Value of: Sabres three first round picks

[Mrfenn92]

What compensatory pick do the Wild have? Comp for HC and GM was abolished. And you only get a complete pick if a first round pick doesn’t sign with you like Chicago got for Hayes and Rangers did for the Russian who died.

Not signing Filip Johansson 2018 first round pick

 

[captainpaxil]

Vegas pick might be enough for someone to shift around the top five As a flyers fan I'd rather have nemek and a pick than wright

 

[Gstank]

Boeser for Vegas first makes a lot of sense to me.

 

[Mrfenn92]

Don’t trade any of the picks. Keep building up.

 

[Gstank]

Not signing Filip Johansson 2018 first round pick

Wait so he is a UFA? Can someone explain this situation to me

 

[Mrfenn92]

Wait so he is a UFA? Can someone explain this situation to me

He signed a extension with his current shl team and Minnesota had no interest in signing him. So yes he will become a unrestricted free agent June 1st when his rights expire

 

[Cancuks]

Boeser (with extension in place) for Olafsson + Vegas 1st

 

[HabsQC]

Even if a first round pick only has a 25% chance to become an impact NHL player, the probability that at least one does is 1-(1-.25)**3 = 57% . If the chance is 35% instead of 25% for an individual player, then that probability rises to 72%, which is really good. Plus, there are other outcomes, e.g., 2 or 3 of them become impactful, you get a superstar that transcends just being "an impactful player", etc., which are harder to predict.

If I were the sabres I'd keep em all and not trade for an impact player, but --- that's just me.

I see your numbers and somehow it makes me think about Zboril, Senyshyn and Debrusk

 

[Gstank]

He signed a extension with his current shl team and Minnesota had no interest in signing him. So yes he will become a unrestricted free agent June 1st when his rights expire

Hmmm Vancouver might be a good fit for him if he wants to come over

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

What compensatory pick do the Wild have? Comp for HC and GM was abolished. And you only get a complete pick if a first round pick doesn’t sign with you like Chicago got for Hayes and Rangers did for the Russian who died.

We’re probably going to get one when Filip Johansson doesn’t sign. 2018 first rounder.

 

[banks]

I feel Arizona should be considering the same thing. You can't just draft everyone.

Someone like Dumba, or Boeser should definitely be a target for Buffalo, or Arizona.

 

[Diaspora]

MTL #2 for all 3 picks #9 + #16 + #32

As a Sabres fan I'd strongly consider that, though I doubt it would realistically be offered.

 

[Digable5]

Boeser (with extension in place) for Olafsson + Vegas 1st

They will end up having very similar numbers this year and I imagine Olofsson signing a much friendlier deal. I wouldn't even trade a 1st straight up for Boeser because of our depth at W.

C, RHD or G for the picks or no deal, and I am very much agreed with the majority of Sabres fans saying don't take the Tim Murray approach from a few years ago. Continue to build organizational depth.

 

[Djp]

I don't really see it in terms of bundling 3 picks to move up in the draft "NFL Style".

Buffalo are surely going to be keeping their own 1st rounder as well. But working with those other two 1st rounders trying to bring in a quality young player, is definitely something that i could understand from a Buffalo perspective. They really need some sort of jolt to try to pull themselves out of the deep hole they've found themselves in for years now. At some point, you really do end up with too much "maybe" with prospects all competing for the same spots and opportunities and roles in the roster. That doesn't work. So getting a good young player to "accelerate" things a little bit makes sense to me.

Preying on a team that has a potential cap issue that might prohibit them from fitting someone in easily.

-Fiala in MIN.
-Someone out of TBL.
-Boeser out of VAN (though seems kind of redundant with Skinner and Olafsson already in the fold).
-Maybe one of the PHI Defencemen like Provorov? Would be a kind of funny merry-go-round swap with Ristolainen.
-CGY seem like they may have some real business decisions to make, pending what those Gaudreau/Tkachuk extensions look like. Things could get really tight there, and squeeze somebody out.
-PIT could have something shake loose if they want to get Malkin and Letang both retained. Maybe Kapanen for a later 1st?
-CBJ have Laine potentially dangling (though again, kind of redundant with BUF current wingers).
-WPG also seem like they're probably going to be looking to reconfigure or retool some things, and might be enticed to move a good player to free up that room to do something different?


Seems like there are potentially a lot of situations around the league where teams might be open to moving a good player for a 1st round pick or two, to free themselves up to reinvest elsewhere in their lineup up against the cap.


