Speculation: Sabres Roster Speculation - Pre-season 2023 Edition

[Irie]

Mayfield's projected contract 3.75Mx3

I feel like these contract estimations rarely take into account that there are always some desperate GMs trying to hold onto their jobs that overpay.

I am willing to bet someone gives Mayfield at least 4x4. Wouldn't even surprise me to see some GM give him the Chiarot deal and regret it before the ink has dried.

 

[Fjordy]

I feel like these contract estimations rarely take into account that there are always some desperate GMs trying to hold onto their jobs that overpay.

I am willing to bet someone gives Mayfield at least 4x4. Wouldn't even surprise me to see some GM give him the Chiarot deal and regret it before the ink has dried.

Well, I can only judge from the information that I have. Maybe someone will pay him more, we'll see. Although I think Mayfield is a much better player than Chiarot. Chiarot's metrics have always sucked and everyone knew it except Zito and Yzerman.

 

[joshjull]

I’m looking forward to seeing what Kozak does in training camp. He brings a needed skill set to the prospect pool. I don’t expect him to make the team but want to see how he stacks up at this point of his development.

 

[Djp]

I would hope Girgs has more left in the tank. He’s 6yrs younger than Okposo (29 to 35) with a less nasty injury history.

Why is it crazy to re-sign Girgs? Or Okposo for that matter. I don’t get this mentality at all.

with Girgs is he might want a 3+ yr contract.

in 24/25 season you should expect Kulich, Savoie, Rosen, and others on the Sabres. Ostlund and others the next year.

the issue is roster room Snd flexibility. Do you want to use this roster spot on just a 4 th liner or would you like a player who can fill other lines when needed.

Okposo is more of a 13F leadership role Just for next year.

I feel like these contract estimations rarely take into account that there are always some desperate GMs trying to hold onto their jobs that overpay.

I am willing to bet someone gives Mayfield at least 4x4. Wouldn't even surprise me to see some GM give him the Chiarot deal and regret it before the ink has dried.

Cap issues is going to be the big driver.

how many teams have cap space to sign everyone to where they project? There will be some who get nowhere near thise projections

mayfield is not a solid 2nd pair guy. He’s more of a 4/5 tweener who can play 2nd pair on occasion like during injury but is more of a bottom pair D.

as a bottom pair D is $4M worth it? Only if you have a top 4 D riding a 3 yr ELC

 

[Irie]

Cap issues is going to be the big driver.

how many teams have cap space to sign everyone to where they project? There will be some who get nowhere near thise projections

mayfield is not a solid 2nd pair guy. He’s more of a 4/5 tweener who can play 2nd pair on occasion like during injury but is more of a bottom pair D.

as a bottom pair D is $4M worth it? Only if you have a top 4 D riding a 3 yr ELC

Just like the last two years, I think the cap will squeeze the bottom pairing/bottom 6 players massively, but top 4 defenders will still be coveted and GMs will find space to overpay.

Mayfield is not really a 4/5 tweener. His skillset is less in demand on the isles because they have Pelech and Pulock, but even then he was second in ice time for NY last season, and he would likely have a larger roll on 20+ other teams.

He is definitely slowing down though, and at his age, the risk of signing him for more than a year or two and his play dropping well below the level of his contract is high.

 

[Irie]

If saying we need a better fit instead of better player gets the Joker stans on board with the reality that he can’t play here…then great. Let’s rebrand the conversation and get on the same page. Let him go be average in a Krueger like commitment to playing losing hockey. He’s not average here.

If you were not so busy raging that Joker and Mitts were not NHL players all season, you might have realized that everyone WAS saying exactly that - that Joker was not a fit, that he was being misused and played above his comfort zone in the lineup.

The problem everyone has is not replacing Jokiharju in the top 4, it is just discarding him for nothing when he still has value to the team as defensive depth and is still very young for a defenseman who might figure it out in the near future (common for D like him to have the Tage development curve timeline).

At some point the haters have to question why the coaching staff is continuing to use Joker in the defensive D role Krueger was trying to groom him for, 21+ minutes a night with borderline top pk pair usage. You can blame the player, but it is the same situation of blaming Skinner for being useless playing in that 4th line checking role. To me the appropriate response should be WHY are players being obviously misused. Would there be all the hate if Jokiharju had been playing in Bryson's spot (where he should have been) the past two seasons?

