Speculation: Sabres Roster Speculation - Pre-season 2023 Edition

[Irie]

The retaliation bit did cross my mind with Quinn, JJ, etc coming up. I do think there is a bit of pressure point in Seattle as you laid out - they have $20m cap but a bunch of spots to fill. They'd likely prefer not paying the max of Borgen's market - not sure how arb treats defensive D these days (tbh Samuelsson might be a comp), but $4.3m feels near the top for him.

Francis was just extended, so he will be there a while, and the Kraken will have a lot of forward money coming off the books in the next three years (10M, 9M, and 11M) and will likely be looking for top nine talent to step right in - in essence, they will be in a pretty ideal place to extend vengence for an offersheet. I would not risk it.

Given Adams and Francis' relationship, I wonder if they could work out something less hostile with the implied leverage of his RFA status still in play. What's the add for Joki + for Borgen?

It would have been less last offseason, but this year, Oleksiak has fallen off as a defensive D, Soucy is likely leaving via free agency, and Larsson is turning 31 with only 2 seasons left on his contract, so their need for Borgen has increased ten-fold in 12 months.

Honestly though, it is pretty hard to read, as it seemed like they had a solid Borgen-lite player in Fleury ready for 3rd line duty, but Hakstol doesn't seem to like him (although the same thing was said of Borgen last year, so who knows). They also added Megna, but he was not very impressive in limited games.

I think it would take more than a late 2nd to start a conversation. But if the offer was good enough, Francis could possibly look to resign Soucy and take the deal for Borgen (Soucy has been very good playing RHD for the Kraken in the past).

EDIT: Browsing the Seattle board, I see posters estimating $1.2, "3rd pairing money," $2.0, and $2.5-3.0. Might be something there.

Yeah, they tend to grossly undervalue contract estimations there, but Francis has been a magician since his time with the Canes in getting players to sign for bargains, and there is no state income tax in Washington, so their estimates may be closer than an educated guess would suggest.

 

[HOOats]

Francis was just extended, so he will be there a while, and the Kraken will have a lot of forward money coming off the books in the next three years (10M, 9M, and 11M) and will likely be looking for top nine talent to step right in - in essence, they will be in a pretty ideal place to extend vengence for an offersheet. I would not risk it.



It would have been less last offseason, but this year, Oleksiak has fallen off as a defensive D, Soucy is likely leaving via free agency, and Larsson is turning 31 with only 2 seasons left on his contract, so their need for Borgen has increased ten-fold in 12 months.

Honestly though, it is pretty hard to read, as it seemed like they had a solid Borgen-lite player in Fleury ready for 3rd line duty, but Hakstol doesn't seem to like him (although the same thing was said of Borgen last year, so who knows). They also added Megna, but he was not very impressive in limited games.

I think it would take more than a late 2nd to start a conversation. But if the offer was good enough, Francis could possibly look to resign Soucy and take the deal for Borgen (Soucy has been very good playing RHD for the Kraken in the past).


Yeah, they tend to grossly undervalue contract estimations there, but Francis has been a magician since his time with the Canes in getting players to sign for bargains, and there is no state income tax in Washington, so their estimates may be closer than an educated guess would suggest.

Thanks for the perspective - I saw some good posts of yours browsing their board.

I like the idea of signing a mid-level FA D (a better Boosh, Mayfield?) AND using Joki + a 2nd/prospect to upgrade another D spot with more experience/physicality. He's still young enough and has flashed some ability that a contender might try to fix/hide him on their third pair. He's fairly cheap at $2.5m, could be retained for one year at $1.25m as a bargain, and is still an RFA. A team in it's window with a tight cap might like getting younger and grabbing a pick in exchange for a more reliable D.

 

[Diaspora]

I didn't like the idea of resigning KO. Is it even more crazy to resign Gus? I thought Gus had more left in the tank out of the two.

I would offer him a good one-year contract, and I expect he would prefer to sign elsewhere for term. It's hard to see him with a spot in 24-25.

 

[Matt Ress]

I would offer him a good one-year contract, and I expect he would prefer to sign elsewhere for term. It's hard to see him with a spot in 24-25.

Makes sense to me. I know we still need leadership in the forward ranks I just don't want to get too young too fast. Maybe in 24-25 some of those ROC grit guys are ready.