I think the idea of Buffalo (who are already extremely heavy on young/unproven picks/prospects) actually making all three of those 1st round picks really stretches the bounds of what is feasible to incorporate into your lineup all at once like that. I get why Buffalo fans might recoil at the notion of "accelerating" anything, as the attempts to accelerate the rebuild through UFA have been an unmitigated disaster. But i think dealing later 1st round picks for more established and younger NHL talent is a more viable route to that.

Buffalo is keeping theirs and Vegas pick if it’s in the 15-18 range

they are not trading the Vegas pick.

Boeser for Vegas first makes a lot of sense to me.

nooe…

Boeser (with extension in place) for Olafsson + Vegas 1st

no. I’d rather keep olofsson at a much cheaper price than what Boesser thinks he’s worth.

Buffalo dies have to watch its cap space…thry can have a bunch of players getting raises in the next few years.

2022 Olofsson, UPL bridge
2023 Thompson ,Cozens bridge contract at around $3M, Samuelson bridge
2024 Dahlin, Jokiharju, Krebs bridge, Power, Mittlestadt , UPL getting SG money if he proves it.
2025 Peterka and Quinn..both likely get bridge contracts.

the above contracts raise Buffalo $20M+ above their current cap hits.

Buffalo does not need wingers…

assume they sign Olofsson…they also have Tuch, Skinner, one of Mittlestadt/Cozens/Krebs at wing, Peterka, Quinn.
thats 6 wingers

they also drafted wingers in last years draft 3 wingers in the mid 1st- mid 2nd range.

if they were to trade their Vegas pick it would be fir a solid middle pair RD who is 21-24 in age or a proven starting goalie under 28 and under team control for 3+ yearsand not Gibson.

 

[WhereAreTheCookies]

Boeser (with extension in place) for Olafsson + Vegas 1st

Sabres already get similar production from VO while getting less TOI and at a lower cap hit.

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

I don't really see it in terms of bundling 3 picks to move up in the draft "NFL Style".




I think the idea of Buffalo (who are already extremely heavy on young/unproven picks/prospects) actually making all three of those 1st round picks really stretches the bounds of what is feasible to incorporate into your lineup all at once like that. I get why Buffalo fans might recoil at the notion of "accelerating" anything, as the attempts to accelerate the rebuild through UFA have been an unmitigated disaster. But i think dealing later 1st round picks for more established and younger NHL talent is a more viable route to that.

Your post is a solid all around take on the subject. To the bolded, I think in general Buffalo's UFA signings since 2015 have been meh at best, but it was the trades which sunk the team. A thin team light on NHL talent started making quantity for 'quality' deals.

Signing Okposo was good before his horrific health scare, and Skinner is badly over paid but just scored 30 goals on a poor team (with virtually no cap concerns).

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

My recommendation would be to make the picks. Has a team ever had too many high end prospects?

 

[Gstank]

My recommendation would be to make the picks. Has a team ever had too many high end prospects?

No high picks do not equal high end prospects

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

No high picks do not equal high end prospects

Are you suggesting there are better places to find high end prospects than in the first round of the NHL's annual entry draft?

 

[biturbo19]

Your post is a solid all around take on the subject. To the bolded, I think in general Buffalo's UFA signings since 2015 have been meh at best, but it was the trades which sunk the team. A thin team light on NHL talent started making quantity for 'quality' deals.

Signing Okposo was good before his horrific health scare, and Skinner is badly over paid but just scored 30 goals on a poor team (with virtually no cap concerns).

I'm kind of straining to drum up what these calamitous trades actually are for Buffalo?

Obviously the O'Reilly saga didn't go that well. But ultimately, they didn't give up much of consequence to acquire him from the Avs, and while the forced subsequent trade to STL was an L for Buffalo, with the emergence of Tage as a player, it's really not that catastrophic as a whole series on balance. It was also really just a trade forced on the Sabres failing to take that step out of the gutters, which drove O'Reilly away.

They've made a number of little moves here and there, that ultimately seem of little consequence. The Nylander for Jokiharju swap seems like a win for Buffalo, getting out from a draft bust in favor of a solid young defenceman.

There's the whole Eichel thing, but that's again...a unique, forced hand sort of scenario.

As a whole though, i'm struggling to conjure up the really destructive trade examples where Buffalo were mortgaging futures to chase competitive "win now" players. Maybe i'm missing something glaring, but it seems to me that it's been the attempts to patch or fast-track the roster through UFA that have been the bigger problem. The problems that put Buffalo in the unenviable position of being in the basement of the standings, with rosters that were virtually capped out on salary.

