaho]

Is there still a way to keep both Moreno and Kirk long term? I wonder if Kirk could take on a second position while catching 40 to 50 games a season. Historically 3B is a position catchers can learn. Obviously 1B too. It would be a shame to lose his level of plate discipline. It seems obvious that Kirk will be used as something other than a catcher eventually during his career.

Yes, there is a way. It just involves Kirk DHing more.

 

[Discoverer]

Is there still a way to keep both Moreno and Kirk long term? I wonder if Kirk could take on a second position while catching 40 to 50 games a season. Historically 3B is a position catchers can learn. Obviously 1B too. It would be a shame to lose his level of plate discipline. It seems obvious that Kirk will be used as something other than a catcher eventually during his career.

As others have said, Kirk is basically a catcher or a DH for his career. In a scenario where they keep both Kirk and Moreno, though, Moreno is athletic enough that he could probably play multiple other positions - 3B, 2B, corner OF, probably even enough speed to play CF with enough reps.

 

[Eyedea]

Our top 4 prospects are much different in quality compared to say the Astros top 4.

Our top 4 is better, no? Not to suggest that the Astros and Angels would strike a deal around Ohtani, but they're probably the best partner if they're looking at major league pieces in return. Garcia/Javier, Meyers/McCormick, they have an excess amount of pitching and corner OFers. But, Astros need a CF and C (maybe less so if they call up Yainer Diaz).

 

[hockeywiz542]

Should Juan Soto be the Blue Jays' top priority at the MLB trade deadline?

4:16 | July 28, 2022

Shi Davidi and Ken Rosenthal look ahead to the MLB trade deadline and discuss the Yankees' acquisition of Andrew Benintendi, if teams are waiting on a Juan Soto trade, and his potential landing spots.

 

[phillipmike]

Caleb Joseph outlining what some of us thought, Jansen makes Kikuchi a better pitcher.

His exact words were "the return of Danny Jansen is just so evident for people who understand sequencing and game calling. He (Kikuchi) was unpredictable (pitch usage) and Danny made him throw what he needed to throw in certain counts. I was trying to follow along in terms of what he would normally do in terms of patterns and he was not following his normal patterns and you saw some of those swings from the Detroit Tigers last night."

Kikuchi by catcher:
Jansen: 68 tOPS+, 3.50 SO/W, 3.24 ERA in 25 innings (5 Starts) - Record: 3-2
Heineman: 84 tOPS+, 2.22 SO/W, 4.67 ERA in 17.1 innings (4 Starts) - Record: 1-3
Kirk: 90 tOPS+, 1.60 SO/W, 4.00 ERA in 9 innings (2 Starts) - Record: 1-1
Moreno: 149 tOPS+, 1.55 SO/W, 6.91 ERA in 14.1 innings (4 Starts) - Record: 1-3
Collins: 161 tOPS+, 0.67 SO/W, 10.38 ERA in 4.1 innings (2 Starts) - Record: 0-2

Only other catcher he was decent with was Heineman who isnt here anymore. Also doesnt help that in his first 3 starts with the Jays he had 3 different catchers, catching him; Heineman, Kirk, Collins and then Heineman again.





Always liked the Kikuchi signing and still do. Didnt stand much of a chance with getting a different catcher every start early on and when you hit a rough patch your manager would destroy you in the media. With Jansen here, hopefully for every Kikcuhi start and Montoyo gone, i think we will start seeing the Kikucki we paid for. And if Walker can get him to throw his fastball more consistently and for strikes, you will see a better Kikuchi.

 

[Suntouchable13]

Caleb Joseph outlining what some of us thought, Jansen makes Kikuchi a better pitcher.

His exact words were "the return of Danny Jansen is just so evident for people who understand sequencing and game calling. He (Kikuchi) was unpredictable (pitch usage) and Danny made him throw what he needed to throw in certain counts. I was trying to follow along in terms of what he would normally do in terms of patterns and he was not following his normal patterns and you saw some of those swings from the Detroit Tigers last night."