 

[Irie]

I like the idea of signing a mid-level FA D (a better Boosh, Mayfield?) AND using Joki + a 2nd/prospect to upgrade another D spot with more experience/physicality. He's still young enough and has flashed some ability that a contender might try to fix/hide him on their third pair. He's fairly cheap at $2.5m, could be retained for one year at $1.25m as a bargain, and is still an RFA. A team in it's window with a tight cap might like getting younger and grabbing a pick in exchange for a more reliable D.

Guys like Mayfield I believe are going to ask for contracts that are too rich and run for way too many years, but if he'd take a 2-3 year deal, I think it's be a smart move.

I still think Joker could find his place and be a pretty good player in the right situation.

I knew a guy who grew up playing in Finland, played in the SM-Liiga and even played for Finland's national team in an international tournament, and we had a long conversation about development and the difference in playing in Europe and coming to NA.

Besides the obvious of rink size and physicality of the game, he said the thing that surprised him the most was the lack of structure in younger leagues in NA as opposed to what all kids are exposed to in Europe. He said by the age of 8 or 9, everyone is playing in pretty rigid systems, even at lower level local leagues - the large rinks require more structure to defend.

Here, most youth hockey would never have structure at the Mite or Squirt level, it doesn't really become common until Bantam and Junior- there is a lot more free-for-all individual improvising as skills are the focus over team-play.

Many kids coming over have a tough time reading the play, improvising, and deciding on the fly what to do.

For guys like Jokiharju who grew up in that very set structured game, adapting to Granato's fluid, shifting structure that asks players to read the ice, read their teammates, and read the situation and adjust on the fly, the adjustment is too much while learning the speed of the NHL at the same time.

I would not be surprised to see Joker go to a more disciplined system where he knows where he has to be and what is expected of him and flourish. Unfortunately, I do not believe he has a ton of value at the moment - maybe a mid to late 2nd?

So I am torn. A late 2nd is not a lot of value to give up for a depth defender that can give the team top 4 depth in a pinch when the club is paper thin on D, but I also wonder if Jokiharju will ever figure things out in the current system, and giving him a shot in an environment that is probably healthier for him seems like the best scenario for the player.

 

[tsujimoto74]

Apparently Nashville fans want at least Kulich/Savoie + #13 for Saros. I wouldn't do it, I don't think Adams either.

Well, there are still some options.

There isn’t one single goalie in the NHL I would trade that for. That’s insanity.

 

[tsujimoto74]

I've watched a ton of Gibson living on the west coast over his career, I tend to disagree as I don't think Gibson's game has really declined so much as the game has changed, and the Duck's defensive structure is completely different than it was under Boudreau or Carlyle.

The Ducks were always a very structured defensive team that shut down passing lanes and kept the puck on one side of the ice.

Gibson is still one of the best goalies in the league when squared and facing shooters straight away, but even in his best seasons, he took terrible angles, and nearly always over slide coming across the ice, which would result in him diving back into the crease and flopping all over if he had to move east-west.

McKenna saying that he hasn't updated his game is a bit misleading, as he was just never a very good lateral positional goalie, but the Ducks strong D did not require him to be.

He’s get eaten alive behind Buffalo’s D if that’s the case. Unless we suddenly become a whoooole lot more structured.

 

[Irie]

He’s get eaten alive behind Buffalo’s D if that’s the case. Unless we suddenly become a whoooole lot more structured.

Exactly what I argued profusely last year when this rumor popped up on these boards.

 

[Dubi Doo]

Adams was already trying to get Gibson. Maybe Gibson changed his mind about Buffalo. It will also certainly be cheaper or almost worth nothing, unlike Helle and even more so Saros. One question is whether he can still be good on the other team.

Gibson has been pretty bad for a while now, no?

Edit: seems like it's already been covered in this thread.

 

[Fjordy]

Marty really hates Gibson (in part because of what McKenna is talking about) and I don't think an employee of the team would have that sort of public condemnation of the guy if there was ever even the hint that he'd be in their plans.

He also said about UPL that he bad.

 

[Jacob582]

He also said about UPL that he bad.

Marty Biron likes talking a whole lot more than this.

