Speculation: Sabres Roster Speculation - Pre-season 2023 Edition

[EXTRAS]

Any chance Kozak makes the team this year?

 

[Jim Bob]

Any chance Kozak makes the team this year?

Not if they want Mitts and Krebs at center.

 

[HOOats]

Any chance Kozak makes the team this year?

Out of camp? 0%, unless we're hit with a terrible rash of injuries in pre-season.

To play an NHL game this year? 20%. I don't think he's truly NHL-ready yet and he'll benefit from another year in the AHL, but his style of play could fill in okay for a few games if our center depth gets depleted.

 

[markpenske]

m

Any chance Kozak makes the team this year?

Magic 8 balls says...............................................no

 

[Matt Ress]

Out of camp? 0%, unless we're hit with a terrible rash of injuries in pre-season.

To play an NHL game this year? 20% imo. I don't think he's truly NHL-ready yet and will benefit from another year in the AHL, but his style of play could fill in okay for a few games if our center depth gets depleted.

...in a 4th line role. But he wouldn't necessarily have to play C.

 

[debaser66]

I think we can probably shut down this thread for the time being. The only real question is do they go 8 D or 3 G?

13F:

Thompson
Cozens
Tuch
Skinner
Greenway
Peterka
Olofsson
Mittelstadt
Krebs
Jost
Okposo
Girgensons
One of Rousek/Kulich

D:
Dahlin
Power
Samuelsson
Clifton
Johnson
Joker
Stillman
Bryson

G:
Comrie
UPL
Levi

If I had to guess, they are probably going to send Bryson to the minors via waivers and run 13/7/3

I would put Rosen in that group w Kulich/Rousek

 

[Deep Blue Metallic]

I think we can probably shut down this thread for the time being. The only real question is do they go 8 D or 3 G?

13F:

Thompson
Cozens
Tuch
Skinner
Greenway
Peterka
Olofsson
Mittelstadt
Krebs
Jost
Okposo
Girgensons
One of Rousek/Kulich

D:
Dahlin
Power
Samuelsson
Clifton
Johnson
Joker
Stillman
Bryson

G:
Comrie
UPL
Levi

If I had to guess, they are probably going to send Bryson to the minors via waivers and run 13/7/3

I think you nailed it.

Rousek is more likely to stick than Kulich initially. It's the "safe" play.

Despite Adams' happy talk about having 3 NHL-quality goalies, I expect one of them to be sent down or traded/waived before the Christmas break, by which time the Sabres will have a decent read on their goaltending situation. Then one of Kulich, Rosen, or Ryan Johnson gets called up, as their play in Rochester and team need dictates.

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

As soon as some team's goalie goes down in the first few months, KA can get a decent return for Comrie.

 

[TehDoak]

As soon as some team's goalie goes down in the first few months, KA can get a decent return for Comrie.

It'd take multiple injuries for a team to want to take on Comrie at 1.8M.

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

It'd take multiple injuries for a team to want to take on Comrie at 1.8M.

1 yr...sure.

 

[Gras]

It'd take multiple injuries for a team to want to take on Comrie at 1.8M.

If a #1 goes out for the season and they dont have someone ready in the A then yea a team could go for him.

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

If a #1 goes out for the season and they dont have someone ready in the A then yea a team could go for him.

Over half the league has two goalies making 1.5 mil or more, another 4-5 with two goalies over 1 mil. Any team needing a goalie after injury isn't going to bat an eye over 1.8 mil for less than one full season. Comrie likely only returns a 3rd-6th pick depending on the details, but salary cap is a non-factor.

 

[K8fool]

The Athletic has the Sabres projecting to be four points Worse and finish 22nd but they're already backtracking off that projection which comes mostly from Dom's annually skewed numbers.

Buffalo Sabres 2023-24 season preview

After a long and arduous rebuilding process, is this the year the Sabres live up to the hype and finally turn the corner?

theathletic.com

I hope all media actively urinates on the sabres daily until the first ten games have passed. Less baloon popping of yutes

 

[Jim Bob]

Sabres' big question: Is Buffalo strong enough without the puck to match the hype?