 

[Jeremy2020]

I'm kind of straining to drum up what these calamitous trades actually are for Buffalo?

Obviously the O'Reilly saga didn't go that well. But ultimately, they didn't give up much of consequence to acquire him from the Avs, and while the forced subsequent trade to STL was an L for Buffalo, with the emergence of Tage as a player, it's really not that catastrophic as a whole series on balance. It was also really just a trade forced on the Sabres failing to take that step out of the gutters, which drove O'Reilly away.

They've made a number of little moves here and there, that ultimately seem of little consequence. The Nylander for Jokiharju swap seems like a win for Buffalo, getting out from a draft bust in favor of a solid young defenceman.

There's the whole Eichel thing, but that's again...a unique, forced hand sort of scenario.

As a whole though, i'm struggling to conjure up the really destructive trade examples where Buffalo were mortgaging futures to chase competitive "win now" players. Maybe i'm missing something glaring, but it seems to me that it's been the attempts to patch or fast-track the roster through UFA that have been the bigger problem. The problems that put Buffalo in the unenviable position of being in the basement of the standings, with rosters that were virtually capped out on salary.

You're a tad confused on what people mean.. they tried to force prospects up the NHL before they were really ready and didn't have the pipeline to keep the whole organization stocked. The reasons Buffalo fans prefer using the picks is that Quinn / Peterka are probably in the NHL next season.

The Sabres aren't likely making the playoffs next season so using the picks to have players ready to step into the NHL in 2-3 years when the current Sabres talent is coming into it's prime seems much more useful.

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

I'm kind of straining to drum up what these calamitous trades actually are for Buffalo?

Obviously the O'Reilly saga didn't go that well. But ultimately, they didn't give up much of consequence to acquire him from the Avs, and while the forced subsequent trade to STL was an L for Buffalo, with the emergence of Tage as a player, it's really not that catastrophic as a whole series on balance. It was also really just a trade forced on the Sabres failing to take that step out of the gutters, which drove O'Reilly away.

They've made a number of little moves here and there, that ultimately seem of little consequence. The Nylander for Jokiharju swap seems like a win for Buffalo, getting out from a draft bust in favor of a solid young defenceman.

There's the whole Eichel thing, but that's again...a unique, forced hand sort of scenario.

As a whole though, i'm struggling to conjure up the really destructive trade examples where Buffalo were mortgaging futures to chase competitive "win now" players. Maybe i'm missing something glaring, but it seems to me that it's been the attempts to patch or fast-track the roster through UFA that have been the bigger problem. The problems that put Buffalo in the unenviable position of being in the basement of the standings, with rosters that were virtually capped out on salary.

Lehner, Kane, Bogosain, Montour, Fasching

Were the big ticket ones. But they also bleed value all along the way. A 2nd here, a 3rd there etc

 

[MarkusKetterer]

I'm kind of straining to drum up what these calamitous trades actually are for Buffalo?

Obviously the O'Reilly saga didn't go that well. But ultimately, they didn't give up much of consequence to acquire him from the Avs, and while the forced subsequent trade to STL was an L for Buffalo, with the emergence of Tage as a player, it's really not that catastrophic as a whole series on balance. It was also really just a trade forced on the Sabres failing to take that step out of the gutters, which drove O'Reilly away.

They've made a number of little moves here and there, that ultimately seem of little consequence. The Nylander for Jokiharju swap seems like a win for Buffalo, getting out from a draft bust in favor of a solid young defenceman.

There's the whole Eichel thing, but that's again...a unique, forced hand sort of scenario.

As a whole though, i'm struggling to conjure up the really destructive trade examples where Buffalo were mortgaging futures to chase competitive "win now" players. Maybe i'm missing something glaring, but it seems to me that it's been the attempts to patch or fast-track the roster through UFA that have been the bigger problem. The problems that put Buffalo in the unenviable position of being in the basement of the standings, with rosters that were virtually capped out on salary.

Bolded is the stupidity part of the trades:

McNabb + 2nd rounder for Delauriers

2 2nds for Fasching (shoulda been one 2nd)

Armia, 2015 1st, Lemieux, 2nd for Kane + Bogosian (along with trading Stafford + Myers, so 6 assets for 2)

1st rounder for Lehner (shoulda been a 2nd)

1st + Guhle for Montour

Not only did they overpay in every trade, the only thing the Sabres have to show out of all of that is the return they got when trading away Montour. There’s no return (even just by extension) in the Sabres organization for Lehner, Kane, Bogosian, Fasching or Deslauriers.