 

[Matt Ress]

I would hope Girgs has more left in the tank. He’s 6yrs younger than Okposo (29 to 35) with a less nasty injury history.

Why is it crazy to re-sign Girgs? Or Okposo for that matter. I don’t get this mentality at all.

I agree. I've just seen folks presume Girgs won't get signed because KO is back. I think we could have gotten by without KO on the ice but leadership will be important.

 

[CaliSabresfan24]

Just like the last two years, I think the cap will squeeze the bottom pairing/bottom 6 players massively, but top 4 defenders will still be coveted and GMs will find space to overpay.

Mayfield is not really a 4/5 tweener. His skillset is less in demand on the isles because they have Pelech and Pulock, but even then he was second in ice time for NY last season, and he would likely have a larger roll on 20+ other teams.

He is definitely slowing down though, and at his age, the risk of signing him for more than a year or two and his play dropping well below the level of his contract is high.

Mayfield had career high in goals, assists and points last season... on the Isles. Imagine how those stats could look in our system? Not to mention he'd be a huge upgrade on our PK. I don't think he's showing signs of slowing down yet at all. Ideally I'd like to sign him to a 3X4

 

[Irie]

Mayfield had career high in goals, assists and points last season... on the Isles. Imagine how those stats could look in our system? Not to mention he'd be a huge upgrade on our PK. I don't think he's showing signs of slowing down yet at all. Ideally I'd like to sign him to a 3X4

Scoring is way up league wide, so having 6 more points while no longer playing in a Trotz system seems about right to me. I honestly don't watch a ton of Isles hockey, but I tuned in for a few games and Mayfield was one of the players I was most interested in watching, and he definitely looks like he has lost a step defensively. Very small sample size, so could have been a few bad games or he was playing dinged up, but I think his defensive metrics were the worst they have been since Capuano was coach. What worries me most is that a lot of Isles fans don't want mayfield back if it is longer than 2 years - that tells me they are also pretty worried about his decline as well.

For the record, I said 2-3 years would be great, but like I said earlier, I don't believe he signs for less than 4x4 (remember, he has been underpayed for a long time and never got that big contract - this is his last chance).

 

[CaliSabresfan24]

Scoring is way up league wide, so having 6 more points while no longer playing in a Trotz system seems about right to me. I honestly don't watch a ton of Isles hockey, but I tuned in for a few games and Mayfield was one of the players I was most interested in watching, and he definitely looks like he has lost a step defensively. Very small sample size, so could have been a few bad games or he was playing dinged up, but I think his defensive metrics were the worst they have been since Capuano was coach. What worries me most is that a lot of Isles fans don't want mayfield back if it is longer than 2 years - that tells me they are also pretty worried about his decline as well.

For the record, I said 2-3 years would be great, but like I said earlier, I don't believe he signs for less than 4x4 (remember, he has been underpayed for a long time and never got that big contract - this is his last chance).

The 4 mil AAV doesn't seem like a terrible over payment but the term is what would make teams hesitant to sign him. Thought I saw somewhere that his PK metrics were good but don't have any prove. I've probably watched the same amount of Isles game as you which is not many either but I'd didn't mind what I saw and think he'd be a good pair with Power.

Not saying Mayfield is perfect fit, obviously there are other opinions that would be acceptable. Long story short, I think most would agree (including yourself) is that Mayfield would be a nice addition with the right contract. It would be interesting to see how free agency turns out

 

[CaliSabresfan24]

I would not operste on that cap assumption. Thr cap will not raise significantly until (2) arizona situation is fixed, (2) cable/ streaming revenue is fixed, and (3) they know the next Canadian tv deal— I assume it will be less next one.

the issue is the year before Skinner come off where you have to resign Tuch and the young players want higher contracts. If Skinner said he’d return in summer 2026 with one year left would make things easier.

I keep seeing that they are expecting the cap to go up a lot. but to your point with the whole Bally Sports situation and how poorly the ESPN experiment has worked out idk how that could be.

 

[Djp]

I keep seeing that they are expecting the cap to go up a lot. but to your point with the whole Bally Sports situation and how poorly the ESPN experiment has worked out idk how that could be.

some think once the escrow thing is paid off because players got paid while owners list money in Covid th3 cap will shoot up.

they also lost planned revenue from not going to the winter games in China.

you have 1B people there. If you can get 1% become nhl fans spending $200 a year on average for streaming and other stuff nhl related stuff that’s $1B in league revenue annually. Each team gets $30B and overhead to NHL that amounts to $15M per team to players.

there is going to be expanded fall out from cable/ streaming situation the next 3+ yrs. This beyond the Bally stuff to all teams possibly losing revenue in local broadcast rights.

