GDT: Sabres vs Kings 7 PM ET - TV:MSG Radio: WGR550 - 2024-25 Home Opener!

[Gras]

The analytics are based on the underlying assumption of average shooting skill/finish and average goaltender performance.

The Sabres are shooting like really awful crap right now. But outside of that one save from Markstrom in game 1, I don’t think they’ve really been getting “goalied”.

We heavily out chanced the Kings last night, nearly shutting them out from any chances at 5v5 in the 1st and 2nd periods. But we’ve got no finish in us right now at all.

McCloud had one last night on a wrap around, though I think if it was on his forehand he probably scores there.

 

[Havok89]

Yeah, rewatching that Dahlin play again today makes me sick.

 

[Jim Bob]

The puck luck has been beyond bad for the top 2 pairs.

 

[toddkaz]

It's a weird stat because staring 0-3 shouldn't be met with well only 5 teams have done it and made the playoffs, there are so many different factors that play into a teams success. I would expect a lot of playoff teams might lose 3 or 4 in a row this year.

Considering Ottawa handled Florida, I wouldn't say it is a given that we will be 0-4, but we will see

But statistically speaking those are the odds.

You can spin it any way you want but thats how statistics work.

If Buffalo goes 0-4 and loses to Florida it's only gonna get worse.

The good news is they can always buck the trend.

If only 20% of teams make the playoffs after starting 0-4 then statistically speaking Buffalo has a 20% chance of making the playoffs.

I would imagine betting sites will adjust towards these statistics especially the more games played that go in that direction.

You have a lot of confidence in this team you should go bet on Buffalo to make the playoffs if they lose to Florida. You will make a killing.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

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The puck luck has been beyond bad for the top 2 pairs.

What about ES?

 

[Jim Bob]

What about ES?

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

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Funny, all the complaining about Joki and he seems fine

 

[DapperCam]

To my eye the defense has looked fine. It's the forwards that don't seem to realize the season has started.

 

[sabremike]

The most infuriating thing about last night was the failure to get the game into OT to at least earn a point. Not compiling loser points killed us last season, they have to learn how to get games into OT when it's tied late.

 

[SundherDome]

Ottawa is a far better team than us IMO. They just had historically bad goaltending last year. Their GM went out and fixed it by getting ullmark despite ullmark not wanting to go there. Then Their GM was able to extend ullmark.

I honestly don't feel like we are in the same class as Ottawa with good goaltending. We don't have a Tkachuk or a stutzle.

I'd disagree there. Ottawa's defense is a big liability. Also 8.25 for Ullmark is rough.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

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xGF% is a really bad stat to use for defensemen IMO. For starters, every source seems to calculate it differently.

Natural Stat Trick has Dahlin with a 30% xGF% without Joki, and a 56% with him at Even Strength, for instance, which isn't representative of their actual play quality.

Line Stats - Natural Stat Trick

 

[Sabre the Win]

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The puck luck has been beyond bad for the top 2 pairs.

Puck luck? or just terrible execution?

I get the saying behind puck luck but skating thru life hoping on luck to get you thru it is not sustainable.

All players need to will it.

We've have been complaining about bad puck luck forever now. No more excuses.

 

[Ace]

I don’t know who can watch these top six forwards play the last three games and say it’s some mystical puck luck and not a complete lack of finishing talent. The Cozens line is a disaster. Full stop. No luck involved. Tage hasn’t hit a net on purpose all year. Greenway interfered with a goalie in Europe and he got a lucky goal. His only one. Tuch is catching his own rebound away from full incompetence out there. Shit..I’d say his goal was luck too. Benson actually did get unlucky because time ran out and I’m not even sure the puck luck stats count it because it didn’t happen in the course of the game clock.

So who is getting so unlucky? McLeod, Greenway, Krebs and the 4th line?

I’ve got news for you. They aren’t unlucky. This is who they’ve always been. Something isn’t luck when it’s happening for years and years.

You know whats luck? Dylan Cozens shooting 14.7 percent in a contract year.

That’s luck

 

[pasaluki]

Honestly the Sabres played well objectively especially in the 2nd.
But thats what's already so demoralizing...

It's by far their best effort and level of play so far and it's unworthy of even a single point.