Buffalo took a step forward last year, but it hasn't turned the corner just yet. Much of that stems from its play on the back end.

theathletic.com

The 2022-23 Buffalo Sabres were one of the most exciting teams in the league thanks to their high-event play.

Exciting and high-event doesn’t mean playoff caliber. It just means that their games featured a ton of offense — on both ends of the ice.

Buffalo took a huge step forward last year, and much of that is thanks to that offense. But they haven’t turned the corner just yet, and much of that stems from their play on the back end. Even though there are some very clear flaws back in their own zone, the Sabres had a relatively quiet offseason. Only Connor Clifton and Erik Johnson were added, while Ilya Lyubushkin was moved out.

If the Sabres learn how to kill penalties, win faceoffs, and play a more 200 foot game...

 

[Jim Bob]

Expected Buffalo Rosterology Update: Version 1.0

The Buffalo Sabres played their first preseason game yesterday and as a result there was some player movement in our Rosterology.

www.expectedbuffalo.com

 

[EXTRAS]

Will Cozens be on the PK this year?

 

[joshjull]

I actually agree with you guys that WAR/GAR falls far short of it's intended goal. I don't think that a player who is 1 WAR/GAR above another player will literally translate to 1 more win/goal as the stat intends.

Much like I don't think xGF/xGA literally translate to how many goals a team should have scored/gave up. But I do find xGF/xGA extremely useful, especially when comparing ratios, at determining which team generally played better and created/gave up more chances/quality of those chances. Also useful at judging goalie performances.

I do think WAR, GAR and to a greater extent their underlying's of EVO, EVD, PPO, PKD are useful when you view them as what they really are, which are conglomerations, or baskets of underlying counting stats converted into a single number, by giving them all varying weights and then comparing them to the hypothetical "replacement player". (Think of them like an Index, or ETF/Mutual fund in finance).

What part of this doesn't pass the smell test for you guys? Given the context, these results all make perfect sense to me.

I wasn't talking about individual players (@Irie is the one debating you about Cozens).

I was taking issue with you equating WAR/GAR with counting stats like goals, assists, etc. They're completely different things.

Goals, assists, etc are a straightforward tally of how many times a player did something. It's an individual stat with no formula or calculation involved.

Whereas WAR/GAR is not a straightforward tally of anything. It's an attempt to assign a number value to an individual player based heavily on "On Ice" stats not individual ones. It also has subjective/arbitrary elements which are necessary to define certain parameters, like you mention in the bolded.

Cozens
8.5 EVO excellent at even strength offense
-4.1 EVD he wasn't coached to focus on the defensive side of the puck at all, he was told to play Run n' gun, all gas no brakes offense. No surprise that he had poor results here. Similar but not as extreme results as Tage and Skinner who played the same style/system but on a different line.
PPO 2.4, he was good on the PP. No surprise here
SHD -3.2, the Sabres had one of the worst PK in the league and Cozens played a lot of minutes on it. No surprise that he'd have a poor score here.

Dahlin. Excellent at everything besides the PK and taking penalties. He's been under the microscope of the Refs ever since Matthews neck chopped him and gets called for lots of phantom bull sh*t. He also plays with an edge and has a reputation for it.

Girgs, horrific offense, excellent at even strength D. Poor on the PK, because the Sabres have one of the worst PKs in the league and he plays a lot of minutes on it.

Skinner. Outrageous at even strength offense, horrific at even strength defense, good on the pp, doesn't play the pk, great at not taking penalties and great at drawing penalties.

Power. Excellent at even strength offense, struggled at even strength d, lack luster but not bad on the pp and pk. Great at not taking penalties which makes sense as he's not a physical player, didn't draw many penalties (Refs: "gotta earn those calls 'rook!" )

I'm not going to talk about the players. But I will talk about "ES offense" and "ES defense."