Kikuchi by catcher:
Jansen: 68 tOPS+, 3.50 SO/W, 3.24 ERA in 25 innings (5 Starts)
Kirk: 90 tOPS+, 1.60 SO/W, 4.00 ERA in 9 innings (2 Starts)
Moreno: 149 tOPS+, 1.55 SO/W, 6.91 ERA in 14.1 innings (4 Starts)
Collins: 161 tOPS+, 0.67 SO/W, 10.38 ERA in 4.1 innings (2 Starts)

it's a little unnerving because Jano hasn't been able to stay healthy. What will happen if he gets injured again? Are we going to go into another tailspin?

 

[phillipmike]

it's a little unnerving because Jano hasn't been able to stay healthy. What will happen if he gets injured again? Are we going to go into another tailspin?

Very likely, or we need to grab an experienced defensive catcher again. Or hope Kirk and Moreno can learn how to catch him.

 

[rojac]

If I was ownership I’d try to sign these guys long term. They have the vision to succeed. Sure it takes time but I’d rather this way then having AA draft and trade literally every high end prospect to win now and then have nothing left over. AA never had plans to renovate the Dome never had the vision for the future, didn’t think of player development and upgrading the facilities. Dude traded for RA Dickey and annihilated our farm system

Anthopoulos was only the GM. Renovating the Dome would not have been his job. It would have been Beeston’s. Beeston was the one to start looking at real grass. It also appears that Rogers has loosened the purse strings a fair bit. But I don‘t know if that’s because Shapiro is a better president or if the current powers-that-be at Rogers are simply more Jays-friendly.

 

[Bjindaho]

I don't know that I want Juan Soto. He's going to cost the moon.

I'd be ecstatic with Yastrzemski (like another poster suggested), Syndergaard, and say Joe Jimenez from Detroit.

The first two are pending FA (so their costs shouldn't be prohibitive (and Yas fits the Zimmer replacement criteria) and Jimenez (or any other Detroit K machine) fits the need in the pen.

 

[Discoverer]

it's a little unnerving because Jano hasn't been able to stay healthy. What will happen if he gets injured again? Are we going to go into another tailspin?

For one thing, Kirk has caught a total of 8 innings of Kikuchi, so it's more that just a little early to say Jansen is THE difference maker for him.

And even if he is, would be a Kikuchi thing more than an "every pitcher" thing. Manoah only throws to Kirk, Stripling and Berrios aren't better with one over the other, and Gausman has been by far his best throwing to Kirk.

 

[SDig14]

Zimmer is most valuable in the stretch run and the playoffs with speed and defense. Seems odd to dump him now when his value should show most from September onward. I get the want to get a better hitter, but it's hard to get a better hitter without a downgrade on defense and speed.

Easier to send Collins down and just add a hitter and then call guys back up when rosters expand.

 

[Bjindaho]

Zimmer is most valuable in the stretch run and the playoffs with speed and defense. Seems odd to dump him now when his value should show most from September onward. I get the want to get a better hitter, but it's hard to get a better hitter without a downgrade on defense and speed.

Easier to send Collins down and just add a hitter and then call guys back up when rosters expand.

In this case, I wouldn't be dumping him. Yas is a straight upgrade (good defender and runner with a better bat).

My fear is the tie-game scenario.

Edit: I didn't realize that Collins was even with the Jays. I'm assuming that he is only with the team as an emergency catcher.

 

[Discoverer]

In this case, I wouldn't be dumping him. Yas is a straight upgrade (good defender and runner with a better bat).

My fear is the tie-game scenario.

Edit: I didn't realize that Collins was even with the Jays. I'm assuming that he is only with the team as an emergency catcher.

Yaz has the same sprint speed as Gurriel.

 

[Apotheosis]

Mike Trout, welcome to Toronto!

