- Feb 3, 2015
- 4,946
- 4,751
I actually agree with you guys that WAR/GAR falls far short of it's intended goal. I don't think that a player who is 1 WAR/GAR above another player will literally translate to 1 more win/goal as the stat intends.
Much like I don't think xGF/xGA literally translate to how many goals a team should have scored/gave up. But I do find xGF/xGA extremely useful, especially when comparing ratios, at determining which team generally played better and created/gave up more chances/quality of those chances. Also useful at judging goalie performances.
I do think WAR, GAR and to a greater extent their underlying's of EVO, EVD, PPO, PKD are useful when you view them as what they really are, which are conglomerations, or baskets of underlying counting stats converted into a single number, by giving them all varying weights and then comparing them to the hypothetical "replacement player". (Think of them like an Index, or ETF/Mutual fund in finance).
What part of this doesn't pass the smell test for you guys? Given the context, these results all make perfect sense to me.
| Player | Season | Team | Position | GP | TOI All | EVO | EVD | PPO | SHD | Take | Draw | Off | Def | Pens | GAR | WAR |
| Dylan Cozens | 22-23 | BUF | C | 81 | 1336.2 | 8.5 | -4.1 | 2.4 | -3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 10.9 | -7.3 | 1.8 | 5.4 | 0.9 |
| Rasmus Dahlin | 22-23 | BUF | D | 78 | 2010.6 | 7.7 | 4.9 | 6 | -0.3 | -2 | 1.2 | 13.7 | 4.6 | -0.8 | 17.5 | 3 |
| Zemgus Girgensons | 22-23 | BUF | L | 80 | 1038.2 | -6.7 | 5.1 | 0.1 | -1.8 | 1.1 | 0.6 | -6.6 | 3.3 | 1.6 | -1.6 | -0.3 |
| Jeff Skinner | 22-23 | BUF | L | 79 | 1374.4 | 19.6 | -5.9 | 2.3 | 0 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 21.9 | -5.9 | 3.4 | 19.5 | 3.3 |
| Owen Power | 22-23 | BUF | D | 79 | 1880.9 | 11.1 | -3 | -0.2 | -0.1 | 1.7 | 0 | 10.9 | -3.1 | 1.8 | 9.6 | 1.6 |
Cozens
8.5 EVO excellent at even strength offense
-4.1 EVD he wasn't coached to focus on the defensive side of the puck at all, he was told to play Run n' gun, all gas no brakes offense. No surprise that he had poor results here. Similar but not as extreme results as Tage and Skinner who played the same style/system but on a different line.
PPO 2.4, he was good on the PP. No surprise here
SHD -3.2, the Sabres had one of the worst PK in the league and Cozens played a lot of minutes on it. No surprise that he'd have a poor score here.
Dahlin. Excellent at everything besides the PK and taking penalties. He's been under the microscope of the Refs ever since Matthews neck chopped him and gets called for lots of phantom bull sh*t. He also plays with an edge and has a reputation for it.
Girgs, horrific offense, excellent at even strength D. Poor on the PK, because the Sabres have one of the worst PKs in the league and he plays a lot of minutes on it.
Skinner. Outrageous at even strength offense, horrific at even strength defense, good on the pp, doesn't play the pk, great at not taking penalties and great at drawing penalties.
Power. Excellent at even strength offense, struggled at even strength d, lack luster but not bad on the pp and pk. Great at not taking penalties which makes sense as he's not a physical player, didn't draw many penalties (Refs: "gotta earn those calls 'rook!" )