I'm going to assume you mean each of those player's 5v5 offense and defense. ES is not a single game state but a catch-all term for several game states: 5v5, 6v5, 5v6, 4v4 and 3v3. Each is handled differently and the types of players that are effective in each is can be different. Though there are some who play in all of them. Players don't really have an ES offensive or defensive game. For example, someone like VO's ability to do something 6v5 is different than his ability to do it 5v5.

I'm surprised ES stats are still a thing. It seems like a bit of a relic with the information we're able to get for the various game states.

Tying this back into the WAR/GAR discussion... Players can play in up to 11 different game states. The 5 listed for ES, there are 3 on the PP (5v4, 5v3, 4v3) and the 3 on PK (4v5, 3v5, 3v4). It's hard for me to envision a reliable catch all number that can assign a value to an individual player using their on-ice stats in those various game states.

 

[CaliSabresfan24]

This is where the poll they posted came from... Terrible take from Whit who has been a huge supporter of the Sabre's

 

[Matt Ress]

I wasn't talking about individual players (@Irie is the one debating you about Cozens).

I was taking issue with you equating WAR/GAR with counting stats like goals, assists, etc. They're completely different things.

Goals, assists, etc are a straightforward tally of how many times a player did something. It's an individual stat with no formula or calculation involved.

Whereas WAR/GAR is not a straightforward tally of anything. It's an attempt to assign a number value to an individual player based heavily on "On Ice" stats not individual ones. It also has subjective/arbitrary elements which are necessary to define certain parameters, like you mention in the bolded.



I'm not going to talk about the players. But I will talk about "ES offense" and "ES defense."

I'm going to assume you mean each of those player's 5v5 offense and defense. ES is not a single game state but a catch-all term for several game states: 5v5, 6v5, 5v6, 4v4 and 3v3. Each is handled differently and the types of players that are effective in each is can be different. Though there are some who play in all of them. Players don't really have an ES offensive or defensive game. For example, someone like VO's ability to do something 6v5 is different than his ability to do it 5v5.

I'm surprised ES stats are still a thing. It seems like a bit of a relic with the information we're able to get for the various game states.

Tying this back into the WAR/GAR discussion... Players can play in up to 11 different game states. The 5 listed for ES, there are 3 on the PP (5v4, 5v3, 4v3) and the 3 on PK (4v5, 3v5, 3v4). It's hard for me to envision a reliable catch all number that can assign a value to an individual player using their on-ice stats in those various game states.

I'm not disputing any of that but just by memory I don't think we did well with the goalie pulled especially considering the solid PP and high powered offense. It would be nice to pull a couple more points from those down a goal games.

 

[Matt Ress]

I'm not disputing any of that but just by memory I don't think we did well with the goalie pulled especially considering the solid PP and high powered offense. It would be nice to pull a couple more points from those down a goal games.

Should have just looked it up first. We were one of the worst teams with the empty net. 3GF vs 17GA. Only the Pens and Flames were worse with the goalie pulled while trailing. Low hanging fruit.

Team Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

 

[Old Navy Goat]

They were embracing the Brett Hull approach that real men don't score empty netters

 

[MarkusKetterer]

Should have just looked it up first. We were one of the worst teams with the empty net. 3GF vs 17GA. Only the Pens and Flames were worse with the goalie pulled while trailing. Low hanging fruit.

Team Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

We also know that they wanted to score pretty goals, as opposed to greasy goals. Because of that, it got them in trouble. Hell, pass around to look for that pretty goal and confuse the D, but then crash the net once you take a shot

 

[Matt Ress]

We also know that they wanted to score pretty goals, as opposed to greasy goals. Because of that, it got them in trouble. Hell, pass around to look for that pretty goal and confuse the D, but then crash the net once you take a shot

Maybe it's not in their DNA but improving to an average team directly leads to points in the standings. Some of the top teams were Dallas, Detroit, Nashville, Rags and even Canucks. Maybe it's just one of those things that bounce your way one season.

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[Fjordy]

I wouldn't be surprised if Adams trades Olofsson right after or even before Kane sign.