 

[Matt Ress]

Guys like Mayfield I believe are going to ask for contracts that are too rich and run for way too many years, but if he'd take a 2-3 year deal, I think it's be a smart move.

I still think Joker could find his place and be a pretty good player in the right situation.

I knew a guy who grew up playing in Finland, played in the SM-Liiga and even played for Finland's national team in an international tournament, and we had a long conversation about development and the difference in playing in Europe and coming to NA.

Besides the obvious of rink size and physicality of the game, he said the thing that surprised him the most was the lack of structure in younger leagues in NA as opposed to what all kids are exposed to in Europe. He said by the age of 8 or 9, everyone is playing in pretty rigid systems, even at lower level local leagues - the large rinks require more structure to defend.

Here, most youth hockey would never have structure at the Mite or Squirt level, it doesn't really become common until Bantam and Junior- there is a lot more free-for-all individual improvising as skills are the focus over team-play.

Many kids coming over have a tough time reading the play, improvising, and deciding on the fly what to do.

For guys like Jokiharju who grew up in that very set structured game, adapting to Granato's fluid, shifting structure that asks players to read the ice, read their teammates, and read the situation and adjust on the fly, the adjustment is too much while learning the speed of the NHL at the same time.

I would not be surprised to see Joker go to a more disciplined system where he knows where he has to be and what is expected of him and flourish. Unfortunately, I do not believe he has a ton of value at the moment - maybe a mid to late 2nd?

So I am torn. A late 2nd is not a lot of value to give up for a depth defender that can give the team top 4 depth in a pinch when the club is paper thin on D, but I also wonder if Jokiharju will ever figure things out in the current system, and giving him a shot in an environment that is probably healthier for him seems like the best scenario for the player.

Nice points. He actually performed better in some past years which could add to your assertions. He turns 24 in a few weeks so he's definitely still in a place where he can find his game but you really want to see some improvement this upcoming season or he could be a deadline sale. I think they hold onto him until then but we'd all like to see an upgrade.

 

[Ace]

If saying we need a better fit instead of better player gets the Joker stans on board with the reality that he can’t play here…then great. Let’s rebrand the conversation and get on the same page. Let him go be average in a Krueger like commitment to playing losing hockey. He’s not average here.

 

[Fjordy]

Guys like Mayfield I believe are going to ask for contracts that are too rich and run for way too many years, but if he'd take a 2-3 year deal, I think it's be a smart move.

Mayfield's projected contract 3.75M x 3Y

 

[TheMistyStranger]

Mayfield's projected contract 3.75M x 3Y

I'd give him 4.5 for 2

 

[Fjordy]

I'd give him 4.5 for 2

I would give 3.75-4M x 3Y, just not sure if he wants to sign for two years.

 

[TheMistyStranger]

I would give 3.75-4M x 3Y, just not sure if he wants to sign for two years.

If that's what it would take to get his name on paper, then sure. But I'd prefer the shorter deal and then both sides can re-evaluate. Either way, he's one of my main targets this offseason.

 

[Der Jaeger]

I’m a big 13F 8 D roster advocate. I think it’s a lot easier to bring up a forward from Rochester and compete, than start trotting out AHL defenders and stay competitive. 2006 playoffs are the case in point.

With this in mind, I’d like Adams to keep what he has (relative) on D and just add.

Samuelsson - Dahlin
Power - xxx
xxx - Jokiharju
Stillman - Lyubushkin

 

[Djp]

I think having Helly and Parayko whould make us so much better so we could compete for the division - in the playoffs everything is possible

Parayko is an anchor you don’t want 4 yrs from now.

Also need to put into consideration that in 4 years from now....

The Cap is expected to be at 92 mil
Skinners $9 mil contract will be coming off the books.
All 3 of Power, Dahlin and Samuelsson will be on long term contracts by then.

I think Parayko still has at least 4 solid years of being a top 4 d man and the last 3 years either have him playing bottom pair minutes and platoon him with a younger cheaper d man.

His contract isn't ideal but when you look at the potential cap situation the sabres could be in, His contract won't hurt us as much as people think.

I would not operste on that cap assumption. Thr cap will not raise significantly until (2) arizona situation is fixed, (2) cable/ streaming revenue is fixed, and (3) they know the next Canadian tv deal— I assume it will be less next one.

the issue is the year before Skinner come off where you have to resign Tuch and the young players want higher contracts. If Skinner said he’d return in summer 2026 with one year left would make things easier.