 

[Djp]

I'm kind of straining to drum up what these calamitous trades actually are for Buffalo?


As a whole though, i'm struggling to conjure up the really destructive trade examples where Buffalo were mortgaging futures to chase competitive "win now" players. Maybe i'm missing something glaring, but it seems to me that it's been the attempts to patch or fast-track the roster through UFA that have been the bigger problem. The problems that put Buffalo in the unenviable position of being in the basement of the standings, with rosters that were virtually capped out on salary.

on Sabres board there have been numerous arguments and disagreements on what Buffalo did.

under Tim Murray buffalo had drafted Reinhart and Eichel and had a ton of prospects in the previous drafts.

from the 2012-2014 drafts they had 4+6+6=16 too 3 round picks + a few other prospects from trades in the same period.

Murray wanted to try and follow ehst Kings and Hawks did with their cup winning teams where they went out and acquired vets to play with the younger players in this 3 ELC years by the young stars.

in the 2015 draft they traded they would have had 4 top 32 draft picks. They traded 3 of them along with 4 of the 16 above prospects they collected.

there were a few other trades they don’t understand all that well. an example was a last minute trade made by buffalo with the kings fir Robyn Regher A Dman to Kings sent 2 future 2nds as a place holder fir a future prospect my next deadline the Sabres coukd decide on after scouting them and then sending the picks back fir that prospect.

no Buffalo has 3 1st round picks. Thry had 3 a few years ago and traded one before in Montour trade.

now they have 3 1sts so some think they want to try and do what they did in 2015 again.

just like the 2012-2015 period with a bunch of top 3 round draft picks…buffalo is in the middle of another run.

in 2012 they had 2 1sts, 2, 3
2013 2 1st, 3 2nd, 1 3rd
2014 was 1, 3 2nd, 3
2015 looked like they’d have 3 1st, 2 2nds,

total 8, 11, 3 if no trades occured ( there were pick trades during the draft im ignoring right now)

now

2021. 2 1st 2 2nd, 2 3rd
2022 3 1st, 2, 3
2023 1st, 3 2nd
2024 1, 2, 3

Total 8, 8, 4

on top of that they had trades that brought in some young players.

But looking at the 4 yrs before these drafts

2008-2011 vs 2017-2020 drafts…

2008-2011… buffalo drafted Ennis, myers, Kassian, Pysyk, Armia who were of note.
2017-2020…buffalo drafted Mittlestadt, UPL, .Bryson, Laaksonrn, Weissbach, Dahlin, Samuelson , Cozens, Johnson, Portillo, Quinn, Peterka.

buffalo has much more in their system prior to the high pick count years.

buffalo needs are RD and a starting goalie…not a winger.

i expect them to use one of the 1sts on a RD. They probably pick a goalie with their late 1st or early 2nd.

the big unknown on what did Murray want to do but coukdnt Which affected the planned rebuild.

the next GM Botterill was an idiot. Fir every good trade he made, there were 3 crap trades.

what actually caused problems in buffalo was the stability. They had too much coach or gm change.

2014 Murray Nolan
2015 Murray bylsma
2016 Murray bylsma
2017 Botterill Housley
2018 Botterill housley
2019 Botterill Krueger
2020 Adams Krueger
2021 Adams Granato
2022 should be same

 

[biturbo19]

Lehner, Kane, Bogosain, Montour, Fasching

Were the big ticket ones. But they also bleed value all along the way. A 2nd here, a 3rd there etc

I guess to me at least, that just looks like fretting about mostly irrelevant marginal details when there's a far bigger organizational problem overshadowing everything. Missing the forest for the trees.

Bleeding a 2nd or 3rd round pick here and there, losing mostly not that valuable players/acquiring mostly not that valuable players for small futures isn't really the reason Buffalo are stuck in this hole. Getting a little bit more value for one of those guys isn't changing the team's fortunes dramatically.

It's the broader brush strokes of team building where things have been an absolute trainwreck. And part of that, has been vacillating between trying to collect far too many prospects and integrate them all simultaneously...while at the same time, occasionally delving into the UFA market to make huge splashes on spendy older players on the downside of their careers. With tumultuous coaching and management on top of it all...just no coherent plan to move the team forward in the rebuild.