 

[phillipmike]

Solid first start for Hoglund. Now that he is back and the draft is over, good time to recap the off-season moves;

Gasuman, Chapman and Kikucki:
fWAR: 5.7
bWAR: 3.1
Commitment: $171M over 10 years of commitment
Average Age: 30.33
Prospects gained: 3B/OF Tucker Toman and 2B/3B/SS Cade Doughty

Semien, Ray and Matz:
fWAR: 3.8 (plus -0.3 for Smith, Snead and Logue)
bWAR: 3.0 (plus -0.4 for Smith, Snead and Logue)
Commitment: $334M and 16 years commitment
Average Age: 30.66
Prospects Lost: RHP Gunnar Hoglund, 3B Kevin Smith, RHP Zach Logue and LHP Kirby Snead

Still a solid outcome for the Jays so far. Both Semien and Ray are back from the dead. Terrible starts for both but now they are back on track, same goes for Chapman. Gausman had a great start and has fallen off a little.

Really nothing not to like, looks like the Jays got similar or better production, for half the money, less commitment for "slightly" younger players along with prospects with better ceilings.

Also factoring in that Ray isnt vaccinated so its a non starter to bring him back and Matz is rumored to be in the same boat.

 

[stats1]

So apparently Devers is looking for around 300 million, Red Sox have offered a deal comparable to Matt Olsen’s 168 million deal.. add in the Mookie Betts negotiations and trade… I had no idea how cheap Boston ownership is. These guys own one of the top 2-3 clubs in all of baseball, filled with tradition etc. it’s like the Yankees it’s a license to print money… how the hell do these guys have such a hard time getting their own guys to sign. Would not be surprised if Devers is traded in the winter. I’ll never understand how they let Mookie go for basically nothing. Verdugo is meh, Jeter downs is already 23 and doesn’t look at all ready.

Add in they still haven’t signed Bogaerts yet either

 

[Bjindaho]

Solid first start for Hoglund. Now that he is back and the draft is over, good time to recap the off-season moves;

Gasuman, Chapman and Kikucki:
fWAR: 5.7
bWAR: 3.1
Commitment: $171M over 10 years of commitment
Average Age: 30.33
Prospects gained: 3B/OF Tucker Toman and 2B/3B/SS Cade Doughty

Semien, Ray and Matz:
fWAR: 3.8 (plus -0.3 for Smith, Snead and Logue)
bWAR: 3.0 (plus -0.4 for Smith, Snead and Logue)
Commitment: $334M and 16 years commitment
Average Age: 30.66
Prospects Lost: RHP Gunnar Hoglund, 3B Kevin Smith, RHP Zach Logue and LHP Kirby Snead

Still a solid outcome for the Jays so far. Both Semien and Ray are back from the dead. Terrible starts for both but now they are back on track, same goes for Chapman. Gausman had a great start and has fallen off a little.

Really nothing not to like, looks like the Jays got similar or better production, for half the money, less commitment for "slightly" younger players along with prospects with better ceilings.

Also factoring in that Ray isnt vaccinated so its a non starter to bring him back and Matz is rumored to be in the same boat.

Chapman has a higher fWAR than Semien and seems to be trending up (they have the same 2.1 fWAR since Jun 1, but Chapman's OPS+ is 20 points higher and his D has been better. The kicker there is that that is allowing Biggio and Espinal to play 2B (preferred position).

Actually, looking at the since Jun 1 timeframe, Espinal is at 99, Moreno is 66, Zimmer is 57 and Jano is at 76 with every other player at least at 105 including 6 players with 150 or higher.

 

[phillipmike]

 

[SDig14]

So apparently Devers is looking for around 300 million, Red Sox have offered a deal comparable to Matt Olsen’s 168 million deal.. add in the Mookie Betts negotiations and trade… I had no idea how cheap Boston ownership is. These guys own one of the top 2-3 clubs in all of baseball, filled with tradition etc. it’s like the Yankees it’s a license to print money… how the hell do these guys have such a hard time getting their own guys to sign. Would not be surprised if Devers is traded in the winter. I’ll never understand how they let Mookie go for basically nothing. Verdugo is meh, Jeter downs is already 23 and doesn’t look at all ready.

Add in they still haven’t signed Bogaerts yet either

I don't even think they will sign Bogaerts. I think they signed Story to have him move from 2B to SS once they let Bogaerts go and they will try to get Devers done instead.