I don’t know how much Rogers has lost in Canadian tv deal. I think they have lost a good chunk. I don’t see the revenue going up in next contract without dramatic changes.

when it gets to the point of being raised, the league and players aren’t going to want to go up in one year but instead spread it out over multiple years like $3M-$4M per season

 

[thewookie1]

The cap will likely jump to at least 87/88mil for 24-25 since it’s been kept low in some way artificially.

 

[Sabres]

Bettman said they are still running the numbers but could approach $6 billion in HRR. If they hit that number, the cap should go up to $93,750,000 once the players’ debt is paid off

 

[joshjull]

I keep seeing that they are expecting the cap to go up a lot. but to your point with the whole Bally Sports situation and how poorly the ESPN experiment has worked out idk how that could be.

As @Sabres mentions in his post. Once the debt the players owe is paid off it should go up a decent amount.

 

[Sabres]

I saw Jeff Veillette on Twitter mention annual growth limits but couldn’t find anything else on it. Anyone here know what that number is or how it all works?

 

[Ehran]

I saw Jeff Veillette on Twitter mention annual growth limits but couldn’t find anything else on it. Anyone here know what that number is or how it all works?

I think they were referring to the current and past few years, where even if the hockey related revenue (HRR) grew the salary cap itself would not increase more than $1M until the past due escrow balances were paid back. Thus a "growth limit".

Going forward, assuming that balance is paid off this year, there shouldn't be a growth limit, per this link:

What is the players’ share of the league’s revenue?

The player's share for the current CBA is 50% of actual hockey related revenues (HRR) for the league year ended June 30. (CBA 50.4 (b))

 

[Ace]

The cap is being kept low so owners can recoup their share of the money lost From Covid.

Also this owner spends far below the cap already being kept low to double dip.

All while his franchise has tripled in value but he doesn’t count that and is clearly losing money all over.

Capitalism.

 

[toddkaz]

Jets open for business. Too bad their defense isn't really anything we are looking for aside from Morrissey and that's going to cost more than Chychrun also I don't see them trading him

 

[nickdawg95]

Jets open for business. Too bad their defense isn't really anything we are looking for aside from Morrissey and that's going to cost more than Chychrun also I don't see them trading him

Poink would be a great fit next to power

 

[Fjordy]

Jets open for business. Too bad their defense isn't really anything we are looking for aside from Morrissey and that's going to cost more than Chychrun also I don't see them trading him

Poink would be a great fit next to power

DeMelo makes sense

Pionk great fit?

 

[toddkaz]

DeMelo makes sense

Pionk great fit?
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Pionk's advanced stats are terrible and he makes 5.875m. No thanks! DeMelo much cheaper and right handed but is a free agent after next season. Not sure what Buffalo would give up for him? Winnipeg says they want players back. Can we trick them into Olofsson?

 

[Fjordy]

Pionk's advanced stats are terrible and he makes 5.875m. No thanks! DeMelo much cheaper and right handed but is a free agent after next season. Not sure what Buffalo would give up for him?

Absolutely, Pionk does not suit us in any way, he is bad in defense. DeMelo makes a lot of sense, he seems to be a consistent #4 - #5 D over many seasons, always above average on defense and on PK. Maybe 2nd/Olofsson/UPL/Joki something from this. It's also not certain that it will end up on a year's rent, if he likes it in Buffalo and he's good, they might re-sign him.

 

[Jim Bob]

Who is this year’s ‘Matthew Tkachuk’ on the NHL summer trade market?

Which potentially available players might we be celebrating a year from now as crucial acquisitions?

www.dailyfaceoff.com

A few names that Sabres fans have bounced around are in there.

 

[Fjordy]

Who is this year’s ‘Matthew Tkachuk’ on the NHL summer trade market?

Which potentially available players might we be celebrating a year from now as crucial acquisitions?

www.dailyfaceoff.com

A few names that Sabres fans have bounced around are in there.

Demko and Ullmark

Demko would probably be a good pickup, three more years of 5 million. We could even take Myers from them as cap dump and send Joki to Vancouver if they were interested in him. Although Adams would still need to find the top 4 D, because Myers with his game is now a maximum player of the third pair, but all this is depth.