I mean....his buyout is reasonable.

5M of dead cap is probably worth more than moving two spots though.

His contract is almost all bonus ehich you can’t buy out. His bonus is not july 1. It’s sept 15. you won’t be able to buy out in sept. The two buy out windows are post cup finals and July 1 and a second window could open for teams tied to arbitration cases. Buffalo would not have thst second window based on current roster.

Apparently Nashville fans want at least Kulich/Savoie + #13 for Saros. I wouldn't do it, I don't think Adams either.

Well, there are still some options.

That is insane.
goalies 1 or 2 years to UFA just done get that return. Look at what Miller got. Schneider got 9OA by NJ who was desperate fora replacement goalie give the age of current goalie as a missing piece on a very good team who could still contend for cup.

I read it as UPL, Krebs and EITHER 13 OR Savoie.....not both.

Either way, it's too much for a one-year rental.

1 yr rentals don’t get that.

I didn't like the idea of resigning KO. Is it even more crazy to resign Gus? I thought Gus had more left in the tank out of the two.

I see KO as a locker room leader but is a 13F who plays around 55 games as injury sub vet.

I think a problem with Gus is term where this could be a final contract. Buffalo might only want to do 1 yr

 

[joshjull]

After seeing this (I think @Jim Bob posted this originally) I have zero interest in Gibson:

I was thinking of this as well when I saw he might be available.

 

[Dingo44]

By the numbers: The worst value contract on every NHL team

A look at NHL players who didn't quite live up to their contracts this past season and how much longer those deals will be on the books for.

theathletic.com

Sabres are doing well on the "worst contract" list. Skinner was at the top for a couple of years but is rightly not even mentioned.

Buffalo Sabres

Most Inefficient Contracts in 2022-23

Kyle Okposo: Captain Okposo doesn’t have the skating to be a true impact player anymore, but is still a useful contributor and vital leader, and should look much better at the discounted $2.5 million rate he’s signed for next year rather than the $6 million cap hit he was carrying in 2022-23.

Victor Olofsson scored 28 goals and 12 assists this year but he’s a one-dimensional player with major defensive shortcomings. He’s definitely expensive at $4.75 million.

Henri Jokiharju and Ilya Lyubushkin are totally fine contracts, especially with only one year left and the Sabres possessing oodles of cap space.

 

[joshjull]

I didn't like the idea of resigning KO. Is it even more crazy to resign Gus? I thought Gus had more left in the tank out of the two.

I would hope Girgs has more left in the tank. He’s 6yrs younger than Okposo (29 to 35) with a less nasty injury history.

Why is it crazy to re-sign Girgs? Or Okposo for that matter. I don’t get this mentality at all.

 

[Chainshot]

I didn't like the idea of resigning KO. Is it even more crazy to resign Gus? I thought Gus had more left in the tank out of the two.

The team can't roll out four lines of small players who don't defend.

 

[CaliSabresfan24]

I would hope Girgs has more left in the tank. He’s 6yrs younger than Okposo (29 to 35) with a less nasty injury history.

Why is it crazy to re-sign Girgs? Or Okposo for that matter. I don’t get this mentality at all.

I don't think it's crazy to re sign both of them but you can find improvement. The Okposo resigning is mostly for his leadership and less of his talent. If he wasn't so important to the locker room they wouldn't have resigned him.

The Gus discussion is interesting idk why he's getting the "old guy" label I wouldn't hate if they resign him at the right price but I do wonder if another team gives him an offer he can't refuse

 

[TheMistyStranger]

I don't think it's crazy to re sign both of them but you can find improvement. The Okposo resigning is mostly for his leadership and less of his talent. If he wasn't so important to the locker room they wouldn't have resigned him.

The Gus discussion is interesting idk why he's getting the "old guy" label I wouldn't hate if they resign him at the right price but I do wonder if another team gives him an offer he can't refuse

This is almost certainly KO's last season, imo. Losing both him and Anderson in one offseason could be catastrophic for an insanely young room.

As for Gus, I'd like to keep him, because he's the kind of forward a team like Tampa trades literally all of their draft picks for heading into the playoffs.